Service Plays Monday 3/15/10

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Craig Davis
Monday's Lineup

20 Dime – ROCKETS

I'm a little more comfortable with the home underdog here tonight than I am a Denver team that just scored 43 points in the 4th quarter of its last game (win) against Memphis and now travels to play a Houston team that has gone back and forth, ATS wins and losses, since February 24th. Houston has won two straight and three of their last four despite trying to get Trevor Ariza back into the flow of the offense and defense. It's not easy when a team welcomes back one of its star players, especially after they had to play so many games without him... but it didn't seem to bother the Rockets too much and I'm thinking we're going to see a much better effort from him (and the entire team) tonight.

Houston has beaten Denver at home four of the last five times they played and I think they're catching the Nuggets at just the right time. No Kenyon Martin, no Ty Lawson, a banged up Chris Andersen (though he might play)... plus I think Denver might be a little fatigued having played three games in four nights and four games in the last six. There's no doubt Denver is more than capable of winning tonight's game with the talent they have, but we all know this is hardly a good road team (.500) while Houston does play better down in South Texas. The Rockets have the advantage on the glass and play a little bit better defense than Denver, especially when playing at home. This is a huge game for the Rockets to get some confidence and to get back into the playoff hunt in the West. I like the Rockets as my top play of the day.

BOUGHT, PAID, CONFIRMED....GOOD LUCK!

THIS WEEK: +101 DIMES
 

ugk

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DON WALLACE SPORTS
NBA

10* Washington +11.5 over Utah
4* Houston +2.5 over Denver
4* Detroit +9 over Boston
 
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Monday NBA System play + radio show info-GC

On Monday the free NBA Play is on the New York. Game 501 at 7:05 eastern. What we want to do in this game is play o road teams with 1 or more days rest if they were a road dog +10 or more and scored 120 or more,vs an opponent who scored 90 or more. These road teams have won every times since 1995 and failed to cover just one. While its very rare that road dogs of 10 or more score 120 or more its interesting that they carry that effort over in their very next road game. The Knicks ended the Mavericks 13 game win streak and now go into Philly to take on a Sixers team taht is unrested and off a road loss down in Miami. Philadelphia is 1-9 straight up and ats at home with no rest if they scored 90 or more the night before. Look for the Knicks to cover tonight. Those looking for something to hit hard I have a 5* totals play from a cutting edge dominator system that averages 225 points per game. Jump on and start the week on the right side. For those interested I will be doing the weekly radio show tonight and you can listen online at 88.9 wsia.fm at 8:05 eastern. Show host Anthony Pierno and I will be discussing mostly NCAA Tournament subjects and I will have a nice Bonus Play as well. For the Bonus Play tonight take the Knicks plus the points. BOL GC
 

