HRC PREMIUM NFL ACTION-November 8th
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Premium (Rated)
15* Diamond (Rated)
******************
[430] Cincinnati |10*|Bet C|+6.5|B+0|ESPN|8:35 pm EST
note*
This is the "NFL SPREAD SYSTEM" buy 1/2 on only even spreads (4 game chase)
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Premium (Rated)
15* Diamond (Rated)
******************
[430] Cincinnati |10*|Bet C|+6.5|B+0|ESPN|8:35 pm EST
note*
This is the "NFL SPREAD SYSTEM" buy 1/2 on only even spreads (4 game chase)
HRC PREMIUM NHL ACTION-November 8th
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[52] Detroit |5*|Bet A|-175|B+0|Network N/A|7:35 pm EST
note*
This is the "NHL Spread System" (3 game chase)
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[52] Detroit |5*|Bet A|-175|B+0|Network N/A|7:35 pm EST
note*
This is the "NHL Spread System" (3 game chase)
Monday GC NBA Play
On Monday the NBA Bonus Play is on the Spurs. Game 701 at 7:05 eastern. The Spurs have controlled the series against Charlotte over the past few years and have won 5 of 5 here in Charlotte. Even better is the Spurs 5-0 straight up and ats record the last 3 years when facing opponents who average less than 91 points per game. Charlotte has struggled early on this year while the Spurs have started out rather quickly and are coming off a nice home overtime win vs Houston. Look for the Spurs to take another vs the Bobcats. On Monday I have a Big 100% Monday night football system that has 2 Power angles that are rare and equal 18-1. Football combined is up over 20 games over .500 this year. For the free NBA play take the Spurs. GC
On Monday the NBA Bonus Play is on the Spurs. Game 701 at 7:05 eastern. The Spurs have controlled the series against Charlotte over the past few years and have won 5 of 5 here in Charlotte. Even better is the Spurs 5-0 straight up and ats record the last 3 years when facing opponents who average less than 91 points per game. Charlotte has struggled early on this year while the Spurs have started out rather quickly and are coming off a nice home overtime win vs Houston. Look for the Spurs to take another vs the Bobcats. On Monday I have a Big 100% Monday night football system that has 2 Power angles that are rare and equal 18-1. Football combined is up over 20 games over .500 this year. For the free NBA play take the Spurs. GC
Statsystems report 11/8
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/8
NBA & MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
________________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NBA & NFL*****
*** TERREL OWENS PUTS REVIVED CAREER ON MNF ***
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The 2009 Pittsburgh Steelers weren't able to sustain success after winning an AFC North title the previous season. It's a trend the 2010 Cincinnati Bengals are on pace to continue. The defending division champion Bengals hope to put an end to a painfully-long winless drought when the slumping club hosts the playoff-hopeful Steelers in a Week 9 Monday night showdown between AFC North rivals.
Cincinnati orchestrated one of the NFL's best turnarounds last season, bouncing back from a dreadful 4-11-1 campaign in 2008 to win 10 games and edge both Pittsburgh and Baltimore for the division crown. This year's edition started off with wins in two of its first three tests, but has since lost four consecutive times to fall three games behind both the Steelers and the Ravens in the current AFC North standings. The Bengals have still been competitive during their lengthy skid, as all four of the defeats have been by eight points or less and the team had a second- half lead in three of those games.
Cincinnati held an eight-point advantage late in the second quarter of last Sunday's clash with Miami, but its offense went cold after halftime and the Dolphins put up 16 unanswered points to come away with a 22-14 victory. The Bengals mustered a mere 78 total yards and five first downs over the final 30 minutes, with up-and-down quarterback Carson Palmer completing just 8-of-22 passes for 52 yards during that span.
While the talented Bengals have been viewed as underachievers, Pittsburgh exceeded most insiders' expectations by compiling a 3-1 record while starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger began the season serving a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy. The Steelers tacked on two more wins once Roethlisberger returned, but couldn't maintain the momentum in a 20-10 road setback to reigning Super Bowl champ New Orleans in Week 8.
Pittsburgh had its lowest offensive output this season with Roethlisberger under center, gaining a modest 279 total yards and 13 first downs against the Saints, while a usually air-tight defense was shredded for 305 passing yards by New Orleans triggerman Drew Brees and gave up a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns. The loss, the Steelers' first in four away dates so far in 2010, placed Pittsburgh in a tie with Baltimore for the top spot in the AFC North with a 5-2 record.
Cincinnati fell to 1-2 at home with last week's verdict and has now dropped nine of its past 12 overall games, which includes a loss to the visiting New York Jets in the AFC Wild Card Playoffs this past January, dating back to last season. The Bengals also often haven't fared well when facing Pittsburgh in recent years, and especially so on their home turf. The Steelers had prevailed in eight straight trips to Paul Brown Stadium, including a win in the 2005 AFC Playoffs, before Cincinnati came through with a 23-20 decision during September of last season.
• SERIES HISTORY
----------------------
The Steelers lead the all-time regular season series with the Bengals, 47-32, but were swept in last year's home-and-home with their longtime division rival. As previously noted, Cincinnati was a 23-20 home winner when the teams met in Week 3, and completed its first sweep of Pittsburgh since 1998 with an 18-12 win at Heinz Field in Week 10. The Steelers had a five-game winning streak in the series entering 2009, including home-and-home sweeps in 2007 and 2008.
With a win on Monday, the Bengals will have their first three-game winning streak over the Steelers since taking six in a row from 1988-90. That period also ranks as the last time Pittsburgh lost in Cincinnati in back-to-back seasons. In addition to their regular-season advantage, the Steelers also scored a 31-17 road win over the Bengals in the 2005 playoffs.
Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis is 5-10 all-time against the Steelers, for whom he served as a linebackers coach from 2002 through 2005, while Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin is 4-2 against both Lewis and Cincinnati as a head coach.
• WHEN THE STEELERS HAVE THE BALL
------------------------------------------------
Though it wasn't evident last week, the Pittsburgh offense has become a more balanced and dangerous outfit with Roethlisberger (754 passing yards, 5 TD, 2 INT) at the controls. The Steelers have averaged 239.3 passing yards in the three games the two-time Super Bowl champion signal-caller has started, an upgrade of more than 100 yards from the ones managed by substitutes Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch, and go-to receiver Hines Ward (27 receptions, 3 TD) has seen a noticeable spike in his numbers during Big Ben's tenure.
One player who hasn't benefited from the switch is running back Rashard Mendenhall (603 rushing yards, 6 TD, 11 receptions), who hasn't eclipsed 84 rushing yards in any of Roethlisberger's starts after totaling 411 yards over the first four weeks as the offense's centerpiece. The third-year pro did rip off a 38-yard run for Pittsburgh's lone touchdown against the Saints, but was held to just 33 yards on his other 14 attempts. New Orleans also did a good job of taking away the big-play ability of wide receiver Mike Wallace (17 receptions, 4 TD), the NFL's leader in yards per catch (23.4 avg.) this season, and getting Roethlisberger out of rhythm by applying persistent pressure. The Pittsburgh field general has been sacked six times over the past two weeks and was taken down a league-high 50 times a year ago.
Roethlisberger may not have to worry about having inadequate time to throw on Monday, considering the Bengals have been horrendous at getting to the quarterback all season long. Cincinnati has produced a paltry six sacks through the first seven games, and two have come on blitzes by free safety Chris Crocker (40 tackles, 2 sacks). That dearth of a pass rush, not to mention a high ankle sprain suffered by standout cornerback Johnathan Joseph (15 tackles, 1 INT), has had a profound effect on a defense that comes in ranked 20th in passing yards allowed (221.3 ypg).
Joseph is expected to return from his two-game absence this week, however, and will again team with counterpart Leon Hall (23 tackles, 4 INT, 7 PD) to provide the strength of a unit that hasn't come close to matching the level of play it did during last year's playoff run. The Bengals have particularly struggled against the run, having surrendered an average of 132.8 rushing yards per game over their present losing streak. Starting strong safety Roy Williams (17 tackles) hasn't been present for three of those defeats due to a sprained knee, but the brittle ex-Cowboy should be ready to go on Monday and assist in that area.
• WHEN THE BENGALS HAVE THE BALL
------------------------------------------------
No team has been able to effectively run the ball on the Steelers this year, so the onus will be on Palmer (1855 passing yards, 12 TD, 7 INT) to get the Bengals moving down the field with his erratic right arm. It's hard to gauge what to expect from the former Heisman Trophy winner, as he followed up a three-interception showing in a Week 5 loss to Tampa Bay with a brilliant 412- yard, three-touchdown display against Atlanta, then hit on an awful 17-of-38 throws for 156 and was picked off twice by the Dolphins last week.
One constant contributor to Cincinnati's sixth-rated pass offense (265.0 ypg) has been wideout Terrell Owens (45 receptions, 629 yards, 5 TD), with the controversial veteran averaging nearly 120 receiving yards and scoring five touchdowns over the past four games, and flashy running mate Chad Ochocinco (39 receptions, 458 yards, 2 TD) and a pair of rookies -- slot receiver Jordan Shipley (24 receptions, 1 TD) and tight end Jermaine Gresham (29 receptions, 2 TD) -- give Palmer plenty of good weapons to work with. The Bengals also possess a quality running back in Cedric Benson (545 rushing yards, 9 receptions, 3 total TD) but have had a hard time getting him untracked, as the ex-Bears first-round choice has had only one 100-yard game this year after breaking that barrier a club-record seven times last season.
While the Steelers have routinely shut down opposing running backs, the past few weeks have shown that this is a team that can be thrown on. Brees was a sharp 33-of-44 for 305 yards and two scores in last Sunday's matchup, while Cleveland rookie Colt McCoy hung 281 yards on Pittsburgh in his NFL regular- season debut two weeks prior. The Steelers have generated a solid 20 sacks on the season, and outside linebackers James Harrison (49 tackles, 6 sacks) and LaMarr Woodley (24 tackles, 3.5 sacks) will need to do their thing once again on Monday to protect cornerbacks Bryant McFadden (44 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and Ike Taylor (38 tackles, 2 INT, 5 PD) against Cincinnati's formidable cast of receivers.
