BEN BURNS FULL CARD + 2-Plays Plus NCAA Tourney Game of the Year
Ben Burns: Burns' Monday **10** BEST BET A.T.S. BEATDOWN!
Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets Mar 15 2010 8:35PM
Play on: Houston Rockets I'm taking the points with HOUSTON. Every game is big for the Nuggets right now. However, every game is critical for Houston. It's true that the Rockets probably aren't going to make the playoffs this season. However, it's also true that they're still within striking distance and that they're not ready to give up quite yet.
As Luis Scola said: "We need to make a last, final push. We can't hold anything. We got to give everything we have right now. If we lose a couple of games, we'll be on vacation in three weeks. We need to make a last run, try to get back in a playoff push. Hopefully, we'll be a little lucky ... and fight for the last spot."
Speaking of Scola, he's coming off his fifth consecutive double-double. During that span, he's averaged a very impressive 26.2 points and 15.2 rebounds. In Saturday's win over the Nets, Scola went off for 44 points (12 rebounds) while going an outstanding 20 of 25 from the field.
While the Nuggets are practically unbeatable at home, even with having won the first three games of their current road trip, they're still only a mediocre 17-16 on the road. Note that they haven't swept a road trip of four or more games since 2005. (They're 1-6 ATS the last seven times that they played their previous three games on the road.) Additionally, note that they haven't swept the Rockets in more than 30 years.
The Nuggets are also an awful 2-12 ATS the last 14 tiems that they were listed as favorites of four points or less. While I'll grab the points, I expect the revenge-minded Rockets to score the minor upset. *10
Ben Burns: Burns' *8 #1 TOTAL OF THE WEEK! (33-13-1 L47!) *7 ET!
New Jersey Devils at Boston Bruins Mar 15 2010 7:05PM
Play on: over I'm playing on Boston and New Jersey to finish OVER the total. These teams played a pair of low-scoring games against each other earlier in the season. Both games finished with score of 2-1, both in favor of the Devils. However, both of those games were way back in the fall (November and December). They also both had plenty of scoring chances and shots, so either/both could have easily finished with more goals. The first game, which had a total of 5.5, had 63 shots. The next one featured 70.
Tonight's total is listed at five. Based on the way the teams are currently playing, I feel that provides us with solid value.
The Bruins have seen nine of their last 10 games (and 13 of last 15) finish with a minimum of five goals. Two of their last three have finished with six or more.
The Devils have seen eight of their last 10 games finish with a minimum of five goals. Five of their last seven have finished with six or more.
The OVER is 7-4-5 when the Bruins have played a road game with an O/U line of five. The OVER is also 9-6-2 when the Devils have played a home game with an O/U line of five.
Anytime that we play a total with five, there's always a reasonable chance of a 'push.' However, in this case, I feel that there's a greater chance of seeing more than five goals than less.
Ben Burns: **THIS IS IT** Burns' Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR! Texas A&M at Utah St. Mar 19 2010 4:55PM
Play on: Utah St. I'm taking the points with UTAH STATE. I respect Texas A&M. However, considering that they are a #5 seed, I feel that the Aggies from Texas got a really unfortunate draw here.
Many will be down on Utah State, as it lost its Conference Tournament Championship game and hails from a "weaker" conference. Both those points are true. The Aggies did lose their Tournament Championship game and the WAC is certainly not as good as the Big 12. That said, there are several reasons why I feel that Utah State can and will earn the upset here.
Yes, the Big 12 is better than the WAC. However, Utah State is the best team from the WAC, the loss in the finals notwithstanding. The same cannot be said of Texas A&M in the Big 12. Yes, Utah State lost it the WAC Finals. However, the Aggies may have assumed that they already had an NCAA berth wrapped up and may have been already looking ahead. Either way, let's not forget that they had won 17 in a row, before that loss.
Unlike a lot of teams from lesser conferences, getting to the Big Dance is nothing new for the Aggies from Utah State. Indeed, this is their second straight appearance and the seventh time that they've been here in the last 11 years. They lost in the first round last season. However, that was against a Marquette team which had started the season 20-2 and which had been one of the better teams in what was a very powerful Big East Conference. Additionally, that loss came by just a single point. Note that they limited the Golden Eagles to only 47 shot attempts and a mere 36.2 percent shooting.
I feel that this year's Utah State team is every bit as good as last year's team, arguably even better. Yes, they did lose a star when forward Gary Wilkinson graduated. That was admittedly a big loss. The other four starters have all improved though and Nate Bendall (10.4, 5.4) has done a capable job in stepping in for Wilkinson.
