Service Plays Monday 12/22/08

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Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies Dec 22 2008 8:00PM

<TABLE class=data><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl-p>PICK: Memphis Grizzlies</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Your pick was graded at: 11.5 SPORTSBETTING</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>EXPERT: David Malinsky</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>TITLE: Top of the Ticket</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>EVALUATION: Play Not Evaluated. </TD><TR><TD class=datacell>REASON FOR PICK: 4* #706 MEMPHIS over L. A. LAKERS

The Lakers have such a public reputation right now that even an 0-9 ATS slide does not lead to the oddsmakers having to make any adjustments – if anything the deeper the run goes, the more that we see folks chasing them do the windows on those usual “due” theories. But these struggles are not just to get the money as favorites, but rather to win the games at all – the closed their home stand with a near-miss against a tired New York team, and the first two games of this road trip have been outright losses at Washington and Orlando. Now a team accustomed to the warm climate of Southern California is having to travel during a brutal cold stretch on the east coast, which does little to help their preparation for tonight. And with Phil Jackson aware of the energy level that will be needed tomorrow, when they have to face Chris Paul and the Hornets at the end of a four-in-five cycle, the focus tonight will not be on getting a win of anywhere near the high pointspread, but rather to just get the “W” and move on.

Not that the “W” is automatic for a team struggling badly on defense. Let’s let Lamar Odom do our work for us – "It's just like when we used to play against Phoenix two seasons ago. We always felt like, 'Oh, we're going to get back in the game. They are playing an offensive style of basketball.' I think that's how teams right now might be looking at us … Now, I feel like teams feel like we're going to let them back in the game."</I> After holding their first seven opponents under 100 points to open the season, the Lakers have allowed five of the last seven to break the century mark. And in a tough scheduling cycle, this is not the spot we expect to see a renewal of their intensity on that end of the floor.

Contrast this with the energy that we can expect from the Grizzlies. The last time they took the court was an absolute disaster, that 112-83 drubbing on this court Friday night vs. Charlotte that had Marc Iavaorni benching the starters for much of the second half. It was a total non-effort, but with the entire weekend off to build frustrations off of that defeat, this is the ideal spot to play this class of team to bounce back with some fire. They are not good enough to beat the Lakers, but they are athletic enough to attack aggressively, and be in the hunt until the closing stages.

:cripwalk::pope::nohead::dancefool:lol::party::smoker2::finger::tongue2::drink::grandmais
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indiancowboy


4 Unit Play. #726. Take East Carolina Pirates +9 over Wake Forest. (Saturday @ 7pm est). This is our Underdog GOW.



7-1 NFL Run and 3-0 NFL Week.



Yesterday: 3-2



Loyola Maryland +6.5 Over UC Davis (Outright Winner)

Tennessee Titans +2 over Steelers (Outright Winner)

Giants -3 over Panthers (Winner)

Southern Miss/Troy State: (Loss)

Mavs/Wizards Over (Loss)



Every day is an opportunity for us to cash and it's fun to make a statement on what the title and premise of each of our games is. After all, we only make one such play in both CBB and NBA so there is thought that goes into each and consequently, we call the a play with a particular theme. Such is the case here with our Underdog GOW which comes off the heels of Loyola Maryland Winning Outright at UC-Davis. Look, I love Underdogs and that is where I have made my mark and that includes the Titans over the Steelers Outright this weekend as we are on a 7-1 NFL Run. There is a lot that goes into this game from the fact that East Carolina is a very good team that is ranked in the top 100 that comes off a loss to NC State. Remember, East Carolina should have covered that game but failed to do so as they went ice cold on the road in the last several minutes. Well, they play another NC team today and that is in Wake and in particular, they play them in their house catching 9 points at that. Heck, this is a game that East Carolina can certainly win outright. Why can I make such a bold statement such as that? Well, keep in mind that East Carolina is ranked higher than Richmond. Wake beat Richmond on the road by 7 and Richmond is nowhere near talented as East Carolina is who has defeated the likes of top 70 VCU at home in overtime and lost to top 90 George Mason at home by 6 points. Remember, I faded Wake at Richmond at +8 with the Spiders as a home dog as a top 120 team. Why would I not take East Carolina at home +9 as the better team, as a home dog, coming off a loss to another ACC team just in their previous game? How about the fact that in both of East Carolina's losses they have come by margins of 6 at home to George Mason and 11 on the road to NC State. This is game once again that East Carolina can hang very tough at home as if Wake thought playing at the Richmond Spiders was tough, they will go into a house that is much tougher to play and with far more talent on the floor. Combine that with the fact that East Carolina comes off a tough loss to another ACC Rival in NC State on the road, I look for the Pirates to play very tough here today. East Carolina is 6-0 at home, Wake is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games and East Carolina is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games against winning teams as they get up for the better teams at home and likely cover if not win straight up.


