Service Plays Monday 1/04/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gilberg the Dataman GOY

TCU -7 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ace-Ace

10-7 Bowl Record

TCU -7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Greg Roberts

From Memphis Radio
4-2 his L6 plays

Boise St +7 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ben Burns bowl GOY

TCU

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BANG THE BOOK ( 14-15-1 THUS FAR )


The Fiesta Bowl game pits two teams against one another that are both fighting for respectability. The Boise St Broncos and the TCU Horned Frogs both finished the season unbeaten and the winner of this game could conceivably argue that they deserve a piece of the national Championship. Boise St. Broncos finished the year undefeated and beat the Pac 10 champion Oregon Ducks but they have not gotten much respect. The schedule was weak and for that they slipped in the polls as other undefeated media darlings passed them up along the way. One of those media darlings is the TCU Horned Frogs. The Frogs were undefeated and the polls awarded them with a #3 ranking and teams are lining up to play them next year. They rewarded backers at the window with an 8-4 ATS record and flexed a powerful defense against some packed offenses in the Mountain West. The BCS failed the fans miserably by putting these teams together but one of these teams will have a good argument when this bowl game is over. This game will be a difference maker for the Broncos. They can prove the critics wrong and they can beat the team that stole the spotlight from them. The Broncos are 36-15-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record; they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Boise St takes center stage and proves to the critics that they should be considered among the best in the country.


Fiesta Bowl Pick: Boise St +7.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI

NCAAF

Monday, January 4, 2010
Fiesta Bowl
at Glendale, AZ
TCU 37, Boise State 30

(Current line is 7.5/53.5)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BILL HILTON GAMEDAY SPORTS

Monday:
#262 - 3*TCU-7 vs Boise St

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Teddy Covers

TCU under 20* Big Ticket

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP:

OVERALL: 16-11-3

1*: 3-1
2*: 6-5
3*: 4-4
4*: 3-2




BSU posted its 4th undefeated reg ssn in the L/6Y (3 in L/4). This is their 8th consec bowl and 10th in the L/11Y. BSU is 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS in bowls incl 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS under HC Petersen. BSU is just 1-4 SU (3-2 ATS) in bowls S/’04, losing all 4 gms by a comb 14 pts and is looking to avoid their 1st 3 gm bowl losing streak. In BSU’s L/6 bowls the avg MOV was only 3 ppg. For the 1st time ever, TCU is 12-0 and this their 11th bowl in 12Y. They’re 5-3 SU and 4-3-1 ATS (4-1-1 L/6) under HC Patterson (who signed a contract extension after the reg ssn), but this is their 1st trip to the BCS. Their 13 gm win streak is the 2nd longest only behind Texas and they’re 1 of 5 undefeated’s in the NCAA. LY a one loss TCU (-3) met an undefeated Boise in the Poinsettia and pulled out the 17-16 win. BSU is 4-1 ATS (avg win by 11 ppg) vs bowl-elig tms TY outscoring them by 22 ppg and outgaining them 83 ypg (was actually outgained in 2 of those - FSU, UI). TCU’s motto TY is “Don’t Back Down” and they’ve won their 1st MWC Title since joining the league in ‘05 and enter with the highest ranking ever by a non-BCS tm. TCU went 4-2 ATS vs bowl tms outscoring them 35-14 and outgaining them 441-263. While BSU plays like a Sr-laden tm, they actually have the fewest scholarship Sr’s in the NCAA (4) and feature just 1 Sr st’r (CB Wilson) but do have 19 upperclassmen in starting spots. TCU has 6 senior starters (19 upperclassmen).
When people think of TCU, they think of their D, but their #13 offense has had its own record-setting ssn. Led by MWC OPY QB Dalton they’ve set schl records in pts (488), yds (5629) and have put up at least 38 pts in 9 (another record) and hung 50+ on 4 foes. Dalton is 3 TD passes and 186 yds away from becoming TCU’s all-time leader in those categories. TCU ranks #5th in the NCAA in rush off despite not having a single rusher in the Top 85. They avg 257 ypg (5.4) and have won 31 str when rushing for more than passing. The WR’s account for 83% of the rec TY, led by do-it-all Kerley. The OL has started 97% of the games together and all’d just 10 sks (3.5%) although they have been helped by Dalton’s feet (522 net yds) and have three 1st Tm All-MWC players. TCU’s D continues to dominate and currently ranks #1 in the NCAA (#7 our rankings). They’ve held 4 opp’s to their lowest output of the ssn and every other opp under their ssn avg in both yds and pts and only all’d 1 tm (CU) to put up over 300 ttl yds. The DL allows only 81 ypg rush (2.6) and has 26 of the tm’s 33 sks, with 17 of those coming from the DE spots manned by MWC DPY Jerry Hughes and Wayne Daniels. TCU ranks #5 pass eff D all’g just 153 ypg (46%) with a 10-14 ratio. The ST’s unit ranks #15 with Kerley taking 2 to the house on PR’s. They give up an avg of 19.8 on KR’s but an outstanding 5.0 on PR’s.
The young but cohesive BSU OL has 53 comb sts and provides superb pass protection (just 5 sks all’d) for an off avg 266 ypg pass (65%) while also opening holes for 195 ypg rush (5.3). QB Moore squashed any ideas of going through a “soph slump” by simply becoming the nation’s most efficient passer (167.35) producing an eye-opening 39-3 ratio. The savvy southpaw has thrown at least 3 TD’s in 7 of the L/9 gms incl 5 in a contest 3x’s. Moore has two of the WAC’s top WR’s at his disposal in Pettis and Young, however, Pettis is ? here (brkn leg). Avery highlights a strong run game and when RB Harper was lost TY (ACL), RB-turned-DB Martin ret’d to the off. The diff between TY’s BSU tm and several of the recent past squads is the overall play of the D (#27). BSU ranks #1 in the WAC in scoring D (17.7), ttl D (299.6), pass D (172.8), pass efficiency D (103.5) and is #2 in rush D (126.8). Those figures were also good enough to land at #13 in the NCAA in ttl D and pass D and 16th in scoring D. The DL is limiting foes to 3.9 ypc, while the secondary has been equally impressive by limiting foes to just 173 ypg with a stifling 14-21 ratio. Boise is #1 in our ST rankings led by K/P Brotzman whose rugby-style punts and PK (15-18 from I/40) make him a legitimate dual-threat, while the Broncos’ return units give BSU a 27.3-19.1 ypr edge on KR and an 11.0-4.5 ypr adv on PR.
Both tms have done an incredible job through weight training and preparation to get their athletes to play at higher than expected levels. Looking at the checklist you see that these tms are not very far apart. Boise should be motivated as this is a re-match of LY’s 1 pt loss while TCU was hoping to impress vs a BCS tm. Both tms finished the yr running up scores to impress pollsters but there is concern with TCU’s def that they only had 7 sks in the L/5 gms. Boise wins its 2nd Fiesta Bowl in the L/4Y.
FORECAST: BOISE ST (+) TCU by 3 RATING:

