Steve Merril
NCAA Football
No official play tonight, but I do have an opinion below.
(1% opinion) ALABAMA -6.5 (vs. Clemson) - 8:30 pm ET (ESPN) #151
Clemson had a surprising season by going undefeated at 14-0 SU. The Tigers were projected to be a year or two away from having a really good team after losing a lot of talent from last year’s 10-3 SU team that beat Oklahoma 40-6 in the Russell Athletic Bowl. Clemson was hardly challenged this season, but their two closest games came against the two best defenses they faced; they beat Louisville 20-17 and they beat Notre Dame 24-22. The Tigers will now face the best defense in the country, so their offense has an extremely difficult challenge ahead of them. Alabama’s defense allowed just 13.4 points per game on 4.1 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 29 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. The Crimson Tide had even better defensive numbers away from home where they gave up just 12 points per game. Clemson’s offense and quarterback Deshaun Watson may pose a threat to Alabama’s defense early on because the Tigers run the spread and Watson is the best mobile quarterback in the country. “I think mobile quarterbacks are a problem for every defense, not just us,” said Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart. “We’re maybe better at stopping the traditional-style offenses.” While that is concerning, it also means Watson is going to take more powerful hits than normal, and that will take a toll on him as this game goes on.
Alabama went 13-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming back in Week 3 against Mississippi as 9-point favorites when the Tide suffered a 5-0 turnover disadvantage. Twelve of their thirteen wins this season have come by 13 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping +23.1 points per game. Alabama’s offense was extremely well-balanced this season as they averaged 204 yards per game on the ground and 219 yards per game thru the air. Alabama ran for 215 yards or more in eight games this season, and they won those games by an average of +18.9 points per game. Clemson’s defense allowed 130 rushing yards or more seven times this season, and the Tigers gave up 25.3 points per game in those games. Clemson’s defense gave up just 20 points per game overall, so their defense is vulnerable against good rushing attacks, and Alabama has one of the best in the country with Derrick Henry. Overall, Alabama ranked 9th in offensive and defensive efficiency combined while Clemson ranked 28th. That’s a significant difference, and it clearly shows that Alabama is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Crimson Tide in this national championship game on Monday night.
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No opinion on the Over/Under (50.5). My power ratings make the total 48.5, so it’s more in line now than the opener of 53.
NCAA Football
No official play tonight, but I do have an opinion below.
(1% opinion) ALABAMA -6.5 (vs. Clemson) - 8:30 pm ET (ESPN) #151
Clemson had a surprising season by going undefeated at 14-0 SU. The Tigers were projected to be a year or two away from having a really good team after losing a lot of talent from last year’s 10-3 SU team that beat Oklahoma 40-6 in the Russell Athletic Bowl. Clemson was hardly challenged this season, but their two closest games came against the two best defenses they faced; they beat Louisville 20-17 and they beat Notre Dame 24-22. The Tigers will now face the best defense in the country, so their offense has an extremely difficult challenge ahead of them. Alabama’s defense allowed just 13.4 points per game on 4.1 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 29 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. The Crimson Tide had even better defensive numbers away from home where they gave up just 12 points per game. Clemson’s offense and quarterback Deshaun Watson may pose a threat to Alabama’s defense early on because the Tigers run the spread and Watson is the best mobile quarterback in the country. “I think mobile quarterbacks are a problem for every defense, not just us,” said Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart. “We’re maybe better at stopping the traditional-style offenses.” While that is concerning, it also means Watson is going to take more powerful hits than normal, and that will take a toll on him as this game goes on.
Alabama went 13-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming back in Week 3 against Mississippi as 9-point favorites when the Tide suffered a 5-0 turnover disadvantage. Twelve of their thirteen wins this season have come by 13 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping +23.1 points per game. Alabama’s offense was extremely well-balanced this season as they averaged 204 yards per game on the ground and 219 yards per game thru the air. Alabama ran for 215 yards or more in eight games this season, and they won those games by an average of +18.9 points per game. Clemson’s defense allowed 130 rushing yards or more seven times this season, and the Tigers gave up 25.3 points per game in those games. Clemson’s defense gave up just 20 points per game overall, so their defense is vulnerable against good rushing attacks, and Alabama has one of the best in the country with Derrick Henry. Overall, Alabama ranked 9th in offensive and defensive efficiency combined while Clemson ranked 28th. That’s a significant difference, and it clearly shows that Alabama is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Crimson Tide in this national championship game on Monday night.
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No opinion on the Over/Under (50.5). My power ratings make the total 48.5, so it’s more in line now than the opener of 53.
This has been going on for two months...if Lang is so great, and the others, why would someone not pay for it? I know, I know, cause its free of you keep finding new folks to take advantage. Is there not a whole other section in the Forum for this asking and buy groups?
Good luck to all, especially the Lang play.
Brandon Lang
COLLEGE
CHAMPIONSHIP WINNER
#2 IN A ROW
100 DIME
-MAJOR WAGER-
GAME OF THE YEAR
Alabama -7
Cheers! And, oh, shocker, thanks CPAW!
