STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB PITCHING REPORT
MONDAY, AUGUST 18TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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#901 CHICAGO CUBS @ #902 NY METS - 12:10 PM
•Cubs RH Kyle Hendricks (4-1, 1.73 ERA, WHIP: 1.008) - Hendricks posted his third straight victory after scattering six hits over 7 1/3 scoreless innings en route to a 3-0 triumph against Milwaukee on Tuesday. The 24-year-old Dartmouth product has allowed five runs on 28 hits in his last five outings (35 2/3 innings) after a rocky debut on July 10. Hendricks has permitted just two homers, but his nine walks leave a bit to be desired.
•Mets RH Bartolo Colon (11-10, 3.85 ERA, WHIP: 1.153) - After notching his 200th career victory on Aug. 8, Colon allowed two runs - one earned - and struck out eight in seven innings to take the loss versus Washington five days later. Speaking of hard-luck setbacks, the 41-year-old Dominican was handed that fate in his last meeting with the Cubs in 2013 -- falling to 0-2 in his career versus the franchise despite permitting only two runs in seven innings. Colon has yielded two runs or fewer in four of his last five outings.
--KEY STAT: COLON is 18-5 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was COLON 5.8, OPPONENT 3.0.
--COLON is 18-6 (+12.5 Units) against the money line after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was COLON 5.4, OPPONENT 2.9.
--COLON is 19-4 against the run line (+14.1 Units) versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was COLON 4.8, OPPONENT 3.7.
--COLON is 11-3 OVER (+8.2 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was COLON 6.1, OPPONENT 3.1.
#903 ATLANTA @ #904 PITTSBURGH - 7:05 PM
•Braves RH Ervin Santana (12-6, 3.66 ERA, WHIP: 1.260) - Santana beat the Dodgers on Wednesday, giving up two runs with nine strikeouts in six innings to improve to 7-1 in his past nine starts. He has struck out 41 in 40 innings – including back-to-back double-digit strikeout efforts – in his past six outings, posting a 2.70 ERA by allowing only 12 earned runs. Santana, who makes his 292nd career appearance, has never faced Pittsburgh.
--KEY STAT: SANTANA is 48-26 (+24.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANTANA 4.7, OPPONENT 3.9.
--SANTANA is 18-6 UNDER (+11.2 Units) in road games versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was SANTANA 4.0, OPPONENT 3.5.
•Pirates RH Vance Worley (5-2, 2.51 ERA, WHIP: 1.132) - Worley is 3-1 with a 1.62 ERA in his past five starts, but dropped his last outing Wednesday when he allowed five runs (three earned) in 5 1/3 innings at Detroit. He had surrendered two earned runs or less in five consecutive starts before the loss to the Tigers. Worley, who made 53 appearances with Philadelphia from 2010-12, is 1-2 with a 5.81 ERA in seven games (five starts) against Atlanta.
--KEY STAT: WORLEY is 21-5 (+15.4 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WORLEY 5.2, OPPONENT 3.6.
--WORLEY is 20-8 OVER (+11.4 Units) versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WORLEY 5.2, OPPONENT 4.3.
#905 ARIZONA @ #906 WASHINGTON - 7:05 PM
•Diamondbacks LH Vidal Nuno (2-8, 4.92 ERA, WHIP: 1.278) - Nuno bounced back from a shaky outing against Kansas City by allowing two runs over 5 2/3 innings against Cleveland on Wednesday. The 27-year-old is 0-3 with a 3.92 ERA in seven starts since being acquired from the Yankees for Brandon McCarthy on July 6. Nuno, who is making his first career appearance against Washington, has yielded 20 home runs in 117 total innings this season.
--KEY STAT: NUNO is 0-7 (-8.8 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was NUNO 3.1, OPPONENT 6.1.
--NUNO is 0-8 (-8.4 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was NUNO 2.6, OPPONENT 5.3.
•Nationals RH Jordan Zimmermann (8-5, 2.92 ERA, WHIP: 1.154) - Zimmermann has posted four straight quality starts, including Wednesday when he held the Mets to one unearned run over 6 1/3 innings. The 28-year-old entered the month with a 3.94 career in August, but is 2-0 with a 1.37 ERA in three starts this season. Paul Goldschmidt has four hits in nine at-bats against Zimmermann, who is 2-2 with a 3.62 ERA in five career starts against Arizona, including a rough outing on May 12 when he allowed five runs in 5 2/3 innings.