1* BOISE ST

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pick 'n' Roll: Today's best NBA bets

Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat (+1.5, 195.5)

Dwyane Wade isn’t happy these days and he took out his frustration on the refs Saturday against the Charlotte Bobcats. Wade, who didn’t get to the free throw line until the fourth quarter of the game, was given a technical foul for complaining.

“I’m just not getting to the line,” Wade told the South Florida Sun Sentinel following the 107-97 loss to the Bobcats. “I’m not trying to force it. I’m just playing the way I always play.”

Wade, who averages about 9.5 free throw attempts per game over his career, is shooting just 5.8 shots from the charity stripe a night over his last 10 games.

The All-Star guard isn’t going to get any free passes against the Hawks. Atlanta is hungry after dropping its last three games and has lanky wing players who do a good job of defending Wade.

Pick: Atlanta


Oklahoma City Thunder at Chicago Bulls (-1.5, 194.5)

Coaches will tell you that winning streaks are always welcome but maybe never more than when a bench boss is fighting off the pink slip. The Grim Reaper had Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro in a headlock but Del Negro escaped – at least temporarily – thanks in large part to his team’s four-game win streak.

Of course the person Del Negro should really be thanking is Derrick Rose. The Bulls point guard poured in 30 points and seven assists in a 101-93 win over the Orlando Magic.

“Don't count us out,” Rose told the Chicago Tribune. “We can compete with the best teams in the NBA. And we're not stopping here. We've found our groove and we're going to keep going.”

Chicago luck should come to an end against the visiting Thunder. Oklahoma City plays a great away from home and guard Thabo Sefolosha should be able to slow down Rose.

Pick: Oklahoma City

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ice picks: Today's best NHL bets

Boston Bruins at New York Rangers (-120, 5.5)

Marion Gaborik thought he was leaving behind an offensive hell but it turns out he left one and joined another. The former member of the Minnesota Wild is getting little help putting the puck in the net from his new teammates.

