Craig Davis
Craig Davis Monday's Lineup
25 Dime ---- CARDINALS (With Looper and Lohse as listed pitchers)
10 Dime ---- Pirates-Nationals OVER
ST. LOUIS --- Top play of the day on the St. Louis Cardinals over Milwaukee in an attempt to end a two-game losing streak to the Brewers and avoid the three-game sweep.
Kyle Lohse takes the hill for the Red Birds tonight, trying to bounce back from a couple of really bad outings. In his last two starts, Lohse has allowed 13 ER on in just 10+ innings of work, also allowing 5 BB and 3 HR. Definitely not typical Kyle Lohse and the reason his ERA has ballooned to over 4. Prior to those games, Lohse had been very good, allowing 4 ERs just once and twice holding his opponent to 0 earned runs. His ERA prior to those last two starts was 1.50 (5 starts) and his control was much better, allowing just 8 walks in 32 innings of work. I’ve seen Lohse when he’s at his best, and tonight he’s overdue for one of those stellar type of performances we’ve become used to seeing.
Braden Looper, who joined the Brewers after playing in St. Louis last year, comes to the game tonight sporting a 4.70 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in seven starts this season. In my opinion, Looper's better days are behind him and I haven't been impressed in any of his last three starts as he allowed 14 ER in just 16 innings of work. The difference between Lohse and Looper, however, is the fact that Looper hasn't really had many dominating performances this year. Early on he did have one start in which he didn't allow a single earned run, but since then he's been more miss than hit.
The Cardinals might not have many of the trends backing them in this one because Milwaukee is one of the hotter teams in baseball right now, but keep in mind St. Louis has won 18 of their last 25 games at home and they are 5-1 in Lohse's last six home starts. Having scored just two runs in the first two games of this series, the Cardinals are way overdue for a big offensive night... and they'll get it tonight to go along with a solid effort from Kyle Lohse.
PITTSBURGH/WASHINGTON OVER --- I've mentioned this before and I'll mention it again... games played in Washington tend to go OVER a lot more than they go UNDER. If you remember correctly, I had the Rockies/Pirates OVER the total a few nights ago as my top play and it didn't disappoint. The Bucs scored 7 runs en route to a 7-4 win despite a two-hour rain delay.
The Pirates might not look like much on paper, but that's why they play the game. They've scored 18 runs in their last two games and will be facing a pitcher that not many have seen. Don't you love it when rookie pitchers come up and face a team that is tearing the cover off the ball? Yeah, me too.
And although PIttsburgh trots out a pitcher who has been pretty solid this year (1.00 WHIP), I'm not too worried about the Washington bats. This team can score in bunches, especially at home, and if you look at how many runs they've been scoring recently, you'd agree with me that the OVER is the easy play.
6, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7, and 8... those are their run totals from the last 8 games and I see no reason why that can't continue tonight. For whatever reason, both of these teams score a lot of runs in Monday games, going a combined 18-5-2 OVER in their last 25. The OVER is also 7-3 in Pittsburgh's last 10 on the road, as a road dog and vs. left-handed pitching. This one's too easy. The OVER is the play tonight.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED---------GL GUYS