SPORTS WAGERS
NY Mets +1.19 over CINCINNATI
Oliver Perez is a pitcher that’s not worth getting excited over and there are plenty of concerns with him that include a lack of command but he has kept the damage to a minimum for the most part. Perez will face a line-up here that is not intimidating in the least and it’s worth noting that even though he’s having trouble finding the strike zone consistently, his BAA is just .244. What’s also worth noting is that the Reds offense is batting a collective .239, which is rather embarrassing when you consider they play half their games at a venue that inflates hits by 17% and homers by 26%. The Reds are 12-13 thus far but have three wins over Houston, two over the Cubs and two over the Marlins in which they allowed 14 runs but scored 16 and got very lucky in both of them. Rookie Mike Leake has very decent numbers but don’t be fooled. He’s faced the Cubbies, Astros and Pirates and when he faced the Dodgers he was rocked. Leake also has brutal command, as evidenced by his 15 walks and 18 K’s in 27 frames. At Great American Ballpark, a rookie pitcher with not so great stuff that is behind in the count too often is a disaster waiting to happen. Leake is really not that good at all and will very likely be exposed in a big way here. Play: NY Mets +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.06 over CLEVELAND
Brett Cecil is one of the most promising young pitchers in the game. He’s made two starts thus far and while he showed flashes of brilliance last year, he looks so much more poised, confident and downright nasty this year. Cecil has also faced two tough lineups in Boston and Tampa Bay. In 12.2 frames he’s walked just two and struck out 11. He has both an impressive BAA of .234 and a WHIP of 1.03. Cecil will most certainly enjoy facing the Indians a whole lot more. In fact, in two starts against the Tribe last year Cecil posted an ERA of 0.69 in 13 innings. The Jays took three out of four from the A’s and it’s also worth noting that they’re 6-3 on the road. Mitch Talbot also has decent numbers but a correction could be forthcoming. You see, Talbot has just seven K’s in 26.1 innings and that tells us that the ball has been put in play almost every batter. He’s also walked 11 batters, which has led to an unsustainable 86% strand rate. Mitch Talbot was dealt to the Indians from Tampa Bay and he was “the player to be named later” in the deal. The Rays office is pretty sharp in terms of assessing young pitching talent and it’s unlikely they made that big an error with Talbot. Jays offense is more dangerous, its pen is superior to the Indians and they have a big edge on the mound. Play: Toronto +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Vancouver +1.47 over CHICAGO
Well, we all saw what happened to the Pens in game two after they dominated game one. They looked too easy and they lost outright. A similar situation presents itself here in that the Canucks won in very impressive fashion but the difference is that Vancouver has proven to be a huge threat to win it all and they’ve been on a serious roll since game three of the Kings series. Furthermore, Roberto Luongo was extremely sharp last game and if this guy has his groove back, and it appears like he does, than the Canucks are even more of a threat. Antti Niemi is definitely back in goal after allowing five goals in game one and who knows if he’s fragile or not. What we do know is that the Canucks are a very determined club that has a great offense and a great goalie. In fact, the Canucks scored more goals than the Blackhawks during the regular season and were second only to the Caps. They allowed more goals but Luongo was not sharp for a good portion of the year but again, he looks very sharp right now. So, the Canucks can take a stranglehold on this series and they’re not satisfied with winning just one game. They know how dangerous the Blackhawks are and they might even play better tonight. The Canucks carry a ton of momentum and confidence into this contest and you really have to like their chances of winning. At this price, they’re even more appealing. Play: Vancouver +1.47 (Risking 2 units).