The real Matt Rivers of OffshoreInsiders.com pick is on the under 56 in the Bowl game between Georgia Tech and Air Force.
I am not going to write War and Peace here because there are a few simple factors that I am buying into here and that is enough for me to believe there will be less points than the oddsmaker seems to believe.
For one, both teams run this triple option attack and therefore both defenses play against it on a daily basis in practice and also have had a few extra weeks to prepare for it in this game which can be nothing but advantageous. This is not a regular week where an opponent gets its three or four days to prepare for a much different offense. These squads have had ample amount of time to figure out what they pretty much already know. Certainly executing is another step in defending today’s foe but both defenses will be as prepared as any team ever could be against the option.
I also am all about the under as throwing the ball is not the norm for either squad and therefore we will see a lot of running and consequentially a lot of the clock ticking down. In the college game the clock obviously will stop when there’s a first down but we are going to see a lot of runs leading to a lot of time running down. With both teams understanding the opposing offense I just do not see big plays being the norm here, I really don’t. The defenses should be fairly disciplined and stay with their assignments until the end of plays limiting those 50 yard gallops.
It’s unusual to see a game like this and I really believe it is keeping the oddsmakers a bit off balance. Look for the defenses to be a step in front and for this thing to not get into the 50’s in the end.
For more information: Matt Rivers said I needed a quality Sunday and that is exactly what I got as the 400,000* Bears and 200,000* Redskins came through with flying colors. Washington obviously even won in the outright. I’m looking forward to another winning day here on Monday as I am releasing plays from basically three difference sports and all of the games involving teams from Hotlanta. Another 400,000* is here in this game from the Georgia Dome between the Saints and Falcons along with a pair of 200,000* involving Georgia Tech and Air Force on the gridiron and Fordham and Georgia Tech on the hardwoods. Three plays, three winners, no problem at OffshoreInsiders.com
The Yellow Jackets come into this game at 6-6 straight up and 5-6 against the spread. Air Force is 8-4 outright, but just 4-7 according to the sportsbooks.
The Ramblin’ Wreck average 5.6 yards per rush teams that normally allow 4.6, but get just 6.8 passing yards per attempt to 7.0 and accumulating 5.9 yards per play defenses that allow an average of 5.5.
Tech has been benevolent on defense allowing 4.6 yards per rush to teams normally getting just 4.1, 7.3 yards per pass to 6.8 and 5.8 yards per play to 5.4.
Air Force generates a sensational 5.5 yards per rush versus squads usually permitting 4.7, a fantastic 9.9 passing yards per attempt to 7.5 and 6.2 yards per play to 5.8.
The Falcons are generous against the run, but stingy against the pass. They allow 4.8 yards per carry teams that usually get just 4.1 but a miserly 6.1 passing yards per attempt to 7.2 for 5.3 yards per play to 5.4.
Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): GA Tech is 1-6 off spread win.
The Falcons are 2-7 as a favorite of 0.5-3.0, 2-7 overall, 1-7 after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game, and 0-5 off straight up win.
Over/under trends: Tech has gone under 9-2 as an underdog of 0.5-3.0 and under 36-16 overall as a pup. Air Force has gone under five straight laying three or less.
Georgia Tech vs. Air Force in the Independence Bowl.
In comparing yards per rush on offense, the healthier records go to GA Tech by .1.
Insofar as passing yards per completion on the offensive side of the ball, the advantage is for Air Force by .8.
According to yards per point, the not wasteful offense is Air Force by 1.4.
Defensively the more miserly team based on yards per rush is the Ramblin’ Wreck of Georgia Tech by .2.
The more exceptional defense based on the stipulation of passing yards per completion is Air Force.
The yards per point statistic used by the best sports handicappers says the better defense is Air Force by 1.3.
The Falcons have a turnover margin of three better.
I am not going to write War and Peace here because there are a few simple factors that I am buying into here and that is enough for me to believe there will be less points than the oddsmaker seems to believe.
For one, both teams run this triple option attack and therefore both defenses play against it on a daily basis in practice and also have had a few extra weeks to prepare for it in this game which can be nothing but advantageous. This is not a regular week where an opponent gets its three or four days to prepare for a much different offense. These squads have had ample amount of time to figure out what they pretty much already know. Certainly executing is another step in defending today’s foe but both defenses will be as prepared as any team ever could be against the option.
