New Orleans @ CHICAGO
New Orleans -3 -109 over CHICAGO
We are not customarily in favor of spotting road points, especially in prime time games but this one has a different feel to it. Those small road-chalk teams of the past usually have a distinct advantage (like Pitt at Tenn or Miami at the Jets recently) but in this case the Saints are a team that people are not anxious to back. After all, the Saints have lost four of five and were blown out at home by both Cincinnati and Carolina. As a 10-point favorite last week at the Superdome, the Saints lost to the Panthers, 41-10. Coach Sean Peyton was livid after that loss and being on the road this week is probably the best thing for New Orleans. The Saints have played just two road games over the past seven weeks and they are 2-0 in those games with a 28-10 win over Carolina and a 35-32 victory in Pittsburgh. The Saints can still score points with Drew Brees at the controls, as they've faced a sneaky schedule of capable defenses since their bye in Week 6.
The Bears' defense is hardly capable at this point, as injuries and attrition have cost them dearly for the second year in a row. The Bears were able to keep the Buccaneers and Vikings in check, but those two teams are well below average at the quarterback position. However, against better offensive competition in four of their past six games -- against the Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots -- they've allowed a whopping 45 points per game. It also doesn’t help that Chicago has buyer’s remorse in terms of Jay Cutler’s long term deal. Cutler has always been turnover-prone and this season he is personally responsible for 21 turnovers. Meanwhile, Brees (who has not been the problem in New Orleans) remains a top-five quarterback this season and should feast against a Bears defense that has allowed a league-worst 30 points per game. During the past three seasons, Chicago is 3-12 against the spread versus teams that average 7 or more yards per pass attempt. That applies here to the Saints. Lastly, the Bears are not focused. They have been lifeless and inefficient in every possible way and it may have something to do with Marc Trestman abandoning the run in favor of the pass. When Trestman falls behind, he reverts back to his CFL roots and throws every down. Jay Cutler does not have the mental makeup or fire in his belly like the other greats in this league and that’s why he`ll never thrive for extended periods. The Saints can win this division and make the playoffs and they are at their absolute best in prime time. A response from last week’s debacle is forthcoming.
Our Pick
New Orleans -3 -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)