Inside linebacker Lawrence Timmons (74 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT) will also be asked to blitz extensively in esteemed coordinator Dick LeBeau's aggressive scheme, and the fourth-year standout is also one of the pillars of a defense that's yielding a minuscule 58.9 rushing yards per game and 2.6 yards per attempt. A banged-up line anchored by sturdy nose tackle Casey Hampton (6 tackles, 1 sack) is slated to get unheralded end Brett Keisel (12 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) back from a hamstring strain that kept him out of the team's past two outings.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Pittsburgh by 5; O/U 40
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Pittsburgh -4.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Pittsburgh -6.78
_________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--CINCINNATI is 8-21 ATS (-15.2 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 18.4, OPPONENT 25.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--CINCINNATI is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 14.1, OPPONENT 21.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--PITTSBURGH is 80-52 ATS (+22.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 24.4, OPPONENT 16.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--PITTSBURGH is 50-29 ATS (+18.1 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 22.1, OPPONENT 16.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--PITTSBURGH is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 23.4, OPPONENT 17.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--PITTSBURGH is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 22.9, OPPONENT 15.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--PITTSBURGH is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 20.3, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--CINCINNATI is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 14.4, OPPONENT 19.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--CINCINNATI is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 14.4, OPPONENT 22.7 - (Rating = 1*)
--CINCINNATI is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 16.1, OPPONENT 13.4 - (Rating = 1*)
--CINCINNATI is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 11.5, OPPONENT 33.2 - (Rating = 1*)
--PITTSBURGH is 29-10 UNDER (+18.0 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 17.2, OPPONENT 17.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--PITTSBURGH is 74-51 OVER (+17.9 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 22.4, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--PITTSBURGH is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 26.3, OPPONENT 16.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--PITTSBURGH is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 26.8, OPPONENT 21.9 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--CINCINNATI is 47-69 against the 1rst half line (-28.9 Units) as an underdog of 2.5 to 6 points vs. the first half line since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 7.9, OPPONENT 13.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--CINCINNATI is 25-10 against the 1rst half line (+14.0 Units) in home games after playing a game at home since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 12.0, OPPONENT 9.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--CINCINNATI is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 15.0, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--CINCINNATI is 8-1 against the 1rst half line (+6.9 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 15.2, OPPONENT 6.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--PITTSBURGH is 80-51 against the 1rst half line (+23.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 12.5, OPPONENT 7.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--PITTSBURGH is 51-27 against the 1rst half line (+21.3 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 13.0, OPPONENT 7.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--CINCINNATI is 26-13 OVER (+11.7 Units) the 1rst half total as a home underdog of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 9.1, OPPONENT 15.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--CINCINNATI is 9-2 OVER (+6.8 Units) the 1rst half total off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 13.3, OPPONENT 11.9 - (Rating = 1*)
--CINCINNATI is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 10.2, OPPONENT 14.5 - (Rating = 1*)
--PITTSBURGH is 80-42 OVER (+33.8 Units) the 1rst half total after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 12.2, OPPONENT 9.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--PITTSBURGH is 64-38 OVER (+22.2 Units) the 1rst half total after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 11.8, OPPONENT 9.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (PITTSBURGH) - outrushing their opponents by 40 or more yards/game on the season, after allowing 30 or less rushing yards last game.
(27-6 since 1983.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.2, Opponent 5.4 (Average first half point differential = +8.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
--PLAY ON - Road teams (PITTSBURGH) - off a road loss, in November games.
(40-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.4%, +27.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (31-22 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.6
The average score in these games was: Team 20.1, Opponent 17.9 (Average point differential = +2.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 23 (46.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (64-31).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (128-79).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total (PITTSBURGH) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG).
(36-13 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.5%, +21.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 20.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.7, Opponent 10.9 (Total first half points scored = 22.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-6).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (75-54).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PITTSBURGH) - with a good rushing defense - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game.
(61-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.8%, +29.1 units. Rating = 2*)
The average total posted in these games was: 39.1
The average score in these games was: Team 22.9, Opponent 22.2 (Total points scored = 45.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 38 (41.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-15).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (86-66).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (235-232).
____________________________________________
• • • • • MONDAY NIGHT 22-2 ATS NFL WINNER! • • • • •
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Cincinnati and Pittsburgh knock helmets in a key AFC North matchup on Monday, and Stan is going to be right there with his 22-2 ATS, 91.6% Awesome Winning Angle inside the game. "Be sure to get it now, and win once again with 'The Man on Monday night!"
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/8
NBA & MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
________________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NBA & NFL*****
*** TERREL OWENS PUTS REVIVED CAREER ON MNF ***
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The 2009 Pittsburgh Steelers weren't able to sustain success after winning an AFC North title the previous season. It's a trend the 2010 Cincinnati Bengals are on pace to continue. The defending division champion Bengals hope to put an end to a painfully-long winless drought when the slumping club hosts the playoff-hopeful Steelers in a Week 9 Monday night showdown between AFC North rivals.
Cincinnati orchestrated one of the NFL's best turnarounds last season, bouncing back from a dreadful 4-11-1 campaign in 2008 to win 10 games and edge both Pittsburgh and Baltimore for the division crown. This year's edition started off with wins in two of its first three tests, but has since lost four consecutive times to fall three games behind both the Steelers and the Ravens in the current AFC North standings. The Bengals have still been competitive during their lengthy skid, as all four of the defeats have been by eight points or less and the team had a second- half lead in three of those games.
Cincinnati held an eight-point advantage late in the second quarter of last Sunday's clash with Miami, but its offense went cold after halftime and the Dolphins put up 16 unanswered points to come away with a 22-14 victory. The Bengals mustered a mere 78 total yards and five first downs over the final 30 minutes, with up-and-down quarterback Carson Palmer completing just 8-of-22 passes for 52 yards during that span.
While the talented Bengals have been viewed as underachievers, Pittsburgh exceeded most insiders' expectations by compiling a 3-1 record while starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger began the season serving a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy. The Steelers tacked on two more wins once Roethlisberger returned, but couldn't maintain the momentum in a 20-10 road setback to reigning Super Bowl champ New Orleans in Week 8.
Pittsburgh had its lowest offensive output this season with Roethlisberger under center, gaining a modest 279 total yards and 13 first downs against the Saints, while a usually air-tight defense was shredded for 305 passing yards by New Orleans triggerman Drew Brees and gave up a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns. The loss, the Steelers' first in four away dates so far in 2010, placed Pittsburgh in a tie with Baltimore for the top spot in the AFC North with a 5-2 record.
Cincinnati fell to 1-2 at home with last week's verdict and has now dropped nine of its past 12 overall games, which includes a loss to the visiting New York Jets in the AFC Wild Card Playoffs this past January, dating back to last season. The Bengals also often haven't fared well when facing Pittsburgh in recent years, and especially so on their home turf. The Steelers had prevailed in eight straight trips to Paul Brown Stadium, including a win in the 2005 AFC Playoffs, before Cincinnati came through with a 23-20 decision during September of last season.
• SERIES HISTORY
----------------------
The Steelers lead the all-time regular season series with the Bengals, 47-32, but were swept in last year's home-and-home with their longtime division rival. As previously noted, Cincinnati was a 23-20 home winner when the teams met in Week 3, and completed its first sweep of Pittsburgh since 1998 with an 18-12 win at Heinz Field in Week 10. The Steelers had a five-game winning streak in the series entering 2009, including home-and-home sweeps in 2007 and 2008.
With a win on Monday, the Bengals will have their first three-game winning streak over the Steelers since taking six in a row from 1988-90. That period also ranks as the last time Pittsburgh lost in Cincinnati in back-to-back seasons. In addition to their regular-season advantage, the Steelers also scored a 31-17 road win over the Bengals in the 2005 playoffs.
Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis is 5-10 all-time against the Steelers, for whom he served as a linebackers coach from 2002 through 2005, while Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin is 4-2 against both Lewis and Cincinnati as a head coach.
• WHEN THE STEELERS HAVE THE BALL
------------------------------------------------
Though it wasn't evident last week, the Pittsburgh offense has become a more balanced and dangerous outfit with Roethlisberger (754 passing yards, 5 TD, 2 INT) at the controls. The Steelers have averaged 239.3 passing yards in the three games the two-time Super Bowl champion signal-caller has started, an upgrade of more than 100 yards from the ones managed by substitutes Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch, and go-to receiver Hines Ward (27 receptions, 3 TD) has seen a noticeable spike in his numbers during Big Ben's tenure.
One player who hasn't benefited from the switch is running back Rashard Mendenhall (603 rushing yards, 6 TD, 11 receptions), who hasn't eclipsed 84 rushing yards in any of Roethlisberger's starts after totaling 411 yards over the first four weeks as the offense's centerpiece. The third-year pro did rip off a 38-yard run for Pittsburgh's lone touchdown against the Saints, but was held to just 33 yards on his other 14 attempts. New Orleans also did a good job of taking away the big-play ability of wide receiver Mike Wallace (17 receptions, 4 TD), the NFL's leader in yards per catch (23.4 avg.) this season, and getting Roethlisberger out of rhythm by applying persistent pressure. The Pittsburgh field general has been sacked six times over the past two weeks and was taken down a league-high 50 times a year ago.
Roethlisberger may not have to worry about having inadequate time to throw on Monday, considering the Bengals have been horrendous at getting to the quarterback all season long. Cincinnati has produced a paltry six sacks through the first seven games, and two have come on blitzes by free safety Chris Crocker (40 tackles, 2 sacks). That dearth of a pass rush, not to mention a high ankle sprain suffered by standout cornerback Johnathan Joseph (15 tackles, 1 INT), has had a profound effect on a defense that comes in ranked 20th in passing yards allowed (221.3 ypg).
Joseph is expected to return from his two-game absence this week, however, and will again team with counterpart Leon Hall (23 tackles, 4 INT, 7 PD) to provide the strength of a unit that hasn't come close to matching the level of play it did during last year's playoff run. The Bengals have particularly struggled against the run, having surrendered an average of 132.8 rushing yards per game over their present losing streak. Starting strong safety Roy Williams (17 tackles) hasn't been present for three of those defeats due to a sprained knee, but the brittle ex-Cowboy should be ready to go on Monday and assist in that area.
• WHEN THE BENGALS HAVE THE BALL
------------------------------------------------
No team has been able to effectively run the ball on the Steelers this year, so the onus will be on Palmer (1855 passing yards, 12 TD, 7 INT) to get the Bengals moving down the field with his erratic right arm. It's hard to gauge what to expect from the former Heisman Trophy winner, as he followed up a three-interception showing in a Week 5 loss to Tampa Bay with a brilliant 412- yard, three-touchdown display against Atlanta, then hit on an awful 17-of-38 throws for 156 and was picked off twice by the Dolphins last week.
One constant contributor to Cincinnati's sixth-rated pass offense (265.0 ypg) has been wideout Terrell Owens (45 receptions, 629 yards, 5 TD), with the controversial veteran averaging nearly 120 receiving yards and scoring five touchdowns over the past four games, and flashy running mate Chad Ochocinco (39 receptions, 458 yards, 2 TD) and a pair of rookies -- slot receiver Jordan Shipley (24 receptions, 1 TD) and tight end Jermaine Gresham (29 receptions, 2 TD) -- give Palmer plenty of good weapons to work with. The Bengals also possess a quality running back in Cedric Benson (545 rushing yards, 9 receptions, 3 total TD) but have had a hard time getting him untracked, as the ex-Bears first-round choice has had only one 100-yard game this year after breaking that barrier a club-record seven times last season.
