BIG AL
4* CHARGERS
Analysis: At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Chargers/Broncos to go 'under' the total, as it falls into 3 Totals systems of mine which have records of 77-37, 137-73 and 114-63 since 1980. The Broncos have gone 'over' the total in five of their last six games, but all of those lines ranged from 41 to 44 points. Here, the total opened at 48, moved to 50.5, and has ticked down to 50. I feel it's a bit inflated due to Denver's eruption last week (a 49-29 win over Kansas City) but that was the 1st time in five games that the Broncos scored more than 20 points (they averaged 16 ppg in the four previous games). Further, both teams have key injured players at the wideout/tight end positions. San Diego will be without Antonio Gates and Legedu Naanee, though look to get Malcolm Floyd on the field after he sustained a hamstring injury. However, RB Ryan Mathews won't suit up tonight, so Michael Tolbert will carry the load. The Broncos also have a banged-up wideout in Eddie Royal, who is nursing a hamstring injury, though he's listed as probable to play. Finally, San Diego comes into tonight's game off its bye week, and NFL teams tend to go 'under' the total in the regular season off a week of rest, and especially in division contests (170-125 'under'). Look for a relatively low-scoring game tonight.
4* CHARGERS
Analysis: At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Chargers/Broncos to go 'under' the total, as it falls into 3 Totals systems of mine which have records of 77-37, 137-73 and 114-63 since 1980. The Broncos have gone 'over' the total in five of their last six games, but all of those lines ranged from 41 to 44 points. Here, the total opened at 48, moved to 50.5, and has ticked down to 50. I feel it's a bit inflated due to Denver's eruption last week (a 49-29 win over Kansas City) but that was the 1st time in five games that the Broncos scored more than 20 points (they averaged 16 ppg in the four previous games). Further, both teams have key injured players at the wideout/tight end positions. San Diego will be without Antonio Gates and Legedu Naanee, though look to get Malcolm Floyd on the field after he sustained a hamstring injury. However, RB Ryan Mathews won't suit up tonight, so Michael Tolbert will carry the load. The Broncos also have a banged-up wideout in Eddie Royal, who is nursing a hamstring injury, though he's listed as probable to play. Finally, San Diego comes into tonight's game off its bye week, and NFL teams tend to go 'under' the total in the regular season off a week of rest, and especially in division contests (170-125 'under'). Look for a relatively low-scoring game tonight.
KELSO
10 UNIT* NFL* SD CHARGERS -9
10 UNIT* NFL* SD CHARGERS UNDER 50
5 UNIT* NFL* 2 TEAM PARLAY* SD CHARGERS & GAME Under 50
15 UNIT* CBB* PACIFIC TIGERS -7
10 UNIT* CBB* WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS +2.5
5 UNIT* CBB* UTAH UTES +6
3 UNIT* CBB* PEPPERDINE WAVES +6 (ACTUALLY +16--BUT RELEASED AS +6)
10 UNIT* NFL* SD CHARGERS -9
10 UNIT* NFL* SD CHARGERS UNDER 50
5 UNIT* NFL* 2 TEAM PARLAY* SD CHARGERS & GAME Under 50
15 UNIT* CBB* PACIFIC TIGERS -7
10 UNIT* CBB* WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS +2.5
5 UNIT* CBB* UTAH UTES +6
3 UNIT* CBB* PEPPERDINE WAVES +6 (ACTUALLY +16--BUT RELEASED AS +6)
jeff benton
MONDAY'S ACTION
40 Dime NFL selection on the Chargers minus the points at home against Denver. San Diego is laying between 9 and 9½ points in this contest, with the number trending down from high of 10 earlier in the week. Be sure to shop around and get the best value possible, and if you start to see this line climb to 10 in some spots, you must get your wager in to ensure you do no worse than 9½.
CHARGERS
Last Oct. 19, on a Monday night, the Broncos went to San Diego with a 5-0 SU and ATS record and – as a 3½-point underdog – upset the Chargers 34-23, then embarked on their bye week. Since returning from that bye, Denver has played 19 games and won exactly five times. During this stretch, the Broncos are also just 6-13 ATS, including a 32-3 home loss to the Chargers as a 6½-point underdog.
In fact, the Chargers are 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this rivalry, and all six wins were absolute blowouts: 35-27, 48-20, 41-3, 23-3, 52-21 and 32-3. Going back to the start of the 2004 series, the Broncos have just two spread-covers in 12 clashes with the Bolts.
True, Denver is coming off an impressive 49-29 whipping of the Chiefs as a one-point home underdog, snapping an 0-4 SU and ATS slump. However, since beating San Diego last year to run their record to 5-0, the Broncos have won and covered in consecutive games just once (and they had 10 days off between those two particular games).
Meanwhile, the Chargers come out of their bye week riding their first two-game winning streak of the season, beating the Titans 33-25 at home and the Texans 29-23 on the road. At home this year, the Chargers are 3-1 SU and ATS, with the only loss being a 23-20 setback to New England. San Diego committed four turnovers in that one and lost despite outgaining the Patriots 363-179 (Tom Brady had just 159 passing yards).
In fact, even with that loss, the Chargers at home are averaging 33 points and 429 yards per game while giving up 17.8 points and 258.2 yards per game (including just 58.5 rushing ypg). By comparison, look at Denver’s defensive numbers this season (home and road): 28 ppg, 373 total ypg, 143.1 rushing ypg (including 162.7 rushing ypg on the road). And as noted above, the Broncos have been totally unable to stop the Chargers’ offense the last four years, with San Diego scoring 35, 48, 41, 23, 38, 52, 23 and 32 points in the last eight meetings, averaging 36.5 ppg at home.
Then there’s this from the pointspread trend department: Denver is in ATS slumps of 2-8 against AFC teams, 7-18-1 versus AFC West rivals, 2-5 on the road (all as an underdog) and 1-4 following a victory. San Diego is on ATS surges of 20-6 as a home favorite of 3½ to 10 points and 5-0 in November. Also, the favorite is on a 5-1-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Finally, if you’re worried about this being too big of a pointspread for San Diego to cover, don’t be. And here’s why: If you go back to November 2008, the SU winner has covered the spread 34 of Denver’s last 36 contests, including all nine games this season. The SU winner is also 9-0 ATS in San Diego’s games this season and 25-4-1 ATS in its last 30 contests, and the winner has cashed at an 8-0-2 ATS clip in this rivalry the last five years (3-0 ATS when the line is nine points or higher).
Translation: The odds overwhelmingly indicate that the winner of this game will cover the number. And with the way the Broncos’ defense has been shredded this year, I cannot envision Denver winning this game. San Diego comes out of its bye, fixes its special-teams woes and rolls 41-17.
MONDAY'S ACTION
40 Dime NFL selection on the Chargers minus the points at home against Denver. San Diego is laying between 9 and 9½ points in this contest, with the number trending down from high of 10 earlier in the week. Be sure to shop around and get the best value possible, and if you start to see this line climb to 10 in some spots, you must get your wager in to ensure you do no worse than 9½.
CHARGERS
Last Oct. 19, on a Monday night, the Broncos went to San Diego with a 5-0 SU and ATS record and – as a 3½-point underdog – upset the Chargers 34-23, then embarked on their bye week. Since returning from that bye, Denver has played 19 games and won exactly five times. During this stretch, the Broncos are also just 6-13 ATS, including a 32-3 home loss to the Chargers as a 6½-point underdog.
In fact, the Chargers are 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this rivalry, and all six wins were absolute blowouts: 35-27, 48-20, 41-3, 23-3, 52-21 and 32-3. Going back to the start of the 2004 series, the Broncos have just two spread-covers in 12 clashes with the Bolts.
True, Denver is coming off an impressive 49-29 whipping of the Chiefs as a one-point home underdog, snapping an 0-4 SU and ATS slump. However, since beating San Diego last year to run their record to 5-0, the Broncos have won and covered in consecutive games just once (and they had 10 days off between those two particular games).