NBA (POD): 4 Unit Play. Take Over 197.5 between Houston Rockets @ New Jersey Nets (Monday @ 7:35pm est). We have several things working in our favor here. For starters, over 69% of the public are riding Houston here after their recent win at Minnesota as they covered the spread winning by 7 and the Nets home loss to the Heat. Keep in mind that the Nets were coming off a big win over the Mavs at home which was a big game for Devin Harris and company based on the recent trades these two teams just had. Of course, Devin Harris showed up and outshined kid by scoring 40+ points and having 13 assists in the process. As per this game, note that NJ comes off that tough loss and look to bounce-back here. The Nets have had no problem scoring points in particular when they have motivation coming off a previous loss. Also, when the Rockets get taken to the edge early and are in a competitive game, games go over. The last four of five have been such the case with the Rockets as for example the game against the Grizzlies in which they were an active dog went over, the game against the Twolves who for all intense purposes were an active dog at home went over, they were at GS where the game sailed over and of course, they were at Denver in an outright loss and that game too sailed over as the Nuggs were great competition that night. In that same spirit, the Nets will be great competitors tonight coming off such a loss. I'm not saying to bet against the Rockets here, but let's bet on the Nets to make this game competitive as the push this total over and I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see an outright win for the Nets, but more importantly, we expect to see an over. Remember, we want 25 points in each quarter per team as that is the magic number to keep pace for the 200 mark. The over is 4-0 for the Rockets when they are favored by this margin on the road and the over is 7-3 for the Nets following an ATS loss
 

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Stephen Nover
TITLE: Game of the Year
REASON FOR PICK: Some non-playoff teams are dead. You don't want to touch them. The Green Bay Packers aren't one of those clubs even though their record is 5-9.

No, the Packers aren't going to the playoffs. That's obviously a huge disappointment for a team that came within an overtime of reaching the Super Bowl last year.

But the Packers will play hard in this Monday night game against their long-time division rival the Chicago Bears. This is Green Bay's Super Bowl game.

The Packers aren't nearly as good as last season. Injuries, lack of veteran leadership and bad breaks have done them in. However, they aren't nearly as bad as their record may indicate.

Green Bay actually has outscored its opponents by 32 points. Opponents have gained just 14 more yards than the Packers and only two more first downs.

Green Bay has been in every game. The Packers beat Indianapolis and should have defeated Tennessee (losing in overtime) and Carolina. Green Bay's record is misleading because it has lost six games by four points or fewer.

The Packers destroyed the Bears, 37-3, when they met five weeks ago. The Bears are just mediocre.

Quarterback Kyle Orton hasn't been the same since injuring his right ankle. His quarterback rating was 90.8 before the injury. It is 63.4 in the five games since coming back. His mobility also has been hampered.

In addition, star rookie running back Matt Forte may be limited because of a toe injury.

The Bears will have trouble throwing on a tough Packers secondary featuring All-Pros Charles Woodson and Nick Collins. The flip side is the Bears won't be able to stop Green Bay's passing attack. They couldn't handle Green Bay's excellent receivers during the first meeting and nothing has changed.

The Packers certainly wouldn't be bothered by bad weather. In fact, bad weather is usually a plus for a 'dog getting more than a field goal. Green Bay loves to play at Solider Field.

The Packers are 12-2 in their last 14 visits to Chicago, including 10-4 against the spread.

This is a 10-star rating, my highest of the season. I'm playing this in mid-week while there are still a few plus 4 1/2's out. At plus 4, the Packers would hold a nine-star rating. The Packers are a great play at any price because I expect them to win straight-up.

I've made a huge play on Green Bay with the points and on the money-line.
 

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Mark the Shark handicapping

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This is from Mark the Shark Miller


NCAAB Marquett at NC State 7:00 PM EST



Play On: NC State +1.5



The Marquette Golden Eagles will have thier first true road game of the year and I always look to play against team in this situation. Marquette will find trouble in the post area in trying to match-up against Brandon Costner and Ben McCauley. Look for a NC State to step out on defense allowing thier big men to control the paint. Early season home underdogs against ranked opponents always make for a good play. Take NC State.





NCAAB Cornell at at St. Joseph's 7:30 PM EST



Play On: Cornell +9



Cornell has played Syracuse and Minnesota with both games on the road. We saw Cornell at their best last week against La Salle when they scored 52 second half points. We also saw the impact we are looking for from Foote, thier 7 foot center. St. Joes last games was December 11th so we expect them to be rusty and challenged the entire way in this one Take Cornell.






NCAAB Depaul vs. St. Louis 8:00 PM EST



Play On: St. Louis +1



The semi finals bring Depaul and St. Louis to see who will go to the Championship game. We are getting some value in this one as Depaul won thier last game going away while St. Louis blew a lead but hung on to win. St. Louis brings 4 returning starters to the table this year and while they have always played great defense thier ofense is going to improve. Depaul is 0 - 3 SU and ATS in the L3 games they played against a team that allows less then 65 points a game, St. Louis allows just 55 points a game. Depaul will find the going rough tonight and with this game being played on a neutral court we give the advantage to St. Louis as Depaul is just 1 - 7 in thier L8 neutral court games with the line in this price range. Take At. Louis.





