wunderdog
Game: Cleveland at Tampa Bay (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland +115 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.5)
Something has to give in this one. The Rays have been lethal at home all season, but Cliff Lee has been lethal period. Lee has not produced back-to-back bad starts all season. He gave up six runs in his last start, and only three other times has he allowed four runs or more in a game this season. He has followed those three bad starts with a 3-0 mark and 2.04 ERA. On the season, Lee has won 87.5% of his decisions, so getting plus odds is too hard to ignore. Lee has allowed no runs in four road starts and two runs or less in eight of 12. When your 14-2, 12 games over .500, pitching for a team that is 34-60 otherwise, at plus odds, you have to see the value in this one. Cleveland gets the call here.
Game: Boston at Kansas City (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Kansas City -105 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.9)
The A’s are were on a 2-15 run when they were swept by the BoSox this weekend. Any team playing that bad is bound to make anyone look good. They also put the broom on Seattle - another team playing about as bad as it gets. Those two series sandwich a 1-8 run and now the Sox turn to the road where they have not fared well all season. Clay Bucholz looked like he was going to make a huge impact for the Sox after pitching a no-hitter last September and baffling AL hitters in his four starts. This season has been completely lost. He started poorly and has not recovered, and it has to be in his head now. He is pitching to a nearly six ERA - something he has never faced in his life. The Royals send Gil Meche to the mound who is earning the big salary the Royals spent especially lately, posting a 1.33 ERA in his last three. We'll back the Royals at home in this one.
Game: Minnesota at Seattle (10:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Minnesota -120 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
No one would believe that the Twins would be sitting in first place at this stage of the season after Santana departed for the Mets and Liriano sat out most of this season with recurring injuries, but here they are on top. The Twins are an amazing 30-9 outside a five game losing streak and are playing as well as anyone. The Mariners made a solid run last year, added Eric Bedard to put them over the top and suddenly they are the worst team in the AL. The losing on the road has been continuous and has now extended to home where they have dropped seven of eight. The Mariners are also 1-6 in Miguel Batista's last 22 starts, so the answer doesn't lie with a pitcher that has pitched to a 6.43 ERA on the season especially against a hot Twins’ team. The Twins take the opener
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Game: Cleveland at Tampa Bay (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland +115 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.5)
Something has to give in this one. The Rays have been lethal at home all season, but Cliff Lee has been lethal period. Lee has not produced back-to-back bad starts all season. He gave up six runs in his last start, and only three other times has he allowed four runs or more in a game this season. He has followed those three bad starts with a 3-0 mark and 2.04 ERA. On the season, Lee has won 87.5% of his decisions, so getting plus odds is too hard to ignore. Lee has allowed no runs in four road starts and two runs or less in eight of 12. When your 14-2, 12 games over .500, pitching for a team that is 34-60 otherwise, at plus odds, you have to see the value in this one. Cleveland gets the call here.
Game: Boston at Kansas City (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Kansas City -105 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.9)
The A’s are were on a 2-15 run when they were swept by the BoSox this weekend. Any team playing that bad is bound to make anyone look good. They also put the broom on Seattle - another team playing about as bad as it gets. Those two series sandwich a 1-8 run and now the Sox turn to the road where they have not fared well all season. Clay Bucholz looked like he was going to make a huge impact for the Sox after pitching a no-hitter last September and baffling AL hitters in his four starts. This season has been completely lost. He started poorly and has not recovered, and it has to be in his head now. He is pitching to a nearly six ERA - something he has never faced in his life. The Royals send Gil Meche to the mound who is earning the big salary the Royals spent especially lately, posting a 1.33 ERA in his last three. We'll back the Royals at home in this one.
Game: Minnesota at Seattle (10:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Minnesota -120 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
No one would believe that the Twins would be sitting in first place at this stage of the season after Santana departed for the Mets and Liriano sat out most of this season with recurring injuries, but here they are on top. The Twins are an amazing 30-9 outside a five game losing streak and are playing as well as anyone. The Mariners made a solid run last year, added Eric Bedard to put them over the top and suddenly they are the worst team in the AL. The losing on the road has been continuous and has now extended to home where they have dropped seven of eight. The Mariners are also 1-6 in Miguel Batista's last 22 starts, so the answer doesn't lie with a pitcher that has pitched to a 6.43 ERA on the season especially against a hot Twins’ team. The Twins take the opener
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The Duke's Sports
*Best Bet* Atlanta (-105) [Jurrjens over Cain] for 3 Units
Braves/Giants 10:15: Jair Jurrjens has been "lights out" on the road (1 ER over last 29 2/3 IP) and we'll look for him to go deep into this game to avoid much activity from the shaky Braves' bullpen. Moreover, the light hitting
Giants have shown a power outage (1 HR over last 10 games) and should continue their struggle manufacturing runs. The Giants are batting a measly .235 vs righties and should struggle vs Jurrjens. On the other hand, the Braves are batting a healthy .302 vs righties and should give Jurrjens some run support against Matt Cain. Cain sports a bloated 6.97 ERA in two starts vs Atlanta. And although Atlanta is clearly not the same time of yesteryear, and even more so without Chipper, Atlanta should deliver in this spot. The Giants sport the worst
home record in the majors at 20-34. Atlanta the call.
