Service Plays Monday 6/30/14

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Rays, Yankees open 3-game set Monday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox


TAMPA BAY RAYS (35-49) at NEW YORK YANKEES (41-39)


First pitch: Monday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: New York -110, Tampa Bay +100, Total: 8

The surging Rays travel to the Bronx to start a three-game set against the slumping Yankees on Monday night.

Tampa Bay has been having one of the most disappointing seasons of any team in baseball, currently sitting 10 games back in the AL East standings while holding the worst record in the American League. The Rays have played much better lately though, rattling off seven wins in their past 11 attempts; including 4-of-5 coming into this contest. Their recent four-game set against the Orioles went well, and their big 12-7 victory on Sunday game them a series win. The offense broke out with 11 extra-base hits including five that left the park. OF Matt Joyce (.274 BA) was huge for Tampa Bay in the series as he went 7-for-12 with two doubles, two homers, 6 RBI and five runs over his three games played. New York has had some trouble lately, losing six of its past eight games, all coming against fellow AL East opponents. The Yankees lost the rubber match against the Red Sox on Sunday night by a score of 8-5, as they could not keep up with the 12 hits given up by their staff. SS Derek Jeter (.275 BA) recently celebrated his 40th birthday and is riding a five-game hitting streak where he has gone 7-for-18 with a home run and three RBI. This game will feature two youngsters on the mound, as 25-year-old RHP Chris Archer (4-5, 3.29 ERA) of the Rays goes up against 27-year-old RHP David Phelps (3-4, 4.35 ERA) for the Yankees. On the road, Tampa Bay has been horrible, going just 16-24 in away games this year, while New York is 18-20 in Yankee Stadium. The Rays have done well in this matchup over the past three seasons, holding a 26-18 edge against their division rivals while going 12-10 in the Bronx. Since becoming manager of the Yankees, Joe Girardi’s club has gone just 57-60 (.487) on Mondays while being 66-37 (.641) after having lost five or six of their past seven games. As far as injuries are concerned, the Rays continue to be without outfielders Wil Myers (wrist) and David DeJesus (hand) while SS Yunel Escobar (shoulder) is day-to-day. The Yankees come into this contest with no injuries to their offense.

Chris Archer earned himself a nice contract extension earlier this year and has piggy-backed on his success from last year when he put up a solid 3.22 ERA over 23 starts. He has improved his strikeout rate this year, bringing it up to 8.3 K/9, but has also lost some control while walking 3.5 batters per nine innings; up from 2.7 BB/9 last year. Another impressive stat from this year’s campaign has been his miniscule 0.29 HR/9 that he has allowed so far over 93 innings on the mound. Archer has allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his past eight outings, but did not do too well in his last start, going seven innings while giving up five runs (4 ER) on seven hits and two walks with seven strikeouts. He’s been amazing against the Yankees over his short career, going 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA and 0.63 WHIP, and has an 18:3 K-to-BB ratio in that time (28.2 IP). OF Jacoby Ellsbury has been great against the youngster, going 7-for-10 with a double and 2 RBI. On the other hand, OF Ichiro Suzuki is only 1-for-10 with two strikeouts in the matchup. The Rays’ bullpen is not what it used to be, as the group is 13-14 with a 3.97 ERA, and is 15-for-22 (68%) in save chances. Grant Balfour has lost his closer role and right now Tampa Bay is putting out pitchers based on situation while Joel Peralta (3.97 ERA, 1 save), Jake McGee (1.27 ERA, 3 saves) and Juan Oviedo (2.57 ERA, 1 save) are all getting looks in the ninth.

