BOB BALFE
Giants / Cubs Over 7.5
Carlos Zambrano has not pitched in over a month and really has lost his dominating stuff. One plus for Zambrano is that he can hit so it could help out our total. The Giants are a great home team and should tag Zambrano for a few easy runs. Madison Bumgarner has lost his last two starts and I expect tonight for both teams to put up enough to send this over the total. Take the Over.
Giants / Cubs Over 7.5
Carlos Zambrano has not pitched in over a month and really has lost his dominating stuff. One plus for Zambrano is that he can hit so it could help out our total. The Giants are a great home team and should tag Zambrano for a few easy runs. Madison Bumgarner has lost his last two starts and I expect tonight for both teams to put up enough to send this over the total. Take the Over.
Matt "Lillefty" Dennehy
Sunday 4-1 +5.2 units
On to Monday
1* ST Louis -1,5 runs +125
1* St Louis -135 over Cincinnati(7pm) - It is a tough call to make here going against a red hot Cincy team. I just have to realize that the Reds beat Pitt and the Cubs, so excitement should be tempered there. Leake is hitting that "rookie wall" . In his L9 starts Leake has allowed 36 ER in 53IP for a 6.11 ERA. This is the 1st of a few division changing series for STL and Cincy. Carp has dominated the reds not only this year, but in his career. Carpenter is 3-0 w/1.29 era this year and 10-3 w/1.96 ERA in his career vs the Reds. I like the team w/experience and the better pitcher on the mound. 2 months ago I would have said this game was a toss up. Now I believe the Cards are ready to take hold of this division.
2* Milwaukee/Arizona over 9(8pm) - Fresh off their pasting off the Astros, the Brewers get the next best thing to having extended batting practice, the D-Backs pitching staff. Kennedy, much like Leake for Cincy, has hit the wall. Before this year Kenedy had never pitched more than 119 IP in pro ball. He is now up to 133IP this year. In his L9 starts, he has allowed 36ER in 50.2 IP for a 6.39 era. Look for the Brewer bats to stay hot. Narveson is getting better(he can't help but get better after his 1st couple of starts), but he is just a 5th starter type that goes for 6 IP tops and allows 3 or 4 runs. These 2 bullpens are among the top 5 worst in MLB history. If we can get 3 inn out of each pen, this should hit double digits with ease.
1* Atlanta -130 over Houston(8pm) - This kid Minor is the real deal. He combined with David Price to form a lethal 1-2 combo at Vanderbilt. Atlanta didn't rush him too much and let him develop his pitches and he has had a fine year in the minors. Good off speed stuff will help him up here as long as he doesn't walk too many. Atlanta is playing well again off their big series with SF. Norris isn't vs ST Louis so that means he will get lit up. His home stats are horrible 1-4 w/6.10 era and 1-6 w/7.51 ERA at night.
STAN LISOWSKI
3* Tigers -105
There’s good value here at this price with the Tigers having their most profitable pitcher on the mound in Galarraga. Detroit is 37-22 at home overall and has won 31 of 43 games when hosting left-handed starters. Tampa Bay has lost 5 straight games and looked bad last night.
3* Tigers -105
There’s good value here at this price with the Tigers having their most profitable pitcher on the mound in Galarraga. Detroit is 37-22 at home overall and has won 31 of 43 games when hosting left-handed starters. Tampa Bay has lost 5 straight games and looked bad last night.
STAN LISOWSKI
3* Tigers -105
There’s good value here at this price with the Tigers having their most profitable pitcher on the mound in Galarraga. Detroit is 37-22 at home overall and has won 31 of 43 games when hosting left-handed starters. Tampa Bay has lost 5 straight games and looked bad last night.
3* Tigers -105
There’s good value here at this price with the Tigers having their most profitable pitcher on the mound in Galarraga. Detroit is 37-22 at home overall and has won 31 of 43 games when hosting left-handed starters. Tampa Bay has lost 5 straight games and looked bad last night.
FOXSHEETS
SUPER SITUATIONS
4 STAR
Favoring: TAMPA BAY on the money line.
Play Against - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (DETROIT) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL
(50-11 since 1997.) (82.0%,
The situation's record this season is: (8-2
Favoring: CINCINNATI on the money line.
Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CINCINNATI) - on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games
(42-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.6%,
The situation's record this season is: (6-2 +
Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO on the money line.
Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHICAGO CUBS) - after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs against opponent with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games
(62-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +40.4 units.
The situation's record this season is: (9-0 +9 units). THIS IS MY PERSONAL PLAY!!!!!
Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO on the money line.
Play Against - Road teams (CHICAGO CUBS) - after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs against opponent with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games
(77-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.6%,
The situation's record this season is: (10-2
Favoring: DETROIT on the money line.
Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (TAMPA BAY) - after 5 straight games where they had less than 10 hits, starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing
(39-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (57.4%,
The situation's record this season is: (3-8 -
Favoring: DETROIT on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a 1.5 run line (DETROIT) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL)
(44-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.8%,
The situation's record this season is: (7-3
SUPER SITUATIONS
4 STAR
Favoring: TAMPA BAY on the money line.
Play Against - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (DETROIT) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL
(50-11 since 1997.) (82.0%,
The situation's record this season is: (8-2
Favoring: CINCINNATI on the money line.
Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CINCINNATI) - on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games
(42-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.6%,
The situation's record this season is: (6-2 +
Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO on the money line.
Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHICAGO CUBS) - after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs against opponent with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games
(62-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +40.4 units.
The situation's record this season is: (9-0 +9 units). THIS IS MY PERSONAL PLAY!!!!!
Favoring: SAN FRANCISCO on the money line.
Play Against - Road teams (CHICAGO CUBS) - after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs against opponent with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games
(77-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.6%,
The situation's record this season is: (10-2
Favoring: DETROIT on the money line.
Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (TAMPA BAY) - after 5 straight games where they had less than 10 hits, starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing
(39-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (57.4%,
The situation's record this season is: (3-8 -
Favoring: DETROIT on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a 1.5 run line (DETROIT) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL)
(44-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.8%,
The situation's record this season is: (7-3