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VR Morning Moves

VR’s Morning Moves - Monday, March 15, 2010<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
Report Status: MONDY MARCH 15th, 2010<o:p></o:p>
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on TUES 3-16-10<o:p></o:p>
Notes: <o:p></o:p>
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTIONS for MONDAY MARCH 15<SUP>th</SUP>, 2010<o:p></o:p>
HANDICAPPING : “MARCH MADNESS…THE LAY-OFF FACTOR”<o:p></o:p>
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…What a great way to end another Winning Conference Tournament Season…By cashing the only bet made on the final day and having it be a 3* BOMB…In fact, we ended the 2010 Conference Tournaments cashing 67% ATS on 3*s…So you can see why we were willing to change gears heading into them…Especially since for another consecutive year, we ended up cashing over 61% ATS Overall<o:p></o:p>
Now we move on to the Big Dance…And once again, this is a totally different phase of the CBB Season…Which must always be broken down into separate parts…This, being one of those parts…And quite possibly, one of the most profitable for sharp bettors because this will definitely be the time of the year where the recreational bettors money will out-weigh the Wiseguy money on just about every side and total…<o:p></o:p>
And as I’ve said countless times in past Newsletters…It’s during those times, that we look to change gears and increase our positions…Because we ultimately have a much greater edge than ever before…But as we also touched upon on previous Newsletters…you should only change gears when you have substantial data that supports and proves that you truly do have an increased edge over the books…And how you should only do so, if you are an extremely disciplined sports bettor…Which can be determined by the simple fact of whether or not you are actually turning a profit betting sports…<o:p></o:p>
With that said…if you aren’t…then more times than not it isn’t because you don’t have the ability to gather information that will provide more winners than losers…Instead, it’s simply because you have not yet decided to treat sports betting like a business…And through these Newsletters, it is my main goal to try and get you to do so…By showing you how those that do turn a true profit wagering into this market, do it…<o:p></o:p>
Over the course of this week…as we approach the 1<SUP>st</SUP> Round of the Madness, I will attempt to help you build a handicapping foundation that will point you in the right direction of what to look for and what helps in determining profitable positions to take…So that with each year that passes, we can add to that with deeper and more difficult concepts…<o:p></o:p>
So over these next few days, I am going to pass along to you…some of the most important factors that I can assure you…the handicappers for the most successful Betting Syndicates use…And I can assure you because not only did I witness it, but I made sure I asked as many questions as possible to each of the different cappers, for the different Outfits that I worked for through the years…<o:p></o:p>
Because other than making that your Ratings are at their sharpest, which will allow you to spot potential value and determine if the books have put out a “Fair Line” or “True Line” (covered in previous Newsletters)…And since this is the time of the CBB Season when “public perception” is weighed the heaviest…having that ability alone, will put you on pace to have a winning March Madness…<o:p></o:p>
But besides your Ratings and ability to create an accurate price to compare to what the books are offering…there are a handful of key factors that you must consider when you break down and handicapp the match-up…And those are what I am going to pass along to you, through these next few days…<o:p></o:p>
The first one that I want to touch on is probably the one that takes the least amount of effort, and the least amount of reasoning…But with that said, it does take some work and you do have to try and make sure that you are accurate in your assessments…<o:p></o:p>
The factor that I am referring to is the “LAY-OFF” factor…<o:p></o:p>
Because many of the teams in the Big Dance will be playing their 1<SUP>st</SUP> game after being off a different amount of time…Some will have finished their Conference Tournaments much sooner than those BCS Conferences and some of the Mid-Majors…And then you also have plenty of at-large bids that didn’t get far in their Conference Tournaments, even though they were expected to do so…Then finally, you have some teams that were going to be at-large bids anyway…get to their Conference Finals and even with them (Duke, Kentucky, Ohio St, ect)…While others who wouldn’t have gotten in without a nice run during those Conference Tournaments, played more games during a short period of time…with a lot more pressure on them than others…<o:p></o:p>
So you can see how there are many different categories that you need to group all of the teams in this Tournament into…And the more categories that you are able to come up with, the more your “Lay-Off” list will be detailed…Which will ultimately assist you in your reasoning when trying to determine the positives and negatives of each…<o:p></o:p>
Now that you know how you need to group the teams…let’s discuss some of the positives and negatives of each…<o:p></o:p>
For starters, some of those teams what won their Conference long before Selection Sunday and knew they were getting invited to the Big Dance…have already reached their season goal…And that is such a huge factor to consider because motivation becomes so huge since many of these teams will be “Dogs” in their first game…We already know from past Newsletters that we want to back dogs that are going to give us 40 minutes of effort, so that the “back-door” remains open…<o:p></o:p>
But then we have those same teams who wrapped it up early, that have been to the Dance before…and their motivation will be different because they haven’t reached their season goals yet…Especially if this class has been there before and got eliminated early…For them, it’s all about getting past that 1<SUP>st</SUP> Round…And it’s only after they achieve this, that we then group them as having reached that season goal…<o:p></o:p>
Then we have teams that knew they were getting an at-large bid, but didn’t do well in their Conference Tournaments…Which means that they have a longer lay-off than those who did well, but not as long as those we touched on above…These teams we need to then break down into 2 more groups…And those are : Playing Well Down the Stretch…and Not Playing Well Down the Stretch…Because unfortunately, no matter how high the expectations may have been early in the season…it’s very hard to just turn it on whenever you like at this level…But with that said, if there was an injury or something like that which made the final stretch more difficult…and now that “spark” is back…then we can’t by pass those teams…<o:p></o:p>
Finally, we have those teams that would have gotten an at-large, and went on to win their Conference Tournament anyway…Those we have to break down into “Playing their best Ball” or “In the Zone”…or possibly, “Spent”…Meaning, winning that Conference Tournament may have taken too much out of them…And recovering in such a short time-span will be difficult…<o:p></o:p>
Those are some of the categories that I make sure to put each team in after I create my “1<SUP>st</SUP>” Line based solely on Ratings…Because my next line will include handicapping the match-up, and finally…my “Fair Line”…which is intended to do nothing more than “split the money”…<o:p></o:p>
And by being able to label each team…it allows me to make a more accurate price to compare to what is being offered by the books…<o:p></o:p>
In closing…do not forget that I am ONLY talking about covering or not covering the line…Although it will help, my intentions are not to try win a bracket pool…Instead, it’s to find profitable positions that I can get my money down on where I believe I am “getting the best of it”…So I urge you to make sure that you keep that in mind when listening to all of the information that will be passed along via “Sports Center”, “Radio”, ect…<o:p></o:p>
That is a factor that I want to make sure I try to cover in future Newsletters because it is extremely important…And I will help you learn how you can benefit from it…Although it may be a little unorthodox from what you may expect…<o:p></o:p>
Thanks again for all your support and for helping me have another Winning Conference Tournament…Let’s have a huge March Madness and continue on to having a Winning 2010...With 2 Winning Months our of 2 so far…we are definitely on our way to making it 3 for 3...Best of Luck, VR<o:p></o:p>
LINE-PREDICTION :<o:p></o:p>
1.) 505 HOUSTON +3<o:p></o:p>
There are not a lot of games on tonight, and the Wiseguys will usually get take their positions early…then move on to tomorrow’s action, and work on the Big Dance…But I know for sure that took +3.5 on Houston as soon as the number went up…And from what I’ve been told, they are looking at grabbing +3 as well…So without much public money on a night like this, the books should be forced to adjust and if the Wiseguys come through for Round 2...we should see them force this line to drop some more…VR<o:p></o:p>
Mon, 03/15/10 - 8:35 PM VR's Morning Moves | NBA Sides<o:p></o:p>
double-dime bet 506 HOU 3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 505 DEN<o:p></o:p>
Analysis: <o:p></o:p>
** NBA MORNING MOVES 2* BOOKIE BET **<o:p></o:p>
This position was already one that I was going to work on Confirming throughout the day...Because according to my True Line...this game should be much closer to a "Pick-em"...So on line-value alone, it warrented a look...But after breaking down the match-up, and getting some good info from one of our Bookmaker sources who had one of his winning Outfits take a huge position...the Confirmation came early...And after speaking to a handful of our "runner" sources, there were even more Betting Syndicates jumping on Houston at +3.5 as soon as the number went up...Because they too made this price much lower than the books are offering...But with a small board, the oddsmakers seemed to have weighed in "public perception" much heavier...And with Houston coming off a game where they couldn't cover at home vs Wash, the perception makes Denver look like an easy winner...But that game came off the heels of them returning from a road trip out East...and how motivated could anyone be against the Wizards...Tonight, that should change with Denver in town...I look for Houston to bring their A-Game and for the Home-Court to play a major factor...So let's go ahead and see if we can start the week off with a "live-home-dog" getting the money...VR<o:p></o:p>
 