David Phelps began the year in a battle for the fifth rotation spot, but was relegated to the bullpen after being beat out by Michael Pineda. With injuries to the staff, Phelps has now started 10 games for the Yankees, putting up a 4.45 ERA and 1.41 WHIP as a starter (58.2 IP). His strikeout rate dropped dramatically when he moved back into the rotation, going from 12.3 K/9 in 11.2 relief inning to 7.4 K/9 as starter. In his last start, Phelps did not do well, getting blasted for six runs on eight hits and one walk over five innings, but he did record seven strikeouts as he earned a no-decision against the Blue Jays. He’s now faced the Rays four times as a starter, going 2-0 (3-1 team record) with a 2.82 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, as he has earned his two victories in each of his past two outings against them. Ben Zobrist has had no issues against Phelps, as he is 5-for-12 with two doubles and 2 RBI. Meanwhile, OF Desmond Jennings and 3B Evan Longoria have combined to go 0-for-13 with two strikeouts in their careers against him. The Yanks bullpen is 10-13 this season with a 3.96 ERA while converting 25-of-36 (69%) saves. David Robertson (3.08 ERA, 18 saves) has blown two saves this year while putting up an impressive 47 strikeouts in just 26.1 innings of work (16.1 K/9).
 

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MLB

'Straight A's'

Baseball fans, as well as those focused on baseball betting, will be abuzz with excitement come Monday night when Oakland Athletics visit Comerica Park for a three-game series with Detroit Tigers. A's 51-30 plating a league best 5.16 runs/game along with it's second best pitching staff sporting a 3.16 ERA are good in every conceivable situation. They're 24-15 at home, 27-15 on the road, 24-15 against .500 or better teams, 35-22 against right-handed starters, 16-8 against southpaws. A's will be tested by Tigers who have turned things around of late posting an 8-2 stretch crossing 5.8 per/game behind the bats of Kinsler (3 HR, 11 RBI), Martinez (3 HR, 7 RBI) and Cabrera (7 RBI). However, with the probable pitching matchups the lean is Athletics take 2-of-3 in MoTown. GM1 Kazmir is ridding a 6-1 June team start stretch, Sanchez enters with a 1-5 team start skid vs Oakland. GM2 Mills vs Porcello. The Tiger hurler off 15 innings of shutout ball sports a 12-1 TSR in July. GM3 Chavez vs Verlander. Despite Verlander's 8-4 team start stretch vs A's the hurler not overly sharp Tigers fall to 1-7 in game three's of a home series with the hurler.
 
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StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

MLB | TAMPA BAY at NY YANKEES
Play Against – All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) terrible offensive team – scoring <=4.2 runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 8 runs or more
163-96 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.9% | 57.4 units )
20-16 this year. ( 55.6% | 1.9 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends – FoxSheets

MLB | CLEVELAND at LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 42-17 (+23.1 Units) against the money line after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: LA DODGERS (4.4) , OPPONENT (3.0)
 
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Hondo

Hondo sunk right to the bottom Sunday with Hudson and the Giants, whose loss to the Reds caused the deficit to expand to 1,430 pateks.

Monday night: Mr. Aitch expects Duffy to outduel Pino in the “noire” in Minneapolis — 10 units on the Royals. Also, 10 on the Rangers to clip Ubaldo and the Birds.
 
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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Tampa Bay @ N.Y. YANKEES

Tampa Bay +102 over N.Y. YANKEES

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)

The Rays just went into Baltimore and took three of four this past weekend. They have won four of five and they scored five runs or more in all four of those victories. Tampa has scored five or more in five of its past six and they are certainly playable in New York with Chris Archer going, another thoroughbred from the Rays stable. Archer is just 4-5 but that’s only because of a lack of run support. He comes in with a solid 3.29 ERA, a 48% groundball rate, 86 K’s in 93 innings and a strong 11% swing and miss rate. Archer made good on his pedigree in the 2H of last year and is primed to repeat this year. He already owns one of the top heaters in the game and if he's able maintain some of those control gains, it's reasonable to project a second half of ample Ks and an ERA close to his 2.67 ERA in the second half of last season.

