SportsbetCapping-Freddy Wills (Fast Cash Freddy)
Tonight's Free Pick is between Giants and the Marlins.
Randy Johnson comes off his 300th win where he did leave with a shoulder bruise. He has an amazing 8-1 1.78 ERA career record against the Fish. However, he has just 1 start in 5 seasons against the Marlins. Randy Johnson will go on 3 days rest today! He has not done that in the last 3 seasons. I did not research past that because once I saw he did not have a 3 day rest start in 06-08 it became irrelevant in my opinion he is a very different starter since 05.
West the LHP will go up and will likely be more motivated going up against a Hall of Fame Lefty. In the last 10 games the Giants are hitting .234 vs. LHP 3.03 runs per 9 while the Marlins .324 avg vs. LHP and 7.99 R/9!
This was very close to being a premium selection, but it just missed the cut. 61% of the betting public are on the Giants here yet the line has not moved accordingly. The Marlins opened at -120 and the line has moved up to -128, -133 and as high as -139 in some places.The Giants are 4-13 in their last 17 road games against a left-handed starter. The Marlins are 6-0 following a SU loss.
Take Marlins -128 2U play (1-5U scale)
Tonight's Free Pick is between Giants and the Marlins.
Randy Johnson comes off his 300th win where he did leave with a shoulder bruise. He has an amazing 8-1 1.78 ERA career record against the Fish. However, he has just 1 start in 5 seasons against the Marlins. Randy Johnson will go on 3 days rest today! He has not done that in the last 3 seasons. I did not research past that because once I saw he did not have a 3 day rest start in 06-08 it became irrelevant in my opinion he is a very different starter since 05.
West the LHP will go up and will likely be more motivated going up against a Hall of Fame Lefty. In the last 10 games the Giants are hitting .234 vs. LHP 3.03 runs per 9 while the Marlins .324 avg vs. LHP and 7.99 R/9!
This was very close to being a premium selection, but it just missed the cut. 61% of the betting public are on the Giants here yet the line has not moved accordingly. The Marlins opened at -120 and the line has moved up to -128, -133 and as high as -139 in some places.The Giants are 4-13 in their last 17 road games against a left-handed starter. The Marlins are 6-0 following a SU loss.
Take Marlins -128 2U play (1-5U scale)
thanks to me and metsfan2008
Al DeMarco
Monday's Play
5 Dime - Arizona Diamondbacks
Handicapping games isn't simply about finding numbers that fit. Sometimes it about playing hunches, using your intuition; other times it's about playing percentages. It's the latter case that applies in backing Arizona as the big road dog tonight at San Diego.
These two teams played 18 innings yesterday, a game in which the Diamondbacks prevailed 9-6 in 18 innings when Mark Reynolds smacked a three-run homer off shortstop - yes, shortstop - Josh Wilson, who was pressed into duty after San Diego used seven relievers plus Friday's starter Chad Gaudin.
With both teams exhausting their bullpens on Sunday (Arizona used seven relievers as well), it's imperative the starting pitchers eat some innings tonight. And this is where the percentage play comes in. The Padres are turning to Jake Peavy, who exited last Tuesday's home start against Philadelphia after one inning in which he allowed four runs on three hits and two walks. The righthander was battling a sprained ankle and what is now being called an upper respiratory infection, which had left him weakened before the game.
At bigger issue for Peavy, who has already thrown more innings than any other San Diego starter this season (74.2), is that he's another one of these guys who has struggled this year after participating in Bud Selig's pet project, the World Baseball Classic. Two others of note: Houston's Roy Oswalt, and the guy who cost me yesterday, Boston's Dice-K. Needless to say, the jury is out on whether Peavy can give the Padres the innings their over-taxed bullpen needs tonight.
Arizona gives the ball to Jon Garland, who is coming off a superb six-inning stint at Los Angeles in which he held the Dodgers to one run on four hits, lowering his road ERA to 2.01 in five starts this season. The righthander has already won at Petco Park this season, pitching three-hit ball over seven shutout innings on May 6, improving to 2-1 with a 0.82 ERA in three career starts versus the Padres.
Garland will face a San Diego offense that is last in the majors with a collective .235 batting average. And the Padres are hitting just .201 while going 1-5 on their current seven-game homestand, getting outscored 41-21 in those contests.
Peavy knows all about San Diego's offensive woes; he's received just three runs of support in his last three home starts against Arizona. That's why he's 0-2 in those starts despite a 2.70 ERA.
The Diamondbacks aren't that good, but they have scored 21 runs in taking two of the first three games in this series. And at this price, they're worth the investment as the big road dog tonight.
Al DeMarco
Monday's Play
5 Dime - Arizona Diamondbacks
Handicapping games isn't simply about finding numbers that fit. Sometimes it about playing hunches, using your intuition; other times it's about playing percentages. It's the latter case that applies in backing Arizona as the big road dog tonight at San Diego.
These two teams played 18 innings yesterday, a game in which the Diamondbacks prevailed 9-6 in 18 innings when Mark Reynolds smacked a three-run homer off shortstop - yes, shortstop - Josh Wilson, who was pressed into duty after San Diego used seven relievers plus Friday's starter Chad Gaudin.
With both teams exhausting their bullpens on Sunday (Arizona used seven relievers as well), it's imperative the starting pitchers eat some innings tonight. And this is where the percentage play comes in. The Padres are turning to Jake Peavy, who exited last Tuesday's home start against Philadelphia after one inning in which he allowed four runs on three hits and two walks. The righthander was battling a sprained ankle and what is now being called an upper respiratory infection, which had left him weakened before the game.
At bigger issue for Peavy, who has already thrown more innings than any other San Diego starter this season (74.2), is that he's another one of these guys who has struggled this year after participating in Bud Selig's pet project, the World Baseball Classic. Two others of note: Houston's Roy Oswalt, and the guy who cost me yesterday, Boston's Dice-K. Needless to say, the jury is out on whether Peavy can give the Padres the innings their over-taxed bullpen needs tonight.
Arizona gives the ball to Jon Garland, who is coming off a superb six-inning stint at Los Angeles in which he held the Dodgers to one run on four hits, lowering his road ERA to 2.01 in five starts this season. The righthander has already won at Petco Park this season, pitching three-hit ball over seven shutout innings on May 6, improving to 2-1 with a 0.82 ERA in three career starts versus the Padres.
Garland will face a San Diego offense that is last in the majors with a collective .235 batting average. And the Padres are hitting just .201 while going 1-5 on their current seven-game homestand, getting outscored 41-21 in those contests.
Peavy knows all about San Diego's offensive woes; he's received just three runs of support in his last three home starts against Arizona. That's why he's 0-2 in those starts despite a 2.70 ERA.
The Diamondbacks aren't that good, but they have scored 21 runs in taking two of the first three games in this series. And at this price, they're worth the investment as the big road dog tonight.
