Service Plays Monday 09/14/09

[brewerfan003]

Vernon Croy's Monday Night NFL Smash (100% Perfect Angle)
3* Take the Buffalo Bills ATS, The Bills are a much improved team coming into this season although you likely couldn't tell from the meaningless preseason games so for them to be double digit dogs in week one of the NFL season we must capitalize on it even against the Patriots. Buffalo is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played in week 1 of the NFL season and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in September. The Patriots are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of -10.5 or more and they are also just 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -10.5 or more. Grab the points with the Buffalo Bills as my Monday Night NFL Smash.

 

[Deathknight7]

Chris Jordan has 1 football and 3 baseball picks today

Jordan got real lucky on balty yesterday, maybe his luck is changing...Living in the bay area, i totally agree with his Charger pick as the Raiders will suck once again. Playing SD and staying away from his baseball...Good Luck!!:toast:




400♦ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - Analysis due back by 4 p.m. eastern

Guys, I apologize for an earlier typo that had the Chargers asa 300♦. It was always intended to be a 400♦, and this is an easy fix, as you simply need to add 100♦ to your wager - if you've already made it.


Monday night RUN LINE winners ...
<center>All three of these plays are on the Run Line</center>

100♦ TEXAS RANGERS (WITH Feldman) - Analysis due back by 4 p.m. eastern

100♦ L.A. DODGERS (TAKE Garland over McCutchen) -

100♦ S.F. GIANTS (TAKE Lincecum over Hammel) -

 

[Mr.Maxx]

5 Unit Play. Game of the week. Take Under 9.5 between Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles (Monday @ 7:05pm). David Hernandez comes off one of his worst outings of his career. He gave up 6 runs in in less than three innings to Boston on the road. The Orioles went on to lose that game 0-10 at Fenway. Hernandez needs a quality start at home today as he faces another quality team in the Rays. Hernandez has good stuff and he showed it against the Oakland A's when he won 3-2 earlier this year as well as defeating the Redsox at Fenway. I look for him to get back to form as he faced two of the best teams in the league in Boston and New York. David Price also faced the Yankees and Redsox in back to back starts. He gave up just 2 runs in 6 innings in New York but picked up a no-decision against the Yankees as the Rays fell short 2-3. David has pitched 4 of 5 quality starts and I has not picked up a win since August 29th at Detroit and I expect him to look for the win today. I like the 9.5 line here as Price and Hernandez both are on bounce-backs of sorts and I think this game can stay within single digits. I talk often about the 65% and -130 line. Basically what it states is when there is a consensus of 65% on a team, in particular, a road team and the line still remains at -130 and doesn't shift too much, Vegas is expecting a quality start from the home dog pitcher. Consequently, this game has a sound chance of going under. We have cashed on this principle several times already and I see no reason to change here. The Under is 5-0-1 for Price when the total is set at this range of late and the Under is 7-3 when the Orioles face a lefty of late.

Good luck,
IC

 

[pollopelon]

Charliessports
nfl. buffalo+11, oakland+10, san diego @ oakland over 42' (500*)
nfl. buffalo @ new england under 47 (30*)
mlb. st. louis-115 (20*)
mlb. angels+110 (20*)
mlb. astros @ reds over 7' runs (10*)

 

[Mr.Maxx]

1-Unit Play. Take #910 L.A. Dodgers (-1.5, -120) over Pittsburgh (10 p.m., Monday, Sept. 14)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #922 Minnesota (-150) over Cleveland (8 p.m., Monday, Sept. 14)

1-Unit Play. Take #906 St. Louis (-110) over Florida (8 p.m., Monday, Sept. 14)

1-Unit Play. Take #918 Detroit (-1.5, -130) over Toronto (7 p.m., Monday, Sept. 14)

1-Unit Play. Take #920 Texas (-1.5, -110) over Oakland (8 p.m., Monday, Sept. 14)

Today’s Totals
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Tampa Bay at Baltimore (7 p.m., Monday, Sept. 14)

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Toronto at Detroit (7 p.m., Monday, Sept. 14)


That's it for today. Writeups to follow. Ferringo

 

[brewerfan003]

KING CREOLE...

7:00pm ET / Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

One of the topics in this week's Playbook TOTALS TIPSHEET covered the area of HIGH Over / Under lines in week one action. And the recommendation is to go UNDER the Total in these games. If you followed that plan yesterday, you went 4-1 overall.

6-27 O/U since 2000: All NFL Week One games in which the OU Line is 45 > points. In the last 5 years, these games gave gone an amazing 1-14 O/U. Yesterday's results for these game: Colts / Jags: WINNER... Cards / Niners: WINNER... Packers / Bears: WINNER... Saints / Lions: Loser.

This New England / Buffalo AFC East division series has had VERY Low-scoring results in the last 10 years. These teams are 4-16 O/U vs each other in the last 20 meetings. And when playing IN New England, the results are 1-9 O/U. Average OU line: 39.7. Average combined points: only 34.2.

BIG favorites on Monday night football have also trended UNDER recently.
2-9 O/U since 2000: All MONDAY home favs of > 10 points (Pats), If the OU Line is > 36 points, the results improve to 1-8 O/U.

