Service Plays Monday 6/14/10

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ugk

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PICKS FOR KICKS

Monday’s Best World Cup Bets

Denmark (-181) vs. Netherlands (+645)

The overriding theme so far in the World Cup has been low-scoring matches. Outside of Germany’s slaughtering of Australia, there hasn’t been a full-time over bet cashed in the tournament’s first three days.

But the Dutch are known for their offensive firepower and a brand of “total football” when defenders can sometimes be mistaken for forwards. The Netherlands is one of the few teams in the tournament who can lose a player the caliber of Arjen Robben (out with a sore hamstring) and not miss a beat.

The Dutch haven’t dropped an international match in their last 12 times on the pitch and boast wins over Mexico, Ghana and the United States in the past few months.

The prospects aren’t as bright for the Danes. Denmark lost to South Africa and Australia in its last two pre-tournament matches and is dealing with injuries to top striker Nicklas Bendtner and talented defender Simon Kjaer.

Worse still, the Danes have been fighting a flu bug the last few weeks. Illness forced manager Morten Olsen to miss practice and press conferences this week.

Pick: Netherlands on the spread (-1, -110)


Italy (+122) vs. Paraguay (+296)

Skepticism surrounds the defending champion heading into its first match of the World Cup. Critics point out Italy is relying on stars past their prime (Fabio Cannavaro?) and won’t be able to keep up with the younger legs of opponents of this year’s tournament.

The injury to creative midfielder Andrea Pirlo is a huge blow. He was a major part of the Azzuri’s World Cup run in 2006 and his playmaking skills can’t be replaced.

Coach Marcello Lippi, who guided Italy to the World Cup title in 2006, is being heavily second guessed with his use of forwards. Media members pressed him on why Antonio Di Natale, perceived as Italy’s best forward, wasn’t playing with the first-string group in practice this week.

''If you don't understand the lineup you should change your trade and give up being journalists,” Lippi told the reporters. “If you don't understand the kind of lineup I am using, you better change jobs. Come on, what excuse do you have?”

The strategy seems apparent. Tread lightly with Paraguay and look for wins against its other two group opponents. La Albirroja are serious customers. They beat Brazil and Argentina in World Cup qualifiers and possess a talented group of forwards.

Pick: Draw (+215)
 

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FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME

100* Play St. Louis (-280) over Seattle
Seattle has lost 8 of the last 10 games and they have also lost 17 of the last 20 road games as an underdog of +100 or higher. St. Louis pitcher, Adam Wainwright has won 9 of the last 11 games as a favorite of -200 or higher and he is 5-0 in home games this season with an ERA of 1.62.

50* Play San Francisco (-185) over Baltimore
Baltimore has lost 15 of the last 17 games and they have also lost 18 of the last 21 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs. Baltimore has lost 25 of the last 31 road games as an underdog of +100 or higher and pitcher, Chris Tillman has lost 7 of the last 8 road games.

Monday World Cup Soccer

50* Play Japan (+1/2 goal) over Cameroon

50* Play Paraguay/Italy UNDER 2 Goals
 

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The Joker's Bet of the Day:

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.53 in Valur v Selfoss
 

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MIKE HOOK
BURIED TREASURE
1 DIME Over 10 Brewers/Angels
 

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SPORTS WAGERS

Italy +1.25 over Paraguay

The defending champs offer very good value here, as pundits may be giving Paraguay too much credit as a result. Yes, Paraguay is good and they have been in fine form while Italy has not, yet the Italians have a great shot at winning this match. Italy offers too much experience as one of the oldest teams in the tournament and when I mention experience I mean it in a good way. Italy is old on average but when push comes to shove they will prevail, as they simply know how to win. Paraguay has a very good chance for second place in the group and I think that is their goal entering the tournament, therefore look more towards the next two matches. Italy understands the importance of the first match and with an opening win should see them through to the round of 16, as their following matches do not offer too much of a threat. Paraguay has a talented attack and may cause few problems, however at the end it will be Italy's experience that sees them through this one. Play: Italy +1.25



Toronto +1.08 over SAN DIEGO

No doubt the Jays are scuffling and for some unexplainable reason they’re one of the few AL teams that have always had trouble vs the NL. However, Shaun Marcum is about as solid as they come and is without question one of the most undervalued and unrecognized pitchers in the game. Marcum was hit hard in his last two starts but they both came against the Rays. Prior to those two starts his ERA was 2.59 and only once in 11 starts did he allow more than three runs. Marcum seldom walks anyone, he’s always ahead in the count, his BAA is .241 and again, if you throw out two games against the Rays his BAA is .216. Meanwhile, Jon Garland skills are underwhelming at best. He’s going on just three days rest here after throwing less than 100 pitches in three straight starts. Garland throws so few pitches because every one of his pitches is hittable and they’re either hit right at someone or not. In a recent game against the Phillies, his pitching line looked like this: 7IP – 10 hits- 6ER. Seeing that line you would think he threw 115 pitches or so but not Garland. He threw 90 pitches, which tells us that the Phillies were swinging early and they weren’t missing and that’s the way he pitches to everyone. The Jays bring an all-or-nothing offense that leads the AL in HR, but is only 6th in AL scoring with a .224 BA on the road that is the league’s worst. However, this isn’t David Price, Matt Garza, John Lester or Ubaldo Jiminez and the Padres offense is worse. Marcum plus a tag here is about as sweet as it gets. Play: Toronto +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
 

