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| Indiana at Chicago |
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| Play: Single Dime Play on Under 179 |
| Score: Play #1 |
| Comments: NBA - 611 Indiana Pacers @ 612 Chicago Bulls Play #1 These two teams have faced each other this past Friday with the Pacers winning the game 91-79. It was a classic grind out battle between two elite defenses…. It was almost impossible to score near the basket as both teams scored only 32 and 30 points in the paint while there were few transition opportunities for both teams to score. The key reason for the Pacers’ win was the fact that they were incredible efficient @ mid/long range shots (long 2’s) because they also struggled to hit 3pts pointers w/ just 2-11. Obviously, the Pacers aren’t consistent enough to hit those “long 2’s” shots and they were held to just 71 points in the next day by the Grizzlies. However, note that the Pacers despite all those offensive struggles as of late are still defending @ elite level! On the other, the Bulls struggled to score vs. PHI in the last game! I was surprised by the fact that the game was a super slow paced contest – strange if we take in account that it was against the “run and gun” 76ers’ team. For this contest, I expect the game to be another classic half court battle. Both teams are struggling to hit outside shots (Paul George is really struggling as of late) while interior defenses will make things tough for the opp. to score down. My fair line for this contest is 175/176 points and so, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 611/612 Under 179 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes |
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| Minnesota at Memphis |
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| Play: Single Dime Play on Over 197.5 |
| Score: Play #5 |
| Comments: NBA - 607 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 608 Memphis Grizzlies Play #5 I think this is a good opportunity for us to cash w/ the Over in a game involving the Grizzlies. We all know MEM’s “grind out” mindset, but in L5 games vs. fast paced teams, the Grizzlies have scored 102, 108, 107, 109 and 103 pts with nice Off. Rtg = 114! MEM has good depth so they can “run well” vs. the right matchup. They will receive the Wolves that are coming from an incredible loss vs. PHX…I had the Over in that game and really, it was one of the “easiest” plays of the season! MIN is playing @great tempo…Ricky Rubio is playing way better on the offensive end and MIN’s rookie Dieng can run the floor pretty well, so the Wolves are a great offensive team as of late. MEM’s defense is ranked just #20 in transition defense and therefore, we can expect MIN to push the pace @every chance because they know that they won’t have any chance to beat the Grizzlies @slow paced style of game. We have Love vs. ZBO and IMO, both players have clear edge on the offensive end w/ Love w/ his outside shooting while ZBO will crush Love w/ his inside game. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 607/608 Over 197.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker |
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| Portland at Miami |
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| Play: Double Dime Play on Under 208 |
| Score: Play #4 |
| Comments: NBA - 605 Portland Trail Blazers @ 606 Miami Heat Play #4 ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** I understand that this Under play might be a bit insane given the Heat’s and Blazers’ defensive problems as of late, but I think that the matchup will favor a relatively low scoring game. I’ve already mentioned POR’s defensive problems vs. CHA in their last game: PG & Center defense was a huge problem vs. Al Jefferson & Kemba Walker, but the good news for them tonight is that MIA simply don’t have any skilled offensive player in that those players (PG & Center). Obviously, MIA’s will have some great offensive ends in other areas but in this particular (biggest problem for POR) area, the Heat won’t torch POR’s defense. On the other end, LMA is OUT for POR and so, we can expect (as usual) POR to rely on their PNR game w/ Lillard being the primarily offensive force. The bad news for POR is that MIA defense is ranked #1 in defending PNR ball handler plays…. I expect MIA to have some sense of urgency on the defensive end and suddenly, this contest has the right ingredients to go UNDER the total posted. Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 605/606 Under 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes |
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| Houston at Charlotte |
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| Play: Double Dime Play on Under 206 |
| Score: Play #2 |