As is generally the case when a team that comes from a lesser conference faces a team from a conference like the Big 12, Utah State doesn't necessarily have the type of athleticism that Texas A&M brings to the table. However, the Aggies are more athletic than people probably believe and they also make up for it in a number of different ways.
For starters, they're one of the best shooting teams in the country. In the regular season, the Aggies led the WAC in field goal percentage (48.9), 3-point percentage (42.0) and free throw shooting (76.6). They pass the ball very well and every starter averaged greater than eight points during the regular season.
Additionally, the Utah State Aggies are an extremely efficient team which rarely turns the ball over. Indeed, they had single-digits in turnovers in each of their final six regular season games. For the season, Utah State finished sixth in the nation in fewest turnovers.
They also run a complicated 'motion offense' which can be difficult for opposing teams to prepare for. Fresno State forward Sylvester Seay described preparing for them like this: "They have like 100 damn plays. It's like taking a test and guessing what things the teacher's going to put on the test."
Texas A&M does have excellent guard play. However, Utah State is also strong in that area. Pooh Williams is one of the best defenders in the WAC and he'll be asked to stop A&M senior Donald Sloan. Meanwhile, senior (first-team All-WAC) point guard Jared Quayle is one of the better players that many haven't heard of. He averaged 11.9 points, 4.3 assists and an impressive 6.2 rebounds during the regular season. I expect him to do a good job in slowing down the tempo.
While Utah State doesn't have many senior players, they're not as 'young' as many might imagine, as many of their players have taken two-year church missions.
Utah State coach Stew Morrill, the WAC Coach of the year, said of his team: "I like this team. They show up every day. They are great acting kids. They don't care about stats. They care about winning. They share the ball; they play hard..."
Over the years, we often see #12 seeds upset #5 seeds. With this game being played at Spokane, Washington, I feel that there's a great shot that we'll see another upset here. *10 Tournament GOY
Ben Burns: Burns' Monday **10** BEST BET A.T.S. BEATDOWN!
Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets Mar 15 2010 8:35PM
Play on: Houston Rockets I'm taking the points with HOUSTON. Every game is big for the Nuggets right now. However, every game is critical for Houston. It's true that the Rockets probably aren't going to make the playoffs this season. However, it's also true that they're still within striking distance and that they're not ready to give up quite yet.
As Luis Scola said: "We need to make a last, final push. We can't hold anything. We got to give everything we have right now. If we lose a couple of games, we'll be on vacation in three weeks. We need to make a last run, try to get back in a playoff push. Hopefully, we'll be a little lucky ... and fight for the last spot."
Speaking of Scola, he's coming off his fifth consecutive double-double. During that span, he's averaged a very impressive 26.2 points and 15.2 rebounds. In Saturday's win over the Nets, Scola went off for 44 points (12 rebounds) while going an outstanding 20 of 25 from the field.
While the Nuggets are practically unbeatable at home, even with having won the first three games of their current road trip, they're still only a mediocre 17-16 on the road. Note that they haven't swept a road trip of four or more games since 2005. (They're 1-6 ATS the last seven times that they played their previous three games on the road.) Additionally, note that they haven't swept the Rockets in more than 30 years.
The Nuggets are also an awful 2-12 ATS the last 14 tiems that they were listed as favorites of four points or less. While I'll grab the points, I expect the revenge-minded Rockets to score the minor upset. *10
Ben Burns: Burns' *8 #1 TOTAL OF THE WEEK! (33-13-1 L47!) *7 ET!
New Jersey Devils at Boston Bruins Mar 15 2010 7:05PM
Play on: over I'm playing on Boston and New Jersey to finish OVER the total. These teams played a pair of low-scoring games against each other earlier in the season. Both games finished with score of 2-1, both in favor of the Devils. However, both of those games were way back in the fall (November and December). They also both had plenty of scoring chances and shots, so either/both could have easily finished with more goals. The first game, which had a total of 5.5, had 63 shots. The next one featured 70.
Tonight's total is listed at five. Based on the way the teams are currently playing, I feel that provides us with solid value.
The Bruins have seen nine of their last 10 games (and 13 of last 15) finish with a minimum of five goals. Two of their last three have finished with six or more.
The Devils have seen eight of their last 10 games finish with a minimum of five goals. Five of their last seven have finished with six or more.
The OVER is 7-4-5 when the Bruins have played a road game with an O/U line of five. The OVER is also 9-6-2 when the Devils have played a home game with an O/U line of five.
