JACK CLAYTON (NFL)
5-Star Monday Night Madness ATS Massacre!
12/15 05:30 PM NFL (333) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS (334) CHICAGO BEARS
Reason: Play the (333) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS.
Both teams have weaknesses but only one team has strengths and that the Saints offense, top 10 in the NFL in rushing and passing. They are also a motivated team, tied for first place as they head to the final stretch. Coach Sean Payton is on the war-path, critical of the defense after the loss to Carolina last week. “Our tackling was awful. (The Panthers) were almost near 300 yards rushing. It was awful,” he said. “On top of that, you can’t make dumb mistakes like jump offside when a team is getting ready to punt or kick a field goal.” New Orleans (421) is one of four teams averaging more than 400 total yards per game. The Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Monday games. Saints QB Drew Brees has thrown 32 touchdown passes and just six interceptions while winning nine of his last 11 starts on Monday Night Football. Chicago has defensive injuries that have killed them, a terrible unit, while the offense is turnover prone with no confidence. The Bears are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 vs. NFC and 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. Play the (333) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS.
5-Star Monday Night Madness ATS Massacre!
12/15 05:30 PM NFL (333) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS (334) CHICAGO BEARS
Reason: Play the (333) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS.
Both teams have weaknesses but only one team has strengths and that the Saints offense, top 10 in the NFL in rushing and passing. They are also a motivated team, tied for first place as they head to the final stretch. Coach Sean Payton is on the war-path, critical of the defense after the loss to Carolina last week. “Our tackling was awful. (The Panthers) were almost near 300 yards rushing. It was awful,” he said. “On top of that, you can’t make dumb mistakes like jump offside when a team is getting ready to punt or kick a field goal.” New Orleans (421) is one of four teams averaging more than 400 total yards per game. The Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Monday games. Saints QB Drew Brees has thrown 32 touchdown passes and just six interceptions while winning nine of his last 11 starts on Monday Night Football. Chicago has defensive injuries that have killed them, a terrible unit, while the offense is turnover prone with no confidence. The Bears are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 vs. NFC and 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. Play the (333) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS.
New Orleans @ CHICAGO
New Orleans -3 -109 over CHICAGO
We are not customarily in favor of spotting road points, especially in prime time games but this one has a different feel to it. Those small road-chalk teams of the past usually have a distinct advantage (like Pitt at Tenn or Miami at the Jets recently) but in this case the Saints are a team that people are not anxious to back. After all, the Saints have lost four of five and were blown out at home by both Cincinnati and Carolina. As a 10-point favorite last week at the Superdome, the Saints lost to the Panthers, 41-10. Coach Sean Peyton was livid after that loss and being on the road this week is probably the best thing for New Orleans. The Saints have played just two road games over the past seven weeks and they are 2-0 in those games with a 28-10 win over Carolina and a 35-32 victory in Pittsburgh. The Saints can still score points with Drew Brees at the controls, as they've faced a sneaky schedule of capable defenses since their bye in Week 6.
The Bears' defense is hardly capable at this point, as injuries and attrition have cost them dearly for the second year in a row. The Bears were able to keep the Buccaneers and Vikings in check, but those two teams are well below average at the quarterback position. However, against better offensive competition in four of their past six games -- against the Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots -- they've allowed a whopping 45 points per game. It also doesn’t help that Chicago has buyer’s remorse in terms of Jay Cutler’s long term deal. Cutler has always been turnover-prone and this season he is personally responsible for 21 turnovers. Meanwhile, Brees (who has not been the problem in New Orleans) remains a top-five quarterback this season and should feast against a Bears defense that has allowed a league-worst 30 points per game. During the past three seasons, Chicago is 3-12 against the spread versus teams that average 7 or more yards per pass attempt. That applies here to the Saints. Lastly, the Bears are not focused. They have been lifeless and inefficient in every possible way and it may have something to do with Marc Trestman abandoning the run in favor of the pass. When Trestman falls behind, he reverts back to his CFL roots and throws every down. Jay Cutler does not have the mental makeup or fire in his belly like the other greats in this league and that’s why he`ll never thrive for extended periods. The Saints can win this division and make the playoffs and they are at their absolute best in prime time. A response from last week’s debacle is forthcoming.
Our Pick
New Orleans -3 -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)
New Orleans -3 -109 over CHICAGO
We are not customarily in favor of spotting road points, especially in prime time games but this one has a different feel to it. Those small road-chalk teams of the past usually have a distinct advantage (like Pitt at Tenn or Miami at the Jets recently) but in this case the Saints are a team that people are not anxious to back. After all, the Saints have lost four of five and were blown out at home by both Cincinnati and Carolina. As a 10-point favorite last week at the Superdome, the Saints lost to the Panthers, 41-10. Coach Sean Peyton was livid after that loss and being on the road this week is probably the best thing for New Orleans. The Saints have played just two road games over the past seven weeks and they are 2-0 in those games with a 28-10 win over Carolina and a 35-32 victory in Pittsburgh. The Saints can still score points with Drew Brees at the controls, as they've faced a sneaky schedule of capable defenses since their bye in Week 6.