| Comments: NBA - 601 Houston Rockets @ 602 Charlotte Bobcats Play #2 ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** CHA is coming from a great win vs. POR where their offense simply crushed the Blazers’ biggest weaknesses on the defensive end: they had Al Jefferson crushing the awful POR’s interior defense w/ 13-22 FG for 28 pts (Big Al scored 16 points in the first quarter!) while Kemba Walker torched the awful defense of D. Lillard and finished the game w/ 10-18 FG for 26 pts! So now imagine that instead of Robin Lopez, Al Jefferson will have to face D. Howard or O. Asik while Kemba Walker, instead of facing D. Lillard, he will have to face P. Beverly, and quickly we can realize that HOU’s defense will be a tough matchup for the Bobcats’ offense tonight. On the other end, HOU’s offense has been playing great as of late but note that they have faced some poorly defensive teams or matchups… the undersized MIA frontcourt, UTA, MIN or CLE w/ Hawes as their center! CHA’s defense is pretty good protecting the rim and well disciplined on the defensive end, so I also expect CHA’s defense to be decent in here. Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 601/602 Under 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes |
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| Phoenix at Atlanta |
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| Play: Single Dime Play on Phoenix (-3) |
| Score: Play #3 |
| Comments: NBA - 603 Phoenix Suns @ 604 Atlanta Hawks Play #3 We have in here two similar teams going H2H: both teams want to run and play fast, both teams have undersized frontcourts and both teams have frontcourt players w/ nice shooting range. However, the biggest difference is on the backcourt where PHX w/ Dragic & Bledsoe will have a tremendous edge vs. ATL’s backcourt. ATL played well in the first 3 quarters yesterday @TOR. Their problem @4th quarter was that they simply couldn’t stop TOR’s guards Lowry & DeRozan - Kyle Lowry scored 13 of his game-high 25 points in the fourth quarter & DeMar DeRozan scored 10 of his 21 points in the fourth quarter. Both TOR’s players attacked ATL’s bad PNR & poor rim protection and for tonight, we can expect the same thing from PHX’s top 2 guards. K. Korver is banged up and he is a key piece for ATL’s offense. PHX has superior depth IMO and they are confident after their great comeback win @MIN last night. My fair line for this contest is the Suns being favored by 2 full ball possessions and so, I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 603 Phoenix Suns (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes |
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| Philadelphia at San Antonio |
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| Play: Single Dime Play on Over 210 |
| Score: Play #6 |
| Comments: NBA - 615 Philadelphia 76ers @ 616 San Antonio Spurs Play #6 OK! So we have the Spurs’ offense being involved in a wild run and gun game vs. poor defensive team like the 76ers?!? I think we all know what will happen, right? The Spurs’ well oiled offensive machine will score @ huge rate due to their ability to generate easy good looking shots & great offensive depth. The key question in here is related w/ PHI offense vs. SAS defense…First of all, note that PHI’s latest opponents were all slow paced ranked team….IND 2x #20 MEM #30 CHI 2x #29 NYK #28 Still, they were decent offensively in some of those games. Tonight’s game will be played @ PHI’s style so they have a good spot to produce some points even though I don’t expect them to be efficient. The combination of fast pace + SAS offense will be more than enough for this contest to fly OVER the total. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 615/616 Over 210 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes |
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| Detroit at Utah |
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| Play: Single Dime Play on Detroit (-1.5) |
| Score: Play #7 |
| Comments: NBA - 617 Detroit Pistons @ 618 Utah Jazz Play #7 We all know that DET’s current lineup is pretty terrible and won’t work @decent level…However, note that DET has been decent in this road trip and so, I expect them to be fired up for tonight as they want to win one game. The good news is that UTA’s coach is now playing w/ Kanter & Favors together @ same time and well…the advanced metrics when these two players are on the court are terrible and it will fits well for DET’s frontcourt who is more skilled than UTA’s version. UTA’s decent guard A. Burks is OUT for tonight and he is pretty underrated IMO due to his ability to drive and attack the rim! With DET dominating the frontcourt battle, I don’t think that UTA’s backcourt without Burks will be able to clearly outplay DET’s backcourt unit and therefore, I’m taking the Pistons tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 615/616 Over 210 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes |
