Sportswagers
Arkansas @Texas
Texas +7 -105 over Arkansas
Advocare V100 Texas Bowl – NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
9:00 PM EST. The line at the time of this writing is +6½ but we’re going to wait until much later in the day to make this wager because we’re sure we are going to get +7 by game time. We’re posting in at +7 in anticipation of that key number.
Arkansas and Texas will renew a rivalry here in the most incredulous of venues, the Texas Bowl. Nevertheless, both teams enter on contrasting notes. The Razorbacks were once regarded as a road favorite against the defending SEC East champion Missouri, further characterizing the sportsbook’s faith in a football team that had a losing record against a squad that only lost twice. Bret Bielma has the largest offensive and defensive lines in the country and they have served as backbones for a consistent and punishing rushing attack and a stout defense. This is the same Arkansas squad that trounced Mississippi in Fayetteville and eliminated the Rebels from any hope of a College Football Playoff berth. To further embellish upon the Hogs’ accolades, they have an edge in every statistical category compared to Texas.
So why pick Texas? Well for one, because everyone else has faith in Arkansas and because both these teams are proficient in rushing the football. Games of this nature are very often settled in the final minutes by a field goal. We are banking on a spirited effort from the Longhorns and anticipate ‘Horns Coach Charlie Strong getting his team motivated in a virtual home game for Texas. The ‘Horns offensive line is making progress and the backs have improved all season. The Longhorns' defense has made life difficult for opposing quarterbacks all year, ranking seventh nationally in lowest opponent passer rating, and among the top 10 in several other pass defense metrics. Will a month off between games, this one figures to be a low-scoring affair, which is another reason the points are appealing.
Our Pick
Texas +7 -105 (Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)
Texas A&M vs West Virginia
Texas A&M +112 over West Virginia
AutoZone Liberty Bowl – Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, TN
2:00 PM EST. The Mountaineers will be without quarterback Clint Trickett, who recently announced his retirement from football due to concussions. Sophomore Skyler Howard is now the Mountaineers starting QB. In three games, including a start versus Iowa State in WVU’s last game of the regular season, Howard threw for 483 yards and five touchdowns. He’s not Clint Trickett but he’s proven he can play at this level in a small sample size, which is always a bit concerning. The Mountaineers have plenty of weapons on the outside to get the job done against a porous Texas A&M defense. Howard has performed better than expected but now he’s on a big stage with the entire nation watching. The question is how well he performs against an Aggies secondary that scares nobody but has also faced some of the best teams in the country. The Mountaineers have some great games this year against a very tough schedule. They came within a whisker of defeating TCU (lost 31-30) and they also lost by just 10 to Alabama in their season opener. Throw in victories over Baylor and K-State and it would be easy to jump on board with these Mountaineers. However, West Virginia may be in trouble here. Through most of the year WVU’s defense had been the surprise toast of the town. Newly promoted defensive coordinator Tony Gibson and 2014 addition Tom Bradley are indeed better fits than the departed Keith Patterson but context tells a different story than the impressive raw numbers. The Mountaineers' defensive resume is built on shutting down the sad-sack offenses of Towson and Kansas, plus an upset of a Baylor team that turned in the sloppiest, most self-destructive and unfocused performance of the Art Briles era. At least six other teams had a well-above average day against a Mountaineers defense that the overall season stats claim is a solid unit. Four defenses have held down each of Alabama, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma better than West Virginia's did; five defenses had better days against Maryland and six against Texas Tech so don't get fooled into thinking that West Virginia is some complete team ready to win a big game.
For A&M, their season began on an explosive note. The Aggies crushed South Carolina in their road opener and they would follow up with two more wins to start off 3-0. Then the trouble began, as the Aggies would lose three in a row, capped off by a suffering an embarrassing 59-0 rout to Alabama. That loss really sticks out when you consider that WVU lost to ‘Bama by just 10. The Aggies in just three weeks went from a top-five ranked team to the goat of the SEC West. The distractions would continue when quarterback Kenny Hill was suspended for a game. However, the Aggies would shock the world when they would defeat Auburn as a twenty-point underdog. The Aggies have been brilliantly inconsistent all year so it’s anyone’s guess which version will show up here. However, we do like that the Aggies let go some of its bird-brained coaches in defensive coordinator Mark Snyder, offensive line coach B.J. Anderson and receivers coach David Beaty. With an inexperienced QB, WVU will have to prepare for something that they’ve never seen on film because of the Aggies coaching exodus. Texas A&M can certainly shoot it out with West Virginia and we’re betting that it will be the Mountaineers that stall first and more often. Aggies outright.
Our Pick
Texas A&M +112 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.24)