Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots - Monday October 20, 2008 8:35 pm
Pick: 3 units TOTAL: Under 48.5 (-110)
With it being tough to pick a victorious side in this match-up, we look to the total, and we already see the typical MNF Over betting pattern of the "public" at work, with the totals line rising and now at 48.5, a half point over the key totals # of 48. While we recognize that Denver (and their "hot" QB Jay Cutler) has posted some pretty impressive offensive #s earlier in the season, while their defense has been pretty generous (ranked #30 in NFL), and that's what's probably the basis for some of the "over money" on this game, we don't believe that's enough justification to bet that there will be > 48 total points scored tonight. And the fact that much of that over money is also coming from casual bettors who plan to watch the game and want their "action" on it to be on the over (because they like to see lots of scoring) obviously does not give an over play on this game any credibility, either.
While we acknowledge that NE has been an "in and out" team so far TY and has been much more difficult to handicap, both ATS and totals-wise, than was LY's high scoring group of offensive playmakers aka the "Brady bunch," we need to recognize that Pats' only high scoring effort TY was against the SF Niners, whose "matador" defense and TO prone QB have given up an average of 32 points in their last 4 games. Other than that, the Pats offense has done very little, certainly not enough to justify this high totals line.
Getting back to Denver, while we acknowledge that they have been a road over lately (6-3-1 over in last 10 roadies, covering LY and their two road games TY, both overs), we need to look at what Broncos have been doing lately as well, and that has not been engaging in high scoring "shoot outs" -- far from it, as they have gone under in their last two, with 41 points scored LW vs Jags and a scant 29 in their 16-13 win over Tampa Bay the week before. And it's not like Denver is a low scoring team at home, already having had two home shootouts TY (one for 77 points vs SD and one for 66 vs NO). But before we continue, just a word about that Jags-Denver game LW, which produced our biggest NFL payday of the year (7-0 for + 19 units with all of our official and unofficial picks for that game) -- not only "official" wins on Jags, both ATS and money line, as well as on on the full game under, but also "unofficial" wins on the following plays recommended as part of our Jags/under betting attack strategy contained in our pick write ups -- the first half under, Denver under on indiv team totals line, and both a Jags to under teaser and parlay, with our betting attack strategy for that game producing a "perfect storm" of plays which collectively went 7-0 fpr +19 units (and we invite you to go to Nite Owl's page on this site to verify that by reading our write-ups for those victorious picks). Our point here (in addition to a bit of self-promotion) is that Denver is by no means an "automatic over," like they were perceived by most to be just three weeks ago. There are two primary reasons for this --
1. their opponents realize that the best way to beat Denver is with a ball control offense that both "eats" time off the clock and limits Denver's offensive possessions (which is precisely what both Tampa and Jags did successfully, although Tampa's offense let them down, scoring only 13 in that 16-13 loss), a strategy which leads to shorter games and less scoring, and thus unders. NE's Bill Belichek, being a smart coach, is fully aware of this, even w/o his "spy cam," and will undoubtedly integrate this type of strategy into his offensive game plan.
2. A major component of Denver's high-powered offense, its receiving corps, has been hit with a rash of injuries lately, with the following key skill players officially listed as "questionable" for this game (and even if they do play, how much will their effectiveness be limited by their injuries?)-- WR Royal (ankle), who already has 30 catches TY, and TE Scheffler (groin), neither of whom played LW, and WR Stokely, who left LW's game with a concussion after a hard hit. So with many of their "guns" either on the sideline or not fully "loaded," we're not really expecting a "shootout" type performance even from the Denver offense. With that being the case, Denver's defense knows they have to "step it up" to keep their team in this game.
So based on the foregoing, we believe the best line value in this game in with the under at the current line of 48.5, which we recommend for 3 units. But it doesn't stop there, as we will have a full betting attack strategy for this game when we update our write up later today, for our subscribers. And this pick, updated with that full betting attack strategy containing at least five plays for 10> units, can be yours by purchasing our one day NFL pass, priced at just $25 for today.
One final note, primarliy a reminder for our subscribers, is that if you took our advice yesterday and teased Tampa Bay (a victory on the teased line of -3.5 or -4) last night with the under for this game, you already have a play on the under in this game at a totals line of 55 or 55.5, so you may not want to add to your "under exposure" with another play on the under at 48.5.