--KEY STAT: ZIMMERMANN is 38-13 (+19.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ZIMMERMANN 5.2, OPPONENT 3.1.
--ZIMMERMANN is 16-2 (+13.4 Units) against the money line versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ZIMMERMANN 6.2, OPPONENT 2.1.
--ZIMMERMANN is 49-21 (+20.9 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ZIMMERMANN 4.9, OPPONENT 3.2.
--ZIMMERMANN is 14-3 OVER (+11.1 Units) in home games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was ZIMMERMANN 5.8, OPPONENT 4.2.
--ZIMMERMANN is 13-3 OVER (+10.1 Units) in home games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ZIMMERMANN 5.9, OPPONENT 3.8.
#907 CINCINNATI @ #908 ST LOUIS - 8:15 PM
•Reds RH Mike Leake (9-11, 3.59 ERA, WHIP: 1.255) - Leake permitted five runs and eight hits in five innings of a 5-4 setback to Boston on Wednesday after losing to Miami 2-1. The 26-year-old Californian is 3-5 with a 4.85 ERA in 11 games against the Cardinals - 1-1, 1.29 this season, including a 4-0 victory in St. Louis on April 9 when he yielded four hits in eight innings. Matt Holliday (11-for-28, homer, three doubles, six RBIs) has enjoyed success against Leake, as has Matt Adams (4-for-12, homer, double, two RBIs).
--KEY STAT: LEAKE is 23-4 against the run line (+16.2 Units) as a road underdog when the run line price is -190 to +165 since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was LEAKE 5.3, OPPONENT 4.1.
•Cardinals RH Justin Masterson (6-7, 5.58 ERA, WHIP: 1.637) - Masterson allowed three hits and struck out three in seven shutout innings of a 5-2 victory at Miami on Wednesday to improve to 2-1 and lower his ERA from 11.25 to 6.00 in three outings with St. Louis. "(Wednesday) was just a great sign of the kind of pitcher he can be when he gets it all put together," Matheny told reporters about the Jamaican-born 29-year-old. "It couldn't have happened at a better time." Masterson is 3-2 with a 2.86 ERA in five starts against Cincinnati -- including a 5-2 victory May 29, 2013 in the last meeting -- while the Reds' active roster (10-for-56, one homer, four RBIs and 12 strikeouts) has struggled against him.
--KEY STAT: MASTERSON is 12-3 (+9.6 Units) against the money line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MASTERSON 5.1, OPPONENT 2.8.
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#909 LA ANGELS @ #910 BOSTON - 7:10 PM
•Angels LH C.J. Wilson (9-8, 4.71 ERA, WHIP: 1.400) - Wilson snapped a five-game winless streak in his last start, allowing two runs and seven hits over 6 2/3 innings against Philadelphia. The 33-year-old is on track for his fifth consecutive 30-start season with 22 after starting his career as a reliever. Pedroia is 9-for-21 with a homer against Wilson, who is 5-3 in 21 career appearances (nine starts) with a 2.70 ERA versus Boston.
--KEY STAT: WILSON is 30-13 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in road games versus an American League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 5.0, OPPONENT 3.1.
--WILSON is 8-0 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 7.8, OPPONENT 2.6.
--WILSON is 1-7 against the run line (-9.4 Units) in road games versus an American League team with they batting average of .265 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 3.4, OPPONENT 5.4.
--WILSON is 0-6 against the run line (-8.3 Units) in road games versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 2.5, OPPONENT 5.7.
--WILSON is 10-1 OVER (+9.2 Units) in road games versus an American League team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 7.0, OPPONENT 5.1.
--WILSON is 11-1 OVER (+10.2 Units) in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 7.8, OPPONENT 4.4.
--WILSON is 7-0 OVER (+7.1 Units) in road games against American League East opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILSON 5.7, OPPONENT 5.4.
