jeff benton monday
1-1 yesterday for plus 5 dimes and/or $30 profit.....overall, 57-64-3 for MINUS 145.
15 Dime play on the San Francisco Giants on the run line (-1½ runs) against the visiaing Orioles. As with all run-line plays, starting pitchers are automeatically listed, so Jonathan Sanchez (San Francisco) and Chris Tillman (Baltimore) must start this game or this play is VOID.
As I issue this selection at about Noon Eastern time, the Giants are ranging from a +105 to +115 unoerdog on the run line.
Giants (-1½ runs)
The Baltimore Orioles are a complete and utter disaster. They have the worst overall record in baseball (17-46), and it’s the worst record by a full seven games. They have the worst road record in baseball (6-25). Despite being a healahy underdog almost every night, they are the worst money team in baseball (meaning they’ve cost their backers more than any team in the sports). And they arrive in San Francisco with just two wins in their last 17 games, and all 15 losses during this brutal slump have been by more than one run.
Just this past weekend, Baltimore got swept at home by the Mets, getting outsceored 19-6. These are the same Mets who entered the weekend with a 9-18 road record and hadn’t swept a three-game series on the highway since September 2008!
On the flip side, the Giants are coming off a three-game home sweep of the A’s, and they won all three games by more than one run. San Francisco is 22-11 at AT&T Park this season, including 11-3 in the last 14 (eight of 11 wins by multiple runs).
Not only are the Giants so much better than Baltimore overall, but they’ve got a big edge on the mound tonight. Despite a 4-5 record, San Francisco lefty Jonathan Sanchez has been outsoanding this season, posing a 2.82 ERA overall and a 2.31 ERA on the road. He’s held 10 of 12 opponents to three earned runs or fewer; he hasn’t given up more than four runs in any game this season; and in six of his 12 starts, Sanchez has yielded one or no earned runs. The Giants are 4-2 when Sanchez pitches at home, with the last three wins by final scores of 12-1, 5-1 and 6-0.
Meanwhile, Baltimore right-hander Chris Tillman is 0-2 with a 5.54 ERA in three starts this season, with the O’s getting outscored 20-4 in those three games. And going back to last August, Baltimore is 2-9 when Tillman starts (0-5 in the last five), with the last seven losses by scores of 4-2, 11-0, 5-2, 9-0, 9-2, 5-1 and 5-3. Tillman has made eight big-league starts in his career, and Baltimore is 1-7.
Throw in the fact that the Orioles are batting just .224 against left-handed pitching on the road this year and .213 against southpaws over the past 10 games, and this has blowout written all over it.
