Stu's 100 Dime Guaranteed Parlay of the Year (SF1)
Green Bay (51) at New Orleans (-1) - 8:35 EST
There will be a boat load of points scored tonight at the Superdome, and New Orleans will score the majority of them as they will produce this win and cover in a game that will sail over the posted price. New Orleans needs to keep pace with its three division rivals – Carolina, Tampa Bay and Atlanta – as they’re in football’s most competitive division outside of the Big XII South. New Orleans hasn’t played a home game in six weeks and they will be ready to take it to this Green Bay. They’ve covered four of their last five at home as truly they play their best football in front of their rowdy fans. At just 2-4 SU in conference play, New Orleans can’t afford any more slip-ups in conference games. Meanwhile, Green Bay, playing in a weaker division, is in a battle with Minnesota and Chicago for the division crown, is not in such a must-win situation as its head-to-head battles with those opponents are what’s really key for their season. Hence, next month’s trip to Soldier Field is what looms large for Green Bay. The public is all over GB in this one, but until taking care of business against Chicago last week, this team had been on a 2-5 straight-up freefall.
Now I do think GB will have some offensive success against New Orleans, especially against the home team’s depleted secondary. QB Aaron Rodgers has been outstanding in the red zone, has a talented trio of receivers and now has a suddenly awakened RB in Ryan Grant to hand off to. He’s averaged better than 100 yards the last four contests, but I don’t think he’ll reach the century mark against a New Orleans team that was stout against Larry Johnson and KC last week. Still, Rodgers should find good success throwing to Donald Driver, Greg Jennings & Co. against this N.O. secondary that is battered and bruised. Still, the passing star in this one will be Drew Brees. Yes, the Green Bay secondary has been solid this year and yes they have taken back six picks for scores. But outside of facing Indy’s Peyton Manning at Lambeau, they haven’t faced the kind of stellar quarterback that they will see in Brees tonight. Because of his arm and ability, New Orleans leads the league in total offense and passing offense. He’s got playmakers all around and even though Reggie Bush will be a game-time decision, Pierre Thomas has picked up the slack (88 yards rushing, 56 yards receiving last week) in a backfield that has seen its share of injuries. Green Bay has not been brick wall-like against the run (ranked just 27th) this year and now run-stopper LB Nick Barnett has been lost to a season-ending knee injury. Last week, Brees was not sacked and has been dropped just eight times all year while GB has mustered just a modest 17 sacks on the season.
New Orleans gained a bit of confidence with its 10-point win at KC last week. They gave one away at home on Monday night earlier in the year against Minnesota and they have learned their lesson. This is do-or-die time for Brees and his mates. They must hold serve at home and Brees, who’s having an MVP-like season, will not let his teammates down. Points will be a plenty in this one as they have been on all Monday night games this year (10-2 over run). Green Bay has sailed over 20-6-1- overall, 8-1-1 on the road and 9-2 after a scoreboard win. New Orleans is on over runs of 11-3-1 overall, 8-1-1 at home and 9-1 after a scoreboard run. Plenty galore and plenty of Drew Brees tonight as he comes large and leads New Orleans to this win and cover that goes over the posted price.
NEW ORLEANS (-1) 250 Dimes
OVER (51) 100 Dimes
NEW ORLEANS/OVER 100 Dimes
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