<dl><dt class="dtPgTop">Andre Gomes | NBA Sides</dt><dt class="dtPgSub">705 DAL -4.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 706 GSW</dt><dd class="ddPgMid">Analysis: First Update: Ok, we have Dallas in here as a big public target tonight. Nevertheless I believe that we have a slightly edge with them as my key line is two full ball possessions (-6 pts) for them so I'm taking Dallas. I don't expect this line to change favoring the Mavs while the oddmakers are giving "too much love" for the Warriors who are supposedly a "tough team" to beat at home.
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In my opinion the Mavericks have all the conditions to get done their job tonight against the Warriors even though at a first sight it looks like a tough game for them. We all know that the Warriors have been the "Mavs nemesis" through the last years and the Mavs are just 1-4 L5 games while the Warriors somehow were able to cover the spread in 6 of their last 10 games. However it's just the "matchups" that will kill the Warriors tonight and this isn't reflected in any trend or whatever.
The Mavs are having some problems in containing the opposing Point Guard as Jason Kidd isn't the same great defensive player anymore. Andre Miller, Deron Williams or even Monta Ellis torched the Mavs as of late. However the Mavs can live with that as long as they dominate the boards and secure the paint. The problem is that even in this department the Mavs are showing unexpected problems. For example in the last game, the Wolves big men simply crushed the Mavs bigs: Al Jefferson shot 7-11 FG, Ryan Hollins 6-12 FG and Kevin Love shot 8-12 FG. We are talking about a combined mark of 21-35 from the field - a 60% clip! Blazers F LaMarcus Aldridge has shot 10-20 FG against Dallas, Paul Millsap 10-16 FG and so the Mavs failed to win in those games.
Fortunately for them, the Warriors don't have any offensive power in their frontcourt and naturally that the Mavericks will solve this problem tonight. In the last game between these two teams the Mavs had some problems to win due to a huge performance from Monta Ellis who ended the game with a career high 46 points while shooting 17-23 from the field - still the Warriors lost by 9 points! Note that the Warriors had only 13 assists vs. 21 turnovers which tell us that they are playing selfish basketball as of late and they can't secure the ball as well. In fact, in the last 2 games they had 36 assists vs. 44 turnovers! Also in that game, the Warriors had an unexpected and rare edge in the boards 15-7 in offensive boards - it was the first time in 10 games that they had more boards than their opponents so for tonight I don't think that the Warriors will have a similar edge tonight.
Corey Maggette is banged up for tonight and some reports are saying that he is out for tonight. Nevertheless the Warriors have only in Monta Ellis and possibly Stephen Curry their offensive anchors and this isn't enough to win. For some reason they are 0-8 in the last games with the only win being against…the Nets!
The Mavericks will come for this game with a huge sense of urgency due to their bad stretch as of late: "We're disappointed with the way we've been playing," Carlisle said after practice Sunday. "We're looking forward to [tonight]. We want to end the first 52 games of the season on a high note."
Take the Mavericks in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Dallas Mavericks (-4)</dd></dl>
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In my opinion the Mavericks have all the conditions to get done their job tonight against the Warriors even though at a first sight it looks like a tough game for them. We all know that the Warriors have been the "Mavs nemesis" through the last years and the Mavs are just 1-4 L5 games while the Warriors somehow were able to cover the spread in 6 of their last 10 games. However it's just the "matchups" that will kill the Warriors tonight and this isn't reflected in any trend or whatever.
The Mavs are having some problems in containing the opposing Point Guard as Jason Kidd isn't the same great defensive player anymore. Andre Miller, Deron Williams or even Monta Ellis torched the Mavs as of late. However the Mavs can live with that as long as they dominate the boards and secure the paint. The problem is that even in this department the Mavs are showing unexpected problems. For example in the last game, the Wolves big men simply crushed the Mavs bigs: Al Jefferson shot 7-11 FG, Ryan Hollins 6-12 FG and Kevin Love shot 8-12 FG. We are talking about a combined mark of 21-35 from the field - a 60% clip! Blazers F LaMarcus Aldridge has shot 10-20 FG against Dallas, Paul Millsap 10-16 FG and so the Mavs failed to win in those games.