Meanwhile, the Chargers come out of their bye week riding their first two-game winning streak of the season, beating the Titans 33-25 at home and the Texans 29-23 on the road. At home this year, the Chargers are 3-1 SU and ATS, with the only loss being a 23-20 setback to New England. San Diego committed four turnovers in that one and lost despite outgaining the Patriots 363-179 (Tom Brady had just 159 passing yards).
In fact, even with that loss, the Chargers at home are averaging 33 points and 429 yards per game while giving up 17.8 points and 258.2 yards per game (including just 58.5 rushing ypg). By comparison, look at Denver’s defensive numbers this season (home and road): 28 ppg, 373 total ypg, 143.1 rushing ypg (including 162.7 rushing ypg on the road). And as noted above, the Broncos have been totally unable to stop the Chargers’ offense the last four years, with San Diego scoring 35, 48, 41, 23, 38, 52, 23 and 32 points in the last eight meetings, averaging 36.5 ppg at home.
Then there’s this from the pointspread trend department: Denver is in ATS slumps of 2-8 against AFC teams, 7-18-1 versus AFC West rivals, 2-5 on the road (all as an underdog) and 1-4 following a victory. San Diego is on ATS surges of 20-6 as a home favorite of 3½ to 10 points and 5-0 in November. Also, the favorite is on a 5-1-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Finally, if you’re worried about this being too big of a pointspread for San Diego to cover, don’t be. And here’s why: If you go back to November 2008, the SU winner has covered the spread 34 of Denver’s last 36 contests, including all nine games this season. The SU winner is also 9-0 ATS in San Diego’s games this season and 25-4-1 ATS in its last 30 contests, and the winner has cashed at an 8-0-2 ATS clip in this rivalry the last five years (3-0 ATS when the line is nine points or higher).
Translation: The odds overwhelmingly indicate that the winner of this game will cover the number. And with the way the Broncos’ defense has been shredded this year, I cannot envision Denver winning this game. San Diego comes out of its bye, fixes its special-teams woes and rolls 41-17.
FantasySportsGametime.com
Monday NFL Football
1000* Play San Diego (-8.5) over Denver
Game starts at 8:30 PM EST
San Diego has won and covered the spread in two consecutive games and they have also won and covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 home games when the total posted is 49.5 points or greater. San Diego has won 9 of the last 11 games after covering the spread in two of the last three games and they are averaging over 33 points a game on offense in home games this season.
VegasTout Football for Monday
Play San Diego -8.5 over Denver—THIS IS TOP PLAY
Game starts at 8:30 P.M. EST
Denver is 1-4 SU & ATS over the last five games and they are also 1-3 ATS vs. San Diego over the last four meetings. Denver is 2-9 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points and they are allowing an average of 28 points a game on defense this season.
VegasTout Hoops for Monday
NBA
Play Utah -11 over Sacramento—THIS IS TOP PLAY
9:00 P.M. EST
Utah is 11-2 ATS coming off an upset win as an underdog and they are also 21-8 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days.
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NCAA
Play Wichita State +1.5 over Connecticut
Play Gonzaga +5 over Kansas State
Monday NFL Football
1000* Play San Diego (-8.5) over Denver
Game starts at 8:30 PM EST
San Diego has won and covered the spread in two consecutive games and they have also won and covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 home games when the total posted is 49.5 points or greater. San Diego has won 9 of the last 11 games after covering the spread in two of the last three games and they are averaging over 33 points a game on offense in home games this season.
VegasTout Football for Monday
Play San Diego -8.5 over Denver—THIS IS TOP PLAY
Game starts at 8:30 P.M. EST
Denver is 1-4 SU & ATS over the last five games and they are also 1-3 ATS vs. San Diego over the last four meetings. Denver is 2-9 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points and they are allowing an average of 28 points a game on defense this season.
VegasTout Hoops for Monday
NBA
Play Utah -11 over Sacramento—THIS IS TOP PLAY
9:00 P.M. EST
Utah is 11-2 ATS coming off an upset win as an underdog and they are also 21-8 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days.
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NCAA
Play Wichita State +1.5 over Connecticut
Play Gonzaga +5 over Kansas State
