Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Idaho State +15 over MONTANA: Idaho State is just 8-14 on the year, but they have gone 6-4 in the Big Sky, so they have turned it around in conference play. Yes they have turned it around, especially of late as they come in on a four game roll, which includes a win over Weber State and an a road win over Montana State. The biggest reason for the Bengals turnaround is at the offensive end, where they have averaged 72.8 ppg in their last 4 games (Regulation Only) compared to their season average of 66.3 ppg. Tonight's task won't be easy though as the Grizzlies come in allowing 59.8 ppg on 39.9% shooting, but i really feel that the Bengals can meet them somewhere in the middle of the two numbers, as they are playing with great confidence on the offensive end. Defense, though, has not been good for them of late, as they have allowed 76.8 ppg in their last 5 overall and 72.9 ppg on the road this year, but they have allowed 67 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games and the first time these teams met they allowed the Grizzlies just 68 points. Montana is 9-2 at home, but have outscored their opponents by just 8.6 ppg, while Idaho State has been outscored by 11.1 ppg on the road. The Bengals lost by 24 at home to the Grizlies earlier in the year, but that was at a time when they weren't playing that well. The are now and should be able to keep this one much closer than the first meeting. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play against a home team after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games. This play is 42-13 the last 5 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Davidson/ Wofford Under 136.5: Davidson games have been averaging in the mid 140's on up and a lot of that is due to the fact that they have averaged 77 p;pg overall and 82.5 ppg at home, but I don't see them hitting either number tonight. Wofford has played great defense this year, allowing 61.5 ppg overall and 63.4 ppg on the road and they should be able to hold this strong Davidson offense team to 70 or less here. Wofford on offense is where we will reall get some help here. The Terriers have averaged 64.7 ppg overall, but on the road they have really struggled to score, putting up just 58.7 ppg on 40.2% shooting. The Terriers have also struggled from beyond the arc (33.9 % overall and 32.5% on the road) and in their FT shooting (65.8% overall and 60.4% on the road), so this is a unit that has problems scoring in any facet of their offense. Making it even harder for them to score is the fact that Davidson comes in playing great defense right now, allowing just 61 ppg on 39.9% shooting in their last 5 games. Wofford's scoring has been up of late, but I feel Davidson will shut the down tonight, while the Wildcats will have their own problems scoring vs this tough Terriers defense. Around 130 at best here.
Louisville/ Connecticut Over 129: Google News Play. I know that both teams have played great defense this year, but there are certain areas that both teams have had problems at that end of the floor, which could lead to this game being a bit high scoring. Neither team has defensed the perimeter all that well this year as the Huskies have allowed 34%, while Losuiville has allowed 33.3% and while neither team has been great at shooting the three ball, both teams have it as part of their offense and should get some solid looks in this one. The Huskies have really struggled on offense of late, but they did get it going in their last game as they put up 69 points on a good Seton Hall team over the weekend. The Huskies do like to push the ball and the Cardinals should oblige as they also need the uptempo game to be effective. Louisville has been able to get their running game going of late and it has translated into 73.8 ppg in their last 4 games, while they have hit 76 points or more in each of their last 3 home games. Let's also note that this should be a close game through out and that could also lead to a fouling game at the end. Still im not sure we will need the late FT's as this game could have gone OVER before the last 2 minutes are even played.
Missouri/ Oklahoma Under 145.5: I'm gonna stay away from the side in this one, but I do like the total The big win over the Jayhawks over the weekend may just aid us in this totals play as well as I expect Missouri to come out a bit flat and that should keep their scoring down in this one. Helping us out as well is the fact that the Sooners have allowed just 64.9 ppg on 40.8% shooting at home this year. The Tigers have not played great defense on the road this year, but then again the Sooners have had some troubles scoring of late as they have averaged just 67 ppg in their last 5 games. I do believe this is a letdown-look-ahead- spot for the Tigers and i do not see them going all out especially at the offensive end, while the Sooners will not be able to score much vs this tigers group that has allowed just 62.3 ppg in their last 3 games. Missouri will play this game just looking to do enough to get out with a win and that should have this one being played in the 130's and not 140's. KEY TREND--- OKLAHOMA is 14-5 UNDER (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
2 UNIT PLAY
Texas -3 over TEXAS A&M: In their last 6 games Texas has a 1 point loss to Missouri, a 3 point loss to KY, a 5 point loss to Baylor a win over Iowa State and a 4 point loss at Kansas State. This is a team that is right on the edge of finishing this year strong and I believe it starts tonight. Let's also play against an underdog after successfully covering the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. This play is 38-13 over the last 5 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAY
LOUISVILLE -4 over UConn: Thje Huskies got a win over seton Hall over the weekend, but the pirates are fading. Louisville is the better team and should win going away.