The Yanks remain overvalued and true fade material. They have lost six of eight while scoring one run or less in three of those six losses. David Phelps has a 5.64 ERA over his last five starts and over that stretch his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate was 37%/26%/37%. Phelps has worked both as a reliever (9 appearances) and out of the rotation (10 games started) and he’s not well suited for either. He has four pure quality starts in 10 tries. His upside is really limited by lack of a dominant pitch, as his fastball barely hits 90 mph. Phelps’ low swing and miss rate of 5% screams out that he’s not going to be striking out too many and therefore it’s very difficult to get out of the jams he invariably gets in. With eroding control, that's a recipe for failure. David Phelps should never be favored over Chris Archer.


L.A. Angels @ CHICAGO

L.A. Angels -1½ +120 over CHICAGO

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

Hector Noesi has appeared in 81 games since he appeared on the scene in 2011 with 32 of those coming as a starter. His ERA year by year including this year: 4.47, 5.82, 6.59, 5.07 and 4.94. That translates into a career ERA of 5.41 and 36 of Noesi’s appearances occurred when he was a Mariner pitching half his games in an extreme pitcher’s park. Noesi’s career groundball/line-drive/fly-ball is 38%/22%/40% and that is exactly the same as he’s posted this year in 11 starts. In his 32 career starts, he has seven pure quality one’s. Noesi also took abuse at Tacoma (5.83 ERA) last year, which indicates that his promotions were not merit-based. We've seen worse base skills but he needs some extra fastball juice or a more of a groundball lean to take the next step. That’s never happened and we're not optimistic that it will happen. At U.S. Cellular, Noesi is 1-3 with a 5.54 ERA, an xERA of 5.60, a 1.46 WHIP and an oppBA of .308 in 39 innings. He’ll now face one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors.

Garrett Richards has made some significant gains in 2014 and the reason for them can be partially found in his pitch mix. He is throwing two-seam fastballs 30% of the time in 2014 compared to just 7% of the time in 2013. It's a pitch that has limited batters to a .656 OPS and has induced groundballs at an elite 68% rate. Richards has 99 K’s in 101 innings to go along with a 2.76 ERA. Over his last five starts covering 35 innings, Richards’ has whiffed 37 while posting an ERA of 2.31. There are four reasons why this breakout has occurred. 1) Surging groundball rate raises floor and gives him unique skill; 2) 95-mph fastball, solid swing and miss lay foundation for more strikeouts; 3) consistent skills every outing 4) high quality start/disaster start split confirms he's very close to becoming an ace. The Halos should destroy the South Side in this game and nothing more needs to be said.


Pass on Monday's FIFA World Cup games.
 
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EZWINNERS


4 STAR SELECTION

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox

(968) Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-$130)

(Risking $520 to win $400) (Action)



3 STAR SELECTION

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

(953) New York Mets +$155

(Risking $300 to win $465) (Action)



3 STAR SELECTION

Game: Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles

(957) Texas Rangers +$135

(Risking $300 to win $405) (Action)
 

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Chase Diamond

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves

10* Atlanta Braves -165

This game has the 37-45 Mets at the 44-38 Braves. Braves are off a huge 4 game sweep of the Phillies and now take on another bad team in the Mets. Braves are 7-3 last 10 and should have no problem with the Mets tonight. We have the better pitcher in Alex Wood who is 6-6 with a 3.07 ERA and the better team tonight and the home field advantage. Take the Braves lay the juice for a 10* winner.
 

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Baseball Betting Report

Another week of baseball is in the books, which means it's time for our weekly betting update.

Hot

The Braves were struggling, but have now bounced back reeling off a smart 6-1 (+$483) week, pushing them out front in the NL East by a half game. Getting great work from the pitching staff the past seven games (2.29 RPG) a three game set at home against lowly Mets who have lost 3 of it's last 4 on the road platting just 2.7 runs/game, there is a shot at a series sweep.

Cincinnati Reds sweeping a four game set at AT&T park have won 6-of-7 on this current road swing stuffing +$609 into betting accounts. Reds complete their road swing with three in San Diego

In the junior circuit, Oakland continued it's winning ways with a 4-1 (+$270) week to earn top spot in the Majors at 51-30 (.630) percentage points ahead of Milwaukee at 51-33 (.607). A's start the week in Detroit which has reeled off an 8-2 stretch crossing 5.4 per/game behind the bats of Kinsler (3 HR, 11 RBI), Martinez (3 HR, 7 RBI) and Cabrera (7 RBI).