He leads the Rangers in scoring with 52 points, 20 points better than second-leading scorer Vaclav Prospal. Gaborik was the only Blue Shirt to light the lamp Saturday against the Hurricanes, a game New York lost 2-1 in overtime.

“We held [the Hurricanes] to single-digit scoring chances against and generated offense, but we can’t be satisfied with generating scoring chances, we have to score,” coach John Tortorella told the New York Post.

The Bruins aren’t exactly stocked with offensive playmakers either. The B’s signed free agent forward Miroslav Satan on Saturday. Don’t expect the past-his-prime sniper to contribute.

The under is a collective 4-16 in both teams’ last 10 games.

Pick: Under


Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks (-210, 5.5)

The best line in hockey just keeps on rolling. Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley and Patrick Marleau celebrated their selection to the Canadian men’s Olympic hockey team by registering a combined five points in a 4-1 win over the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday.

“I don’t think we look too much into it,” Marleau told the San Jose Mercury News of his line’s point production. “It’s just one of those things where you’re playing well, the team’s doing well and the wealth gets spread around quite a bit.”

Saturday’s win was San Jose’s eighth straight and the club is averaging 3.9 goals per game over the streak.

The Kings haven’t been nearly as hot lately. Los Angeles was tied with the Sharks at the top of the West standings just a few weeks ago, but a 3-5 slump has the club hanging on to the final playoff spot.

Pick: Sharks

 

[BiggDogg5n2]

St. Bernadine Sports...

Andrew Bucciarelli

8 winning days in a row... ​

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Adding to an already incredible 20 Day Run...​

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41-18 (+32.00 Units) ​

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2* Boston Bruins (+106) over New York Rangers
This is the second game between these two teams as the first matchup gave the Rangers a 1-0 series lead. The Rangers will be facing a much stronger Boston Bruin team and this matchup will go to the away team. The Rangers are coming off a loss to the league worst Carolina Hurricanes. The Boston Bruins are still going strong after their Winter Classic win. If they follow history, they will be the third team to win the next four games after winning the Winter Classic. The Rangers have lost the last 8 of 9 at Madison Square Garden. Look for Marc Savard to come out of his slump and pull a win together for the Bruins.

2* San Jose Sharks (-200) over Los Angeles Kings
This is the fourth of six meetings this season and the Kings have taken two of three games so far this season. Both games have been very close decisions and San Jose is looking to continue their eight game winning streak by defeating the Kings. Evgeni Nabokov has allowed two goals or less in eight consecutive starts, going 7-0-1 in that stretch with a .947 save percentage. The Sharks have just 8 losses and they are not going to beat their own drum. They are still taking each game one at a time and will not lower their play when they take on the Kings. Watch Nabokov as he will have a great game.

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Hotsheet - CFB

Paid Pick - Boise

Free Pick - Over 53

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

FIESTA BOWL
(at Glendale, Ariz.)

(6) Boise State (13-0, 8-4 ATS) vs. (4) TCU (12-0, 8-4 ATS)

Two non-BCS squads hook up in the postseason for the second straight year, this time at University of Phoenix Stadium in the marquee Fiesta Bowl, as Boise State meets TCU in a battle of unbeatens.

The Broncos capped their fourth undefeated regular season in the last six years with a 42-7 rout of New Mexico State on Dec. 5, but came up short as a massive 46-point home chalk. Boise State rolled to its third straight Western Athletic Conference title by winning 12 of its 13 games by double digits, with nine wins of 17 points or more. Going back to the start of last season, coach Chris Petersen’s squad is 25-1 SU and 16-7-1 ATS, with the only blemish being a 17-16 loss to TCU in last year’s Poinsettia Bowl. Also, since September 2005, the Broncos are 57-6 SU, and this is their second BCS Bowl appearance, having stunned Oklahoma 43-42 in the Fiesta Bowl following the 2006 season to finish that year 13-0.

The Horned Frogs have been idle since Nov. 28, when they destroyed New Mexico 51-10 at home, though they fell just shy of covering the 44½-point spread, ending a 6-0 ATS run. En route to its first-ever Mountain West Conference championship, TCU notched 10 double-digit wins, including the last seven in a row by a combined score of 329-73, with victory margins of 38, 31, 41, 43, 27, 35 and 41 points. Coach Gary Patterson’s team is 26-2 over the past 28 games (18-8 ATS in lined action), with 24 of those victories by double digits. The only losses were on the road to Oklahoma (35-10) and Utah (13-10), two teams that finished last year ranked in the Top 5.

