WUNDERDOG
1 OF 2 the other pick is a 5 unit play
Yesterday 3 - 0 on ice
Game: Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Pittsburgh +120 (moneyline)
The Pittsburgh Penguins threw up a lemon in game five vs. the Tampa Bay Lightning. There is no way to put a positive spin on an 8-2 beating they took on home ice. Good teams tend to get embarrassed by efforts like that and come back strong, so I'd expect nothing less from Pittsburgh in this one. The Penguins have not only won their first two on the road here, but they have now gone 10-2 in their last 12 road first round playoffs games, and have won seven of their last 10 games played in Tampa. Tampa Bay has been pretty poor in the quarterfinals round as they now stand in at just 2-6 in their last eight.
Pittsburgh rebounds and wins this one.
1 OF 2 the other pick is a 5 unit play
Yesterday 3 - 0 on ice
Game: Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Pittsburgh +120 (moneyline)
The Pittsburgh Penguins threw up a lemon in game five vs. the Tampa Bay Lightning. There is no way to put a positive spin on an 8-2 beating they took on home ice. Good teams tend to get embarrassed by efforts like that and come back strong, so I'd expect nothing less from Pittsburgh in this one. The Penguins have not only won their first two on the road here, but they have now gone 10-2 in their last 12 road first round playoffs games, and have won seven of their last 10 games played in Tampa. Tampa Bay has been pretty poor in the quarterfinals round as they now stand in at just 2-6 in their last eight.
Pittsburgh rebounds and wins this one.
GC MLB Dog Play
Monday 6* MLB 100% Totals System that averages over 13 runs per game + Triple System NBA Lead solid 4 game Power Pack. Free MLB Dog system below.
On Monday the Free MLB Dog system Play is on Arizona. Game 958 at 9:40 eastern. The Phillies apply to a road favorite system that is 14-26. What we want to do is play against road favorites off a road favored win vs an opponent off a road dog loss. If that road team scored 4 or less runs in their win they are just 2-9. The Philles come in off a sweep at San Diego while Arizona was swept by the Mets. The Phillies have C. Lee on the Mound so the Line will go up not down here. Lee has not pitched here and has a 4.38 road era so far this season. Arizona has I. Kennedy on the Mound tonight and he was solid here vs Philly vs last year allowing just 2 runs in 8 innings. Arizona has been good so far when taking on winning teams with 6 wins in 8 tries. They have hit left handers well to averaging over 5 runs per game against them. The Philles despite their recent wins have struggled at the plate hitting under .200 the past week. Look for Arizona to surprise Philadelphia and take game one of the series. On Monday a solid 4 game pack which features 3 major sports is led by a big 6* Rare totals system that has never lost and averages 13.2 runs per game. The NBA has 2 plays the lead one a Triple System Side play. I will also have another solid Bonus Play on the weekly sports radio talk show at 8:05 eastern. Listen online at 88.9 wsia.fm. For the free MLB play tonight take Arizona. GC
Monday 6* MLB 100% Totals System that averages over 13 runs per game + Triple System NBA Lead solid 4 game Power Pack. Free MLB Dog system below.
On Monday the Free MLB Dog system Play is on Arizona. Game 958 at 9:40 eastern. The Phillies apply to a road favorite system that is 14-26. What we want to do is play against road favorites off a road favored win vs an opponent off a road dog loss. If that road team scored 4 or less runs in their win they are just 2-9. The Philles come in off a sweep at San Diego while Arizona was swept by the Mets. The Phillies have C. Lee on the Mound so the Line will go up not down here. Lee has not pitched here and has a 4.38 road era so far this season. Arizona has I. Kennedy on the Mound tonight and he was solid here vs Philly vs last year allowing just 2 runs in 8 innings. Arizona has been good so far when taking on winning teams with 6 wins in 8 tries. They have hit left handers well to averaging over 5 runs per game against them. The Philles despite their recent wins have struggled at the plate hitting under .200 the past week. Look for Arizona to surprise Philadelphia and take game one of the series. On Monday a solid 4 game pack which features 3 major sports is led by a big 6* Rare totals system that has never lost and averages 13.2 runs per game. The NBA has 2 plays the lead one a Triple System Side play. I will also have another solid Bonus Play on the weekly sports radio talk show at 8:05 eastern. Listen online at 88.9 wsia.fm. For the free MLB play tonight take Arizona. GC
COMPS:
