Service Plays Monday 7/5/10

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MATT FARGO

Cleveland Indians vs. Texas Rangers (MLB) -
8:05 PM EDT Premium Play
9* Pick: Money Line: 181 Cleveland Indians
 
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Ben lee lost on Sunday with a "Pure Chalk" play on the Red Sox -$220/Orioles.

"Mr Chalk" likes another "Pure Chalk" play for Monday the Mariners -$220/Royals.

"Mr Chalk" is 53-37 -$880 for the 2010 MLB season.
 
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Hot pitchers
N/A

Cold pitchers
-- Millwood has an 8.84 RA in his last seven starts, but Orioles won his last three outings, scoring total of 25 runs. Oliver is 0-2, 5.25 as a Tiger.

Totals
-- Four of last five Giant games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Arizona home games stayed went over the total.
-- Under is 8-1-2 in last eleven Atlanta games.
-- Under is 10-3-1 in Reds' last fourteen road games.
-- Over is 10-4-1 in Marlins' last fifteen road games.
-- Five of last seven Detroit games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven White Sox home games stayed under total.
-- Six of last seven Tampa Bay home games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Cleveland games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Bronx road games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Kansas City road games stayed under the total.

Hot Teams
-- Braves won six of their last nine games. Phillies won five of their last six home contests.
-- Reds won ten of their last thirteen games. Mets are 14-3 in their last 17 home games.
-- Brewers are 9-5 in their last 14 games, 6-3 in last nine at home.
-- Dodgers won five of their last six games.
-- Detroit won 12 of its last 14 home games.
-- Angels are 12-3 in their last fifteen road games. White Sox won seven of their last eight home games.
-- Indians won six of their last eight games.
-- Tampa Bay won four of its last five games.
-- Rangers are 8-3 in their last eleven home games.
-- A's won seven of their last nine games. Bronx won four of its last five road games.
-- Mariners won five of their last six home games. Royals won three of their last four games overall.

Cold Teams
-- Giants lost eight of their last nine games, have to bounce back after the tough 15-inning loss Sunday. .
-- Cubs lost five of their last seven road games. Arizona is 6-12 in last 18 games.
-- Marlins lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Orioles lost 18 of their last 22 road games.
-- Red Sox are 5-7 in road series openers.
-- Rangers lost three of their last four games.
 
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INDIAN COWBOY

4 UNIT Chicago Cubs Under

The Cubs have just been miserable this year. They Cubs are usually bad, but they have been even worse this year it seems. They do have one bright spot and that is how well Gorzo is pitching. Although he is 2-5, he does have a 3.14 era and he has done a good job of replacing Carlos Zambrano who is indefinitely suspended. Gorzo has given up just one run in eight innings of work in two appearances. I expect him to continue to pitch strong for the Cubs on the road today as he seeks his third win and looks to stay in the rotation. In that same token, Ian Kennedy had a rare non-quality start in his last appearance in interleague play. Ian has lost his last three decisions which I believe will be a catalyst for him to do well today. Note, he gave up nine walks in his last game against TampaBay on the road and it was a tough interleague trip for him. Nevertheless, he still managed to pitch relatively well as he has pitched four straight unders and still has an era of 3.77. I look for him to bounce-back well here at home today as he has an incredible amount of rest from his last start on June 26th. He has likely worked out the kinks from that start as well. The Under is 9-2-5 in the Cubs last 16 road games when the total is set at this range and the Under is 4-1 in Kennedy's last five starts when the total is set at this range.
 
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MIKE LINEBACK

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays (MLB) -
7:10 PM EDT Premium Play
4* Pick: Money Line: -138 Tampa Bay Rays

Cleveland Indians vs. Texas Rangers (MLB) -
8:05 PM EDT Premium Play
4* Pick: Total: 10.5/-105 Over

Florida Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB) -
9:10 PM EDT Premium Play
4* Pick: Point Spread: -1.5/132 Los Angeles Dodgers
 

leave the gun . take the cannolis
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7/5 nsa
20 yanks-145
20 tb-155
20 reds+120
 

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Stephen Nover 100 dime play

Monday's Pick
100 Dime Release on the Arizona Diamondbacks and Kennedy over the Chicago Cubs and Gorzelanny. Note that both schedulad pitchers must start this game or else this selectiaon is null and void. As this play is releastd at 5:30 AM Eastern, the D'Backs are -120 both in Las Vegas and offshore. Be aware of the early starting time for this contest as it goes at 4:10 P.M. Eastern Monday.
DEAD. That word accurately depicts the Chicago Cubs right now.
The Cubs aren't hitting, morale is terrible and they are in a horrible travel spot for this game, traveling to the West Coast for a day game following a disappointing 2-5 homestand.
Getting away from the now unfriendly confines of Wrigley Field isn't going to help the Cubs either. They have lost nine of their last 14 on the road.
Chicago' offense has been just brutal. The Cubs have scored three runs or fewer in their last seven games. They are battang .205 during this span. Making this even worse, is that the wind was blowing out at Wrigley Field twice during the past three days. The Reds took advantage of that to score 26 runs against the Cubs in those two games.
The Cubs are hoping southpaw Tom Gorzelanny can turn things around in this matchup. I wouldn't count on that. The Diamondbacks have had an extremely disappointing season, too, but they are semi-respectaable at home at 19-20 compared to 13-30 on the road. The Diamondbacks are 7-1 the past eight times they have been home favorites.
Arizona's best hitters are right-handed. The Diamondbacks have hit the fifth-most home runs in the majors.
Expect Gorzelanny to struggle against this right-handed power stacked lineup. The Cubs have lost in nine of Gorzelanny's last 11 starts.
This will be Arizona's fourth game under interim manager Kirk Gibson. So the unrest in Arizona is settling down. The Diamondbacks have the advanttge of being rested, having been at home since the start of the month.
The Cubs traditionally have struggled in the desert. They are 9-29 in their last 38 games at Arizona.
Arizona is pitching right-hander Ian Kennedy, who has a 2.41 ERA in six starts at Chase Field. Kennedy has been the Diamondbacks' most consistent pitcher this season. The Cubs have lost in 19 of their last 26 games when facing a right-handed starter.
The Diamondbacks have a terrible bullpen, but Kennedy usually can be counted on to go deep into games. He'll also be pitching on extra rest, having last pitched on June 26.
 

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NOVER

100 Dime Release on the Arizona Diamondbacks and Kennedy over the Chicago Cubs and Gorzelanny. Note that both schedulad pitchers must start this game or else this selectiaon is null and void. As this play is releastd at 5:30 AM Eastern, the D'Backs are -120 both in Las Vegas and offshore. Be aware of the early starting time for this contest as it goes at 4:10 P.M. Eastern Monday.
 

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John Ryan

Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Boston Red Sox

5* graded play on Boston as they take on the Rays set to start at 7:10 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Red Sox will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 58-17 making 33.2 units sine 2004. Play against all dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start and is a poor defensive catchers allowing 0.85 + SB's/game on the season. Boston is 7-1 (+7.5 Units) against the money line in road games versus poor fielding teams turning 0.8 or less DP's/game this season. Rays starter Garza is just 1-7 (-9.2 Units) against the money line versus poor baserunning teams averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Boston is 42-11 (+28.4 Units) against the money line after 5 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. Matsuzaka is pitching very well and had a near no hitter in Philadelphia on 5/22. Since that start he has not allowed more than 3 ER. With Rays offense struggling more and more of late and we strongly believe Matsuzaka will dominate them from start to finish. Take the Red Sox.
 

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