Minnesota (-125) [Perkins over Batista] for 2 Units
Twins/Mariners 10:10: Minnesota is 4-0 on the road in this price range and we'll ride that trend. The Twins, which are on a 7-2 overall run, sport a 23-7 run as a favorite, and won 7 of the last 10 in this series. The Twins are also 11-6 in game 1 of a series following a win while the mariners are just 4-10 in game 1 of a series after a win. We'll look for the Twins' lineup to jump on a struggling Miguel Batista who sports a whopping 9.45 ERA at home covering 8 starts. We'll jump on Perkins who should get the needed run support here. And Seattle controls an 11-22 mark vs lefties. Minnesota the call.
*Best Bet* Atlanta (-105) [Jurrjens over Cain] for 3 Units
Braves/Giants 10:15: Jair Jurrjens has been "lights out" on the road (1 ER over last 29 2/3 IP) and we'll look for him to go deep into this game to avoid much activity from the shaky Braves' bullpen. Moreover, the light hitting
Giants have shown a power outage (1 HR over last 10 games) and should continue their struggle manufacturing runs. The Giants are batting a measly .235 vs righties and should struggle vs Jurrjens. On the other hand, the Braves are batting a healthy .302 vs righties and should give Jurrjens some run support against Matt Cain. Cain sports a bloated 6.97 ERA in two starts vs Atlanta. And although Atlanta is clearly not the same time of yesteryear, and even more so without Chipper, Atlanta should deliver in this spot. The Giants sport the worst
home record in the majors at 20-34. Atlanta the call.
Minnesota (-125) [Perkins over Batista] for 2 Units
Twins/Mariners 10:10: Minnesota is 4-0 on the road in this price range and we'll ride that trend. The Twins, which are on a 7-2 overall run, sport a 23-7 run as a favorite, and won 7 of the last 10 in this series. The Twins are also 11-6 in game 1 of a series following a win while the mariners are just 4-10 in game 1 of a series after a win. We'll look for the Twins' lineup to jump on a struggling Miguel Batista who sports a whopping 9.45 ERA at home covering 8 starts. We'll jump on Perkins who should get the needed run support here. And Seattle controls an 11-22 mark vs lefties. Minnesota the call.
Ross Benjamin
Cleveland Tampa Bay
Event Date: 08/04/2008
Event Time: 07:10 PM EST
Play: Cleveland +110 (15*)
Comments: Cleveland (Lee) @ Tampa Bay (Garza)
The Cleveland starter Cliff Lee is a front runner for the American League Cy Young award and getting him as an underdog right now certainly translates to value. In 6 starts versus Tampa since 2005 Lee has posted an excellent 1.58 ERA. Lee is a perfect 11-0 in night games in 2008. Lee is also a profitable 9-3 in his team starts on the road this season posting a 2.69 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in the process. The Tampa starter Garza is 1-8 in his last 9 team starts versus a team with a less than .500 winning percentage. Cleveland is 4-0 versus the Rays in 2008 outscoring them by a cumulative score of 34-8. If the Rays have a chink in their armor it is versus left-handed pitching where they are hitting just .243 as a team on the year and a mere .210 in the last 10 games. Play on the Cleveland Indians as my MLB 15* Top Play Upset Special.
Cleveland Tampa Bay
Event Date: 08/04/2008
Event Time: 07:10 PM EST
Play: Cleveland +110 (15*)
Comments: Cleveland (Lee) @ Tampa Bay (Garza)
The Cleveland starter Cliff Lee is a front runner for the American League Cy Young award and getting him as an underdog right now certainly translates to value. In 6 starts versus Tampa since 2005 Lee has posted an excellent 1.58 ERA. Lee is a perfect 11-0 in night games in 2008. Lee is also a profitable 9-3 in his team starts on the road this season posting a 2.69 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in the process. The Tampa starter Garza is 1-8 in his last 9 team starts versus a team with a less than .500 winning percentage. Cleveland is 4-0 versus the Rays in 2008 outscoring them by a cumulative score of 34-8. If the Rays have a chink in their armor it is versus left-handed pitching where they are hitting just .243 as a team on the year and a mere .210 in the last 10 games. Play on the Cleveland Indians as my MLB 15* Top Play Upset Special.