1. NSA(The Legend) MLB - Rockies over 7
2. Ray "The Playmaker" Bowden NHL - Lightning -145
3. VegasSI MLB - Cubs under 7
4. SportsAction365 NHL - Lightning -145
5. Gameday Network NHL - Lightning -145
6. William E. Stockton MLB - Padres +115
7. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino MLB - Athletics over 6.5
8. Lou Panelli NHL - Lightning over 5
9. Steve "Scoop" Kendall MLB - Phillies under 8
10. Vincent Pioli NHL - Lightning over 5
11. John Morrison MLB - Pirates under 8
12. Tony Campone NHL - Kings under 5
13. Chicago Sports Group NHL - Kings +115
14. Hollywood Sportsline NHL - Kings under 5
15. VIP Action MLB - Athletics over 6.5
16. South Beach Sports MLB - Rangers -150
17. Michigan Sports MLB - Marlins -140
18. NY Players Club MLB - Athletics +140
19. Charlies Sports MLB - Reds +110
20. Fred Callahan MLB - Yankees -195
1. NSA(The Legend) MLB - Rockies over 7
2. Ray "The Playmaker" Bowden NHL - Lightning -145
3. VegasSI MLB - Cubs under 7
4. SportsAction365 NHL - Lightning -145
5. Gameday Network NHL - Lightning -145
6. William E. Stockton MLB - Padres +115
7. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino MLB - Athletics over 6.5
8. Lou Panelli NHL - Lightning over 5
9. Steve "Scoop" Kendall MLB - Phillies under 8
10. Vincent Pioli NHL - Lightning over 5
11. John Morrison MLB - Pirates under 8
12. Tony Campone NHL - Kings under 5
13. Chicago Sports Group NHL - Kings +115
14. Hollywood Sportsline NHL - Kings under 5
15. VIP Action MLB - Athletics over 6.5
16. South Beach Sports MLB - Rangers -150
17. Michigan Sports MLB - Marlins -140
18. NY Players Club MLB - Athletics +140
19. Charlies Sports MLB - Reds +110
20. Fred Callahan MLB - Yankees -195
Ben Burns
Burns' 10* O/U MAIN EVENT! (75% YTD!)
I'm playing on Portland and Dallas to finish OVER the total. 10* "Main Event"
Burns' 10* PERSONAL FAVORITE (16-4 L20 MLB)
I'm playing on CHICAGO. Both teams lost yesterday. The Cubs were beaten by the Dodgers. The Rockies were beaten by Florida. 10 *
Burns' 10* Divisional O/U BEST BET!
I'm playing on San Antonio and Memphis to finish OVER the total. 10 *
Burns' Total ANNIHILATOR!
I'm playing on Oklahoma City and Denver to finish OVER the total. 9*
Burns' NHL ANNIHILATOR!
I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. 8*
Burns' 3-Game ULTIMATE Report!
I'm playing on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES. 9*
Burns' 3-Game ULTIMATE Report!
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. 9*
Burns' 3-Game ULTIMATE Report!
I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. 8*
Burns' 10* O/U MAIN EVENT! (75% YTD!)
I'm playing on Portland and Dallas to finish OVER the total. 10* "Main Event"
Burns' 10* PERSONAL FAVORITE (16-4 L20 MLB)
I'm playing on CHICAGO. Both teams lost yesterday. The Cubs were beaten by the Dodgers. The Rockies were beaten by Florida. 10 *
Burns' 10* Divisional O/U BEST BET!
I'm playing on San Antonio and Memphis to finish OVER the total. 10 *
Burns' Total ANNIHILATOR!
I'm playing on Oklahoma City and Denver to finish OVER the total. 9*
Burns' NHL ANNIHILATOR!
I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. 8*
Burns' 3-Game ULTIMATE Report!
I'm playing on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES. 9*
Burns' 3-Game ULTIMATE Report!
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. 9*
Burns' 3-Game ULTIMATE Report!
I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. 8*
Last edited by a moderator:
Accuscore
3* +SV Phillies -138
The Philadelphia Phillies are 8-2 on the road this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Arizona Diamondbacks who are 4-5 at home. The Phillies have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Phillies' starter Cliff Lee is forecasted to have a better game than Phillies' starter Ian Kennedy. Cliff Lee has a 58% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Ian Kennedy has a 51% chance of a QS. If Cliff Lee has a quality start the Phillies has a 77% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 7.9 and he has a 63% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Phillies win 71%. In Ian Kennedy quality starts the Diamondbacks win 49%. He has a 16% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 49% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Arizona Diamondbacks is Justin Upton who averaged 1.56 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 22% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Diamondbacks have a 45% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Philadelphia Phillies is Ryan Howard who averaged 2.43 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 42% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Phillies have a 81% chance of winning.