Although the Horned Frogs barely held off Boise State in last year’s Poinsettia Bowl, they dominated the game from a statistical standpoint, finishing with edges of 472-250 in total yards, 275-28 in rushing yards, 28-15 in first downs and 36-24 in time of possession. Still, TCU came up short as a 3½-point favorite. The only other recent meeting between these schools came in the 2003 Texas Bowl, with Boise State prevailing 34-31 but failing to cover as a 10-point favorite.

Since stunning Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, Boise State has lost consecutive bowl games by a total of four points. Under Petersen the Broncos are just 1-4 in the postseason (the one victory over Oklahoma) but 3-2 ATS with the four defeats by a combined 14 points.

The Horned Frogs are in the postseason for the 11th time in the last 12 years, with this being their first BCS bowl contest. TCU is 5-3 SU and 4-3-1 ATS in the postseason since Patterson took over, including 4-1-1 ATS in the last six.

Boise State scored 42 points or more in nine of 13 games this year, including the last seven in a row, when the Broncos averaged 49.3 ppg. Led by QB Kellen Moore (64.6 completion rate, 3,325 yards, 39 TDs, 3 INTs), the Broncos lead the nation in scoring offense (44.2 ppg), rank eighth in total offense (460.5 ypg) and 20th in rushing offense (195.1 ypg). Defensively, Boise limited six opponents to 16 points or less and finished giving up 17.7 points and 299.6 total yards per outing (126.8 rushing ypg).

TCU scored 44, 38, 41, 55, 55, 45 and 51 points over its final seven weeks and enter this contest ranked in the Top 10 nationally in scoring offense (40.7 ppg, third), total offense (469.1 ypg, fourth) and rushing offense (256.5 ypg, fifth). Three-year starting QB Andy Dalton paces the attack, as he’s completed 62.4 percent of his passes for 2,484 yards with 22 TDs and five INTs, along with 516 rushing yards and three additional scores.

In addition to having a Top 10 offense, the Horned Frogs rank in the Top 10 in scoring defense (12.4 ppg, sixth), total defense (233.3 ypg, first), passing defense (152.8 ypg, tied for fourth) and rushing defense (80.5 ypg, third). The Frogs have surrendered 17 points or less in 20 of their last 22 games against Division I-A foes since the start of the 2008 season. Take away the 35-10 loss at Oklahoma last year, and they’ve yielded just 31 touchdowns since the beginning of 2008. Moreover, TCU has surrendered 10 points or less 14 times in 25 games going back to the beginning of last year.

Boise State is on a boatload of positive ATS runs, including 16-7-1 overall, 6-2 in bowl games, 4-1 as an underdog, 4-1 as a ‘dog in bowl games, 4-0 when catching 3½ to 10 points, 6-1 in non-conference play and 9-0 on grass. Likewise, the Horned Frogs also have been a moneymaking machine, currently on ATS upticks of 39-19-1 overall, 6-1 in the last six games (all as a favorite), 4-1 in bowls, 7-1 when coming off a non-cover and 37-18-1 when playing on grass.

The under is on runs of 5-1 for Boise in non-league action, 5-0 for Boise against Mountain West opponents, 6-2 for Boise as an underdog, 5-0-1 for TCU in bowl games, 6-1 for TCU against WAC foes, 6-0 when TCU is favored by 3½ to 10 points and 12-3-1 for TCU after a non-cover. On the flip side, the over is on streaks of 4-1 for the Broncos overall, 5-2 for the Broncos against winning teams and 4-0 for TCU overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


NBA

Atlanta (21-11, 22-10 ATS) at Miami (16-15, 15-16 ATS)

Two teams looking to end three-game losing streaks meet inside the American Airlines Arena in Miami when the Hawks visit the Heat in a Southeast Division showdown.

Atlanta comes in having dropped five of seven (3-4 ATS), including a 112-108 home loss to the Knicks on Friday as an 11-point favorite. The last time the Hawks were on the road was Wednesday when they lost 106-101 in Cleveland but got the cash as 5½-point ‘dogs. Atlanta hasn’t been playing much defense lately, allowing 107 points and 49.4 percent shooting over the last five games, including 41.4 percent shooting from beyond the three-point line.

Miami’s three-game SU and ATS losing streak (0-3 ATS) includes a disastrous 107-97 home loss to the Bobcats on Saturday, falling outright as a six-point favorite. The Heat’s three-game skid comes on the heels of winning five of six (both SU and ATS), including four of five at home.

The Hawks have dominated this series lately, including last year’s Eastern Conference playoff series, winning seven of the last 10 meetings (6-4 ATS). That includes a 105-90 victory on Nov. 18, cashing as a 7½-point home chalk. However, the host has covered in each of the last four clashes, and the Heat hold a 14-4 ATS advantage in the last 18 meetings in South Beach.