Greg Shaker | MLB Money Line Double-Dime Bet
963 CLE (+118) BetUS vs 964 TAM
Analysis: MLB: Cleveland Indians at Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Indians (Lee/Garza) 118 | Unit Value: 2
Game Date: 8/4/2008
Note: Cliff Lee has had great success verses this Ray Squad. He has compiled a 1.57 ERA to win his last three outings against the Rays, including a six inning stint during a 5-0 Cleveland home win on July 11. Garza has not done well verses the Indians, going 0-2 with a 5.85 ERA in four career starts. On July 12 at Cleveland, he gave up seven earned runs and 11 hits, both season highs, in five innings of an 8-4 loss. Facing the lefty, puts Tampa Bay in their worst hitting posture, batting 20 points less this year and just .210 over the last 10 played. As well as the Rays are performing recently, they are over valued here and I will grab the nice odds..
Mon, 08/04/08 - 7:05 PMGreg Shaker | MLB RunLine Double-Dime Bet
954 CHC -1.5 (-105) BetUS vs 953 HOU
Analysis: MLB: Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs - Cubs -1.5 (Moehler/Dempster) -105 | Unit Value: 2
Game Date: 8/4/2008
Note: The Cubs Pitcher has been marvalous at home this year and is 10-1 with a 2.72 ERA in 13 home starts. He has thrown very well his last 2 outings on the road as well and has allowed just 2 earned runs over the last 21 innings. He is throwing well. The Cubs are hitting the ball right now very well, so Dempy should get nice run support. Chicago is an amazing 41-15 here at Wrigley and Houston is not so spiffy as travelers. Therefore, I am laying the 1.5 Runs again for this one.
963 CLE (+118) BetUS vs 964 TAM
Analysis: MLB: Cleveland Indians at Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Indians (Lee/Garza) 118 | Unit Value: 2
Game Date: 8/4/2008
Note: Cliff Lee has had great success verses this Ray Squad. He has compiled a 1.57 ERA to win his last three outings against the Rays, including a six inning stint during a 5-0 Cleveland home win on July 11. Garza has not done well verses the Indians, going 0-2 with a 5.85 ERA in four career starts. On July 12 at Cleveland, he gave up seven earned runs and 11 hits, both season highs, in five innings of an 8-4 loss. Facing the lefty, puts Tampa Bay in their worst hitting posture, batting 20 points less this year and just .210 over the last 10 played. As well as the Rays are performing recently, they are over valued here and I will grab the nice odds..
Mon, 08/04/08 - 7:05 PMGreg Shaker | MLB RunLine Double-Dime Bet
954 CHC -1.5 (-105) BetUS vs 953 HOU
Analysis: MLB: Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs - Cubs -1.5 (Moehler/Dempster) -105 | Unit Value: 2
Game Date: 8/4/2008
Note: The Cubs Pitcher has been marvalous at home this year and is 10-1 with a 2.72 ERA in 13 home starts. He has thrown very well his last 2 outings on the road as well and has allowed just 2 earned runs over the last 21 innings. He is throwing well. The Cubs are hitting the ball right now very well, so Dempy should get nice run support. Chicago is an amazing 41-15 here at Wrigley and Houston is not so spiffy as travelers. Therefore, I am laying the 1.5 Runs again for this one.
Gina
Monday, August 4, 2008 10:05 p.m. est.
Baltimore Orioles (53-57) at Los Angeles Angels (69-42)
(R) Dennis Sarfate (4-2) vs. (L) Joe Saunders (14-5)
Los Angeles Angels have won six of their last seven games at home and will send Joe Saunders to the hill. The lefty is 2-0 with a 3.26 ERA in his last three starts and the Angels have won Saunders' last four starts against the Orioles. Meanwhile, Baltimore is 1-4 in the last 5 meetings versus the Angels and has lost ten of the last 14 games played at Angel Stadium
Los Angeles Angels -210
Monday, August 4, 2008 10:05 p.m. est.
Baltimore Orioles (53-57) at Los Angeles Angels (69-42)
(R) Dennis Sarfate (4-2) vs. (L) Joe Saunders (14-5)
Los Angeles Angels have won six of their last seven games at home and will send Joe Saunders to the hill. The lefty is 2-0 with a 3.26 ERA in his last three starts and the Angels have won Saunders' last four starts against the Orioles. Meanwhile, Baltimore is 1-4 in the last 5 meetings versus the Angels and has lost ten of the last 14 games played at Angel Stadium
Los Angeles Angels -210