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BOBBY MAXWELL
INTERLEAGUE SMART PLAY
200 UNIT Toronto Blue Jays w/ Marcum
 

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CHRIS JORDAN
INTERLEAGUE RUN LINE LOCK OF THE YEAR
1000* LA Angels -1 1/2 RL
 

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GILL ALEXANDER
DORKY WINNER
2* Best Bet TOR +100 over SDP.
 

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TOM FREESE
Toronto at San Diego
Play: San Diego

10* "NO BRAINER" PLAY ON SAN DIEGO -
 

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INSIDER SPORT REPORT
Premier Picks® For 06/14/10

4* St. Louis (Wainwright) -1.5 runs -130 over Seattle (French)
Range: -115 to -150

3* San Diego (Garland) -120 over Toronto (Marcum)
Range: -105 to -140
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COMPPICKS

MLB
Cardinals -1.5 (-130)
Angels -1.5 (+130)
Giants -1.5 (+110)

Comppick (free pick)
Brewers/Angels OVER 9.5
 

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Al Demarco

Monday's Plays
5 Dime play on Los Angeles and Saunders over Milwaukee and Wolf. Both scheduted pitchers must start or this play is null and void. As I release this selectieon at 11 AM Pacific, the Angels have surprisingly dropped to a -150 favorite here in Vegas and offshore.

5 Dime play on San Francisco and Sanchez - 1 1/2 Runs over Baltimore and Tillman. Again, both scheduled startdrs must go. As I release this play, the Giants are +105 on the Run Line.

I've been watching the Angels-Brewers line all morning. I originally considered a Run Line release, but I just don't have that much faith in Saunders pitching at home where he has struggled all season. With this price dropptng from -160, which is my cap, down to -150, I instead opted to play LA straight-up because I think the small added risk (7.5 dimes on a 5 dime wager) is the more prudent financial strategy rather than taking the plus money but being forced to lay 1 1/2 runs.

The Angels return home after a Freeway Series sweep of the Dodgers that capped an 11-3 road trip. They've won 15 of their last 19 overaell and now play 15 of their next 18 at home where they've won seven of nine.

LA has won six of Saunders last seven starts and he's personally 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA in his last seven outings including a seven-hit, one-run, complete game effort at Oakland in his last start.

Milwaukee has dropped 10 of its last 14 on the road and the Brewers continue to flounder offensively. They managed just three hits in Sunday's 7-2 home loss to Texas and are batting .194 collectively in their last eight games and .239 in their last 39, a stredch in which they've lost 21 times.

Wolf has been roughed up in his last two starts against the Cubs and Cards allowing 15 hits and 13 earned runs in 11.1 innings. He's 2-4 in six road starts this season with a 5.66 ERA.




The Orioles hit the road after a 2-7 homestand in which they scored a total of 25 runs and hit just two homers. They're 1-5 in Interleague play after getting swept this weekend by the Mets. They've dropped eight in a row on the road and 15 of their last 17 overall.

The Giants, fresh off a sweep of the A's at home, have won 12 of 17, incuding eight of 10 in San Fran.

Sanchez sports a 2.31 ERA in six home starts this season.

The Orioles have lost all three of Tillman's starts so far as he's allowed 18 hits, walked seven, and yielded nine runs (seven earned) in 13 innings worked.
 

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Foxsheets

Super Situations

MILWAUKEE at LA ANGELS

Play Against - Any team (LA ANGELS) with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.550 to 1.650 on the season-NL
196-130 since 1997. ( 60.1% | 68.0 units )
5-5 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )


Situational Power Trends

TORONTO at SAN DIEGO

SAN DIEGO is 19-5 (+15.3 Units) against the money line in Home games after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: SAN DIEGO (4.2) , OPPONENT (2.5)
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ugk

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JOEY SPIKES

"BANKROLL BUILDER"

Monday's Service Play-
25 Dime: STL RL -130
 

ugk

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WICKED GOOD WAGERS

MLB

St. Louis Cardinals -1.5
San Francisco Giants -1.5
 

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RICH GREEN
3* Giants J Sanchez -L -1.85
-----------------------------------
Silver Key Bonus Play
Padres J Garland -R -1.15
 

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