Anytime that we play a total with five, there's always a reasonable chance of a 'push.' However, in this case, I feel that there's a greater chance of seeing more than five goals than less.
Ben Burns: **THIS IS IT** Burns' Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR! Texas A&M at Utah St. Mar 19 2010 4:55PM
Play on: Utah St. I'm taking the points with UTAH STATE. I respect Texas A&M. However, considering that they are a #5 seed, I feel that the Aggies from Texas got a really unfortunate draw here.
Many will be down on Utah State, as it lost its Conference Tournament Championship game and hails from a "weaker" conference. Both those points are true. The Aggies did lose their Tournament Championship game and the WAC is certainly not as good as the Big 12. That said, there are several reasons why I feel that Utah State can and will earn the upset here.
Yes, the Big 12 is better than the WAC. However, Utah State is the best team from the WAC, the loss in the finals notwithstanding. The same cannot be said of Texas A&M in the Big 12. Yes, Utah State lost it the WAC Finals. However, the Aggies may have assumed that they already had an NCAA berth wrapped up and may have been already looking ahead. Either way, let's not forget that they had won 17 in a row, before that loss.
Unlike a lot of teams from lesser conferences, getting to the Big Dance is nothing new for the Aggies from Utah State. Indeed, this is their second straight appearance and the seventh time that they've been here in the last 11 years. They lost in the first round last season. However, that was against a Marquette team which had started the season 20-2 and which had been one of the better teams in what was a very powerful Big East Conference. Additionally, that loss came by just a single point. Note that they limited the Golden Eagles to only 47 shot attempts and a mere 36.2 percent shooting.
I feel that this year's Utah State team is every bit as good as last year's team, arguably even better. Yes, they did lose a star when forward Gary Wilkinson graduated. That was admittedly a big loss. The other four starters have all improved though and Nate Bendall (10.4, 5.4) has done a capable job in stepping in for Wilkinson.
As is generally the case when a team that comes from a lesser conference faces a team from a conference like the Big 12, Utah State doesn't necessarily have the type of athleticism that Texas A&M brings to the table. However, the Aggies are more athletic than people probably believe and they also make up for it in a number of different ways.
For starters, they're one of the best shooting teams in the country. In the regular season, the Aggies led the WAC in field goal percentage (48.9), 3-point percentage (42.0) and free throw shooting (76.6). They pass the ball very well and every starter averaged greater than eight points during the regular season.
Additionally, the Utah State Aggies are an extremely efficient team which rarely turns the ball over. Indeed, they had single-digits in turnovers in each of their final six regular season games. For the season, Utah State finished sixth in the nation in fewest turnovers.
They also run a complicated 'motion offense' which can be difficult for opposing teams to prepare for. Fresno State forward Sylvester Seay described preparing for them like this: "They have like 100 damn plays. It's like taking a test and guessing what things the teacher's going to put on the test."
Texas A&M does have excellent guard play. However, Utah State is also strong in that area. Pooh Williams is one of the best defenders in the WAC and he'll be asked to stop A&M senior Donald Sloan. Meanwhile, senior (first-team All-WAC) point guard Jared Quayle is one of the better players that many haven't heard of. He averaged 11.9 points, 4.3 assists and an impressive 6.2 rebounds during the regular season. I expect him to do a good job in slowing down the tempo.
While Utah State doesn't have many senior players, they're not as 'young' as many might imagine, as many of their players have taken two-year church missions.
Utah State coach Stew Morrill, the WAC Coach of the year, said of his team: "I like this team. They show up every day. They are great acting kids. They don't care about stats. They care about winning. They share the ball; they play hard..."
Over the years, we often see #12 seeds upset #5 seeds. With this game being played at Spokane, Washington, I feel that there's a great shot that we'll see another upset here. *10 Tournament GOY
Antony Dinero
Lakers at Warriors
Pick: Under 224
Look for the Lakers to again pull away from the Warriors late, as they've had time to prepare for the first half of an in-state back-to-back that also takes the team to Sacramento on Wednesday. Monta Ellis is back and playing well, but you can expect L.A. to funnel him towards the rim in order to have him deal with their length since there's no one who can stay in front of him. Kobe? Expect him to entertain himself with putting a dent in Stephen Curry's Rookie of the Year campaign. The kid from Davidson College is getting a lot of attention of late, and Bryant will make it his personal little challenge to make everything difficult for him and throw off that rhythm. As a result, with Bryant engaged and L.A. sharing the ball, look for them to win and cover in a game that goes under. Back the Lakers -7 and the under, 224.