Fortunately for them, the Warriors don't have any offensive power in their frontcourt and naturally that the Mavericks will solve this problem tonight. In the last game between these two teams the Mavs had some problems to win due to a huge performance from Monta Ellis who ended the game with a career high 46 points while shooting 17-23 from the field - still the Warriors lost by 9 points! Note that the Warriors had only 13 assists vs. 21 turnovers which tell us that they are playing selfish basketball as of late and they can't secure the ball as well. In fact, in the last 2 games they had 36 assists vs. 44 turnovers! Also in that game, the Warriors had an unexpected and rare edge in the boards 15-7 in offensive boards - it was the first time in 10 games that they had more boards than their opponents so for tonight I don't think that the Warriors will have a similar edge tonight.
Corey Maggette is banged up for tonight and some reports are saying that he is out for tonight. Nevertheless the Warriors have only in Monta Ellis and possibly Stephen Curry their offensive anchors and this isn't enough to win. For some reason they are 0-8 in the last games with the only win being against…the Nets!
The Mavericks will come for this game with a huge sense of urgency due to their bad stretch as of late: "We're disappointed with the way we've been playing," Carlisle said after practice Sunday. "We're looking forward to [tonight]. We want to end the first 52 games of the season on a high note."
Take the Mavericks in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Dallas Mavericks (-4)</dd></dl>
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Kings/Ducks UNDER 5.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":
The Kings seek their 10th straight win and sixth in a row over the Ducks as the teams meet for the second time in five days Monday night in Anaheim.
Los Angeles has solidified its position during a nine-game winning streak, which continued Saturday with a dramatic 4-3 victory over Detroit. The Kings trailed 3-0 after one period, but erased the deficit in the second and won when Michal Handzus scored with 2:21 left.
A strong defense in front of Jonathan Quick has helped. Kings coach Terry Murray stuck with the young goalie after the rocky first period and Quick responded, picking up his 34th win - one shy of Mario Lessard’s single-season franchise record set in 1980-81.
Keep in mind that the total has gone "under" in eight of Los Angeles's last twelve on the road.
On the other side of the rink: The Ducks hope to benefit from three days off since the defeat to the Kings. They allowed a total of two goals while winning three straight before losing to the Kings.
Jonas Hiller went 4-0-0 with a 0.74 GAA in his first four starts against the Kings, but lost his last five matchups with them, posting a 4.59 GAA in that stretch. Quick, meanwhile, is 5-0-0 with a 2.60 GAA in his young career against the Ducks.
Remember, the total has gone "under" the number in five of Anaheim's last six overall.
Bottom line: When taking all of the above factors into consideration the sharp money in this one is indeed on the UNDER!
*6* UNDER.[/FONT]
Kings/Ducks UNDER 5.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":
The Kings seek their 10th straight win and sixth in a row over the Ducks as the teams meet for the second time in five days Monday night in Anaheim.
Los Angeles has solidified its position during a nine-game winning streak, which continued Saturday with a dramatic 4-3 victory over Detroit. The Kings trailed 3-0 after one period, but erased the deficit in the second and won when Michal Handzus scored with 2:21 left.
A strong defense in front of Jonathan Quick has helped. Kings coach Terry Murray stuck with the young goalie after the rocky first period and Quick responded, picking up his 34th win - one shy of Mario Lessard’s single-season franchise record set in 1980-81.
Keep in mind that the total has gone "under" in eight of Los Angeles's last twelve on the road.
On the other side of the rink: The Ducks hope to benefit from three days off since the defeat to the Kings. They allowed a total of two goals while winning three straight before losing to the Kings.
Jonas Hiller went 4-0-0 with a 0.74 GAA in his first four starts against the Kings, but lost his last five matchups with them, posting a 4.59 GAA in that stretch. Quick, meanwhile, is 5-0-0 with a 2.60 GAA in his young career against the Ducks.
Remember, the total has gone "under" the number in five of Anaheim's last six overall.
Bottom line: When taking all of the above factors into consideration the sharp money in this one is indeed on the UNDER!
