dave malinsky
NCAAB Top of the Ticket
Pennsylvania Quakers(+23.5) over VILLANOVA WILDCATS
4* #513 PENN over VILLANOVA
Here’s the thing about Big Five basketball--the wider the gap is between the teams, the better we have seen some of the underdogs perform through the years. It makes all the sense in the world. A bad Philly team can make a name for themselves by throwing everything they have at the heavily favored opponent, while any time a team is laying more than 20 points in one of these games it means that they are at playing at an altitude that brings much more intriguing targets ahead. And that is exactly what we have here. First, Penn is not a bad team. The Quakers suffered through an injury-riddled 2008-09 in which five key cogs were unavailable most of the way, but now it becomes a veteran group with returning starters Tyler Bernadini, Zack Rosen and Jack Eggleston, and with SRs Andres Schreiber and Darren Smith are healthy and in the starting lineup again. In reality, consider it to be returning starters at all positions, and Mike Howlett showed in 16 bench minutes at Penn State on Friday night that he is at full health ready to be a major contributor as well. This should be the most improved teams in the Ivy League this winter, and note that the 70-55 non-cover at Penn State on Friday night was not nearly as bad as the score shows the final margin was the biggest of the game, and Penn was hampered by early foul trouble for Bernadini (only eight minutes in the first half), and an awful 5-23 from 3-point range. But that all works in our favor in terms of setting this line value up, while also giving them a road game under their belts vs. a quality opponent. This is not really a road game, of course, with a short late afternoon bus ride to the Pavillion, and plenty of Penn fans in attendance. But they are not running into a buzz saw of a crowd here anyway, nor an intense Villanova team. Off of LYs run to the Final Four there is absolutely no sense of urgency for Jay Wright and his team. They know that they are capable of making a similar run this season, and as such games like this are merely a way to tune up before the long and grinding Big East road ahead, and then March dance steps. But creating a unique distraction tonight is the fact that the players will take the court with their bags already packed for their upcoming trip to San Juan, where they open the Puerto Rico Tip-Off on Thursday afternoon vs. George Mason. This can be a special team later, but not yet, with the loss of Dante Cunningham and Dwayne Anderson taking away some significant glue players from last spring’s chemistry-laden surge, and SR starter Reggie Redding is also suspended. There are enough pieces on hand here for a comfortable win, but neither the cohesion nor the sense of purpose to get near this high spread.