Speaking of Mondays. let's look at the division aspect of this game.
2-8 O/U since 2002: All MONDAY division home favs with an OU Line of 45 > pts.
Buffalo comes in with Revenge from a couple of losses last season (both went UNDER!).

10-23 O/U since 2004: All GAME ONE teams playing with division Revenge (Bills). These REVENGERS went 1-4 O/U yesterday. And when the OU line is > 43 points, our 10-23 O/U System improves to 1-7 O/U.

Let's look at the point spread / OU line combination:

1-8 O/U since 2004: All GAME SIX or less division home favs of -3 to -13 points... with an OU Line range of 46 to 48 points (Pats).
Here's a query based on last year's WIN totals for the host Patriots:

2-12 O/U last 4 years: All GAME ONE home favs of -3 to -13 points.... if they won 11 or more games the previous season (Pats).

I ran a final query for AFC EAST division battles in the first half of the season. When the OU Line is relatively higher, the UNDER has ruled.

1-8-1 O/U since 2003: All AFC EAST division games in the first TWO months of the season when the OU Line is > 41 points (Like tonight).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MTI (NC Feature Line)
4* Cinn
4* Under 9' Oak
3* Under 8 Ariz

 

[jonnyangel]

sportsbetsnow

NFL 0-1 yest

1 unit - New England -11
1 unit - Oakland +10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ALATEX MLB for TODAY

MLB REGULAR PLAY SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS UNDER 7

 

[marksdolphins]

MLB Grand Slam!
Steve Merril's fantastic MLB season continues with the strongest MLB Over/Under for Monday night - 7 pm ET - Guaranteed to WIN AGAIN!
Tampabay under 9.5

Bought and confirmed (BOL)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tim Trushel

Reds 20* underdog goy

Raiders reg

 

[marksdolphins]

PHILLY-CONNECTION(betonepicks)
Hot-Ticket(Pow)
4*(nfl)#481 Chargers-9.5(buy .5)
(3-0)Sweep Sunday
(4-0)NFL(2009)
2008-09 NFL Documented
W/L/P: 24/15/0
Win:Loss: 61.54%
Total Units: +27.9
---------------------------
(7-0) Game of Year Winners
---------------------------------

 

[marksdolphins]

Newyorksportsinvestors
(4-1)NFL Sunday

Bills/Patriots U 47
Chargers-10
Devilrays-138

Paid and confirmed

 

[brewerfan003]

cstar sports

5000 Units New England Minus the points over Buffalo
1000 Units San Diego/Oakland over the total
50 Units MLB Florida/ ST Louis under the total

 

[brewerfan003]

Sports Investing Professional

Todays Plays - I'm going to stay with MLB Today as the Football games don't provide much value. San Diego Chargers have been dreadful underachievers but I'd have to light myself on fire before I'd bet on the Raiders. I need to see how New England is going to mesh but on the other hand how in the hell is Buffalo going to score? New England if you can get it at 9.5 or buy it may be worth a whirl but a little high for my taste unless I get other information. So I'm sticking with my man Feldman for Texas. His 0.54 ERA in his last 3 is just what the doctor ordered with Texas being at home where they are so strong. I won't lay -200 but I will do the runline at -105 as I think that represents GREAT value.

MLB - Texas Rangers -1.5 -105 Tomko / Feldman - Bet to win 2 Units


May The Ball Bounce Your Way,

The Sports Investing Professional

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Maddux

Football

#482 - NFL - 3 units on Oakland +10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JIMMY THE GENT (6-2) (+5.20 UNITS)

play for monday double header .


im gonna roll with the under 47.5 in tonights game, the pats should have this game well in hand by the half. i still feel the pats are banged up and are not letting the public know about it. belichek has done this in the past , where his game plan is the total opposite of what the majority thinks. ya the pats have brady and weapons and i expect them to put on a show. however i also think the coaching staff doesnt want a repeat of last year, (granted it happened in the first few plays of the game) as they look to keep brady healthy. they could pull him with a huge lead which is what might happen here tonight if the pats are up big. the patriots defense has always played great at home, but the secondary is what scares me. they look horrible in my eyes. i look for T.O to get double teamed and the running game stuffed. pats win this game 31-10.

PATRIOTS UNDER 47.5 WILL BE A 2* PLAY
PARTIOTS -11 WILL BE A 1* PLAY

night cap game with CHARGERS / RAIDERS

CHARGERS -10 .........3* all though San Diego has been known for slow starts to begin the season, i think they will destroy the raiders tonight. they have the advantage in every category. San Diego has defeated Oakland in 11
straight games, covering in the last four and 11 of the last 12.

CHARGERS - 10 WILL BE A 3* PLAY

 

[TMaN2000]

FadeStewTheSquare:

1 unit on Oakland +11

1-1 so far this year

 

[PiratesRule45]

Adam Meyer

4 units:
Patriots -11
3 units:
Astros
Padres

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAROLINA SPORTS NFL PICK for TODAY

MICHAEL BLAKE owner OF CAROLINA SPORTS
CAROLINA SPORTS NFL PICK for TODAY

Opinion: San Diego -10