I also am all about the under as throwing the ball is not the norm for either squad and therefore we will see a lot of running and consequentially a lot of the clock ticking down. In the college game the clock obviously will stop when there’s a first down but we are going to see a lot of runs leading to a lot of time running down. With both teams understanding the opposing offense I just do not see big plays being the norm here, I really don’t. The defenses should be fairly disciplined and stay with their assignments until the end of plays limiting those 50 yard gallops.
It’s unusual to see a game like this and I really believe it is keeping the oddsmakers a bit off balance. Look for the defenses to be a step in front and for this thing to not get into the 50’s in the end.
For more information: Matt Rivers said I needed a quality Sunday and that is exactly what I got as the 400,000* Bears and 200,000* Redskins came through with flying colors. Washington obviously even won in the outright. I’m looking forward to another winning day here on Monday as I am releasing plays from basically three difference sports and all of the games involving teams from Hotlanta. Another 400,000* is here in this game from the Georgia Dome between the Saints and Falcons along with a pair of 200,000* involving Georgia Tech and Air Force on the gridiron and Fordham and Georgia Tech on the hardwoods. Three plays, three winners, no problem at OffshoreInsiders.com
The Yellow Jackets come into this game at 6-6 straight up and 5-6 against the spread. Air Force is 8-4 outright, but just 4-7 according to the sportsbooks.
The Ramblin’ Wreck average 5.6 yards per rush teams that normally allow 4.6, but get just 6.8 passing yards per attempt to 7.0 and accumulating 5.9 yards per play defenses that allow an average of 5.5.
Tech has been benevolent on defense allowing 4.6 yards per rush to teams normally getting just 4.1, 7.3 yards per pass to 6.8 and 5.8 yards per play to 5.4.
Air Force generates a sensational 5.5 yards per rush versus squads usually permitting 4.7, a fantastic 9.9 passing yards per attempt to 7.5 and 6.2 yards per play to 5.8.
The Falcons are generous against the run, but stingy against the pass. They allow 4.8 yards per carry teams that usually get just 4.1 but a miserly 6.1 passing yards per attempt to 7.2 for 5.3 yards per play to 5.4.
Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): GA Tech is 1-6 off spread win.
The Falcons are 2-7 as a favorite of 0.5-3.0, 2-7 overall, 1-7 after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game, and 0-5 off straight up win.
Over/under trends: Tech has gone under 9-2 as an underdog of 0.5-3.0 and under 36-16 overall as a pup. Air Force has gone under five straight laying three or less.
Georgia Tech vs. Air Force in the Independence Bowl.
In comparing yards per rush on offense, the healthier records go to GA Tech by .1.
Insofar as passing yards per completion on the offensive side of the ball, the advantage is for Air Force by .8.
According to yards per point, the not wasteful offense is Air Force by 1.4.
Defensively the more miserly team based on yards per rush is the Ramblin’ Wreck of Georgia Tech by .2.
The more exceptional defense based on the stipulation of passing yards per completion is Air Force.
The yards per point statistic used by the best sports handicappers says the better defense is Air Force by 1.3.
The Falcons have a turnover margin of three better.
Today's NHL Picks
Boston at Florida
The Panthers look to take advantage of a Boston team that is 1-4 in its last 5 road games. Florida is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Florida (+105). Here are all of today's picks.
MONDAY, DECEMBER 27
Time Posted 8:30 a.m. EST Game 1-2: NY Islanders at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.650; NY Rangers 12.696
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 3-4: Minnesota at Columbus (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.797; Columbus 10.102
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+135); Under
Game 5-6: Boston at Florida (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.135; Florida 12.623
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+105); Under Game 7-8: Buffalo at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 10.644; Calgary 11.790
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-135); Over
Game 9-10: Detroit at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.072; Colorado 11.083
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 11-12: Los Angeles at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 13.098; San Jose 12.057
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+150); Over
Boston at Florida
The Panthers look to take advantage of a Boston team that is 1-4 in its last 5 road games. Florida is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Florida (+105). Here are all of today's picks.
