Craig Davis
Monday's Lineup
75 Dime --- TCU (NOTE: absolutely buy this 1/2 point for insurance down to a key number of 7 or, even better, 6 1/2. never get beat by the hook. This number has been hovering around -7 and -7 1/2 for the better part of two weeks now and I have a feeling it might go up. Get this game as early as you can and shop around to find 7 so you can buy it down to 6 1/2)
10 Dime --- 2 Team, 5-point Teaser: CINCINNATI and OVER
TCU HORNED FROGS (Buy the 1/2 point) --- Instead of calling this the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl it should be called the "We Deserve Respect" Bowl or the "Don't Forget About Us Little Guys" Bowl, because that's all we've been hearing about from these smaller, non-BCS Conferences ever since the BCS came into existence.
And you know what?? They're right. They probably don't get enough respect. They've proven, in past years, to be just as competitive as some of the better teams from BCS Conference schools. Just ask Alabama last year. Or Oklahoma and Pittsburgh from a few years back. It happens every year... one of these big underdogs from a small conference knocks off a "major power" from a BCS Conference and we're left to wonder... "what if?" But what happens when two teams from these "weaker" conferences get together for a bowl game... then what?
To be honest, I think the country is getting rear-ended here. These two Cinderella stories should be playing one of the big boys, not each other. But, it is what it is and I'm here to tell you that TCU is more more equipped this year to handle the talents of a major conference team than the Boise State Broncos. Why? Defense. Boise State's defense is NOTHING compared to TCU's and that's going to be the difference in tonight's game.
If you've been watching these bowl games you've seen complete domination from teams in the Mountain West Conference... from Wyoming's miracle win over Fresno State to Utah and BYU clobbering Cal and Oregon State by double digits (yes, two very good teams from the mighty Pac 10) to Air Force's complete domination of Houston. If my records are correct, the Mountain West Conference is 4-0 this post-season, winning each and every game by 7 or more (three of the four by double digits).
Meanwhile, while MWC teams were kicking the crap out of their competition, teams from Boise's conference, the Western Athletic, were getting kicked around by lesser competition. Want proof? Let's take Nevada, for instance. Okay, so they were without their top RB. That doesn't excuse Nevada from getting pummeled by a very average SMU team like they did. Strike one. What about Fresno State... a team that will play anyone, anytime, anywhere? They started the bowl season off with a lousy overtime loss to pitiful Wyoming. Strike two. And then there was Idaho... the only team that brought respectability to the conference... they eeked out a 43-42 win over Bowling Green by going for two with 4 seconds left. You saw it, you know that game could have gone either way. So you tell me... which conference has impressed you more?
Now, take the top team from the MWC, the TCU Horned Frogs, a team that beat Utah and BYU handily, they beat Virginia and Clemson from BCS Conference schools... and neither one of those teams was able to muster more than 14 points against this vaunted defense. I'm telling you folks... TCU is for real and could compete with any team in the country. This team is better than any team Garry Patterson has had in his tenure at TCU and tonight, in front of the whole country, they will show just how good they are.
This line opened at around 4 and within a few days the sharps pushed it up to 7... another key number in Vegas. The last time I saw (it's happened other times but this one I remember most recently) a line jump like this so quickly was when Florida played Florida State a few weeks back. Florida opened as a 21-point favorite and it was quickly bet up to 24. The Gators ended up winning by 27. I see the same thing happening here... Vegas sharps know how good TCU is and they realize 4 points was an absolute joke. To be honest, I think 7 points is a joke and that's why I'm making it my highest rated college football game to date. The only way TCU doesn't cover this number is if they commit an inordinate amount of penalties and turn the ball over more than they normally do. That's it. It's that clear cut in my book.
I could go into a lot of statistical mumbo jumbo, but you can read the numbers. You know how good both of these teams have been in conference, but what you might not know is that Boise State lacks the defense that TCU has and simply won't be able to stop TCU many times. The Broncos have allowed 21 or more points on five occasions this year while the Frogs allowed more than 17 points just once... to Utah, and the Utes got a late, garbage-time TD as they were trailing 55-21 at the time.
Look, I'm not saying the Broncos won't score points... they clearly will. TCU is not invincible. But I see this game somewhat like I saw Florida and Cincinnati a few nights ago. The Bearcats scored a ton of points during the regular season but when they ran into a team that could actually play defense they struggled to score 3 points in the first half. Cincy would come back to score 21 points in the second half but had absolutely no answer to Florida's offense. I don't think Boise will have an answer for TCU's offense... and even if they score 24 points tonight, they'll have to find a way to stop Andy Dalton and the TCU offense which averaged over 40 points per game.
The last time these two hooked up... in last year's Poinsettia Bowl, TCU walked away with a 17-16 win despite dominating the stat sheet. They feel like they left a lot of points on the field despite their defense playing so well. They held QB Kellen Moore to just over 200 yards passing and no TDs while Boise was barely able to rush for 29 yards in that game. Tonight, they won't leave points on the field... last year left a sour taste in their mouths despite winning the game and tonight they want to finish the job.
Boise's top receiver, Austin Pettis, suffered a severe lower leg injury in their second-to-last game of the regular season vs. Nevada and it's still not 100% and may not play. That's HUGE because he was Kellen Moore's favorite target in the passing game. The guy had 14 TD receptions in their first 11 games before suffering a fractured lower leg in that Nevada game. He's making progress but it's still uncertain whether or not he'll be able to play. Even if he's able to get the "green light", how effective can he really be?
I realize it's hard NOT to take the underdog in this game because so many bowl dogs have been covering, but that's exactly what I thought in the Texas Tech/MSU game and in the Cincy/Florida game... how did that work out? Don't be surprised if the Broncos come out with gadget plays and a circus-style offense early on... because Chris Peterson knows that's the only way his team has a chance to win. But that playbook only goes so deep and eventually the tricks are going to run out. This game might actually be tighter than we want in the first half, but expect the bigger TCU offensive line to wear down Boise State in the second half and walk away with a 14+ point win in tonight's Fiesta Bowl.
2-team, 5-point teaser --- CINCINNATI AND THE OVER (college hoops) --- Despite the football madness these past two months, there's still money to be made in college hoops, and I'm going to prove myself to you with this two-team teaser that's sure to bring home some additional money after TCU covers their bowl game. The Cincy Bearcats are catching the Pitt Panthers in a great spot here, coming into Ohio off an impressive 82-72 upset win over previously-unbeaten Syracuse. The Panthers are still trying to figure out what type of a team they are after losing some talent to the NBA from last year's squad. This team is young, but talented, but they lack the defensive toughness they had last season with DeJuan Blair. To score 82 points against Syracuse on the road tells me a lot about this team... they want to outscore you instead of stopping you... one of the main reasons I like the OVER in this teaser. Both teams average around 70 PPG for the season and I expect both teams to get close to that number here tonight.
I'm taking my chances with Cincy, basically on the money line, to get the SU win over Pittsburgh. Could they cover the 4 points Vegas has them listed at right now? Sure. But I feel much safer playing the Bearcats in this teaser getting a point... meaning they basically just need to win the game. It reminds me a lot of when UConn came into their house and everyone in the world thought the Huskies would walk out with a victory. The line closed at 2 and the Bearcats won by 2, meaning you would have pushed your straight wager but would have won with them in a teaser. Same scenario applies tonight. Pittsburgh comes into this game riding high, emotionally, from that win over Syracuse... and if history has taught us anything it's always safe to play against that team in their next game... especially if it's a road game against a solid opponent. Liking Cincy and the OVER as your top teaser of the day.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------GL GUYS