•Red Sox RH Brandon Workman (1-6, 4.45 ERA, WHIP: 1.260) - Workman took the loss against the Angels in his last outing Aug. 9, surrendering Albert Pujols’ solo homer in the bottom of the 19th inning. The Texas native has dropped six consecutive decisions in seven outings since his lone victory versus Baltimore on June 10. Workman has yielded 54 hits over 62 2/3 innings this season while opponents are batting only .232 against him.
#911 KANSAS CITY @ #912 MINNESOTA - 8:10 PM
•Royals LH Jason Vargas (9-5, 3.27 ERA, WHIP: 1.207) - Vargas is coming off his best performance of the season, a three-hit shutout of Oakland that ended a three-start winless drought in which he failed to make it through six innings. It was the third start since undergoing an appendectomy for Vargas, who blanked the Twins on four hits over seven innings on July 2 in Minnesota. First baseman Joe Mauer has been a nemesis for Vargas, collecting 10 hits and six RBIs in 24 at-bats.
--KEY STAT: VARGAS is 14-26 against the run line (-19.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was VARGAS 4.3, OPPONENT 5.2.
•Twins RH Trevor May (0-1, 12.46 ERA, WHIP: 3.488) - May did not look ready for the bright lights in his major-league debut, lasting only two innings and giving up four runs while walking seven batters in a loss at Oakland on Aug. 9. He had a shaky outing in relief three days later in Houston and was charged with three runs (two earned) in 2 1/3 innings. May had 94 strikeouts in 98 1/3 innings at Triple-A Rochester, posting an 8-6 record and 2.84 ERA.
#913 BALTIMORE @ #914 CHI WHITE SOX - 8:10 PM
•Orioles RH Bud Norris (10-7, 3.75 ERA, WHIP: 1.258) - Norris recorded his second straight victory after allowing three runs on five hits in as many innings en route to an 11-3 win on Monday. The 29-year-old has struggled a bit on the road, splitting his 10 decisions while seeing his ERA jump nearly a full run (4.55). Norris has dropped both career decisions versus Chicago, yielding eight runs on 17 hits in 10 13 innings.
--KEY STAT: NORRIS is 11-4 (+7.5 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was NORRIS 4.9, OPPONENT 2.5.
--NORRIS is 12-4 (+10.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was NORRIS 5.5, OPPONENT 3.5.
•White Sox LH Chris Sale (10-2, 2.01 ERA, WHIP: 0.885) - Sale is winless in his last three starts and likely should have received a better fate after scattering four hits and striking out 12 over eight scoreless innings in a no-decision versus San Francisco on Tuesday. The 25-year-old also received a no-decision against Baltimore on June 23 after yielding two runs on a season-high 11 hits in six innings. Sale has dominated at home, posting a 7-2 mark while limiting the opposition to a .188 batting average.
--KEY STAT: SALE is 22-9 UNDER (+11.9 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SALE 3.0, OPPONENT 3.2.
#915 SEATTLE @ #916 PHILADELPHIA - 7:05 PM
•Mariners LH Roenis Elias (9-9, 4.14 ERA, WHIP: 1.255) - Elias was sent to Triple-A Tacoma following his last start in an effort to limit his innings, but the rookie is due back to make his first career appearance against Philadelphia. After struggling late in the first half, the 26-year-old has a 2.08 ERA and 26 strikeouts in his last four starts covering 21 2/3 innings. Elias allowed two runs on a season-low two hits over 5 2/3 innings in his last start Aug. 7 against the Chicago White Sox.
•Phillies RH Jerome Williams (0-0, 2.38 ERA, WHIP: 1.761) - Williams turned in a solid outing Tuesday in his Phillies debut while holding the Angels to two runs over 5 1/3 innings. The 32-year-old, who was claimed off waivers from Texas, has appeared in 29 games – including three starts – for the Astros and Rangers this season. Williams has gone 5-2 with a 3.58 ERA in 15 career games (seven starts) against the Mariners, including a 5.14 ERA in three relief appearances this season.
--KEY STAT: WILLIAMS is 0-6 (-9.0 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILLIAMS 1.8, OPPONENT 6.3.
--WILLIAMS is 0-7 (-10.2 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WILLIAMS 2.1, OPPONENT 6.6.
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