While the Steelers have routinely shut down opposing running backs, the past few weeks have shown that this is a team that can be thrown on. Brees was a sharp 33-of-44 for 305 yards and two scores in last Sunday's matchup, while Cleveland rookie Colt McCoy hung 281 yards on Pittsburgh in his NFL regular- season debut two weeks prior. The Steelers have generated a solid 20 sacks on the season, and outside linebackers James Harrison (49 tackles, 6 sacks) and LaMarr Woodley (24 tackles, 3.5 sacks) will need to do their thing once again on Monday to protect cornerbacks Bryant McFadden (44 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and Ike Taylor (38 tackles, 2 INT, 5 PD) against Cincinnati's formidable cast of receivers.
Inside linebacker Lawrence Timmons (74 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT) will also be asked to blitz extensively in esteemed coordinator Dick LeBeau's aggressive scheme, and the fourth-year standout is also one of the pillars of a defense that's yielding a minuscule 58.9 rushing yards per game and 2.6 yards per attempt. A banged-up line anchored by sturdy nose tackle Casey Hampton (6 tackles, 1 sack) is slated to get unheralded end Brett Keisel (12 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) back from a hamstring strain that kept him out of the team's past two outings.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Pittsburgh by 5; O/U 40
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Pittsburgh -4.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Pittsburgh -6.78
_________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--CINCINNATI is 8-21 ATS (-15.2 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 18.4, OPPONENT 25.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--CINCINNATI is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 14.1, OPPONENT 21.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--PITTSBURGH is 80-52 ATS (+22.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 24.4, OPPONENT 16.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--PITTSBURGH is 50-29 ATS (+18.1 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 22.1, OPPONENT 16.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--PITTSBURGH is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 23.4, OPPONENT 17.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--PITTSBURGH is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 22.9, OPPONENT 15.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--PITTSBURGH is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 20.3, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--CINCINNATI is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 14.4, OPPONENT 19.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--CINCINNATI is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 14.4, OPPONENT 22.7 - (Rating = 1*)
--CINCINNATI is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 16.1, OPPONENT 13.4 - (Rating = 1*)
--CINCINNATI is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 11.5, OPPONENT 33.2 - (Rating = 1*)
--PITTSBURGH is 29-10 UNDER (+18.0 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 17.2, OPPONENT 17.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--PITTSBURGH is 74-51 OVER (+17.9 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 22.4, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--PITTSBURGH is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 26.3, OPPONENT 16.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--PITTSBURGH is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 26.8, OPPONENT 21.9 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--CINCINNATI is 47-69 against the 1rst half line (-28.9 Units) as an underdog of 2.5 to 6 points vs. the first half line since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 7.9, OPPONENT 13.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--CINCINNATI is 25-10 against the 1rst half line (+14.0 Units) in home games after playing a game at home since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 12.0, OPPONENT 9.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--CINCINNATI is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 15.0, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--CINCINNATI is 8-1 against the 1rst half line (+6.9 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 15.2, OPPONENT 6.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--PITTSBURGH is 80-51 against the 1rst half line (+23.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 12.5, OPPONENT 7.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--PITTSBURGH is 51-27 against the 1rst half line (+21.3 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 13.0, OPPONENT 7.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--CINCINNATI is 26-13 OVER (+11.7 Units) the 1rst half total as a home underdog of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 9.1, OPPONENT 15.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--CINCINNATI is 9-2 OVER (+6.8 Units) the 1rst half total off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 13.3, OPPONENT 11.9 - (Rating = 1*)
--CINCINNATI is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 10.2, OPPONENT 14.5 - (Rating = 1*)
--PITTSBURGH is 80-42 OVER (+33.8 Units) the 1rst half total after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 12.2, OPPONENT 9.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--PITTSBURGH is 64-38 OVER (+22.2 Units) the 1rst half total after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 11.8, OPPONENT 9.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (PITTSBURGH) - outrushing their opponents by 40 or more yards/game on the season, after allowing 30 or less rushing yards last game.
(27-6 since 1983.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.2, Opponent 5.4 (Average first half point differential = +8.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
--PLAY ON - Road teams (PITTSBURGH) - off a road loss, in November games.
(40-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.4%, +27.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (31-22 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.6
The average score in these games was: Team 20.1, Opponent 17.9 (Average point differential = +2.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 23 (46.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (64-31).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (128-79).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total (PITTSBURGH) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG).
(36-13 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.5%, +21.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 20.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.7, Opponent 10.9 (Total first half points scored = 22.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-6).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (75-54).
--PLAY OVER - Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PITTSBURGH) - with a good rushing defense - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game.
(61-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.8%, +29.1 units. Rating = 2*)
The average total posted in these games was: 39.1
The average score in these games was: Team 22.9, Opponent 22.2 (Total points scored = 45.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 38 (41.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-15).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (86-66).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (235-232).
____________________________________________
• • • • • MONDAY NIGHT 22-2 ATS NFL WINNER! • • • • •
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Cincinnati and Pittsburgh knock helmets in a key AFC North matchup on Monday, and Stan is going to be right there with his 22-2 ATS, 91.6% Awesome Winning Angle inside the game. "Be sure to get it now, and win once again with 'The Man on Monday night!"
STATSYSTEMS REPORT 11/8 cont.
*** SAN ANTONIO (-3.5, O/U 188.5) @ CHARLOTTE ***
------------------------------------------------------------------
The San Antonio Spurs are rolling with three consecutive wins and have motivation for a fourth. The Spurs look to avenge a rare loss to the Bobcats on Monday when the teams meet in Charlotte. San Antonio is 10-2 all-time against the Bobcats and had won five in a row at Time Warner Cable Arena before losing 92-76 on Jan. 15. The Bobcats have been held to an average of 82.7 points in their twelve games against the Spurs their lowest against any team in the NBA, and offensive production could be again tough to come by for a team ranked 29th in the league at 89.7 per game.
Tony Parker scored San Antonio’s first seven points in overtime of its 124-121 victory over Houston on Saturday. While he finished with 21 points and a season-high 14 assists, Parker was upset with how the Spurs failed to finish off the Rockets in regulation. “We have no excuse. We didn’t play well enough. We let them back in the game and then we had to fight,” he said. “I’m happy we ended up with a win. This would be tough loss because in March, you would be mad at yourself for losing. I’m happy we won and are learning from it and hopefully we play better next game.”
The Spurs should be looking for another solid performance out of their three-time All Star, as they are 7-0 against the Bobcats when Parker records five or more assists. Charlotte is 1-5 for the third time in the seven-year history of the franchise, and is hoping to avoid its first 0-3 start at home. Gerald Wallace scored 25 points and grabbed a season-high 14 rebounds in Saturday night’s 91-88 loss to Orlando as Charlotte was held to 36 first-half points.
“We’ve got the will,” Wallace, who leads the team with 19.0 points and 8.0 rebounds per game, told the Bobcats’ official website. “We know we have the heart to fight. Right now we’re like Rocky but we don’t start until after the sixth round when we’re all swollen up. We’ve got to come out in the first round and, as they say in boxing terms, establish our jab and get moving around the ring. “We have to come out and be the aggressor and try to make a statement, and right now we aren’t doing that.”
While Wallace continues to be the Bobcats No. 1 option on offense, he is averaging just 9.1 points against the Spurs, his lowest total versus any team over his career. The Bobcats are scoring an NBA-low 20.5 points in the first quarter, but Stephen Jackson second on the team in scoring feels that better days are ahead. “We’ve got to continue to fight, follow our game plan and good things will happen,” said Jackson. “We have to find a way to bring the energy from the beginning of the game. We’ve got to keep working, stay positive and try to turn this thing around.”
*STAN'S FORECASTER - San Antonio by 3; O/U 187
*STAN'S POWER LINE - San Antonio -2
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - San Antonio -4.89
____________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--CHARLOTTE is 20-40 ATS (-24.0 Units) against Southwest division opponents since 1996.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 88.9, OPPONENT 97.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHARLOTTE is 51-33 ATS (+14.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 96.8, OPPONENT 97.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHARLOTTE is 45-29 ATS (+13.1 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 94.9, OPPONENT 94.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--CHARLOTTE is 49-33 ATS (+12.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 97.8, OPPONENT 94.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games off a close home win by 3 points or less since 1996.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 94.2, OPPONENT 87.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 99.2, OPPONENT 93.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--CHARLOTTE is 20-5 UNDER (+14.5 Units) after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds since 1996.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 94.0, OPPONENT 92.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 32-15 UNDER (+15.5 Units) in road games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams - making >=80% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 92.8, OPPONENT 93.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 38-21 UNDER (+14.9 Units) against Southeast division opponents since 1996.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 97.0, OPPONENT 88.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 19-6 UNDER (+12.4 Units) in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 97.9, OPPONENT 89.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 32-19 UNDER (+11.1 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 99.0, OPPONENT 97.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) in road games versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 91.5, OPPONENT 87.0 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--CHARLOTTE is 47-25 against the 1rst half line (+19.5 Units) in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 48.9, OPPONENT 47.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHARLOTTE is 44-24 against the 1rst half line (+17.6 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game since 1996.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 49.4, OPPONENT 50.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHARLOTTE is 53-34 against the 1rst half line (+15.6 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 48.2, OPPONENT 47.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 42-22 against the 1rst half line (+17.8 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 50.2, OPPONENT 45.4 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--CHARLOTTE is 33-15 UNDER (+16.5 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after playing a game as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 47.5, OPPONENT 45.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHARLOTTE is 31-14 UNDER (+15.6 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 46.5, OPPONENT 44.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 41-21 UNDER (+17.8 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 48.8, OPPONENT 42.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 29-12 UNDER (+15.7 Units) the 1rst half total in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 48.5, OPPONENT 45.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 90 points or less 3 straight games.
(24-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50.1, Opponent 46.1 (Average first half point differential = +4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-2).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (51-26).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home teams (CHARLOTTE) - after scoring 90 points or less 3 straight games against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more.
(26-6 since 1996.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (20-15)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3
The average score in these games was: Team 95.2, Opponent 92.1 (Average point differential = +3.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (48.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-0).
--PLAY OVER - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (SAN ANTONIO) - first 6 games of the season, playoff team from prior season who lost their last 3 games, in a game involving two teams who had marginal winning records (51% to 60%) last season.
(26-7 since 1996.) (78.8%, +18.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 95.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.1, Opponent 50.8 (Total first half points scored = 99.9)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-4).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - off a close win by 3 points or less over a division rival, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days.