Play On: Green Bay +4

The Packers have burnt me this year but tonight is payback time. With the loss that Minnesota took yesterday we should have more people backing the Bears tonight and that means 4's and maybe even 4.5's will be around all night till kick-off. I actually think the Vikings loss puts more pressure on the Bears as they face a team that can just go out and play with no pressure on them at all. One of the more over rated plays is playing on a team that is in a "must win" game. Just becuse they are in a must win situation does not mean they are going to win. Green Bay has not had much luck and they enter this one 0 - 6 in games decided by 4 or less points. We also note that in Green Bay L14 games they would cover this number 11 times. Take Green Bay
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BeatYourBookie


Daily Premium Football Winners for Monday Monday NFL Football Winner

100* Play Green Bay (+4.5) over Chicago(8:30 P.M. EST Kick-Off)


Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in road games when the total is between 35.5 and 42 pointsGreen Bay is 9-1 ATS coming off a non-conference game the last 3 seasonsGreen Bay is 12-4 SU & ATS vs. division opponents the last 3 seasons
 

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Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies Dec 22 2008 8:00PM

<table style="width: 694px; height: 746px;" class="data"><tbody><tr><td class="datahl-p">PICK: Memphis Grizzlies</td></tr><tr><td class="datacell">Your pick was graded at: 11.5 SPORTSBETTING</td></tr><tr><td class="datacell">EXPERT: David Malinsky</td></tr><tr><td class="datacell">TITLE: Top of the Ticket</td></tr><tr><td class="datacell">EVALUATION: Play Not Evaluated. </td></tr><tr><td class="datacell">REASON FOR PICK: 4* #706 MEMPHIS over L. A. LAKERS

The Lakers have such a public reputation right now that even an 0-9 ATS slide does not lead to the oddsmakers having to make any adjustments – if anything the deeper the run goes, the more that we see folks chasing them do the windows on those usual “due” theories. But these struggles are not just to get the money as favorites, but rather to win the games at all – the closed their home stand with a near-miss against a tired New York team, and the first two games of this road trip have been outright losses at Washington and Orlando. Now a team accustomed to the warm climate of Southern California is having to travel during a brutal cold stretch on the east coast, which does little to help their preparation for tonight. And with Phil Jackson aware of the energy level that will be needed tomorrow, when they have to face Chris Paul and the Hornets at the end of a four-in-five cycle, the focus tonight will not be on getting a win of anywhere near the high pointspread, but rather to just get the “W” and move on.

Not that the “W” is automatic for a team struggling badly on defense. Let’s let Lamar Odom do our work for us – "It's just like when we used to play against Phoenix two seasons ago. We always felt like, 'Oh, we're going to get back in the game. They are playing an offensive style of basketball.' I think that's how teams right now might be looking at us … Now, I feel like teams feel like we're going to let them back in the game." After holding their first seven opponents under 100 points to open the season, the Lakers have allowed five of the last seven to break the century mark. And in a tough scheduling cycle, this is not the spot we expect to see a renewal of their intensity on that end of the floor.

Contrast this with the energy that we can expect from the Grizzlies. The last time they took the court was an absolute disaster, that 112-83 drubbing on this court Friday night vs. Charlotte that had Marc Iavaorni benching the starters for much of the second half. It was a total non-effort, but with the entire weekend off to build frustrations off of that defeat, this is the ideal spot to play this class of team to bounce back with some fire. They are not good enough to beat the Lakers, but they are athletic enough to attack aggressively, and be in the hunt until the closing stages.


</td></tr></tbody></table>http://experts.covers.com/idinfo/BilledPlayDetails.aspx?plid=86524

That's why I like Dave Malinsky and think he's one of the better cappers in the biz. He explains things very thoroughly. One certainly can't deny the Lakers are an ATS play against team right now. The question is can a team like Memphis actually hang with them in this price range?
 

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<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#dddddd"><td valign="top">Computer Crushers</td> <td align="right" valign="top">Guaranteed Selections</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr> <td valign="top">Date: Monday, December 22, 2008
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776 CS Fullerton -8.5 10:00 EST
</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"> </td></tr></tbody></table>
 

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<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#dddddd"><td valign="top">Andrew Powers</td> <td align="right" valign="top">Guaranteed Selections</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr> <td valign="top">Date: Monday, December 22, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: We are now 290-148 for 68% since joining thsi web site. We prove it to you every day that we are the most POWERFUL HANDICAPPERS IN THE NATION! Today we are releasing one of our STRONGEST COLLEGE BASKETBALL SELECTIONS SO FAR THIS YEAR! You can get our COLLEGE HOOPS POWER PLAY WINNER tonight for just $25 and you will pay for this selection ONLY after you WIN!
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752 LONG BEACH ST +6 9:00 EST
</td></tr></tbody></table>
 

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Sean Michaels

25 Dime

Chicago Bears (if for some reason you have it at -4.5, buy it down to -4)
 

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SportsBoss

NFL 21-9 last 6 weeks

4* Green Bay

NBA 18-4 last 22

4* Denver


He said he will have a few NBA trend plays in an hour. I will post.
 

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