3* +SV Phillies -138
The Philadelphia Phillies are 8-2 on the road this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Arizona Diamondbacks who are 4-5 at home. The Phillies have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Phillies' starter Cliff Lee is forecasted to have a better game than Phillies' starter Ian Kennedy. Cliff Lee has a 58% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Ian Kennedy has a 51% chance of a QS. If Cliff Lee has a quality start the Phillies has a 77% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 7.9 and he has a 63% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Phillies win 71%. In Ian Kennedy quality starts the Diamondbacks win 49%. He has a 16% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 49% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Arizona Diamondbacks is Justin Upton who averaged 1.56 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 22% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Diamondbacks have a 45% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Philadelphia Phillies is Ryan Howard who averaged 2.43 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 42% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Phillies have a 81% chance of winning.
Dave Essler
958 ARI (+135) Bookmaker.com vs 957 PHI
Analysis: I can't pass up a home underdog that can hit like Arizona at home. Let's look at Lee first. He's had two very good outings, but against Washington and Houston. Against better hitting teams like Milwaukee and Atlanta he's not fared nearly as well. Arizona is in the top third of the league in runs scored against LHP as well as batting average, and is hitting .283 at home. Not saying Cliff Lee can't shut them down, but at this number and given his occasional vulnerability I have to make this bet.
This Phillies are hitting .192 over the course of the last week. Yes, they've been winning, but Kennedy CAN be as good or better than anyone the Padres threw out there. And if you look just at his numbers they can be deceiving, since his four starts have come against the Reds (twice), St. Louis, and Colorado, teams that can make anyone look bad. He's seen the Phillies before, and held Howard, Victorino, and Polanco to one hit in 14 at bats. Since those are both the table-setters and the big guy, I like Arizona's chance of keeping this a tighter game.
I know the D'backs played in New York and had far less distance to travel the Philadelphia, but it's probable that Kennedy has been waiting in Arizona, and since the D'backs won yesterday the trip was probably a little shorter mentally. I just can't wrap my arms around the Phillies, who simply haven't scored a ton of runs against anyone, all season.
I know typica’lly we like to pick on Arizona's bullpen, but in the last seven games (all on the road) they've posted a 1.19 ERA, and that was against mainly the Mets and the Reds. And I'd like to think the Phillies road ERA is over stated, since it's come against the Braves (when they were struggling at the plate), the Nationals, and the Padres.
Kennedy has been better at home AND is typically tougher on lefties than righties. Just too much value and too many way Arizona can win this game, and one way (Lee) the Phillies do. At +135 (or more) I can't overlook one of the best home teams in baseball.
Pick Made: Apr 24 2011 5:00PM PST
Dave Essler
951 LOS (+130) Bookmaker.com vs 952 FLA
Analysis: I know how well the Fish have been playing, but there schedule is also a but jaded in that they've played a bunch of games against the Braves (again, when the Braves weren't hitting), as well as Houston and Pittsburgh. They've more or less split games against better teams like the Rockies and the Phillies, now they face the red hot Dodgers.
Nolasco is not going to walk too many, and he'll allow a fair number of hits. (hence the decent WHIP). Against an aggressive team at the plate like the Dodgers, this is a matchup that's not as favorable, IMO. And he may be a little over priced off if his great outing last week, albeit against the Pirates. If the Dodgers hadn't seen him, I might not make this play, but they have (not TOO much) and they've all got a few hits. Enough to at least take a big underdog who's been hitting on the road. This is an improved Nolasco over last season, no doubt, but it't the same Ricky that was much worse in Florida and allowed 13 home runs in 64 innings in South Florida.
Jon Garland. He's not going to throw a no hitter (well, I suppose it's possible) but he IS going to keep teams in the game. The Marlins have seen quite a bit of him, and for the most part he's owned the Fish regulars (Ramirez, Bonafacio, Sanchez, and Coghlan) enough to where I don't see the Marlin onslaught. He's 3-0 against Florida and typically a much better pitcher earlier in the season than later.
The Dodger bullpen has bee very suspect since Kuo went on the DL, while the Marlin pen has been tremendous, which is what's keeping this from being a bigger play, period. At +130 with one of the hottest hitting teams against a fly-ball pitcher (Nolasco) who's already given up four more jacks this season, I see no other pla’y in this game.
Pick Made: Apr 24 2011 4:25PM PST
Dave Essler | MLB Money Line Mon, 04/25/11 - 10:05 PM *—
dime bet 960 SDP (+115) Bookmaker.com vs 959 ATL
Analysis: No chance of me laying money with Lowe, on the road, this year, against anyone. He's been very average and after the Braves totally went through their bullpen in San Francisco, if Atlanta is going to win HE needs to go deep. And even against the Padres, I'm not seeing it. Now when even San Diego has hit .402 in 127 at bats with seven homers off of him. Sorry. If I had balls I'd take the Padres RL because sooner or later they'll have ""one of those games" and Lo’we just might be the one to help.
Moseley is just someone the Braves haven't seen, and he's been a ground ball pitcher and in Petco we love that. He hasn't won a game, but he's had exactly one run of support in four games. Against Lowe, I think that changes.