(46-14 since 1996.) (76.7%, +30.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 185.5
The average score in these games was: Team 98.4, Opponent 96.4 (Total points scored = 194.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 34 (57.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
_________________________________________
Experience is what this business is all about, and good money can be made if one has the right connections. Stan 'The Man' prides himself on uncovering the edge that gives his customers the ability to beat the sports books on a consistent basis. Stan is a full time Expert Handicapper that can help you consistently beat the books. With any package that you purchase it is fully guaranteed that you show a profit, or he'll extend your service at no charge. If you have any questions about our services call 1-800 -351-4640, “You’ll be real glad you did!” -Stan
___________________________________________
*** GOLDEN STATE @ TORONTO (-2.5, O/U 216.5)
------------------------------------------------------------
The Golden State Warriors are off to their best start in five years, but that success hasn’t yet extended outside the Bay Area. Perhaps a trip north of the border could be what they need. The Warriors try again for their first road victory of the season Monday night, when they look to defeat the Toronto Raptors for the fourth consecutive time. Golden State has won four of its first six games for the first time since 2005-06, but all four wins have come at home while the club has dropped both of its road games.
The Warriors, who finished 8-33 away from home last season compared to a 21-20 mark in Oakland, opened a five-game trip Sunday night with a 102-97 loss at Detroit. “We need to start to establish that identity on the road,” said forward David Lee who had 11 points and seven rebounds. “We need to find a way and we just had too many careless mistakes. It seems like each guy out on the floor tonight made one careless mistake or so that led to an easy bucket by them or led to a missed opportunity for us."
The Warriors appear to have a good chance to do just that. They’ve defeated the Raptors three straight times and are 8-2 in this series since the start of 2005-06, averaging a whopping 113.5 points in those 10 meetings. They won 113-112 in Toronto on April 4.
Lee, an offseason acquisition from New York, is averaging a double-double (12.0 points, 11.3 rebounds) but has only achieved that feat in the four victories - he’s failed to get a double-double in the road defeats. He and Andris Biedrins (10.2 rpg) are major reasons why the Warriors are averaging 46.5 rebounds per game - up sharply from their 38.4 mark in 2009-10. Golden State has outrebounded its opponent in each home game, but has yet to do so on the road. Monta Ellis averaging a league-leading 27.8 points had 24 in the loss to the Pistons but went 0-for-5 from 3-point range. He tied a career high with five 3-pointers against the Raptors in the Warriors’ 124-112 home win March 13.
While the Warriors are seeking to break into the win column on the road, Toronto should be looking forward to getting back home after a winless four-game trip. The Raptors shot a season-low 36.8 percent in their 97-84 loss to Portland on Saturday night, dropping to 0-4 on the road for the sixth time in their 16-year history. “Get to the free throw line. Let’s go somewhere where we can find ways to score, put them in foul trouble and get some of their guys out,” Coach Jay Triano said. “Go to the bench and look for a better combination."
Second-year pro DeMar DeRozan who was averaging 15.6 points before scoring two on 1-for-10 shooting against the Trail Blazers, remains confident despite the Raptors’ poor start. “Every game we go out and we do something extremely well,” he said. “At the end of the day we just need to put it all together. This hard work is going to pay off for us.”
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Toronto by 2; O/U 217
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Toronto -3.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Toronto -0.58
________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--TORONTO is 35-56 ATS (-26.6 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 100.6, OPPONENT 104.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--TORONTO is 36-54 ATS (-23.4 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 100.7, OPPONENT 104.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 101.9, OPPONENT 107.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--TORONTO is 31-47 ATS (-20.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 98.9, OPPONENT 105.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) off a road loss over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 102.9, OPPONENT 109.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 24-6 ATS (+17.4 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 114.7, OPPONENT 113.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 109.2, OPPONENT 112.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 51-35 ATS (+12.5 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 108.6, OPPONENT 111.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 111.2, OPPONENT 110.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 113.6, OPPONENT 110.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 111.4, OPPONENT 107.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 110.8, OPPONENT 115.7 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--TORONTO is 41-16 OVER (+23.4 Units) after scoring 35 points or less in the first half last game since 1996.
The average score was TORONTO 95.3, OPPONENT 96.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--TORONTO is 59-39 OVER (+16.4 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 101.9, OPPONENT 105.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 49-31 OVER (+14.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 98.9, OPPONENT 105.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 35-15 OVER (+18.4 Units) after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 17 or more turnovers since 1996.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 104.7, OPPONENT 108.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 43-24 UNDER (+16.6 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 105.0, OPPONENT 114.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--GOLDEN STATE is 12-1 against the 1rst half line (+10.9 Units) in road games off an upset loss as a road favorite since 1996.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 60.3, OPPONENT 52.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 13-3 against the 1rst half line (+9.7 Units) in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 57.4, OPPONENT 56.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--TORONTO is 52-28 OVER (+21.2 Units) the 1rst half total versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 52.1, OPPONENT 54.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--TORONTO is 34-14 OVER (+18.6 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 54.5, OPPONENT 53.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 31-12 OVER (+17.8 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 54.7, OPPONENT 54.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 46-27 OVER (+16.3 Units) the 1rst half total when the first half total >= 100.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 53.8, OPPONENT 54.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 31-14 OVER (+15.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 54.6, OPPONENT 54.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 15-3 OVER (+11.7 Units) the 1rst half total when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 58.8, OPPONENT 56.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 59.4, OPPONENT 60.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 61.6, OPPONENT 58.9 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (TORONTO) - off a road loss, marginal losing team from last season (40% to 49%) playing a team who had a losing record.
(24-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.7, Opponent 45.3 (Average first half point differential = +3.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (31-13).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is greater than 105 (TORONTO) - average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO's).
(36-13 since 1996.) (73.5%, +21.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 109.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 54.3, Opponent 59 (Total first half points scored = 113.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (25-9).
*** SAN ANTONIO (-3.5, O/U 188.5) @ CHARLOTTE ***
------------------------------------------------------------------
The San Antonio Spurs are rolling with three consecutive wins and have motivation for a fourth. The Spurs look to avenge a rare loss to the Bobcats on Monday when the teams meet in Charlotte. San Antonio is 10-2 all-time against the Bobcats and had won five in a row at Time Warner Cable Arena before losing 92-76 on Jan. 15. The Bobcats have been held to an average of 82.7 points in their twelve games against the Spurs their lowest against any team in the NBA, and offensive production could be again tough to come by for a team ranked 29th in the league at 89.7 per game.
Tony Parker scored San Antonio’s first seven points in overtime of its 124-121 victory over Houston on Saturday. While he finished with 21 points and a season-high 14 assists, Parker was upset with how the Spurs failed to finish off the Rockets in regulation. “We have no excuse. We didn’t play well enough. We let them back in the game and then we had to fight,” he said. “I’m happy we ended up with a win. This would be tough loss because in March, you would be mad at yourself for losing. I’m happy we won and are learning from it and hopefully we play better next game.”
The Spurs should be looking for another solid performance out of their three-time All Star, as they are 7-0 against the Bobcats when Parker records five or more assists. Charlotte is 1-5 for the third time in the seven-year history of the franchise, and is hoping to avoid its first 0-3 start at home. Gerald Wallace scored 25 points and grabbed a season-high 14 rebounds in Saturday night’s 91-88 loss to Orlando as Charlotte was held to 36 first-half points.
“We’ve got the will,” Wallace, who leads the team with 19.0 points and 8.0 rebounds per game, told the Bobcats’ official website. “We know we have the heart to fight. Right now we’re like Rocky but we don’t start until after the sixth round when we’re all swollen up. We’ve got to come out in the first round and, as they say in boxing terms, establish our jab and get moving around the ring. “We have to come out and be the aggressor and try to make a statement, and right now we aren’t doing that.”
While Wallace continues to be the Bobcats No. 1 option on offense, he is averaging just 9.1 points against the Spurs, his lowest total versus any team over his career. The Bobcats are scoring an NBA-low 20.5 points in the first quarter, but Stephen Jackson second on the team in scoring feels that better days are ahead. “We’ve got to continue to fight, follow our game plan and good things will happen,” said Jackson. “We have to find a way to bring the energy from the beginning of the game. We’ve got to keep working, stay positive and try to turn this thing around.”
*STAN'S FORECASTER - San Antonio by 3; O/U 187
*STAN'S POWER LINE - San Antonio -2
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - San Antonio -4.89
____________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--CHARLOTTE is 20-40 ATS (-24.0 Units) against Southwest division opponents since 1996.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 88.9, OPPONENT 97.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHARLOTTE is 51-33 ATS (+14.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 96.8, OPPONENT 97.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHARLOTTE is 45-29 ATS (+13.1 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 94.9, OPPONENT 94.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--CHARLOTTE is 49-33 ATS (+12.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 97.8, OPPONENT 94.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games off a close home win by 3 points or less since 1996.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 94.2, OPPONENT 87.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 99.2, OPPONENT 93.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--CHARLOTTE is 20-5 UNDER (+14.5 Units) after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds since 1996.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 94.0, OPPONENT 92.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 32-15 UNDER (+15.5 Units) in road games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams - making >=80% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 92.8, OPPONENT 93.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 38-21 UNDER (+14.9 Units) against Southeast division opponents since 1996.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 97.0, OPPONENT 88.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 19-6 UNDER (+12.4 Units) in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 97.9, OPPONENT 89.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 32-19 UNDER (+11.1 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 99.0, OPPONENT 97.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) in road games versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 91.5, OPPONENT 87.0 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--CHARLOTTE is 47-25 against the 1rst half line (+19.5 Units) in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 48.9, OPPONENT 47.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHARLOTTE is 44-24 against the 1rst half line (+17.6 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game since 1996.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 49.4, OPPONENT 50.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHARLOTTE is 53-34 against the 1rst half line (+15.6 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 48.2, OPPONENT 47.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 42-22 against the 1rst half line (+17.8 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 50.2, OPPONENT 45.4 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--CHARLOTTE is 33-15 UNDER (+16.5 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after playing a game as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 47.5, OPPONENT 45.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHARLOTTE is 31-14 UNDER (+15.6 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 46.5, OPPONENT 44.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 41-21 UNDER (+17.8 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 48.8, OPPONENT 42.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--SAN ANTONIO is 29-12 UNDER (+15.7 Units) the 1rst half total in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 48.5, OPPONENT 45.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 90 points or less 3 straight games.
(24-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50.1, Opponent 46.1 (Average first half point differential = +4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-2).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (51-26).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home teams (CHARLOTTE) - after scoring 90 points or less 3 straight games against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more.
(26-6 since 1996.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (20-15)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3
The average score in these games was: Team 95.2, Opponent 92.1 (Average point differential = +3.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (48.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-0).
--PLAY OVER - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (SAN ANTONIO) - first 6 games of the season, playoff team from prior season who lost their last 3 games, in a game involving two teams who had marginal winning records (51% to 60%) last season.