*6* UNDER.[/FONT]
Spartan
TEXAS +2
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Texas at home in the role of underdog, okay I'll take them. I fully expect a monster effort from the Horns tonight as conference rival and #1 ranked Kansas comes into Austin for a nationally televised showdown. I think both teams were caught looking ahead saturday as Kansas prevailed but looked lackluster against Nebraska and Texas got ambushed in Norman against the Sooners. Make no mistake about it, these are two excellent teams that can both push deep into the tourney come march. Texas desperately needs this game at home and will be looking for its fourth straight victory over the Jayhawks in Austin. We all know the players by now but I will note that it will be key for Pittman to hold his own against Aldrich down in the post, if he loses his composure and gets into foul trouble it will not bode well for the Horns. Plus, in all candor, although I really like Texas in this spot at home and am releasing it as a double star, the primary reason I could not go with a triple star is because of the downright pathetic free throw shooting exhibited by Barnes kids. They have been a lousy 52% from the line the last six games including an inept 10 of 27 against Oklahoma saturday. In a game that figures to be close to the end that is troublesome to say the least. In the end, I feel Texas is one of the few teams that can match up athletically with KU and I look for an electric atmosphere in Austin. Winning on the road in the Big 12 is a mountain to climb as we saw with Kansas and their last road game at Colorado, an overtime cage match. Trust me, this Texas club is in a different league than the Buffs, they will be waiting, willing and able. Double Star on Texas at home getting the 2 points guys![/FONT]
TEXAS +2
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Texas at home in the role of underdog, okay I'll take them. I fully expect a monster effort from the Horns tonight as conference rival and #1 ranked Kansas comes into Austin for a nationally televised showdown. I think both teams were caught looking ahead saturday as Kansas prevailed but looked lackluster against Nebraska and Texas got ambushed in Norman against the Sooners. Make no mistake about it, these are two excellent teams that can both push deep into the tourney come march. Texas desperately needs this game at home and will be looking for its fourth straight victory over the Jayhawks in Austin. We all know the players by now but I will note that it will be key for Pittman to hold his own against Aldrich down in the post, if he loses his composure and gets into foul trouble it will not bode well for the Horns. Plus, in all candor, although I really like Texas in this spot at home and am releasing it as a double star, the primary reason I could not go with a triple star is because of the downright pathetic free throw shooting exhibited by Barnes kids. They have been a lousy 52% from the line the last six games including an inept 10 of 27 against Oklahoma saturday. In a game that figures to be close to the end that is troublesome to say the least. In the end, I feel Texas is one of the few teams that can match up athletically with KU and I look for an electric atmosphere in Austin. Winning on the road in the Big 12 is a mountain to climb as we saw with Kansas and their last road game at Colorado, an overtime cage match. Trust me, this Texas club is in a different league than the Buffs, they will be waiting, willing and able. Double Star on Texas at home getting the 2 points guys![/FONT]
Ron Raymond
Hornets/Magic OVER 194.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]When ANY NBA Team Played as Road team as a Underdog - Total is between 190 to 195 - Last 4 years - Coming off a 4-7 point win - Scored between 101 - 105 POINTS FOR in their last game; the OVER is 11-5-1 for the Road Underdog in this spot.
Take the OVER.[/FONT]
Hornets/Magic OVER 194.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]When ANY NBA Team Played as Road team as a Underdog - Total is between 190 to 195 - Last 4 years - Coming off a 4-7 point win - Scored between 101 - 105 POINTS FOR in their last game; the OVER is 11-5-1 for the Road Underdog in this spot.
Take the OVER.[/FONT]
Tony George
KANSAS -1
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Texas off a loss as predicted in the forum on Saturday by your truely, and 1-9 ATS their last 10. Longhorns at home is tempting, but KU's post game and depth too much to overcome for inconsistent Longhorns. KU is 11 ppg on defense in their klast 5 games and Aldridge will own the paint. KU can push the ball, recover from being down and rotate players and schemes that will be no match for Texas. KU loves Biog Monday, 16-5 ATS their last 21 appearances on ESPN Monday.
Play 1 Unit on Kansas.[/FONT]
KANSAS -1
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Texas off a loss as predicted in the forum on Saturday by your truely, and 1-9 ATS their last 10. Longhorns at home is tempting, but KU's post game and depth too much to overcome for inconsistent Longhorns. KU is 11 ppg on defense in their klast 5 games and Aldridge will own the paint. KU can push the ball, recover from being down and rotate players and schemes that will be no match for Texas. KU loves Biog Monday, 16-5 ATS their last 21 appearances on ESPN Monday.