MONDAY, DECEMBER 27
Time Posted 8:30 a.m. EST Game 1-2: NY Islanders at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.650; NY Rangers 12.696
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 3-4: Minnesota at Columbus (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.797; Columbus 10.102
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+135); Under
Game 5-6: Boston at Florida (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.135; Florida 12.623
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+105); Under Game 7-8: Buffalo at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 10.644; Calgary 11.790
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-135); Over
Game 9-10: Detroit at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.072; Colorado 11.083
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 11-12: Los Angeles at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 13.098; San Jose 12.057
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+150); Over
Today's NBA Picks
Dallas at Oklahoma City
The Mavericks look to build on their 8-0 ATS record in their last 8 games as an underdog of 1 to 4 1/2 points. Dallas is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+2). Here are all of today's picks.
MONDAY, DECEMBER 27
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 701-702: Orlando at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 125.165; New Jersey 116.737
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 8 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 6; 189
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-6); Under
Game 703-704: Detroit at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 112.345; Charlotte 114.520
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 5 1/2; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+5 1/2); Over
Game 705-706: Dallas at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 120.011; Oklahoma City 120.434
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 2; 204
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+2); Over
Game 707-708: Atlanta at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 115.714; Milwaukee 120.911
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 5; 176
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 2; 179
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-2); Under
Game 709-710: Toronto at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 110.475; Memphis 117.945
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 7 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 5; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-5); Over
Game 711-712: New Orleans at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 116.560; Minnesota 114.797
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 4; 201
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+4); Under
Game 713-714: Washington at Houston (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 112.410; Houston 124.177
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 12; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 9 1/2; 204
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-9 1/2); Under
Game 715-716: Portland at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 115.890; Utah 121.960
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 6; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 8 1/2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+8 1/2); Over
Game 717-718: LA Clippers at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 112.825; Sacramento 114.785
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 2; 187
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 1; 194
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-1); Under
Game 719-720: Philadelphia at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 113.085; Golden State 118.026
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 5; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 3; 204
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-3); Over
Dallas at Oklahoma City
The Mavericks look to build on their 8-0 ATS record in their last 8 games as an underdog of 1 to 4 1/2 points. Dallas is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+2). Here are all of today's picks.
MONDAY, DECEMBER 27
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 701-702: Orlando at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 125.165; New Jersey 116.737
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 8 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 6; 189
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-6); Under
Game 703-704: Detroit at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 112.345; Charlotte 114.520
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 5 1/2; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+5 1/2); Over
Game 705-706: Dallas at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 120.011; Oklahoma City 120.434
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 2; 204
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+2); Over
Game 707-708: Atlanta at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 115.714; Milwaukee 120.911
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 5; 176
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 2; 179
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-2); Under
Game 709-710: Toronto at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 110.475; Memphis 117.945
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 7 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 5; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-5); Over
Game 711-712: New Orleans at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 116.560; Minnesota 114.797
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 4; 201
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+4); Under
Game 713-714: Washington at Houston (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 112.410; Houston 124.177
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 12; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 9 1/2; 204
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-9 1/2); Under
Game 715-716: Portland at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 115.890; Utah 121.960
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 6; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 8 1/2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+8 1/2); Over
Game 717-718: LA Clippers at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 112.825; Sacramento 114.785
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 2; 187
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 1; 194
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-1); Under
Game 719-720: Philadelphia at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 113.085; Golden State 118.026
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 5; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 3; 204
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-3); Over
Today's NFL Picks
New Orleans at Atlanta
The Saints look to bounce back from their 30-24 loss to Baltimore last week and build on their 16-5 ATS record in their last 21 games following a SU defeat. New Orleans is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.
MONDAY, DECEMBER 27
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (12/15)
Game 131-132: New Orleans at Atlanta (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 137.157; Atlanta 138.337
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 53
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+3); Over
New Orleans at Atlanta
The Saints look to bounce back from their 30-24 loss to Baltimore last week and build on their 16-5 ATS record in their last 21 games following a SU defeat. New Orleans is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.
MONDAY, DECEMBER 27
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (12/15)
Game 131-132: New Orleans at Atlanta (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 137.157; Atlanta 138.337
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 53
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+3); Over
NBA
Write-Up
Monday, December 27
Hot Teams
-- Nets covered six of last eight games as a home underdog.
