vegas-runner | NFL Total Triple-Dime Bet
332 PHI / 331 CLE Over 39.0 SportBet
Analysis:
*** NFL MNF 3* "PRIME-TIME" TOTAL of the WEEK ***
The weather report says that there is a 70% chance of rain, but the temperature isn't low enough for it to turn to snow...And although when reports of rain become official, the Total usually drops, I wanted us to get down before it gets to 40 or even higher and surpasses some KEY totals...
Obviously I would have liked to have passed this along when it was 38...but I still see a lot of Value on the OVER, especially based on the fact that the Browns haven't scored a TD in 3 weeks...
I made my "Fair Number" 41 and my "True Number" 43...and really feel that as long as the winds don't pick up, and the weather report right now shows that they won't...then we should see more offense than many expect...
We all expect the Eagles to be able to score on the Browns, especially after seeing how they rank in all the defensive catagories...But for an OVER to come in without having to sweat it, you need both teams to score...
And tonight, the Browns definately have a lot of incentive and motivation to be able to get some points up on the board...That means we should see a lot more of a wide open offensive attack from them, which should include a lot of "Wildcat" Formations, which may keep the Eagles D a bit off-balance at times, and just enough for the Browns to get some Points on the Board...
Bottom Line here is that besides the stats, trends, and factors that we capp to try and reach a conclusion...Tonight's Total was opened much lower than it should have, and that became evident as the books were forced to adjust and raise it throughout the week, as the sharps continued to take a position on the OVER...
They will now look to entice bettors into coming in on the Under, and should be able to when reports of the weather begin to surface...And like I said above, although I would love to wait and see if they do adjust and drop this down...giving us an even better number...I just don't want to take the risk of more "Sharp" Money pushing it even higher...
We feel that anything 40 of better still justifies a 3* Wager...So let's go ahead and make Tonight's Bet...OVER 39 our NFL MNF 3* TOTAL of the WEEK...VR