DR BOB
Stanford (-3.5) 33 Virginia Tech 26 (at Orange Bowl)
05:30 PM Pacific, 03-Jan-11
Virginia Tech started the season with a close loss to Boise State that deflated their hopes of a national championship. While dwelling on that loss and playing on a short week (that Boise game was Monday), the Hokies were not at all prepared for their next game and went on to lose to Division 1AA James Madison in a predictable letdown. The Hokies rallied to win 11 consecutive games while going 10-1 ATS after those first two games, which led to them being an underrated team. Virginia Tech will be up against a very good Stanford team whose only loss was on the road against an unbeaten Oregon team, so this sets up to be a pretty intriguing contest.
Stanford’s offense is led by future NFL 1st round draft pick Andrew Luck, who averaged 8.2 yards per pass play against 11 Division 1A opponents that would combine to allow only 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback. The Stanford pass attack will be even more dangerous with big play receiver Chris Owusu back healthy for this game after playing in just 6 games during the regular season. Owusu is Stanford’s most dangerous receiver and is also one of the best kick returners in the nation and his ability to stretch the field also opens up the middle of the field for Stanford’s other good receivers. Luck was 0.3 yppp better in those 6 games that Owusu did play and the Hokies will have their hands full with the Cardinal pass attack. Virginia Tech has a good pass defense (5.3 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.7 yppp against an average defense), but Luck’s numbers against good pass defenses were very good this season. The best 3 pass defenses that Stanford faced this season were Notre Dame, Oregon, and Cal and Luck averaged 8.2 yppp in those 3 games (those teams would allow just 4.6 yppp to an average QB), which is exactly what his average was in all games. In other words, it doesn’t appear as if the opposing defense has much to do with stopping the Cardinal pass attack. Virginia Tech will be in big trouble if their excellent pass defense has no effect on Luck’s ability to throw since the Hokies were not good defending the run. Virginia Tech gave up 5.6 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yprp against an average team), but those numbers were skewed a bit by the 10.8 yprp that they allowed to Wake Forest. However, Virginia Tech’s median rating against the run was 0.5 yprp worse than average so Stanford’s good rushing attack (216 yards at 5.3 yprp against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team) should also be able to move the chains. It appears as if Stanford will have good success running and throwing against Virginia Tech’s defense and my math model projects 446 total yards for the Cardinal at 6.8 yppl even without taking into account that Luck performs relatively better against good defensive teams.
Virginia Tech’s offense is capable of keeping pace, as the Hokies’ good ground game (5.8 yprp against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team) should have their usual productive game against a mediocre Stanford run defense that allowed 5.1 yprp to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yprp against an average team. The key to this game will probably be how well Hokies’ quarterback Tyrod Taylor performs against a good Stanford pass defense (5.5 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.3 yppp against an average defensive team) that got even better down the stretch. The Cardinal gave up just 4.5 yppp in their final 5 games (to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.2 yppp) after getting chewed out by their defensive coordinator after letting up in the second half with a big lead over Washington State. The Cardinal were also without star safety Delano Howell in that game and I rate the Cardinal pass defense at 0.9 yppp better than average heading into this game. Taylor had a year nearly as good as Andrew Luck had, as Taylor averaged 8.0 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback. Taylor had mixed results against good pass defenses and overall he performed at about the same level, on a relative basis, against good defensive teams as he did overall. My math model projects 5.8 yards per rushing play and 7.2 yards per pass play for the Hokies in this game, so they should be able to move the ball pretty consistently too.
Overall my math projects 446 total yards at 6.8 yppl for Stanford and 383 yards at 6.4 yppl for Virginia Tech with the Hokies having a slight edge in projected turnovers and Stanford having a solid edge in special teams. Virginia Tech has very good special teams, but Stanford’s special teams have been among the very best in the nation the last couple of seasons and this year was no different even though they were without Owusu’s kick returns in 6 games. My math favors Stanford by 6 ½ points with a total of 58 points and I’ll lean with Stanford and I have no opinion on the total.