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Johnny Guild

Monday, March 15th, 2010 10:30 PM EST.
Los Angeles Lakers (48-18) at Golden State Warriors (18-47)

The Lakers have won eight straight against the Warriors, including the last four in Oakland. Go with Kobe and crew to continue being in command of the Warriors. Los Angeles is 24-4 in their last 28 clashes against Golden State and is 8-1 both straight-up and against the spread in the last 9 at ORACLE Arena.

Los Angeles Lakers -8
 
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Doc Sports NBA 3-15-10

3-Unit Play #507 Take Washington/Utah UNDER 205 ½ (9 p.m. EST, Monday)
3-Unit Play #510 Take LA Clippers -2 ½ Over New Orleans (10:30 p.m. EST, Monday)
 

ugk

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BEATYOURBOOKIE

NBA Hoops for Monday

100* Play Utah (-11.5) over Washington (Top Play)
 

ugk

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BRANDON LANG

5 DIME- Denver Nuggets -
FREE PICK- New Orleans Hornets

NOTE:

When he went to the line and the Owls nursing a 3-point lead after blowing all of a double digit 2nd half lead to boot, I just felt like he was going to miss one of them.

Yup, 1 for 2 puts 15 dime winner # 3 in a row in the push column.

Hey, as I always say it's better than a loss but truth be told, Temple should have closed them out and we should have had the win and another winning day.

Be that as it may, finishing off winning week # 3 in a row today is what it's all about. Simple as that.

To step up on February 27th and tell you I was going to end that month with back to back winning days and never look back in March, well you can't say I didn't warn you this was coming.

I won both days to end the month of February and March has been flat out delightful so far, but as I have been saying time and time again, can't stop now.

Have to keep pushing forward with another winner. Another winning day. Another top play winner in hoops and continue to build the bankroll for great things in the NCAA tourney.

It's a gameplan I have executed to perfection the last 3 weeks and if I were you, I wouldn't doubt me from acheiving my goal of a 4th straight winning week.

So here we go. Another winner awaits you and another wining day awaits right along with it.

LIFE IS GOOD.

5 DIME - DENVER NUGGETS -

Here they come.

After back to back road losses on consectutive nights on February 28th and March 1st against the Lakers 95-89 and Suns 101-85, the Nuggets haven't lost again.

They are in the middle of a 6-0 run SU (4-1-1 ATS) and now get a Rockets team they have won and covered both meetings this year. In Denver back on December 16, the Nuggets won 111-101 as an 8 1/2 point chalk. On January 27th in Houston they posted a 97-92 win laying 2 1/2.

Houston comes in 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS their last 10 on the Vegas board with a 2-3 ATS run their last 5 at home. They struggled with bad teams like Sacramento and the Nets while getting hammered by the Magic by 18.

The bottom line is the Houston Rockets just don't match up with the Denver Nuggets and just like the previous 2 meetings, they will lose this one as well.

Let the numbers show Houston is 3-13 ATS following a SU win and an even worse, 3-14 ATS in its last 17 home games.

You throw that in your pot of stew with the fact Denver is 4-0-1 ATS its last 5 versus the Western conference and 5-2 ATS the last 7 meetings and you can see how the Nuggets continue to roll tonight.

Denver is the right side this evening.

FREE PICK - NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
 
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PLUSLINE SPORTS - SOCCER
Soccer addition for March 15....

FC Brno vs Banik Ostrava -
Czech Gambrinus Liga,
Date: Monday March 15, 2010, Time: 11:30 GMT-5
Pick: UNDER 2.5 goals(1.64)Betfair
 

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