(26-7 since 1996.) (78.8%, +18.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 95.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.1, Opponent 50.8 (Total first half points scored = 99.9)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-4).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - off a close win by 3 points or less over a division rival, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days.
(46-14 since 1996.) (76.7%, +30.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 185.5
The average score in these games was: Team 98.4, Opponent 96.4 (Total points scored = 194.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 34 (57.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
_________________________________________
Experience is what this business is all about, and good money can be made if one has the right connections. Stan 'The Man' prides himself on uncovering the edge that gives his customers the ability to beat the sports books on a consistent basis. Stan is a full time Expert Handicapper that can help you consistently beat the books. With any package that you purchase it is fully guaranteed that you show a profit, or he'll extend your service at no charge. If you have any questions about our services call 1-800 -351-4640, “You’ll be real glad you did!” -Stan
___________________________________________
*** GOLDEN STATE @ TORONTO (-2.5, O/U 216.5)
------------------------------------------------------------
The Golden State Warriors are off to their best start in five years, but that success hasn’t yet extended outside the Bay Area. Perhaps a trip north of the border could be what they need. The Warriors try again for their first road victory of the season Monday night, when they look to defeat the Toronto Raptors for the fourth consecutive time. Golden State has won four of its first six games for the first time since 2005-06, but all four wins have come at home while the club has dropped both of its road games.
The Warriors, who finished 8-33 away from home last season compared to a 21-20 mark in Oakland, opened a five-game trip Sunday night with a 102-97 loss at Detroit. “We need to start to establish that identity on the road,” said forward David Lee who had 11 points and seven rebounds. “We need to find a way and we just had too many careless mistakes. It seems like each guy out on the floor tonight made one careless mistake or so that led to an easy bucket by them or led to a missed opportunity for us."
The Warriors appear to have a good chance to do just that. They’ve defeated the Raptors three straight times and are 8-2 in this series since the start of 2005-06, averaging a whopping 113.5 points in those 10 meetings. They won 113-112 in Toronto on April 4.
Lee, an offseason acquisition from New York, is averaging a double-double (12.0 points, 11.3 rebounds) but has only achieved that feat in the four victories - he’s failed to get a double-double in the road defeats. He and Andris Biedrins (10.2 rpg) are major reasons why the Warriors are averaging 46.5 rebounds per game - up sharply from their 38.4 mark in 2009-10. Golden State has outrebounded its opponent in each home game, but has yet to do so on the road. Monta Ellis averaging a league-leading 27.8 points had 24 in the loss to the Pistons but went 0-for-5 from 3-point range. He tied a career high with five 3-pointers against the Raptors in the Warriors’ 124-112 home win March 13.
While the Warriors are seeking to break into the win column on the road, Toronto should be looking forward to getting back home after a winless four-game trip. The Raptors shot a season-low 36.8 percent in their 97-84 loss to Portland on Saturday night, dropping to 0-4 on the road for the sixth time in their 16-year history. “Get to the free throw line. Let’s go somewhere where we can find ways to score, put them in foul trouble and get some of their guys out,” Coach Jay Triano said. “Go to the bench and look for a better combination."
Second-year pro DeMar DeRozan who was averaging 15.6 points before scoring two on 1-for-10 shooting against the Trail Blazers, remains confident despite the Raptors’ poor start. “Every game we go out and we do something extremely well,” he said. “At the end of the day we just need to put it all together. This hard work is going to pay off for us.”
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Toronto by 2; O/U 217
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Toronto -3.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Toronto -0.58
________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--TORONTO is 35-56 ATS (-26.6 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 100.6, OPPONENT 104.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--TORONTO is 36-54 ATS (-23.4 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 100.7, OPPONENT 104.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 101.9, OPPONENT 107.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--TORONTO is 31-47 ATS (-20.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 98.9, OPPONENT 105.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) off a road loss over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 102.9, OPPONENT 109.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 24-6 ATS (+17.4 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 114.7, OPPONENT 113.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 109.2, OPPONENT 112.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 51-35 ATS (+12.5 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 108.6, OPPONENT 111.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 111.2, OPPONENT 110.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 113.6, OPPONENT 110.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 111.4, OPPONENT 107.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 110.8, OPPONENT 115.7 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--TORONTO is 41-16 OVER (+23.4 Units) after scoring 35 points or less in the first half last game since 1996.
The average score was TORONTO 95.3, OPPONENT 96.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--TORONTO is 59-39 OVER (+16.4 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 101.9, OPPONENT 105.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 49-31 OVER (+14.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 98.9, OPPONENT 105.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 35-15 OVER (+18.4 Units) after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 17 or more turnovers since 1996.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 104.7, OPPONENT 108.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 43-24 UNDER (+16.6 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 105.0, OPPONENT 114.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--GOLDEN STATE is 12-1 against the 1rst half line (+10.9 Units) in road games off an upset loss as a road favorite since 1996.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 60.3, OPPONENT 52.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 13-3 against the 1rst half line (+9.7 Units) in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 57.4, OPPONENT 56.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--TORONTO is 52-28 OVER (+21.2 Units) the 1rst half total versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 52.1, OPPONENT 54.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--TORONTO is 34-14 OVER (+18.6 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 54.5, OPPONENT 53.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 31-12 OVER (+17.8 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 54.7, OPPONENT 54.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 46-27 OVER (+16.3 Units) the 1rst half total when the first half total >= 100.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 53.8, OPPONENT 54.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--TORONTO is 31-14 OVER (+15.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 54.6, OPPONENT 54.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 15-3 OVER (+11.7 Units) the 1rst half total when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 58.8, OPPONENT 56.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 59.4, OPPONENT 60.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 61.6, OPPONENT 58.9 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (TORONTO) - off a road loss, marginal losing team from last season (40% to 49%) playing a team who had a losing record.
(24-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.7, Opponent 45.3 (Average first half point differential = +3.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (31-13).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is greater than 105 (TORONTO) - average shooting team (43.5-45.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO's).
(36-13 since 1996.) (73.5%, +21.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 109.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 54.3, Opponent 59 (Total first half points scored = 113.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (25-9).
STATSYSTEMS REPORT 11/8 cont.
*** ATLANTA @ ORLANDO (NL) ***
--------------------------------------------
The Orlando Magic brushed aside the upstart Atlanta Hawks six months ago. Injuries to a pair of key players might make that task more difficult. The Magic could be without Vince Carter and Jameer Nelson on Monday night when they seek to continue their recent dominance of the visiting Hawks. Orlando swept Atlanta in the second round of last season’s playoffs, winning the four games by an average of 25.3 points. Including that sweep, the Magic have won 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series overall and five in a row at home over the Hawks.
Injuries might help end that streak. Carter, who averaged 18.3 points and shot 51.0 percent against Atlanta in the playoffs, exited Saturday’s 91-88 win at Charlotte in the final minutes after suffering a strained right hip flexor when he slipped on a wet spot and fell hard on the court. Coach Stan Van Gundy was upset about the injury, which left Carter’s status uncertain. “It was a needless injury and that’s what (ticks) me off,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said. “He was pretty hurt and wasn’t coming back into that game.”
Van Gundy also has cause to be concerned with Nelson’s health. The point guard sat out Saturday’s victory with a left ankle injury suffered the previous night in a 105-90 win over New Jersey. “It’s getting better and I’m just trying to get as much treatment as I can before (Monday) and see how it feels then,” said Nelson, who averaged 17.3 points and 6.0 assists in the postseason sweep of the Hawks. “There is no timetable.”
Continued strong production from Dwight Howard could soften the blow of the potential absences. The four-time All-Star center leads the Magic with averages of 22.4 points per game, 11.4 rebounds and 3.0 blocks. He posted similar numbers - 21.0 points, 13.3 boards and 2.8 blocks - against Atlanta in the playoffs. Atlanta hasn’t won in Orlando since Oct. 29, 2008. The Hawks are also looking to open 5-0 on the road for the first time since 1967, when the franchise was located in St. Louis.
They lost some momentum Sunday, falling 118-114 at home to Phoenix to end their season-opening winning streak at six. “We gotta refocus. We gotta go down there and be men on a mission,” Coach Larry Drew said. “We let this one get away at home (Sunday). We’re playing against a team that has pretty much had their way with us in the last few games. It’s time for us to stand up and be counted. We gotta go down there to see what we’re made of.”
Swingman Joe Johnson and center Al Horford scored season highs in the loss to the Suns. Johnson had 34 points while Horford added 30, shot 13 for 16 and hauled in 10 rebounds. Johnson and Horford struggled against the Magic last season, averaging 14.5 points and 10.5, respectively, in eight meetings. Johnson shot just 29.8 percent in the playoff series, including 3 for 17 from 3-point range.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Orlando by 8; O/U 203.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Orlando -11.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Orlando -7.68
__________________________________________
NOTE: There are no Potential Stat/Systems Sports Power Trends (due to NL) based on estimated statistics with records of significance that apply to this game.
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (ORLANDO) - off a road win, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season.
(28-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.7%, +18.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50.6, Opponent 48 (Average first half point differential = +2.6)
The situation's record this season is: (5-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (59-45).
________________________________________
NBA betting is becoming more popular each year. This is known as one of the sports where a smart bettor who practiced proper money management can make some really huge profits. Once a bettor begins to study and understand NBA Odds, he or she can gain a better understanding of how the bookies set their numbers. The bookies set a lot of these NBA Odds with the public in mind. They know the public is going to bet the Lakers and Bulls (and other public teams) every week so there are some great situations to get good numbers by going against teams like that.
It is always best to shop around when looking for the best NBA Odds. Many different books release different numbers and NBA Odds always tend to differ at each sportsbook. If you are truly interested in finding the best NBA Odds, it is always best to have funded accounts at - at least five sportsbooks.
_____________________________________________
*** DENVER @ CHICAGO (-2.5, O/U 205.5) ***
-------------------------------------------------------
Injuries have forced the Denver Nuggets to use a smaller lineup in the first weeks of the season. After struggling to adjust, they seem to have found a rhythm in the last two games. The Nuggets will try to win their third straight Monday night when they visit the Chicago Bulls. Already without Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen who are both recovering from offseason knee surgeries, Denver has played its last three games without Nene due to a groin injury. It’s not certain if he’ll be available Monday.
After a 102-101 loss to Dallas on Wednesday, the Nuggets appear to have figured out how to take advantage of their smaller, quicker lineup. They shot a season-high 51.8 percent in a 111-104 win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday - their highest-scoring game of the season. Then on Saturday against Dallas, they hit 13 of 21 3-point attempts in a 103-92 victory, forcing 21 turnovers. Denver’s tallest starter was 6-foot-9 Shelden Williams.