Play 1 Unit on Kansas.[/FONT]
Lenny Del Genio
TEXAS +2
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Off a SU loss at Oklahoma, their fourth SU loss overall in six games, and now hosting the #1 ranked team in the country, this game is "must win" territory for the Longhorns. Now 1-7 ATS in league play this season, Texas lost its last home game, 80-77 in OT to Baylor. As we've noted before, just because a team "must" win a game does not neccessarily mean that they will and considering the way the Longhorns have played recently, it would be easy to justify a play on top-ranked Kansas. However, we're not going to do that. The last time the Jayhawks played here in Austin, they lost 72-69 and note that they were favored in that game as well. The previous visit before that resulted in a 25-point loss. The time before that, it was 15. Getting back to this year, Kansas has failed to cash three straight games and over the last three seasons is 0-9 ATS after having won 18 or more of their previous 20 games. Meanwhile, since '97, Texas is 13-3 ATS at home when playing for the second time in three days. Most important here is the fact that the Longhorns have won six straight games at home vs. teams ranked in the top five. Texas is our 20* Big Monday Game of the Month. [/FONT]
TEXAS +2
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Off a SU loss at Oklahoma, their fourth SU loss overall in six games, and now hosting the #1 ranked team in the country, this game is "must win" territory for the Longhorns. Now 1-7 ATS in league play this season, Texas lost its last home game, 80-77 in OT to Baylor. As we've noted before, just because a team "must" win a game does not neccessarily mean that they will and considering the way the Longhorns have played recently, it would be easy to justify a play on top-ranked Kansas. However, we're not going to do that. The last time the Jayhawks played here in Austin, they lost 72-69 and note that they were favored in that game as well. The previous visit before that resulted in a 25-point loss. The time before that, it was 15. Getting back to this year, Kansas has failed to cash three straight games and over the last three seasons is 0-9 ATS after having won 18 or more of their previous 20 games. Meanwhile, since '97, Texas is 13-3 ATS at home when playing for the second time in three days. Most important here is the fact that the Longhorns have won six straight games at home vs. teams ranked in the top five. Texas is our 20* Big Monday Game of the Month. [/FONT]
RON RAYMOND
Philadelphia -110
The Devils have not been a better hockey team with Kovalchuk in the line up, they were lucky to beat Toronto on Friday night and lost 3-1 to the Rangers on Saturday. Home ice advantage here for Flyers and it’s not that expensive. When PHILADELPHIA team played as a home team - Last 3 years - After a non division game - Coming off a 2 game losing streak; the Flyers are 9-2 SU in this role.
Philadelphia -110
The Devils have not been a better hockey team with Kovalchuk in the line up, they were lucky to beat Toronto on Friday night and lost 3-1 to the Rangers on Saturday. Home ice advantage here for Flyers and it’s not that expensive. When PHILADELPHIA team played as a home team - Last 3 years - After a non division game - Coming off a 2 game losing streak; the Flyers are 9-2 SU in this role.
King Creole
2* GSW / DAL Over 218
On Saturday, we went 'UNDER' in the Warriors / Thunder game and came away with an EASY 16-point win. We switch gears to the 'OVER' on Monday night as the reeling Dallas Mavericks (0-6 ATS last 6) come to town. This is a series with VERY high-scoring tendencies when playing in the Bay Area. DALLAS and GOLDEN STATE have gone 8-2 O/U in the last 10 meetings here... and that includes 7-1 O/U when Dallas is laying points on the road (like tonight).
As mentioned, Dallas comes in on a 7-game ATS losing streak... while Golden State has lost eight STRAIGHT games themselves.7-1-1 O/U last 10 years: All NBA teams off 7+ SU losses in a row (Warriors)... vs an opponent off 6+ ATS losses in a row (Mavs).
4-0 O/U last 2 years: All NBA road favs of 10 < points -playing off 6 or more ATS losses in a row (Mavs).
5-0 O/U since Dec: All NBA favs of 3 > points playing off a SU loss in which they were a DOUBLE-DIGIT favorite (Mavs).
16-4 O/U last 12 months: All Non-Division teams playing off BB ATS losses in which they were a favorite of -9 > points in each game (Mavs). And when the OU Line in these games is > 195 points (like tonight), the result improve to a PERFECT 7-0 O/U.
