Cajun Sports
NFL Monday "Matters" Perfect Angle Winner 16-0-1 ATS
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers
Selection: 3* Green Bay Packers -3
The Baltimore Ravens make the trip to Lambeau Field for a Monday night affair against the host Green Bay Packers. Both teams are still in the hunt for a wildcard berth but need a win here to keep those hopes alive.
Baltimore is coming off an OT win versus the Pittsburgh Steelers 20 to 17 but failing to cover as a 7.5 point home favorite. They rushed for 132 yards while giving up over 150 yards rushing. Through the air they put up 261 yards on 11.3 yards per pass while their defense allowed 145 passing yards but 12.1 yards per pass. We know that teams having played the Steelers in their previous game and it came during Weeks 9 through 12 are only 1-14 ATS since 2006 in their next game. And this season teams are just 3-6 straight up and 2-7 against the spread after playing the Steelers with five of the losses coming by double digits.
The Ravens have really struggled on offense over the last month failing to put up more than twenty-points in any of their last four games. This has been a very tough stretch for the Ravens and their defense is unable to carry them as they have in years past. Baltimore is 0-8-1 ATS when they failed to score the expected number of points (dps) over their last three games.
The Packers have now won three straight and control an NFC Wild Card spot with a 7-4 SU record. Green Bay completed the season sweep over the Detroit Lions by defeating them on Thanksgiving Day 34 to 12 as an 11 point road favorite. They had defeated the Lions back on October 18th at Lambeau 26 to 0 as a 14 point home favorite and this is important because the Packers are a perfect 8-0 ATS after sweeping a team on the road in their last game.
Green Bay has done a much better job of protecting QB Rodgers the last couple weeks allowing just three sacks after giving up an unbelievable forty-one in their first nine games of the season. Even though Rodgers has been harassed for most of the season they still rank sixth in the league in total offense. The Packers “D” has been the story this season for them as they hold the top spot allowing just 282 yards per game. Not only has the defense put the clamps on the opposing offense they have caused turnovers ranking second in the league in that category.
A check of our situational database reveals two league-wide systems that are active in tonight’s contest. Play AGAINST teams (Baltimore) with a SU win percentage >.500 after Week 5 and a season TO Differential >0 facing an opponent that has a higher TPR and this team’s Season Rush Offense Rating is more than their last three. These Play AGAINST teams have posted a record of 99-235 ATS since 1994, 15-44 ATS the last three seasons and 1-4 ATS this year. Play AGAINST teams (Baltimore) with an Average Spread Margin >+6 last season facing an opponent with a higher season points against average as long as this game is not a divisional sandwich. These Play AGAINST teams are 25-77 ATS since 1994 and 6-17 ATS over the last three years.
Database research has uncovered a league-wide system that is active for this game and it tells us In Weeks 3-16 on, play ON a non-Thursday favorite off a Thursday road non-OT SU win (not as an underdog of more than 9 points) in its last game vs. an opponent not off a favorite SU&ATS win in its last game. 11-1 ATS since 1992
With significant situational and technical support we will back the host here as the Packers continue their solid play and move closer to grabbing a postseason spot. Lay the short price with the Packers at Lambeau on Monday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 3* Green Bay Packers 30 Baltimore Ravens 21
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