Service Plays Monday 8/18/14

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DWAYNE BRYANT

Game Time: 7:05 pm ET

Sport: MLB

Rotation #904

Bet: PITTSBURGH PIRATES -110

List Santana & Worley

Amount: 2 Units (Regular-sized bet)

Only two things kept me from making a 3-Unit Max Bet on this play. One is the Pirates’ current five-game losing streak. I almost never bet against a streak like this. But I feel my work on this game is strong enough to warrant a normal-sized wager. Secondly, I’d like to see Pittsburgh’s bullpen in better current form. But the last five games have been on the road & I’m expecting a better effort from them at PNC Park tonight.

Now, as for why I made this bet:

Atlanta has lost their last EIGHT road games
Since the start of last season, Atlanta is 0-6 (-3.33 rpg) in their first road game following a 9+ game home standThis season, the Braves are 1-9 (-3.1 rpg) on the road against a righty whose WHIP is lower than 1.15 on the seasonSince April 20th, Ervin Santana owns a team record of 0-6 (-3 rpg) at -120 or less on the road following a Quality Start in his last outing
Since May 6th, Pittsburgh is 11-4 at home against a righty whose WHIP is 1.25 or less on the seasonVance Worley owns a team record of 6-1 this season if he struck out less than six hitters in his last start.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dr. Ed Meyer | MLB Total

dime bet – 906 WAS / 905 ARI – UNDER 7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BEN BURNS

10* MLB BLUE CHIP SUPER TOTAL!

Under 7.5 Cincinnati/St. Louis Cardinals

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chris James Sports

Braves +103
Reds +133
Nationals RL -103

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Td power call

Pittsburgh

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BOB BALFE

NFLX SELECTION
CLEVELAND BROWNS +2.5

This is a big year for RG3. Last season was a total bust and sometimes players that run his style never return to what they once were after an injury. This team is obviously going to be very careful with him in the preseason and both their top receivers are dinged up heading into the season. How would you as the Browns like to have Rex Grossman as a 3rd string QB. He might not be a quality NFL Starter, but as a backup in the final quarters its like having Manning on the field. Take the Browns.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Betting First Look with Marco D’Angelo

LA Angels ML

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Browns vs. Redskins Free Pick

WASHINGTON, D.C. (ATS Consultants) – NFL fans will get another opportunity to watch Johnny Manziel in live action tonight when the Redskins host the Browns at 8:00PM ET.
View NFL Preseason Odds

Mike Pettine says that he’ll name his Week 1 starting quarterback on Tuesday, which means tonight is the last chance that Manziel and Brian Hoyer will get to impress their head coach. Pettine said that offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, quarterbacks coach Dowell Loggains and general manager Ray Farmer will all have say in naming the quarterback, while owner Jimmy Haslam presumably will have his voice heard as well.
Manziel was solid in his NFL debut last week, completing 7-of-11 passes for 63 yards and also leading the Browns in rushing while adding 27 yards on six carries. Of course, Hoyer did nothing to lose his grip on the starting gig after completing 6-of-14 passes for 92 yards and no turnovers. Hoyer might not give the Browns an added runner under center but he’s been solid as a passer in camp and did go 3-0 as the starter last year before injuring his knee.
On the other side the Redskins will look to build off of their impressive 23-6 win over the Patriots in their preseason opener. Robert Griffin III only attempted four passes, completing two of them for 9 yards while Kirk Cousins was 9-of-13 for 103 yards and a touchdown. Rookie Lache Seastrunk also rushed 12 times for 63 yards while starter Alfred Morris added 27 yards on five carries.
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Redskins are a 2.5-point favorite over the Browns tonight while the over/under is currently sitting at 41.5 points. Even though the under hit in both of their preseason openers, we like the over 41.5 between the Browns and Redskins tonight.

2014 NFL Week 2 Preseason Free Pick: Browns/Redskins OVER 41.5

 

[CABBIE182]

Are Thy Saying The Under Here???

The Braves are 0-9 OU since May 18, 2004 as a dog when the total is under nine, vs a team that has lost at least their last three games and it is the first game of a series.

 

[safecracker]

Paul Leiner

100* Mets -130
50* Angels -125

Browns over 41.5
1000*

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Seattle @ PHILADELPHIA

Seattle -1½ +114 over PHILADELPHIA

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)

The Mariners have won 10 of 12. They‘ve also won six of their past seven with only loss over that span occurring against David Price. Roenis Elias has been pitching in the shadows of King Felix and Hisashi Iwakuma this entire year. His 4.14 ERA is one explanation for it. Digging deeper, his mediocre surface stats largely are the result of the 6.27 ERA and 1.71 WHIP he posted in July. Those marks were driven by an unfriendly 41% hit rate and 63% strand rate. However, Elias actually had an impressive 11.1 K’s/9 in July and the strikeouts have kept coming in August with 10 K’s/9, not to mention a 52% groundball rate and an elite 16% swing and miss rate. In fact, his swinging strike rate over the last month is the highest of any starter in MLB. Pitching for the red-hot Mariners against a Phillies team that has never seen him before, Elias is an unheralded young arm worth backing here.

