Bryant
Fiesta Bowl - Boise State vs. TCU - 8:10 p.m. ET on FOX
Bet: UNDER 53.5
NOTE: Bet this NOW because I believe the line will continue to drop.
At first glance, it would be easy to take the Over in this matchup. We have a Boise State offense averaging 44.2 points per game, with QB Kellen Moore tossing 39 TDs and just 3 INTs. And we also have a TCU offense averaging 40.7 points per game. But that only tells half the story.
As potent as those offenses are, I believe it's the defenses that will tell the story in this one. Boise State's defense allows just 17.7 points and 299.6 yards per game. Their yards per point on defense is a very solid 16.7. TCU's defense is even better. The Horned Frogs allow just 12.4 points and 233.2 yards per game, with a yards per point of 19.5.
These two met in last year's Poinsettia Bowl and TCU prevailed, 17-16. Boise State only played one top caliber team this season and that was their opener against Oregon (another explosive offense). That game ended with 27 total points scored. TCU's only road games against decent opponents were at Clemson (24 total points scored), Air Force (37), and BYU (45).
Bottom line: I don't expect much to be different from last year's bowl clash. I expect this game to end with a total between 41 and 45. Go UNDER.