One night after scoring a season-high 30 points, Carmelo Anthony had 27 on Saturday, going 4 of 4 beyond the arc. He hit three 3-pointers in the final 3:47. “They’re a unique team with their shot-making ability,” Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle said. “They can rise up on their 3-point shooting. It was a big turnaround from the other game.” Denver ranked 10th in the NBA last season with 46.8 percent shooting. However, it was off to a slow start this season, shooting 43.8 percent over its first four games.
The Nuggets’ quick lineup could pose trouble for Chicago which has lost its last two. The Bulls hired former Boston assistant Tom Thibodeau as their head coach in hopes of improving their defense, but they’ve allowed 105.0 points per game after yielding 99.1 points last season. After New York hit 16 3-pointers in a 120-112 victory at the United Center on Thursday, the Bulls allowed the Celtics to shoot 51.2 percent in their 110-105 overtime win on Friday. Chicago was outscored 30-15 in the second quarter.
“We’ve got to keep working on that,” Thibodeau told the Bulls’ official website. “I think they went 16-2 to start the second quarter, so you know that’s something we need to address and correct.” Joakim Noah had a career-high 26 points and 12 rebounds for his fifth straight double-double, but he had a late turnover when he tried to bring the ball up court with Chicago trailing 108-105 with 14.9 seconds left.
“I can’t lose the ball in that situation,” Noah said. “I think we’re not there yet, but we’re pretty close. We’re only going to get better, and when we do, it’s going to get real ugly for everybody who’s talking real crazy. All the trash that people are talking right now is going to come back and haunt them. Because when it counts, we’ll be ready.”
The Bulls, who erased a 16-point deficit to force overtime, had 20 turnovers for a second straight game. Derrick Rose who finished with 18 points, had six of them. Although he’s averaging a career-best 9.8 assists, Rose has also seen an increase in turnovers from 2.8 per game last season to 4.8 this season. The Nuggets won both games against the Bulls last season, including a 90-89 victory at the United Center.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Denver by 1.5; O/U 203.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Denver -5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Denver -3.97
___________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DENVER is 44-74 ATS (-37.4 Units) in road games versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 95.7, OPPONENT 107.0 - (Rating = 5*)
--DENVER is 39-69 ATS (-36.9 Units) in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 92.7, OPPONENT 103.6 - (Rating = 5*)
--DENVER is 39-62 ATS (-29.2 Units) in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 92.6, OPPONENT 103.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 14-38 ATS (-27.8 Units) in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 103.2, OPPONENT 113.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 13-31 ATS (-21.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 107.9, OPPONENT 105.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 34-19 OVER (+13.1 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 99.3, OPPONENT 105.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--CHICAGO is 24-10 OVER (+13.0 Units) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 101.2, OPPONENT 107.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--CHICAGO is 27-13 UNDER (+12.7 Units) after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 97.0, OPPONENT 101.1 - (Rating = 1*)
--DENVER is 35-18 UNDER (+15.2 Units) as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 99.5, OPPONENT 102.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 30-18 UNDER (+10.2 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 104.3, OPPONENT 101.6 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 47-21 against the 1rst half line (+23.8 Units) in home games versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 48.4, OPPONENT 45.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 17-30 against the 1rst half line (-16.0 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 51.6, OPPONENT 52.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 15-28 against the 1rst half line (-15.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 53.7, OPPONENT 54.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 62-38 UNDER (+20.3 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after 2 straight games giving up 10 or less offensive rebounds since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 45.9, OPPONENT 46.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHICAGO is 22-8 OVER (+13.3 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 50.7, OPPONENT 52.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 33-19 OVER (+12.4 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 49.7, OPPONENT 53.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 65-42 OVER (+18.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 54.4, OPPONENT 56.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 30-17 UNDER (+11.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 51.6, OPPONENT 52.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (CHICAGO) - off a road loss, marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games.
(30-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.6, Opponent 45.4 (Average first half point differential = +3.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (44-19).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (DENVER) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games.
(25-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.1%, +17.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50, Opponent 49.7 (Total first half points scored = 99.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (41-21).
*** ATLANTA @ ORLANDO (NL) ***
--------------------------------------------
The Orlando Magic brushed aside the upstart Atlanta Hawks six months ago. Injuries to a pair of key players might make that task more difficult. The Magic could be without Vince Carter and Jameer Nelson on Monday night when they seek to continue their recent dominance of the visiting Hawks. Orlando swept Atlanta in the second round of last season’s playoffs, winning the four games by an average of 25.3 points. Including that sweep, the Magic have won 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series overall and five in a row at home over the Hawks.
Injuries might help end that streak. Carter, who averaged 18.3 points and shot 51.0 percent against Atlanta in the playoffs, exited Saturday’s 91-88 win at Charlotte in the final minutes after suffering a strained right hip flexor when he slipped on a wet spot and fell hard on the court. Coach Stan Van Gundy was upset about the injury, which left Carter’s status uncertain. “It was a needless injury and that’s what (ticks) me off,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said. “He was pretty hurt and wasn’t coming back into that game.”
Van Gundy also has cause to be concerned with Nelson’s health. The point guard sat out Saturday’s victory with a left ankle injury suffered the previous night in a 105-90 win over New Jersey. “It’s getting better and I’m just trying to get as much treatment as I can before (Monday) and see how it feels then,” said Nelson, who averaged 17.3 points and 6.0 assists in the postseason sweep of the Hawks. “There is no timetable.”
Continued strong production from Dwight Howard could soften the blow of the potential absences. The four-time All-Star center leads the Magic with averages of 22.4 points per game, 11.4 rebounds and 3.0 blocks. He posted similar numbers - 21.0 points, 13.3 boards and 2.8 blocks - against Atlanta in the playoffs. Atlanta hasn’t won in Orlando since Oct. 29, 2008. The Hawks are also looking to open 5-0 on the road for the first time since 1967, when the franchise was located in St. Louis.
They lost some momentum Sunday, falling 118-114 at home to Phoenix to end their season-opening winning streak at six. “We gotta refocus. We gotta go down there and be men on a mission,” Coach Larry Drew said. “We let this one get away at home (Sunday). We’re playing against a team that has pretty much had their way with us in the last few games. It’s time for us to stand up and be counted. We gotta go down there to see what we’re made of.”
Swingman Joe Johnson and center Al Horford scored season highs in the loss to the Suns. Johnson had 34 points while Horford added 30, shot 13 for 16 and hauled in 10 rebounds. Johnson and Horford struggled against the Magic last season, averaging 14.5 points and 10.5, respectively, in eight meetings. Johnson shot just 29.8 percent in the playoff series, including 3 for 17 from 3-point range.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Orlando by 8; O/U 203.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Orlando -11.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Orlando -7.68
__________________________________________
NOTE: There are no Potential Stat/Systems Sports Power Trends (due to NL) based on estimated statistics with records of significance that apply to this game.
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (ORLANDO) - off a road win, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season.
(28-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.7%, +18.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50.6, Opponent 48 (Average first half point differential = +2.6)
The situation's record this season is: (5-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (59-45).
________________________________________
NBA betting is becoming more popular each year. This is known as one of the sports where a smart bettor who practiced proper money management can make some really huge profits. Once a bettor begins to study and understand NBA Odds, he or she can gain a better understanding of how the bookies set their numbers. The bookies set a lot of these NBA Odds with the public in mind. They know the public is going to bet the Lakers and Bulls (and other public teams) every week so there are some great situations to get good numbers by going against teams like that.
It is always best to shop around when looking for the best NBA Odds. Many different books release different numbers and NBA Odds always tend to differ at each sportsbook. If you are truly interested in finding the best NBA Odds, it is always best to have funded accounts at - at least five sportsbooks.
_____________________________________________
*** DENVER @ CHICAGO (-2.5, O/U 205.5) ***
-------------------------------------------------------
Injuries have forced the Denver Nuggets to use a smaller lineup in the first weeks of the season. After struggling to adjust, they seem to have found a rhythm in the last two games. The Nuggets will try to win their third straight Monday night when they visit the Chicago Bulls. Already without Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen who are both recovering from offseason knee surgeries, Denver has played its last three games without Nene due to a groin injury. It’s not certain if he’ll be available Monday.
After a 102-101 loss to Dallas on Wednesday, the Nuggets appear to have figured out how to take advantage of their smaller, quicker lineup. They shot a season-high 51.8 percent in a 111-104 win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday - their highest-scoring game of the season. Then on Saturday against Dallas, they hit 13 of 21 3-point attempts in a 103-92 victory, forcing 21 turnovers. Denver’s tallest starter was 6-foot-9 Shelden Williams.
One night after scoring a season-high 30 points, Carmelo Anthony had 27 on Saturday, going 4 of 4 beyond the arc. He hit three 3-pointers in the final 3:47. “They’re a unique team with their shot-making ability,” Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle said. “They can rise up on their 3-point shooting. It was a big turnaround from the other game.” Denver ranked 10th in the NBA last season with 46.8 percent shooting. However, it was off to a slow start this season, shooting 43.8 percent over its first four games.
The Nuggets’ quick lineup could pose trouble for Chicago which has lost its last two. The Bulls hired former Boston assistant Tom Thibodeau as their head coach in hopes of improving their defense, but they’ve allowed 105.0 points per game after yielding 99.1 points last season. After New York hit 16 3-pointers in a 120-112 victory at the United Center on Thursday, the Bulls allowed the Celtics to shoot 51.2 percent in their 110-105 overtime win on Friday. Chicago was outscored 30-15 in the second quarter.
“We’ve got to keep working on that,” Thibodeau told the Bulls’ official website. “I think they went 16-2 to start the second quarter, so you know that’s something we need to address and correct.” Joakim Noah had a career-high 26 points and 12 rebounds for his fifth straight double-double, but he had a late turnover when he tried to bring the ball up court with Chicago trailing 108-105 with 14.9 seconds left.
“I can’t lose the ball in that situation,” Noah said. “I think we’re not there yet, but we’re pretty close. We’re only going to get better, and when we do, it’s going to get real ugly for everybody who’s talking real crazy. All the trash that people are talking right now is going to come back and haunt them. Because when it counts, we’ll be ready.”