Cold

Minnesota outscored 32-19 in losing 5-of-6 (-$391) at LAA and Texas return to Target Field for three against division foe Kansas City Royals who managed a six game split this past week (-$91)

Giants continue to flounder going 1-6 (-$632) this past week outscored 33-12. Overall the Giant funk has reached 4-15 (-$1468) with the club crossing 3.05 per/game, the hurlers giving up 5.00 per/contest. A trip to St. Louis could be the answer at reversing the skid as Cardinals are off a 1-3 (-$415) weekend at L.A. outscored 17-4.

Colorado which went 2-5 (-$254) the past seven days are in the running with Giants for the worst team in baseball as Rockies are now on a 2-11 (-$858) skid thanks in large part to a pitching staff that has given up a whopping 6.85 runs/game (8-3-2 O/U) over the thirteen game span.

O/U

Braves giving up just 2.29 runs/game this past week posted a 1-6 O/U mark with Houston the next best 'Under' play at 1-5 O/U. Colorado pitching staff crushed for 5.3 RPG this past week were 5-1 to the 'Over'.

Noteworthy seasonal situation trends:

Best 'Over' Situation

LAA 5-0 at home off 1 run loss
Colorado 25-14-4 on the road
Milwaukee 12-1 opening a road series
Dodgers 25-14-3 at home


Best 'Under' Situation

Atlanta 9-1 off a 1 run loss (6-0 home)
Dodgers 7-0 away off 1 run loss
Pittsburgh 5-0-1 away off 1 run loss
San Diego 12-1-2 vs lefties
Dodgers 25-16-1 away

Best/Worst Opening a Series
Pittsburgh 10-3 at home
Colorado 4-10 on the road
Arizona 5-10 home
Boston 2-12 away

Best/Worst after One Run Loss
Milwaukee 8-1
White Sox 1-11

Worst after One Run Win
Colorado (1-10), Atros (2-8)

Best/Worst after being blanked
A' (3-0), Cinci (6-1)
Texas (1-3), Arizona (1-6)

Best/Worst vs Left-Handed starter
LAA (11-5) at home
Cleveland 3-13 on the road

Best/Worst Interleague
A's (7-1), San Fran (6-0 home)
Philadelphia (0-4 home), Twins (1-4 home)
 

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Diamond Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Twins are 10-0 since June 12, 2011 at home after a win in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings and they allowed at least three hits for a net profit of $1071.


PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- When Jordan Zimmermann starts the Nationals are 11-0 since July 18, 2012 as a 150+ favorite after his team won the last time he started as a 120+ favorite for a net profit of $1100.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Dodgers are 1-10-1 OU since July 08, 2011 as a favorite after a 5+ run win and it is the first game of a series.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Rockies are 0-11 since August 14, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Orioles are 19-2 since July 14, 2012 at home after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $1745.
 
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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals
Time: Monday 06/30 7:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Washington -1.5 (+100)

The Colorado Rockies have always had a decided advantage when playing at home. This year certainly has been no exception. The Rockies own a 16-27 record on the road, while they have played better than .500 ball at home this season. The difference is the hitting. The Rockies produce an amazing 6.3 runs per game at home, but have fallen flat on the road where they dip to 3.8 runs per game. They will have their hands full tonight with Jordan Zimmermann who has regained his form from a year ago. Zimmermann has allowed just 5 total runs in his last five starts, while pitching to an ERA of 1.18. He has allowed just 23 hits and 5 walks in 38 innings of work. Washington has been coming up big at home where in their last 12 wins at home, 10 of them have come by 2 runs or more. Play Washington on the runline.
 
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ADVANCED SPORTS INVESTMENTS

SOCCER
PERRY’S SELECTIONS
FIFA WORLD CUP
12:00pm Nigeria @ France -200
4:00pm Algeria @ Germany – Over 3 -105
 

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