Lakers at Warriors
Pick: Under 224
Look for the Lakers to again pull away from the Warriors late, as they've had time to prepare for the first half of an in-state back-to-back that also takes the team to Sacramento on Wednesday. Monta Ellis is back and playing well, but you can expect L.A. to funnel him towards the rim in order to have him deal with their length since there's no one who can stay in front of him. Kobe? Expect him to entertain himself with putting a dent in Stephen Curry's Rookie of the Year campaign. The kid from Davidson College is getting a lot of attention of late, and Bryant will make it his personal little challenge to make everything difficult for him and throw off that rhythm. As a result, with Bryant engaged and L.A. sharing the ball, look for them to win and cover in a game that goes under. Back the Lakers -7 and the under, 224.
GamblersWorld
Tip of the Day
Today's TIP OF THE DAY:
Sport: NBA
Game: 8:00PM Detroit Pistons vs. Boston Celtics
Play On: Boston -10.
Current Line: Boston -10.5
Over/Under: 196
Reason: The Detroit Pistons and the Boston Celtics will both be gunning for a victory on Monday when they meet at TD Garden.
Oddsmakers currently have the Celtics listed as 10½-point favorites versus the Pistons, while the game's total is sitting at 196.
The Pistons were defeated 112-99 by the Hawks last time out, as 12-point underdogs. That game's 211 points sailed OVER the posted total of 197.5.
Jason Maxiell collected 19 points and 12 rebounds for a double-double in the loss.
The Celtics lost to Cleveland 104-93 as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (193).
Tip of the Day
Today's TIP OF THE DAY:
Sport: NBA
Game: 8:00PM Detroit Pistons vs. Boston Celtics
Play On: Boston -10.
Current Line: Boston -10.5
Over/Under: 196
Reason: The Detroit Pistons and the Boston Celtics will both be gunning for a victory on Monday when they meet at TD Garden.
Oddsmakers currently have the Celtics listed as 10½-point favorites versus the Pistons, while the game's total is sitting at 196.
The Pistons were defeated 112-99 by the Hawks last time out, as 12-point underdogs. That game's 211 points sailed OVER the posted total of 197.5.
Jason Maxiell collected 19 points and 12 rebounds for a double-double in the loss.
The Celtics lost to Cleveland 104-93 as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (193).
GINA
Denver Nuggets (45-21) at Houston Rockets (33-31)
The Nuggets go for their seventh straight victory overall tonight and its third against the Rockets this season at the Toyota Center.
Denver has won and covered the last two games against the Rockets and is 5-2 ATS in its last 7. In the last meeting without All-Star Carmelo Anthony, Denver beat the Rockets, 97-92, in Houston. Go with the hot Nuggets to outscore the Rockets an take a season sweep.
Denver Nuggets -2½
Denver Nuggets (45-21) at Houston Rockets (33-31)
The Nuggets go for their seventh straight victory overall tonight and its third against the Rockets this season at the Toyota Center.
Denver has won and covered the last two games against the Rockets and is 5-2 ATS in its last 7. In the last meeting without All-Star Carmelo Anthony, Denver beat the Rockets, 97-92, in Houston. Go with the hot Nuggets to outscore the Rockets an take a season sweep.
Denver Nuggets -2½
Hot Teams
-- Knicks are 5-3-1 vs spread in last nine road games.
-- Nuggets won last six games (3-0-1 vs spread in last four). Rockets won three of last four games, but are 1-8 vs spread in game following their last nine wins.
-- Jazz are 8-3-1 vs spread in last twelve home games.
Cold Teams
-- 76ers lost four in row, nine of last ten games.
-- Pistons lost eight of last ten games. Celtics lost three of last four.
-- Wizards lost their last seven games (2-5 vs spread).
-- Clippers lost their last seven games (1-6 vs spread). Hornets are 1-7 in last eight games (0-7 vs spread in last seven).
-- Lakers are 2-7-1 vs spread in last ten games as a favorite. Warriors lost six of last seven games, but covered six of last eight.
Playing Second of Back-to-Back Nights
-- 76ers are 0-3 vs spread at home if they played the night before.
-- Celtics are 1-5 vs spread if they lost the day/night before.
-- Jazz are 4-1 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Hornets are 6-5 vs spread on road if they played night before.
Totals
-- Seven of last nine New York road games went over the total.
-- Last three Boston games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Denver road games stayed under the total. Three of last four Houston games went over.