The Bulls, who erased a 16-point deficit to force overtime, had 20 turnovers for a second straight game. Derrick Rose who finished with 18 points, had six of them. Although he’s averaging a career-best 9.8 assists, Rose has also seen an increase in turnovers from 2.8 per game last season to 4.8 this season. The Nuggets won both games against the Bulls last season, including a 90-89 victory at the United Center.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Denver by 1.5; O/U 203.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Denver -5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Denver -3.97
___________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DENVER is 44-74 ATS (-37.4 Units) in road games versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 95.7, OPPONENT 107.0 - (Rating = 5*)
--DENVER is 39-69 ATS (-36.9 Units) in road games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 92.7, OPPONENT 103.6 - (Rating = 5*)
--DENVER is 39-62 ATS (-29.2 Units) in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 92.6, OPPONENT 103.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 14-38 ATS (-27.8 Units) in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 103.2, OPPONENT 113.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 13-31 ATS (-21.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 107.9, OPPONENT 105.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 34-19 OVER (+13.1 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 99.3, OPPONENT 105.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--CHICAGO is 24-10 OVER (+13.0 Units) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 101.2, OPPONENT 107.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--CHICAGO is 27-13 UNDER (+12.7 Units) after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 97.0, OPPONENT 101.1 - (Rating = 1*)
--DENVER is 35-18 UNDER (+15.2 Units) as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 99.5, OPPONENT 102.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 30-18 UNDER (+10.2 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 104.3, OPPONENT 101.6 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 47-21 against the 1rst half line (+23.8 Units) in home games versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 48.4, OPPONENT 45.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 17-30 against the 1rst half line (-16.0 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 51.6, OPPONENT 52.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 15-28 against the 1rst half line (-15.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 53.7, OPPONENT 54.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 62-38 UNDER (+20.3 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after 2 straight games giving up 10 or less offensive rebounds since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 45.9, OPPONENT 46.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHICAGO is 22-8 OVER (+13.3 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 50.7, OPPONENT 52.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 33-19 OVER (+12.4 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 49.7, OPPONENT 53.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 65-42 OVER (+18.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 54.4, OPPONENT 56.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 30-17 UNDER (+11.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 51.6, OPPONENT 52.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (CHICAGO) - off a road loss, marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games.
(30-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.6, Opponent 45.4 (Average first half point differential = +3.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (44-19).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 (DENVER) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games.
(25-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.1%, +17.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 103.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50, Opponent 49.7 (Total first half points scored = 99.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (41-21).
STATSYSTEMS REPORT 11/8 cont.
*** PHOENIX @ MEMPHIS (-2.5, O/U 212.5) ***
--------------------------------------------------------
The Memphis Grizzlies are happy to be home, but they are sure to be challenged this week. They already know how tough the Phoenix Suns can be. The Grizzlies open a grueling three-game homestand Monday night when they meet the Suns for the second time in four days. Memphis salvaged the finale of a four-game road trip with a 100-91 win over Sacramento on Saturday. Rudy Gay continued his surge with 32 points, while Zach Randolph added 20 and 11 rebounds.
The Grizzlies’ opponents on this homestand - Phoenix, Dallas and Boston - were all in the playoffs last season. The Suns and Grizzlies played one of the most entertaining contests of this early season Friday, won 123-118 by Phoenix in double overtime. That game featured a bizarre end to regulation as the Suns’ Jason Richardson scored five points in the final 1.1 seconds of the fourth quarter. Richardson finished with 38 points while Steve Nash had 25 and nine assists.
The Grizzlies, who led by as many as 18 points in the first half, wasted 26 points apiece from Gay and Marc Gasol. The loss created a sense of urgency Saturday, and Memphis responded with a strong effort. “That game (against Phoenix) we should have had,” said Gay, who averaged 30.2 points on the trip. “(Saturday), we wanted to make sure we came out to assert ourselves and make sure the outcome goes our way.”
Randolph and Gasol are back after combining to miss five games due to injuries. Memphis feels it is finally getting accustomed to playing with its top post players. “We are full throttle right about now,” Mayo said. “Earlier in the season, big fella (Gasol) and Zach were hurt and we weren’t at full throttle. Now they are getting their legs back, they are getting into game shape, and I look for us to make a nice run.”
Phoenix believes it is adjusting well to life without Amar’e Stoudemire who joined New York in the offseason. The Suns, who led the league in scoring the previous two seasons, have put together their two highest point outputs of 2010-11 in consecutive wins. Richardson scored 21 points and Nash added 19 with a season-high 15 assists in Sunday’s 118-114 victory at Atlanta. “It’s going to take us a month, two months, to get to the point where we really know who we are,” Nash said."
The Suns continue to use a small lineup with veteran newcomer Hedo Turkoglu playing power forward for the first time in his career. The Grizzlies again plan to try to exploit the Suns’ interior defense. “The game plan all night was to attack the rim through the post ups or through the drive and I thought we did that for the most part,” Memphis assistant David Joerger said about Friday’s meeting.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Memphis by 1; O/U 214.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Phoenix -2.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Phoenix -1.26
___________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--MEMPHIS is 13-36 ATS (-26.6 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 95.1, OPPONENT 103.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--MEMPHIS is 9-26 ATS (-19.5 Units) in home games after playing 3 consecutive games as a road underdog since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 99.9, OPPONENT 104.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--PHOENIX is 45-72 ATS (-34.3 Units) in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game since 1996.
The average score was PHOENIX 103.1, OPPONENT 107.3 - (Rating = 5*)
--PHOENIX is 36-16 ATS (+18.4 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 112.1, OPPONENT 103.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.5, OPPONENT 106.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 112.2, OPPONENT 104.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--PHOENIX is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in road games vs. horrible rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 5+/game since 1996.
The average score was PHOENIX 105.6, OPPONENT 104.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 115.1, OPPONENT 106.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 113.3, OPPONENT 104.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--PHOENIX is 60-42 ATS (+13.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.7, OPPONENT 105.1 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--MEMPHIS is 33-18 OVER (+13.2 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 103.6, OPPONENT 105.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MEMPHIS is 29-15 OVER (+12.6 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 103.8, OPPONENT 107.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 35-18 OVER (+15.3 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 110.0, OPPONENT 109.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 22-8 OVER (+13.2 Units) after 2 straight games where they made 9 or more 3 point shots over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.5, OPPONENT 107.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--MEMPHIS is 10-25 against the 1rst half line (-17.5 Units) in home games after playing 3 consecutive games as a road underdog since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 48.5, OPPONENT 52.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MEMPHIS is 48-30 against the 1rst half line (+14.9 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 50.0, OPPONENT 50.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MEMPHIS is 23-9 against the 1rst half line (+13.1 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 53.9, OPPONENT 54.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--MEMPHIS is 15-4 against the 1rst half line (+10.6 Units) in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 55.9, OPPONENT 52.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--MEMPHIS is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 57.6, OPPONENT 47.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--PHOENIX is 42-73 against the 1rst half line (-38.4 Units) in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game since 1996.
The average score was PHOENIX 51.3, OPPONENT 54.2 - (Rating = 5*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--MEMPHIS is 30-15 OVER (+13.5 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 53.5, OPPONENT 53.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 32-18 UNDER (+12.3 Units) the 1rst half total after a combined score of 215 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 56.3, OPPONENT 52.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--PHOENIX is 19-7 UNDER (+11.3 Units) the 1rst half total as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 52.0, OPPONENT 52.6 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (PHOENIX) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games.
(26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 57.4, Opponent 55.2 (Average first half point differential = +2.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-6).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (28-10).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (PHOENIX) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games.
(50-19 since 1996.) (72.5%, +29.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 105
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51, Opponent 50.1 (Total first half points scored = 101.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-9).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (33-15).
___________________________________________
*** BOSTON @ DALLAS (-3.5, O/U 190.5) ***
-----------------------------------------------------
There’s no question that the Boston Celtics are legitimate contenders for the NBA title. The Dallas Mavericks know they have work to do to earn such consideration. The Celtics look for their sixth straight win Monday night and fourth in a row at Dallas as they try to start 7-1 or better for the fourth straight season. Since Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen joined Boston in 2007, the Celtics have gotten off to fast starts. They opened 8-0 three seasons ago when they won the title and began 8-1 each of the last two seasons.
“The Celtics have been together for awhile,” Dallas center Tyson Chandler said. “They’ve played at the highest level and that’s what we’re trying to accomplish. We definitely need to come in focused for that game and treat it as big as it’s gonna be.” The addition of Garnett and Allen has certainly changed the Celtics’ fortunes at Dallas. Boston had dropped seven straight visits before winning the last three, with Allen averaging 20.7 points in those games.
Dallas star Dirk Nowitzki has averaged 29.0 points and 10.7 rebounds in the defeats. He shot 47.8 percent in the three games, but his teammates combined to shoot 39.3 percent. Jason Terry and Jason Kidd played in two of those meetings. Terry shot 37.5 percent in those games while Kidd connected at 31.3 percent.
The Celtics used a similar approach to stop a team with one superstar scorer in Sunday’s 92-83 win at Oklahoma City. Kevin Durant scored a game-high 34 points, but Boston limited the rest of the Thunder to 39.6 percent shooting. Boston also got a huge lift from its bench, which combined for 33 points and helped build a 17-point advantage in the fourth quarter after a 22-point lead was cut to six. “That whole group, they were absolutely terrific. They won the game for us,” coach Doc Rivers said. “They went from a six- to a 17 point lead.”
Nate Robinson and Turkish rookie Semih Erden each scored nine points to lead the reserves. “We’ve just got to continue to give our starters a lift off the bench and continue to do what we’ve been doing, which is playing together and having fun,” Robinson said. Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jermaine O’Neal all logged 32 minutes or fewer, which could keep Boston fresh for this back-to-back set. Center Shaquille O’Neal missed his fourth straight game with a sore right knee, but could return.
Dallas began a stretch of 15 home games over a 22-game span with Saturday’s 103-92 home loss to Denver. Terry scored 26 points and Nowitzki added 23 for the Mavs, who had a season-low 12 assists. “We’ve got a tough game coming up on Monday against Boston,” forward Shawn Marion said. “They’re playing well, too. I know it’s early, but we’ve got to control certain things on the floor. We’ve got to help each other and get it done.”
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Dallas by 2; O/U 190.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Dallas -3.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Dallas -0.39
_________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 6-22 ATS (-18.3 Units) in home games after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 99.9, OPPONENT 98.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in home games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 100.9, OPPONENT 100.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--DALLAS is 3-14 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 101.4, OPPONENT 100.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 97.0, OPPONENT 95.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 33-14 ATS (+17.5 Units) in road games when playing their 5th game in 7 days since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 98.0, OPPONENT 97.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 96.3, OPPONENT 91.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 99-65 OVER (+27.5 Units) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 100.2, OPPONENT 102.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 53-29 OVER (+21.2 Units) in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 101.7, OPPONENT 101.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 36-17 OVER (+17.4 Units) after 4 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 100.8, OPPONENT 96.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 33-11 UNDER (+20.8 Units) after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 97.3, OPPONENT 94.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 26-8 UNDER (+17.4 Units) in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 95.7, OPPONENT 90.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 12-0 UNDER (+12.0 Units) after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 93.4, OPPONENT 87.7 - (Rating = 5*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 30-52 against the 1rst half line (-27.3 Units) after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 50.9, OPPONENT 50.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 25-40 against the 1rst half line (-19.0 Units) after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 50.2, OPPONENT 50.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 21-34 against the 1rst half line (-16.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 50.1, OPPONENT 50.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 42-21 against the 1rst half line (+18.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 49.0, OPPONENT 45.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 55-36 OVER (+15.4 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 53.2, OPPONENT 50.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--DALLAS is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after a game with 15 or less assists over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 60.1, OPPONENT 51.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 34-13 UNDER (+19.7 Units) the 1rst half total after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 49.2, OPPONENT 45.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 81-56 UNDER (+19.4 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 49.2, OPPONENT 45.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 27-9 UNDER (+17.2 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 48.0, OPPONENT 45.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 30-14 OVER (+14.5 Units) the 1rst half total after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 51.4, OPPONENT 48.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (DALLAS) - poor foul drawing team - attempting <=24 free throws/game, excellent team - shooting >=46% with a defense of <=43% on the season.