The Bears' defense is hardly capable at this point, as injuries and attrition have cost them dearly for the second year in a row. The Bears were able to keep the Buccaneers and Vikings in check, but those two teams are well below average at the quarterback position. However, against better offensive competition in four of their past six games -- against the Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots -- they've allowed a whopping 45 points per game. It also doesn’t help that Chicago has buyer’s remorse in terms of Jay Cutler’s long term deal. Cutler has always been turnover-prone and this season he is personally responsible for 21 turnovers. Meanwhile, Brees (who has not been the problem in New Orleans) remains a top-five quarterback this season and should feast against a Bears defense that has allowed a league-worst 30 points per game. During the past three seasons, Chicago is 3-12 against the spread versus teams that average 7 or more yards per pass attempt. That applies here to the Saints. Lastly, the Bears are not focused. They have been lifeless and inefficient in every possible way and it may have something to do with Marc Trestman abandoning the run in favor of the pass. When Trestman falls behind, he reverts back to his CFL roots and throws every down. Jay Cutler does not have the mental makeup or fire in his belly like the other greats in this league and that’s why he`ll never thrive for extended periods. The Saints can win this division and make the playoffs and they are at their absolute best in prime time. A response from last week’s debacle is forthcoming.
Our Pick
New Orleans -3 -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)
Top Shelf Picks - Nite Owl Sports
Game – NO Saints at Chicago Bear “Cubs,” starts 5:30 Pacific
Weather conditions - cloudy with light rain and winds of 10-15 MPH, game time temps in mid 40s
Relevant lines - NO-3/-120 to -135 odds, game total 53-54
Picks
NO -3 for 2.5 units at -120 odds, 2 units at -125, or one unit at -130 or 135, pass at > 3
Possible partial game pick(s) on NO for 2Q and/or FH - will send in separate update if I decide to play
Mega 7 point side/total teaser
Tease NO to +3.5> with Over, teased down to 47<, for 5 units if teasing 7 points gets you NO at +4 and Over at 46.5<, for 3.5 units if teasing 7 points gets you NO at +4 and Over at 47, or NO at +3.5 and Over at 46.5<, or 3 units if teasing 7 points gets you NO at +3.5 and Over at 47
Note re getting your plays in early – with NO still -3 at most books, but the odds for same moving upward, now at -125 or -130 at most books, and even a few books having the spread at 3.5, we suggest playing both NO and the teaser ASAP, to get NO at -3 and +4 on the teaser, hopefully with a total of 46.5 or 46 for Over on the teaser.
Support for our betting attack strategy on tonite’s game
Despite owning identical ugly 5-8 W-L records, one team (New Orleans) is tied for the division lead while the other (Chicago) resides in the basement of their division and is just playing pout the string, with major personnel changes likely to be made in both players and coaches in the off-season. The New Orleans Saints look to maintain at least a share of the top spot in the NFC South when they visit the NFC North cellar-dwelling Chicago Bears tonight. New Orleans enters Week 15 tied with Atlanta atop their division even though last Sunday's 41-10 loss to Carolina was its fourth defeat in five games, with all four losses coming at home. Historically bad on the road, the Saints have won their last two games away from the Superdome, including an impressive recent 35-32 triumph at Pittsburgh in Week 13. Chicago, which has rushed for a total of 48 yards in its last two games, has dropped four of its last six contests, allowing at least 34 points in each setback, and the latest defeat, a 41-28 prime time home loss to Dallas last Thursday nite, not only halted the Bears' two-game home winning streak, but made them not only an ugly 2-4 at home TY, but also 0-2 TY as home dogs (their role tonite), with an average losing margin of 17 points. And Bears' QB Jay Cutler has fumbled a league high-tying six times and thrown the second-most interceptions (15), all of which is good for NO and potentially good for the Over, as well.
Both sides are too erratic to get too excited about backing, but NO at least has something to play for, still being in contention in the pathetic NFC South. Saints QB Drew Brees has thrown 32 touchdown passes and just six interceptions while winning nine of his last 11 starts on Monday Night Football, and New Orleans (with 421 TYs) is one of four teams averaging more than 400 total yards per game.