-- Nine of last eleven Utah games went over the total. Six of Wizards' last eight games stayed under.
-- Last four Clipper games went over the total.
-- Under is 11-4 in last fifteen Laker games.
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-- Knicks are 5-3-1 vs spread in last nine road games.
-- Nuggets won last six games (3-0-1 vs spread in last four). Rockets won three of last four games, but are 1-8 vs spread in game following their last nine wins.
-- Jazz are 8-3-1 vs spread in last twelve home games.
Cold Teams
-- 76ers lost four in row, nine of last ten games.
-- Pistons lost eight of last ten games. Celtics lost three of last four.
-- Wizards lost their last seven games (2-5 vs spread).
-- Clippers lost their last seven games (1-6 vs spread). Hornets are 1-7 in last eight games (0-7 vs spread in last seven).
-- Lakers are 2-7-1 vs spread in last ten games as a favorite. Warriors lost six of last seven games, but covered six of last eight.
Playing Second of Back-to-Back Nights
-- 76ers are 0-3 vs spread at home if they played the night before.
-- Celtics are 1-5 vs spread if they lost the day/night before.
-- Jazz are 4-1 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Hornets are 6-5 vs spread on road if they played night before.
Totals
-- Seven of last nine New York road games went over the total.
-- Last three Boston games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Denver road games stayed under the total. Three of last four Houston games went over.
-- Nine of last eleven Utah games went over the total. Six of Wizards' last eight games stayed under.
-- Last four Clipper games went over the total.
-- Under is 11-4 in last fifteen Laker games.
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Some NBA Trends for Monday Night
TRENDS
NEW YORK vs. PHILADELPHIA
New York is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of New York's last 18 games
Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against New York
Philadelphia is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against New York
DETROIT vs. BOSTON
Detroit is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Boston
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston is 2-13-1 ATS in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games at home
DENVER vs. HOUSTON
Denver is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Denver
WASHINGTON vs. UTAH
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
Washington is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 games
Utah is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
LA LAKERS vs. GOLDEN STATE
LA Lakers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Golden State
LA Lakers are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
NEW ORLEANS vs. LA CLIPPERS
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
LA Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
LA Clippers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
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TRENDS
NEW YORK vs. PHILADELPHIA
New York is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of New York's last 18 games
Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against New York
Philadelphia is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against New York
DETROIT vs. BOSTON
Detroit is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Boston
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston is 2-13-1 ATS in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games at home
DENVER vs. HOUSTON
Denver is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Denver
WASHINGTON vs. UTAH
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
Washington is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 games
Utah is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
LA LAKERS vs. GOLDEN STATE
LA Lakers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Golden State
LA Lakers are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
NEW ORLEANS vs. LA CLIPPERS
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
LA Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
LA Clippers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
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TRENDS
NEW YORK at PHILADELPHIA
NEW YORK: 8-0 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 4 days
PHILADELPHIA: 7-15 ATS as a favorite
DETROIT at BOSTON
DETROIT: 17-7 ATS in March
BOSTON: 10-22 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5
DENVER at HOUSTON
DENVER: 2-10 ATS when the line is +3 to -3
HOUSTON: 14-4 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3
WASHINGTON at UTAH
WASHINGTON: 21-8 UNDER in road games
UTAH: 12-3 ATS off a road loss
NEW ORLEANS at LA CLIPPERS
NEW ORLEANS: 0-7 ATS in March
LA CLIPPERS: 10-3 OVER off 2+ consecutive road losses
LA LAKERS at GOLDEN STATE
LA LAKERS: 20-10 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3
GOLDEN STATE: 20-6 UNDER when playing with 2 days rest
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NEW YORK at PHILADELPHIA
NEW YORK: 8-0 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 4 days
PHILADELPHIA: 7-15 ATS as a favorite
DETROIT at BOSTON
DETROIT: 17-7 ATS in March
BOSTON: 10-22 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5
DENVER at HOUSTON
DENVER: 2-10 ATS when the line is +3 to -3
HOUSTON: 14-4 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3
WASHINGTON at UTAH
WASHINGTON: 21-8 UNDER in road games
UTAH: 12-3 ATS off a road loss
NEW ORLEANS at LA CLIPPERS
NEW ORLEANS: 0-7 ATS in March
LA CLIPPERS: 10-3 OVER off 2+ consecutive road losses
LA LAKERS at GOLDEN STATE
LA LAKERS: 20-10 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3
GOLDEN STATE: 20-6 UNDER when playing with 2 days rest
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