(63-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.5%, +31.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 95.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 46.9, Opponent 44.7 (Total first half points scored = 91.7)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-11).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (211-171).
*** PHOENIX @ MEMPHIS (-2.5, O/U 212.5) ***
--------------------------------------------------------
The Memphis Grizzlies are happy to be home, but they are sure to be challenged this week. They already know how tough the Phoenix Suns can be. The Grizzlies open a grueling three-game homestand Monday night when they meet the Suns for the second time in four days. Memphis salvaged the finale of a four-game road trip with a 100-91 win over Sacramento on Saturday. Rudy Gay continued his surge with 32 points, while Zach Randolph added 20 and 11 rebounds.
The Grizzlies’ opponents on this homestand - Phoenix, Dallas and Boston - were all in the playoffs last season. The Suns and Grizzlies played one of the most entertaining contests of this early season Friday, won 123-118 by Phoenix in double overtime. That game featured a bizarre end to regulation as the Suns’ Jason Richardson scored five points in the final 1.1 seconds of the fourth quarter. Richardson finished with 38 points while Steve Nash had 25 and nine assists.
The Grizzlies, who led by as many as 18 points in the first half, wasted 26 points apiece from Gay and Marc Gasol. The loss created a sense of urgency Saturday, and Memphis responded with a strong effort. “That game (against Phoenix) we should have had,” said Gay, who averaged 30.2 points on the trip. “(Saturday), we wanted to make sure we came out to assert ourselves and make sure the outcome goes our way.”
Randolph and Gasol are back after combining to miss five games due to injuries. Memphis feels it is finally getting accustomed to playing with its top post players. “We are full throttle right about now,” Mayo said. “Earlier in the season, big fella (Gasol) and Zach were hurt and we weren’t at full throttle. Now they are getting their legs back, they are getting into game shape, and I look for us to make a nice run.”
Phoenix believes it is adjusting well to life without Amar’e Stoudemire who joined New York in the offseason. The Suns, who led the league in scoring the previous two seasons, have put together their two highest point outputs of 2010-11 in consecutive wins. Richardson scored 21 points and Nash added 19 with a season-high 15 assists in Sunday’s 118-114 victory at Atlanta. “It’s going to take us a month, two months, to get to the point where we really know who we are,” Nash said."
The Suns continue to use a small lineup with veteran newcomer Hedo Turkoglu playing power forward for the first time in his career. The Grizzlies again plan to try to exploit the Suns’ interior defense. “The game plan all night was to attack the rim through the post ups or through the drive and I thought we did that for the most part,” Memphis assistant David Joerger said about Friday’s meeting.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Memphis by 1; O/U 214.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Phoenix -2.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Phoenix -1.26
___________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--MEMPHIS is 13-36 ATS (-26.6 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 95.1, OPPONENT 103.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--MEMPHIS is 9-26 ATS (-19.5 Units) in home games after playing 3 consecutive games as a road underdog since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 99.9, OPPONENT 104.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--PHOENIX is 45-72 ATS (-34.3 Units) in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game since 1996.
The average score was PHOENIX 103.1, OPPONENT 107.3 - (Rating = 5*)
--PHOENIX is 36-16 ATS (+18.4 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 112.1, OPPONENT 103.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.5, OPPONENT 106.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 112.2, OPPONENT 104.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--PHOENIX is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in road games vs. horrible rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 5+/game since 1996.
The average score was PHOENIX 105.6, OPPONENT 104.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 115.1, OPPONENT 106.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 113.3, OPPONENT 104.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--PHOENIX is 60-42 ATS (+13.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.7, OPPONENT 105.1 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--MEMPHIS is 33-18 OVER (+13.2 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 103.6, OPPONENT 105.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MEMPHIS is 29-15 OVER (+12.6 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 103.8, OPPONENT 107.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 35-18 OVER (+15.3 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 110.0, OPPONENT 109.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 22-8 OVER (+13.2 Units) after 2 straight games where they made 9 or more 3 point shots over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.5, OPPONENT 107.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--MEMPHIS is 10-25 against the 1rst half line (-17.5 Units) in home games after playing 3 consecutive games as a road underdog since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 48.5, OPPONENT 52.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MEMPHIS is 48-30 against the 1rst half line (+14.9 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 50.0, OPPONENT 50.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MEMPHIS is 23-9 against the 1rst half line (+13.1 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 53.9, OPPONENT 54.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--MEMPHIS is 15-4 against the 1rst half line (+10.6 Units) in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 55.9, OPPONENT 52.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--MEMPHIS is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 57.6, OPPONENT 47.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--PHOENIX is 42-73 against the 1rst half line (-38.4 Units) in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game since 1996.
The average score was PHOENIX 51.3, OPPONENT 54.2 - (Rating = 5*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--MEMPHIS is 30-15 OVER (+13.5 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 53.5, OPPONENT 53.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 32-18 UNDER (+12.3 Units) the 1rst half total after a combined score of 215 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 56.3, OPPONENT 52.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--PHOENIX is 19-7 UNDER (+11.3 Units) the 1rst half total as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 52.0, OPPONENT 52.6 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (PHOENIX) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games.
(26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 57.4, Opponent 55.2 (Average first half point differential = +2.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-6).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (28-10).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (PHOENIX) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games.
(50-19 since 1996.) (72.5%, +29.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 105
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51, Opponent 50.1 (Total first half points scored = 101.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-9).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (33-15).
___________________________________________
*** BOSTON @ DALLAS (-3.5, O/U 190.5) ***
-----------------------------------------------------
There’s no question that the Boston Celtics are legitimate contenders for the NBA title. The Dallas Mavericks know they have work to do to earn such consideration. The Celtics look for their sixth straight win Monday night and fourth in a row at Dallas as they try to start 7-1 or better for the fourth straight season. Since Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen joined Boston in 2007, the Celtics have gotten off to fast starts. They opened 8-0 three seasons ago when they won the title and began 8-1 each of the last two seasons.
“The Celtics have been together for awhile,” Dallas center Tyson Chandler said. “They’ve played at the highest level and that’s what we’re trying to accomplish. We definitely need to come in focused for that game and treat it as big as it’s gonna be.” The addition of Garnett and Allen has certainly changed the Celtics’ fortunes at Dallas. Boston had dropped seven straight visits before winning the last three, with Allen averaging 20.7 points in those games.
Dallas star Dirk Nowitzki has averaged 29.0 points and 10.7 rebounds in the defeats. He shot 47.8 percent in the three games, but his teammates combined to shoot 39.3 percent. Jason Terry and Jason Kidd played in two of those meetings. Terry shot 37.5 percent in those games while Kidd connected at 31.3 percent.
The Celtics used a similar approach to stop a team with one superstar scorer in Sunday’s 92-83 win at Oklahoma City. Kevin Durant scored a game-high 34 points, but Boston limited the rest of the Thunder to 39.6 percent shooting. Boston also got a huge lift from its bench, which combined for 33 points and helped build a 17-point advantage in the fourth quarter after a 22-point lead was cut to six. “That whole group, they were absolutely terrific. They won the game for us,” coach Doc Rivers said. “They went from a six- to a 17 point lead.”
Nate Robinson and Turkish rookie Semih Erden each scored nine points to lead the reserves. “We’ve just got to continue to give our starters a lift off the bench and continue to do what we’ve been doing, which is playing together and having fun,” Robinson said. Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jermaine O’Neal all logged 32 minutes or fewer, which could keep Boston fresh for this back-to-back set. Center Shaquille O’Neal missed his fourth straight game with a sore right knee, but could return.
Dallas began a stretch of 15 home games over a 22-game span with Saturday’s 103-92 home loss to Denver. Terry scored 26 points and Nowitzki added 23 for the Mavs, who had a season-low 12 assists. “We’ve got a tough game coming up on Monday against Boston,” forward Shawn Marion said. “They’re playing well, too. I know it’s early, but we’ve got to control certain things on the floor. We’ve got to help each other and get it done.”
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Dallas by 2; O/U 190.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Dallas -3.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Dallas -0.39
_________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 6-22 ATS (-18.3 Units) in home games after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 99.9, OPPONENT 98.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in home games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 100.9, OPPONENT 100.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--DALLAS is 3-14 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 101.4, OPPONENT 100.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 97.0, OPPONENT 95.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 33-14 ATS (+17.5 Units) in road games when playing their 5th game in 7 days since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 98.0, OPPONENT 97.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 96.3, OPPONENT 91.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 99-65 OVER (+27.5 Units) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 100.2, OPPONENT 102.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 53-29 OVER (+21.2 Units) in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 101.7, OPPONENT 101.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 36-17 OVER (+17.4 Units) after 4 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 100.8, OPPONENT 96.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 33-11 UNDER (+20.8 Units) after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 97.3, OPPONENT 94.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 26-8 UNDER (+17.4 Units) in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 95.7, OPPONENT 90.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 12-0 UNDER (+12.0 Units) after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 93.4, OPPONENT 87.7 - (Rating = 5*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 30-52 against the 1rst half line (-27.3 Units) after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 50.9, OPPONENT 50.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 25-40 against the 1rst half line (-19.0 Units) after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 50.2, OPPONENT 50.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--DALLAS is 21-34 against the 1rst half line (-16.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 50.1, OPPONENT 50.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 42-21 against the 1rst half line (+18.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 49.0, OPPONENT 45.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--DALLAS is 55-36 OVER (+15.4 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 53.2, OPPONENT 50.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--DALLAS is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after a game with 15 or less assists over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 60.1, OPPONENT 51.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 34-13 UNDER (+19.7 Units) the 1rst half total after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 49.2, OPPONENT 45.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 81-56 UNDER (+19.4 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 49.2, OPPONENT 45.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 27-9 UNDER (+17.2 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 48.0, OPPONENT 45.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 30-14 OVER (+14.5 Units) the 1rst half total after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 51.4, OPPONENT 48.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (DALLAS) - poor foul drawing team - attempting <=24 free throws/game, excellent team - shooting >=46% with a defense of <=43% on the season.
(63-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.5%, +31.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 95.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 46.9, Opponent 44.7 (Total first half points scored = 91.7)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-11).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (211-171).