And while there is clearly reason to play the Over (as indicated below), and the weather conditions (see above) don’t look too bad for playing the Over, I don’t have enough confidence in Chicago’s offense (which has averaged just 20 ppg at home TY, resulting in a 2-4 home Under log and is w/o WR Marshall, out with cracked ribs suffered in LW’s loss to Dallas) scoring enough to carry their share of the load.
Chicago is currently 28th in total defense and an NFL worst in points allowed (29.1 pg), while New Orleans 31st in total defense (399 TY allowed) and 30th in points allowed (27.6 ppg), and the club has yielded at least 27 points and an average of 183.8 rushing yards in its last five contests. After allowing 50-plus points in back-to-back losses at New England and Green Bay, the Bears appeared to right the ship, yielding 13 in home victories over Minnesota and Tampa Bay. But Chicago's defense went back to being porous as it yielded a total of 75 points in setbacks against Detroit and Dallas. Injuries to regulars have been a factor, forcing several rookies into extended action.
Game – NO Saints at Chicago Bear “Cubs,” starts 5:30 Pacific
Weather conditions - cloudy with light rain and winds of 10-15 MPH, game time temps in mid 40s
Relevant lines - NO-3/-120 to -135 odds, game total 53-54
Picks
NO -3 for 2.5 units at -120 odds, 2 units at -125, or one unit at -130 or 135, pass at > 3
Possible partial game pick(s) on NO for 2Q and/or FH - will send in separate update if I decide to play
Mega 7 point side/total teaser
Tease NO to +3.5> with Over, teased down to 47<, for 5 units if teasing 7 points gets you NO at +4 and Over at 46.5<, for 3.5 units if teasing 7 points gets you NO at +4 and Over at 47, or NO at +3.5 and Over at 46.5<, or 3 units if teasing 7 points gets you NO at +3.5 and Over at 47
Note re getting your plays in early – with NO still -3 at most books, but the odds for same moving upward, now at -125 or -130 at most books, and even a few books having the spread at 3.5, we suggest playing both NO and the teaser ASAP, to get NO at -3 and +4 on the teaser, hopefully with a total of 46.5 or 46 for Over on the teaser.
Support for our betting attack strategy on tonite’s game
Despite owning identical ugly 5-8 W-L records, one team (New Orleans) is tied for the division lead while the other (Chicago) resides in the basement of their division and is just playing pout the string, with major personnel changes likely to be made in both players and coaches in the off-season. The New Orleans Saints look to maintain at least a share of the top spot in the NFC South when they visit the NFC North cellar-dwelling Chicago Bears tonight. New Orleans enters Week 15 tied with Atlanta atop their division even though last Sunday's 41-10 loss to Carolina was its fourth defeat in five games, with all four losses coming at home. Historically bad on the road, the Saints have won their last two games away from the Superdome, including an impressive recent 35-32 triumph at Pittsburgh in Week 13. Chicago, which has rushed for a total of 48 yards in its last two games, has dropped four of its last six contests, allowing at least 34 points in each setback, and the latest defeat, a 41-28 prime time home loss to Dallas last Thursday nite, not only halted the Bears' two-game home winning streak, but made them not only an ugly 2-4 at home TY, but also 0-2 TY as home dogs (their role tonite), with an average losing margin of 17 points. And Bears' QB Jay Cutler has fumbled a league high-tying six times and thrown the second-most interceptions (15), all of which is good for NO and potentially good for the Over, as well.
Both sides are too erratic to get too excited about backing, but NO at least has something to play for, still being in contention in the pathetic NFC South. Saints QB Drew Brees has thrown 32 touchdown passes and just six interceptions while winning nine of his last 11 starts on Monday Night Football, and New Orleans (with 421 TYs) is one of four teams averaging more than 400 total yards per game.
And while there is clearly reason to play the Over (as indicated below), and the weather conditions (see above) don’t look too bad for playing the Over, I don’t have enough confidence in Chicago’s offense (which has averaged just 20 ppg at home TY, resulting in a 2-4 home Under log and is w/o WR Marshall, out with cracked ribs suffered in LW’s loss to Dallas) scoring enough to carry their share of the load.
Chicago is currently 28th in total defense and an NFL worst in points allowed (29.1 pg), while New Orleans 31st in total defense (399 TY allowed) and 30th in points allowed (27.6 ppg), and the club has yielded at least 27 points and an average of 183.8 rushing yards in its last five contests. After allowing 50-plus points in back-to-back losses at New England and Green Bay, the Bears appeared to right the ship, yielding 13 in home victories over Minnesota and Tampa Bay. But Chicago's defense went back to being porous as it yielded a total of 75 points in setbacks against Detroit and Dallas. Injuries to regulars have been a factor, forcing several rookies into extended action.