Stanford (-3.5) 33 Virginia Tech 26 (at Orange Bowl)
05:30 PM Pacific, 03-Jan-11
Virginia Tech started the season with a close loss to Boise State that deflated their hopes of a national championship. While dwelling on that loss and playing on a short week (that Boise game was Monday), the Hokies were not at all prepared for their next game and went on to lose to Division 1AA James Madison in a predictable letdown. The Hokies rallied to win 11 consecutive games while going 10-1 ATS after those first two games, which led to them being an underrated team. Virginia Tech will be up against a very good Stanford team whose only loss was on the road against an unbeaten Oregon team, so this sets up to be a pretty intriguing contest.
Stanford’s offense is led by future NFL 1st round draft pick Andrew Luck, who averaged 8.2 yards per pass play against 11 Division 1A opponents that would combine to allow only 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback. The Stanford pass attack will be even more dangerous with big play receiver Chris Owusu back healthy for this game after playing in just 6 games during the regular season. Owusu is Stanford’s most dangerous receiver and is also one of the best kick returners in the nation and his ability to stretch the field also opens up the middle of the field for Stanford’s other good receivers. Luck was 0.3 yppp better in those 6 games that Owusu did play and the Hokies will have their hands full with the Cardinal pass attack. Virginia Tech has a good pass defense (5.3 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.7 yppp against an average defense), but Luck’s numbers against good pass defenses were very good this season. The best 3 pass defenses that Stanford faced this season were Notre Dame, Oregon, and Cal and Luck averaged 8.2 yppp in those 3 games (those teams would allow just 4.6 yppp to an average QB), which is exactly what his average was in all games. In other words, it doesn’t appear as if the opposing defense has much to do with stopping the Cardinal pass attack. Virginia Tech will be in big trouble if their excellent pass defense has no effect on Luck’s ability to throw since the Hokies were not good defending the run. Virginia Tech gave up 5.6 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yprp against an average team), but those numbers were skewed a bit by the 10.8 yprp that they allowed to Wake Forest. However, Virginia Tech’s median rating against the run was 0.5 yprp worse than average so Stanford’s good rushing attack (216 yards at 5.3 yprp against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team) should also be able to move the chains. It appears as if Stanford will have good success running and throwing against Virginia Tech’s defense and my math model projects 446 total yards for the Cardinal at 6.8 yppl even without taking into account that Luck performs relatively better against good defensive teams.
Virginia Tech’s offense is capable of keeping pace, as the Hokies’ good ground game (5.8 yprp against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team) should have their usual productive game against a mediocre Stanford run defense that allowed 5.1 yprp to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yprp against an average team. The key to this game will probably be how well Hokies’ quarterback Tyrod Taylor performs against a good Stanford pass defense (5.5 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.3 yppp against an average defensive team) that got even better down the stretch. The Cardinal gave up just 4.5 yppp in their final 5 games (to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.2 yppp) after getting chewed out by their defensive coordinator after letting up in the second half with a big lead over Washington State. The Cardinal were also without star safety Delano Howell in that game and I rate the Cardinal pass defense at 0.9 yppp better than average heading into this game. Taylor had a year nearly as good as Andrew Luck had, as Taylor averaged 8.0 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback. Taylor had mixed results against good pass defenses and overall he performed at about the same level, on a relative basis, against good defensive teams as he did overall. My math model projects 5.8 yards per rushing play and 7.2 yards per pass play for the Hokies in this game, so they should be able to move the ball pretty consistently too.
Overall my math projects 446 total yards at 6.8 yppl for Stanford and 383 yards at 6.4 yppl for Virginia Tech with the Hokies having a slight edge in projected turnovers and Stanford having a solid edge in special teams. Virginia Tech has very good special teams, but Stanford’s special teams have been among the very best in the nation the last couple of seasons and this year was no different even though they were without Owusu’s kick returns in 6 games. My math favors Stanford by 6 ½ points with a total of 58 points and I’ll lean with Stanford and I have no opinion on the total.