-- Mavericks won last four games, covered five of last seven. Thunder won seven of their last nine games.
-- Grizzlies covered eight of their last ten games.
-- Rockets won/covered six of their last eight games.
-- Jazz won four of their last five games.
-- Clippers won four of their last five games.
-- Warriors won last two games, covered three of last four. 76ers are 6-1 vs spread in their last seven road games.
Cold Teams
-- Orlando is 2-6 as a road favorite.
-- Pistons are 1-4-1 vs spread in last six games as road dog. Bobcats lost six of their last seven games (2-5 vs spread).
-- Hawks covered one of their last five as a road underdog. Milwaukee is 3-6-1 vs spread in last ten games as home favorite.
-- Raptors lost four of their last five games.
-- Minnesota lost seven of last eight games, but covered five of last six. Hornets are 0-4 as a road favorite.
-- Wizards lost nine of their last ten games.
-- Portland lost last four road games (1-3 vs spread).
-- Kings lost their last seven games (0-4 vs spread last four).
Totals
-- Five of last seven New Jersey games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Charlotte games stayed under total. Five of Detroit's last seven games went over.
-- Eight of last nine Dallas games went over the total.
-- Last five Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 7-2 in last nine Toronto games.
-- Under is 12-2 in last fourteen Hornet games. Over is 7-3 in last ten Minnesota home games.
-- Last seven Washington games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Houston games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Portland games went over the total. Four of last five Utah games stayed under.
-- Under is 8-3-2 in last thirteen Clipper games.
-- Six of last eight 76er games stayed under. Last three Golden State games went over the total.
Back-to-Back
-- Pistons are 2-3 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Hawks are 3-2 vs spread if they lost the day/night before.
-- Memphis is 5-2-1 vs spread if it played night before.
-- Minnesota is 5-3 vs spread if it played night before; Hornets are 3-3, 2-1 if they won the day before.
-- Wizards are 1-3 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Clippers are 4-1 vs spread on road if they played the night before.
-- 76ers are 6-4 vs spread if they played night before, 2-3 on road.
Write-Up
Monday, December 27
Hot Teams
-- Nets covered six of last eight games as a home underdog.
-- Mavericks won last four games, covered five of last seven. Thunder won seven of their last nine games.
-- Grizzlies covered eight of their last ten games.
-- Rockets won/covered six of their last eight games.
-- Jazz won four of their last five games.
-- Clippers won four of their last five games.
-- Warriors won last two games, covered three of last four. 76ers are 6-1 vs spread in their last seven road games.
Cold Teams
-- Orlando is 2-6 as a road favorite.
-- Pistons are 1-4-1 vs spread in last six games as road dog. Bobcats lost six of their last seven games (2-5 vs spread).
-- Hawks covered one of their last five as a road underdog. Milwaukee is 3-6-1 vs spread in last ten games as home favorite.
-- Raptors lost four of their last five games.
-- Minnesota lost seven of last eight games, but covered five of last six. Hornets are 0-4 as a road favorite.
-- Wizards lost nine of their last ten games.
-- Portland lost last four road games (1-3 vs spread).
-- Kings lost their last seven games (0-4 vs spread last four).
Totals
-- Five of last seven New Jersey games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Charlotte games stayed under total. Five of Detroit's last seven games went over.
-- Eight of last nine Dallas games went over the total.
-- Last five Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 7-2 in last nine Toronto games.
-- Under is 12-2 in last fourteen Hornet games. Over is 7-3 in last ten Minnesota home games.
-- Last seven Washington games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Houston games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Portland games went over the total. Four of last five Utah games stayed under.
-- Under is 8-3-2 in last thirteen Clipper games.
-- Six of last eight 76er games stayed under. Last three Golden State games went over the total.
Back-to-Back
-- Pistons are 2-3 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Hawks are 3-2 vs spread if they lost the day/night before.
-- Memphis is 5-2-1 vs spread if it played night before.
-- Minnesota is 5-3 vs spread if it played night before; Hornets are 3-3, 2-1 if they won the day before.
-- Wizards are 1-3 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Clippers are 4-1 vs spread on road if they played the night before.
-- 76ers are 6-4 vs spread if they played night before, 2-3 on road.