Philadelphia has dropped five of six and they return home here after five games on the West Coast against the Angels and Giants. Jerome Williams is not a familiar name but this stiff has been around for quite some time. He’s 35-years-old and has pitched 840 innings at this level since he broke in with the Giants back in 2003. The Phillies are Williams’ third team this season. He was let go by both Houston and Texas. Over the past two seasons including this year, his dominant start/disaster start split shows that he's not succeeding as a starter and the splits back that up. As a starter Williams threw 139 innings since the start of last year and has posted a 5.06 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP. He posted similar results in 2012. His hr/f remains stubbornly high and this venue isn’t likely to change that. The odds of a step forward at this age are minimal but the odds of cashing in against him are not.


Atlanta @ PITTSBURGH

Atlanta +102 over PITTSBURGH

These two have identical records at 64-60 but if momentum and/or current form mean anything, one has to give the edge to the Braves. After struggling miserably over a two-week span that saw them lose 11 of 13 games, the Braves got off the mattress with a three-game sweep over the A’s this past weekend while outscoring them 15-8. The Braves defeated both Sonny Gray and Jon Lester the past two games and take a huge step down here against Vance Worley. Since being called up on June 21 to face the Cubbies, Worley has posted a 2.51 ERA over 10 starts. This a guy who spent the first three months of the year in the minors and that has bounced back and forth in the minors the past few seasons. In 14 starts in the minors over the past two seasons, Worley’s ERA was 4.02. For the Twins last year at the ML level, Worley was 1-5 with a 7.21 ERA in 10 starts in which he allowed 82 hits in 48.2 innings. The question now is how much of this newfound success can he actually sustain? Looking under his surface stats reveals that Worley is the exact same pitcher now as he’s always been with the difference being nothing but pure luck. A 25% line-drive rate matches his previous MLB LD rate. In other words, those hard hit balls are being hit right at people. He’s actually striking out fewer batters now than he was previously with just 43 in 68 innings. Worley’s 4% swing and miss rate to go along with his unsustainable 89% strand rate tells the story of a pitcher whose surface stats are a complete mirage and who is at the mercy of his defense and strand rate. We’re selling high on Vance Worley’s low ERA.

The Pirates have lost five in a row at this crucial time and they have their two biggest series of the year on deck against Milwaukee and St. Louis. Facing Earvin Santana is no picnic either. Santana has a BB/K split of 14/41 over his past six starts covering 40 innings. He now has 137 K’s in 150 innings and his elite swinging strike rate of 13% confirms he’s been dazzling almost the entire season. Santana’s xERA of 3.31 fully supports what he has accomplished this year making him and the Braves a great value play against that imposter Worley and the reeling Pirates.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Malinsky

Over Redskins/Browns

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NonStopSportsPicks

1* Browns/Redskins OVER 21, 1H, -115

Making a small play here. First of all, the Redskins weapons are getting heathly and coming back. RGIII should play enough to lead them down the field and score, and he's got a FEW big play weapons. And opposite, Browns are having a QB controversy, so it will be critical that BOTH QBs lead scoring drives down the field. The # is moving up, and some books have moved to 21.5 now. For this small play, that's okay with me (shop around if you can as 21 is a key #). Just too many ways this one gets over, and then we don't have to stress and OVER happening with a garbage TD late in the game. Just tryting to take the variables out, as much as possible.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Goodfella

MARINERS @ PHILLIES DOMINATOR

3* Seattle Mariners


BONUS MLB (2*) TOP PLAY

2* Kansas City Royals

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LineCatchers

The Reds dropped three games of a four-game set with the Rockies at Coors Field over the weekend which included Cincinnati blowing a four-run lead in the ninth inning of Sunday’s 10-9 loss in the opener of a doubleheader. Meanwhile the Cardinals continue their severn game home-stand coming off a 7-6 victory on Sunday over the Padres.

The Reds hand the baseball to righty Mike Leake tonight as he looks to bounce back after allowing 5 ER and 8 hits in just 5 IP last Wednesday against Boston. Leake is 5-5 in 13 road starts this season with a 3.66 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Opponents have hit .274 off Leake in those 13 road outings. In 11 career starts against the Cardinals, leake is 3-5 with a 4.85 ERA. Matt Holliday and Matt Adams are a combined 15-for-40 with 2 HR and 8 RBIs against Leake.

Opposing Leake will be recently acquired Justin Masterson, Masterson is 2-1 with a 6.00 ERA in three starts for the Cardinals and has struggled with his command all season long. He sports a 9-11 record with a 5.58 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over 22 starts in 2014. Masterson has given up at least 5 ER in 5 of his last 8 starts whilst issuing a staggering 23 walks in those 8 trips to the mound. The big righty has been rocked by left handed hitters this season to the sound of a .319 BAA and 1.83 WHIP.

It is fair to say that the Reds will be slightly bleary-eyed after not arriving at their hotel rooms in St. Louis until the early hours of Monday morning. I like the value on the OVER in this game, I foresee both teams being able to put up enough runs to end this game north of the 7.5 which the books are giving us.

Cincinnati Reds / St Louis Cardinals Over 7.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sheep

$1000 Washington Redskins -2

$1000 OVER 7 Baltimore Orioles/Chicago White Sox

 

[wilman]

Anyone have Stu Feiner"s NFL pick for tonight ? Thanks in Advance !!!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Diamond Dog Sports

MLB

Total

#905/906: Diamondbacks/Nationals: Under 7.0 (-105) 2.5*
Listed Pitchers: Nuno/Zimmerman

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Insurance Adjusters

MLB

3* Kansas City Royals -1.5 -105

3* Washington Nationals -1.5 -105

Bonus Play Seattle Mariners +105

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Maddux Sports

NFL

10* Cleveland Browns +2.5