3-0 O/U this season: All Western Conference home dogs playing off 7 or more SU losses in a row (Warriors).
8-2 O/U last 4 weeks: All Western Conference underdogs playing off 3 or more 'UNDERS' in a row (Warriors)... when the OU line is 200 > points.
10-2 O/U since Dec: All Western Conference home teams in a '1/2' REST situation (Warriors)... versus a Western Conference opponent (Mavs). When the OU line is 200 > points in these games, the results are a PERFECT 3-0 O/U.
4-1 O/U this season: All MONDAY NBA games in which the OU line is > 217 points.
2* GSW / DAL Over 218
On Saturday, we went 'UNDER' in the Warriors / Thunder game and came away with an EASY 16-point win. We switch gears to the 'OVER' on Monday night as the reeling Dallas Mavericks (0-6 ATS last 6) come to town. This is a series with VERY high-scoring tendencies when playing in the Bay Area. DALLAS and GOLDEN STATE have gone 8-2 O/U in the last 10 meetings here... and that includes 7-1 O/U when Dallas is laying points on the road (like tonight).
As mentioned, Dallas comes in on a 7-game ATS losing streak... while Golden State has lost eight STRAIGHT games themselves.7-1-1 O/U last 10 years: All NBA teams off 7+ SU losses in a row (Warriors)... vs an opponent off 6+ ATS losses in a row (Mavs).
4-0 O/U last 2 years: All NBA road favs of 10 < points -playing off 6 or more ATS losses in a row (Mavs).
5-0 O/U since Dec: All NBA favs of 3 > points playing off a SU loss in which they were a DOUBLE-DIGIT favorite (Mavs).
16-4 O/U last 12 months: All Non-Division teams playing off BB ATS losses in which they were a favorite of -9 > points in each game (Mavs). And when the OU Line in these games is > 195 points (like tonight), the result improve to a PERFECT 7-0 O/U.
3-0 O/U this season: All Western Conference home dogs playing off 7 or more SU losses in a row (Warriors).
8-2 O/U last 4 weeks: All Western Conference underdogs playing off 3 or more 'UNDERS' in a row (Warriors)... when the OU line is 200 > points.
10-2 O/U since Dec: All Western Conference home teams in a '1/2' REST situation (Warriors)... versus a Western Conference opponent (Mavs). When the OU line is 200 > points in these games, the results are a PERFECT 3-0 O/U.
4-1 O/U this season: All MONDAY NBA games in which the OU line is > 217 points.
The Duke's Sports
Kansas Over (153) for 2 Units
This series has gone 5-1 O/U and we still see value with the "over". Texas likes to run on their home floor vs the Big 12 going 3-1 O/U in that role tonight, we'll look for the Longhorns to attempt to out shoot Kansas in a full court frenzied pace. The Longhorns surely won't win with defense; after all, they've surrendered 78 ppg over their last 5 outings, and their won't be a quick fix vs the potent offensive Jayhawks. Both of these teams, as a matter of fact, have prolific scoring capability and average around 84 ppg. Kansas is 5-1 O/U vs a team with a winning SU record and 6-2 O/U as a favorite in this spread range. TX, on the other hand, is 5-1 O/U vs a team with a winning SU record, 5-1 O/U as a home dog in this spread range and should pull out all stops to get back in the upper tier of the AP polls after a precipitous slide.
Kansas Over (153) for 2 Units
This series has gone 5-1 O/U and we still see value with the "over". Texas likes to run on their home floor vs the Big 12 going 3-1 O/U in that role tonight, we'll look for the Longhorns to attempt to out shoot Kansas in a full court frenzied pace. The Longhorns surely won't win with defense; after all, they've surrendered 78 ppg over their last 5 outings, and their won't be a quick fix vs the potent offensive Jayhawks. Both of these teams, as a matter of fact, have prolific scoring capability and average around 84 ppg. Kansas is 5-1 O/U vs a team with a winning SU record and 6-2 O/U as a favorite in this spread range. TX, on the other hand, is 5-1 O/U vs a team with a winning SU record, 5-1 O/U as a home dog in this spread range and should pull out all stops to get back in the upper tier of the AP polls after a precipitous slide.