Atlanta comes in on pointspread surges of 9-4 overall, 5-2 on the road, 4-0-2 on Monday, 6-0 after a non-cover and 4-1 after getting two days off. Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five after getting a day off, but otherwise is on ATS slides of 4-10 at home, 1-4 on Mondays and 8-21 at home against teams with a winning road record.

The Hawks have stayed under the total in seven of nine Monday games and 13 of 18 after a non-cover, but soared “over” the number in four of five overall and five of six against Eastern Conference teams. The Heat have stayed below the posted total in five of six overall and five of seven against Eastern Conference squads, but they are on “over” streaks of 29-11-1 after a non-cover and 34-16-1 after a straight-up loss. In this series, the “under” is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings, including 5-0 in the five clashes in Florida.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Boise st
Cincinnati

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI
Atlantic Sun Conference
BELMONT 79, Stetson 62
East Tennessee State 75, USC UPSTATE 61
JACKSONVILLE 77, Kennesaw State 64
LIPSCOMB 84, Florida Gulf Coast 73
NORTH FLORIDA 73, Mercer 71
Big East Conference
Pittsburgh 65, CINCINNATI 63
Big South Conference
COASTAL CAROLINA 75, Presbyterian 59
HIGH POINT 79, UNC Asheville 75
RADFORD 88, Gardner-Webb 71
Winthrop 66, CHARLESTON SOUTHERN 65
Big West Conference
Cal State Northridge 78, UC DAVIS 76
UC IRVINE 74, Cal Poly 66
UC RIVERSIDE 62, UC Santa Barbara 61
Colonial Athletic Association
GEORGE MASON 65, Hofstra 59
GEORGIA STATE 57, Drexel 54
JAMES MADISON 72, Delaware 66
Old Dominion 71, TOWSON 58
VCU 70, Northeastern 62
WILLIAM & MARY 79, UNC Wilmington 67
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Iona 65, CANISIUS 62
MANHATTAN 68, Rider 66
NIAGARA 72, Fairfield 68
SAINT PETER'S 63, Marist 52
Siena 75, LOYOLA (MD.) 67
Ohio Valley Conference
EASTERN ILLINOIS 73, Tennessee Tech 70
EASTERN KENTUCKY 76, Austin Peay 73
Jacksonville State 77, SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE 74
MOREHEAD STATE 80, Tennessee State 66
MURRAY STATE 83, Tennessee-Martin 66
Southern Conference
DAVIDSON 65, Samford 55
Southwestern Athletic Conference
Alabama State 68, GRAMBLING STATE 62
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 72, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE 66
JACKSON STATE 77, Alabama A&M 63
PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 74, Southern 67
TEXAS SOUTHERN 85, Alcorn State 69
Western Athletic Conference
Boise State vs. HAWAI'I: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Idaho vs. SAN JOSE STATE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
LOUISIANA TECH 72, Utah State 69
Nevada 84, NEW MEXICO STATE 82
Non-Conference
Alabama 74, TOLEDO 59
Arkansas State 70, LAMAR 69
BETHUNE-COOKMAN 67, Long Island 60
BROWN 70, Wagner 65
Bucknell 64, DARTMOUTH 62
COLGATE 63, Central Connecticut State 59
COLUMBIA 61, American 57
FLORIDA STATE 76, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 56
Harvard 74, SANTA CLARA 65
KENT STATE 85, Norfolk State 59
LSU 75, McNeese State 57
Mississippi State 72, WESTERN KENTUCKY 69
Navy 70, HOWARD 66
North Carolina 93, COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON 76
OKLAHOMA 87, Umes 55
ROBERT MORRIS 74, Morgan State 72
VANDERBILT 80, Middle Tennessee 59
WESTERN ILLINOIS 53, Savannah State 47

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI
Season: 210-145 (.592)

Boston vs. N.Y. RANGERS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
SAN JOSE 3, Los Angeles 2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI
Season
Straight Up: 332-138 (.706)
ATS: 261-224 (.538)

Atlanta vs. MIAMI: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
CHICAGO 99, Oklahoma City 96
UTAH 101, New Orleans 93
Portland 97, L.A. CLIPPERS 91

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joey Torelli 1/4

NBA:
Atlanta -1.5

NCAAF:
TCU -7.5

NCAAB:
Towson +11.5
Toledo +13.5
W. Kentucky +6.5
Santa Clara +5.5
Hawaii -1.5