Scott Rickenbach
Regular Play: Texas Rangers Money Line (-) vs Toronto
This line could start to climb from the 145 range and we rarely even play favorites in this range. It takes special situations – like the rout we expect tonight – to get us up into this moderate price range. Play this one as early as you can and now here are the details as to why we’re willing to lay the price here!
We’ve had a great pulse on Blue Jays games as we’ve gone 13-4 the last 17 plays we’ve had involving a Toronto game. One of the keys to our success with the Jays is noting their home/road dichotomy. Our streak on Blue Jays games dates back to last season but, as for this season, note that Toronto is just 11-17 on the road. Also note that they’re facing a Rangers club who is a rock solid 18-9 at home this season! The Rangers .526 slugging percentage at home is the best in baseball. They also are coming home with a ton of confidence after taking two of three from the Red Sox in Boston over the weekend. As for Toronto, even though they’ve hit the ball quite well on the road this season, their 5.03 ERA away from the Rogers Centre ranks 26th among the 30 MLB teams. They are unlikely to improve on that ERA tonight. That’s because Casey Janssen gets the start for the Blue Jays!
Janssen wasn’t in the bigs for the 2008 season and this will be just his fourth start of the 2009 season. So far, the Jays right-hander continues to show he’s a “work in progress” at this level. He’s been rocked for 11 earned runs on 26 hits in 17 innings of work this season! Janssen has as many walks as strikeouts and in his only career appearance at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, the results were not pretty. He didn’t even make it out of the fourth inning and we expect him to get rocked again here. Janssen actually has some impressive numbers in day games in his career but it’s a different story for him under the lights. At night, Janssen is 7-15 in his career with a 4.96 ERA and he’s been ripped at a .301 clip by opponents! While Janssen is yet to turn the corner in his young career, the story is quite different for his counterpart tonight!
Scott Feldman gets the ball for the Rangers this evening and he’s “in the zone” to put it mildly. The Rangers right-hander is 5-0 with a 3.79 ERA but what’s most impressive is how he’s thrown since moving into the rotation. In his eight starts this season he’s never allowed more than three earned runs and Feldman has allowed two earned runs or less on six occasions! His career numbers against the Blue Jays are not that impressive but this is his first start against them this season and he’s a much different pitcher now than he was the last time he started against them in 2008. Also, Feldman is a much different pitcher since the last time he faced them out of the bullpen – in late April. Keep in mind he just pitched very well in his start against the Yankees in a very hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Now he returns to another hitter-friendly park but he’s actually been solid here in his career. He has a 4.05 ERA and a .244 BAA in his career outings at Rangers Ballpark. Also, throughout his career – and especially now – Feldman has been tough on right-handed hitters. That is significant here because the Jays only have three left-handed sticks on their roster and only two of those are regulars – Lyle Overbay and Adam Lind. It’s going to be a tough night for this Jays lineup to try and catch up with the stuff of Feldman as he’s allowed just 34 hits in his 48 innings since moving into the rotation! The Blue Jays road struggles continue while the Rangers stay hot at home. Play Texas on the money line as a regular selection.