Dr. Bob
*Youngstown State (+25) over NOTRE DAME
04:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 723
Youngstown State just lost 46-105 at Michigan but that ugly result sets up the Penguins in a 70-24-7 ATS big road underdog bounce-back situation. The fact that Notre Dame is coming off a loss to Indiana isn’t an issue, as the situation that applies to Youngstown applies only against big home favorites coming off a loss and the Irish are just 22-54-4 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more after a loss in 15 years under coach Mike Brey, including 0-10-1 ATS the last few years. My ratings favor Notre Dame by 24 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Youngstown State in a 1-Star Best Bet at +24 points or more.
*UNDER (159 ½) – NORTH CAROLINA (-31 ½) vs Appalachian State
04:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 722
There is value on the under in this game, as my mat model projects just 152 total points. North Carolina’s games have averaged 157.4 total points against teams that would average 144.6 total points per game, so the Tarheels’ games have been 12.8 points higher scoring than what an average team would total against the same schedule. Appalachian State, meanwhile, has averaged a total of 145.0 points against teams that would combine to average 144.3 total points, so the Mountaineers’ games have been 0.7 points higher scoring than average. North Carolina’s +12.8 total points and Appalachian’s +0.7 total points would predict a game that is 13.5 points higher scoring than average. The average game has averaged 144.7 points this season, so that would yield a prediction of 158.2 total points. The line doesn’t seem that far off based on that but I expect both teams to be lower scoring going forward. Appalachian State is not going to continue to make 39.1% of their 3-point shots and they’re certainly not going to continue to have opponents make 44.0% from long range. Last season, with the same core players and same coach the Mountaineers shot just 31.6% and allowed 32.3% from 3-point range. Frank Eaves and Chris Burgess, who combined for 36.6% 3-point shooting last season are a combined 55 for 120 (45.8%) from beyond the arc this season, which is a percentage that will not be maintained going forward. North Carolina, meanwhile, has allowed 38.0% 3-point shooting so far this season (to teams that combine to make 35.1% for the season) and it’s highly unlikely that the Tarheels’ perimeter defense will continue to be that bad. Last season the Tarheels allowed just 30.0% 3-pointers (14th in the nation) and the higher percentage of 3-pointers allowed by UNC in any season under coach Roy Williams was 35.2% way back in 2004, his first season as head coach. North Carolina’s offensive 3-point percentage should continue to climb with Macus Paige as the main shooting threat now (he missed the first 6 games) but Paige is not going to continue to make 50% from long range as he has in his 5 games. While 158.2 points is predicted using this seasons stats, both of these teams are likely to have lower scoring games going forward due to 3-point shooting defense (and offense for App St) regressing to the mean. My math projects 152 ½ total points and I’ll go Under 158 points or higher in a 1-Star Best Bet. I’ll also lean with Appalachian State at +31 or more based on a 74-26-4 ATS big dog situation.
***Charlotte (+3) over HOUSTON
05:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 711
This game is a convergence of Charlotte being underrated, Houston still being overrated and the Rockets applying to a 23-71 ATS letdown situation based on their upset win over the Clippers. Houston is certainly better since November 27th, the night when Patrick Beverley joined the starting lineup after missing most of the early season. However, the Rockets 9-4 record with Beverley in the starting lineup has come against a schedule that is 2.7 points easier than average and Houston’s average scoring margin in those games is +4.5 points. So, Houston has only been just 1.8 points better than average in those games despite making 40% of their 3-point shots, which is not likely to continue for a team that has made just 34.1% this season and only 34.8% last season. The 5 players on the Rockets that shoot the most 3-pointers are James Harden, Trevor Ariza, Marcus Thornton, Patrick Beverley, and Corey Brewer. The career 3-point shooting percentages of those players are 36.6% (Harden), 34.7% (Ariza), 35.3% (Thornton), 36.3% (Beverley), and 29.4% (Brewer) and using career 3-point shooting percentage of all players on the team (multiplied by the number of 3 point shots each player has taken) would result in the Rockets being a 35.1% 3-point shooting team - and 36.0% using the 3-point attempts per player since November 27th. It’s highly unlikely that collection of players would continue to make 3-pointers at the rate they have in their last 13 games, which makes it unlikely that Houston will continue to be 1.8 points better than average.
Houston’s +1.8 average game rating in their last 13 games would be -0.8 if their 3-point shooting was what the career percentages would predict, which is still considerably higher than their 34.1% this season and 34.8% last season. Charlotte’s average game rating this season is +3.8 points, as the Hornets have outscored their opponents by an average of 3.7 points while facing a schedule that is 0.1 points tougher than average. Charlotte is 4.5 points better than Houston and I’d make this game a pick even if use Houston’s +1.8 unadjusted rating from their last 13 games, which assumes the Rockets would continue to make 40% of their 3-point shots (highly unlikely). The line is this game cannot be justified no matter how you do the math and Houston applies to that 23-71 ATS letdown situation. I’ll take Charlotte in a 3-Star Best Bet at +2 points or more and for 2-Star down to +1.
**ST MARY’S (-17) over San Francisco
08:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 740
St. Mary’s had to replace their entire starting 5 but they did so with 5 better players than the 5 that led the Gaels to their worst rating since 2007. Randy Bennett has always done a good job of replacing players and replacing last year’s group was certainly not a challenge. In fact, this year’s team may be Bennett’s best ever. Bennett has put together a collection of deadly outside shooters to go along with efficient post players Peneau and Landale, who are 6-9 and 6-11 and have combined for 18.7 points per game on 60% shooting. If opponents decide to double-team those two in the post then the Gaels counter with a stable of incredible shooters that have knocked down 47.7% of their 3-point shots. It is highly unlikely that St. Mary’s will continue to make 48% of their 3-pointers as a team but they’re a very good team even if they settle in around 40% 3-point shooting, as the Gaels still have a good post game and play great defense (39.8% FG allowed).
St. Mary’s has proven themselves against a handful of solid teams this season, beating Stanford, UC Irvine, and Cal Poly by an average of 19 points and losing by just 4 points on the road at Cal against a talented group of Golden Bears. San Francisco is not a solid team, as they’ve suffered a significant decline in front court talent with the departures of last year’s leading scorers Tollefen and Pinkins, who both averaged 14 points on a combined 51.2% shooting. This year’s Dons are solid in the backcourt but have no post offense and their defense has allowed opponents to knock down 37.1% of their 3-point shots despite those opponents combining to make just 32.0% for the season. Not being able to defend the 3-point line is not a good omen for the Dons in this game and my ratings would favor St. Mary’s by 28 points using the year’s games only without adjusting for variance. However, as indicated above, it’s unlikely that St. Mary’s will continue to make 48% of their 3-point shots and the variance adjusted prediction comes out to the Gaels by 23 ½ points. San Francisco tends to play a few points better in conference play than in their pre-conference games under coach Rex Walters, which gets us to a fair line of St. Mary’s by 21 points. The line opened at 18 ½ points and has come down and there is no math that would justify the current line. St. Mary’s is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season and I don’t see that streak ending just yet. I’ll take St. Mary’s in a 2-Star Best Bet at -18 points or less and for 1-Star up to -19.
