jeff benton
he is back from his week long vacation.....what are the chances things have changed for the better ???
Monday's Plays ...
15 DIME selection on the <b>NEW YORK JETS</b> minus the points over the Giants as Week 1 of the presaason ends at the new Meadowlands Stadium. As I publeish this play, the Jets are a solid 2½-point favorite here in Vegas but I see 3s popping up offshore (and I expect the number to be -3 across the board by kickoff). Note that if the best you can get is the Jets at -3 – obviourly a key number in football – I want you to buy the half-point down to 2½.
5 DIME selection on the <b>SAN DIEGO PADRES</b> over the Cubs at Wrigley Field. This is a pick-em game across the board, and you must list Kevin Correia as San Diego’s starting pitcher. If Correia does not start, this play is VOID!
<b>Jets</b>
Well aware of all the distractions the Jets are dealing with as the Derrelle Revis contract standoff drags on. But I’m also well aware that the balance of power in this rivalry has shifted heavily in the Jets’ favor. After a 9-7 regular season and a stunning journey to the AFC championship game in 2009, the Jets made a lot of noise in the offseason with such acquisaitions as RB LaDainian Tomlinson and WR Santonio Holmes.
Meanwhile, the Giants are coming off a very disappointing 8-8 campaign. After jumping out to a 5-0 start, Tom Coughlin’s troops completely fell apart, and the main problem was defense. After holding four of their first five oppoenents to 17 points or fewer (and an average of 14.2 ppg), the Giants got torched for 40 or more points in five of their final 11 games, giving up an average of 32.4 ppg.
The Giants made wholesale changes on defense to plug the leaks, but I highly doubt we’ll see any major strides in this preseason opener. On the flip side, the Jets led the NFL in scoring defense (14.8 ppg), total defense (252.3 ypg) and passing defense (153.7 ypg) last year. Yes, Revis had a lot to do with that, but he wouldn’t have played much (if at all) in this game if he were in camp anyway.
Finally, before making any preseason wager, you must first look at the quarterback rotations. No question the Giants have the edge under center when it comes to the starters (Eli Manning is better and more experienced than Mark Sanchez). However, backing up Sanchez are two veterans in Mark Brunell and Kellen Clemens (Clemens has been in the Jets’ system his entire career). Behind Manning are career backup Jim Sorgi (who held the clipboard for Peyton Manning for several years and is the main reason the Colts had a terrible preseason record over the past half decade) and Rhett Bomar.
That’s a HUGE advanrage for the Jets, especially when you consider this: Manning (and most of the Giants’ other starters) never plays more than two or three series in the preseason opener, while Jets coach Rex Ryan has said Sanchez and his starters will play well into the second quarter. Lastly, the Jets went 3-1 ATS in Ryan’s first preseason last August, while the Giants are 4-6-2 ATS over the past three summers (1-3 ATS last year). The Jets have also taken the last three preseason meetings in this rivalry (2-0-1 ATS).
<b>Padres</b>
Hate to sound like a broken record, but here we go again with the Padres being disrespected by the oddsmakers. How in the world can a team with the best record in the National League (69-47) – a team that just took two of three at San Francisco, which had been red hot – barely be favored against an opponent that’s 18 games under .500 and has lost 14 of 18 overall?
Seriously, you know how big of a discrepancy there is between the Padres and Cubs this year? San Diego has been the best money team all season and is currently up nearly 27 units of profit. The Cubs are dead last on the money list, with bettors down nearly 28 units. That means if you bet $100 on every single Padres game this season, you’d be up nearly $2,700. If you bet $100 on every single Chicago game, you’d be down nearly $2,800.
Now, I know there are some who believe San Diego is in a bad letdown spot here coming off that huge series against the Giants (who were nipping at the Padres’ heels and could’ve taken over first place in the N.L. West with a sweep). Frankly, that letdown possibility is the only reason this is a 5 Dime selection. Because all other factors point squarely in favor of San Diego.
The Padres have won six of their last seven games, allowing just 14 runs during this stretch. They’re also on insane runs of 21-5 against the N.L. Central and 23-7 against losing teams. Meanwhile, Chicago stole the final two games of a weekend series at the Cardinals (their archrivals) after previously losing 14 of 16 contests, including five of six at home. And while the Padres’ pitching staff continues to kill it, the Cubs have surrendered five runs or more in 12 of their last 18 games, including five of their last six. San Diego’s team ERA in its last 10 games: 2.12. Chicago’s team ERA in its last 10 contests: 5.08.
The Padres have the edge on the mound tonight, too, with Kevin Correia (4-1, 3.60 ERA last five starts) going up against Tom Gorzelanny (0-1, 5.59 ERA last three starts, all Cubs losses). And while San Diego is 14-8 when Correia pitches this year (6-3 on the road), Chicago is 6-11 behind Gorzelanny (3-6 at home). Throw in the fact that San Diego has won 12 of Correia’s last 15 road starts dating back more than a year, and this is a no-brainer!