And given that we like the Padres bullpen (and see how used the Braves has been) we simply have to hop in the home underdog here.
Pick Made: Apr 24 2011 5:12PM PST
958 ARI (+135) Bookmaker.com vs 957 PHI
Analysis: I can't pass up a home underdog that can hit like Arizona at home. Let's look at Lee first. He's had two very good outings, but against Washington and Houston. Against better hitting teams like Milwaukee and Atlanta he's not fared nearly as well. Arizona is in the top third of the league in runs scored against LHP as well as batting average, and is hitting .283 at home. Not saying Cliff Lee can't shut them down, but at this number and given his occasional vulnerability I have to make this bet.
This Phillies are hitting .192 over the course of the last week. Yes, they've been winning, but Kennedy CAN be as good or better than anyone the Padres threw out there. And if you look just at his numbers they can be deceiving, since his four starts have come against the Reds (twice), St. Louis, and Colorado, teams that can make anyone look bad. He's seen the Phillies before, and held Howard, Victorino, and Polanco to one hit in 14 at bats. Since those are both the table-setters and the big guy, I like Arizona's chance of keeping this a tighter game.
I know the D'backs played in New York and had far less distance to travel the Philadelphia, but it's probable that Kennedy has been waiting in Arizona, and since the D'backs won yesterday the trip was probably a little shorter mentally. I just can't wrap my arms around the Phillies, who simply haven't scored a ton of runs against anyone, all season.
I know typica’lly we like to pick on Arizona's bullpen, but in the last seven games (all on the road) they've posted a 1.19 ERA, and that was against mainly the Mets and the Reds. And I'd like to think the Phillies road ERA is over stated, since it's come against the Braves (when they were struggling at the plate), the Nationals, and the Padres.
Kennedy has been better at home AND is typically tougher on lefties than righties. Just too much value and too many way Arizona can win this game, and one way (Lee) the Phillies do. At +135 (or more) I can't overlook one of the best home teams in baseball.
Pick Made: Apr 24 2011 5:00PM PST
Dave Essler
951 LOS (+130) Bookmaker.com vs 952 FLA
Analysis: I know how well the Fish have been playing, but there schedule is also a but jaded in that they've played a bunch of games against the Braves (again, when the Braves weren't hitting), as well as Houston and Pittsburgh. They've more or less split games against better teams like the Rockies and the Phillies, now they face the red hot Dodgers.
Nolasco is not going to walk too many, and he'll allow a fair number of hits. (hence the decent WHIP). Against an aggressive team at the plate like the Dodgers, this is a matchup that's not as favorable, IMO. And he may be a little over priced off if his great outing last week, albeit against the Pirates. If the Dodgers hadn't seen him, I might not make this play, but they have (not TOO much) and they've all got a few hits. Enough to at least take a big underdog who's been hitting on the road. This is an improved Nolasco over last season, no doubt, but it't the same Ricky that was much worse in Florida and allowed 13 home runs in 64 innings in South Florida.
Jon Garland. He's not going to throw a no hitter (well, I suppose it's possible) but he IS going to keep teams in the game. The Marlins have seen quite a bit of him, and for the most part he's owned the Fish regulars (Ramirez, Bonafacio, Sanchez, and Coghlan) enough to where I don't see the Marlin onslaught. He's 3-0 against Florida and typically a much better pitcher earlier in the season than later.
The Dodger bullpen has bee very suspect since Kuo went on the DL, while the Marlin pen has been tremendous, which is what's keeping this from being a bigger play, period. At +130 with one of the hottest hitting teams against a fly-ball pitcher (Nolasco) who's already given up four more jacks this season, I see no other pla’y in this game.
Pick Made: Apr 24 2011 4:25PM PST
Dave Essler | MLB Money Line Mon, 04/25/11 - 10:05 PM *—
dime bet 960 SDP (+115) Bookmaker.com vs 959 ATL
Analysis: No chance of me laying money with Lowe, on the road, this year, against anyone. He's been very average and after the Braves totally went through their bullpen in San Francisco, if Atlanta is going to win HE needs to go deep. And even against the Padres, I'm not seeing it. Now when even San Diego has hit .402 in 127 at bats with seven homers off of him. Sorry. If I had balls I'd take the Padres RL because sooner or later they'll have ""one of those games" and Lo’we just might be the one to help.
Moseley is just someone the Braves haven't seen, and he's been a ground ball pitcher and in Petco we love that. He hasn't won a game, but he's had exactly one run of support in four games. Against Lowe, I think that changes.
And given that we like the Padres bullpen (and see how used the Braves has been) we simply have to hop in the home underdog here.
Pick Made: Apr 24 2011 5:12PM PST
