Brandon Lang:
15 Dimer VCU
15 Dimer College of Charleston
15 Dimer Arkansas Little Rock
5 Dimer on North Texas
5 Dimer on Niagara,
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15 Dimer VCU - Get off that George Mason-bandwagon. It?s a distant memory from that Cinderella season, and the Patriots are no longer the power team in this conference. Surprise, surprise, it?s VCU ? the regular-season champ ? and tonight we?re going to see it come alive behind two-time Player of the Year Eric Maynor and waltz right into the Big Dance with the automatic bid. It won?t be easy, I believe that, but the Rams have the better overall team. And because we have a player like Maynor on our side, I believe we may be seeing the 2009 version of Davidson right before our very eyes.
The fact is, as much as I am impressed by the Rams, is as dismayed as I am about George Mason?s semi-final struggle with 11th-seeded Towson. Two straight days, and two straight eight-point wins. Quite frankly, I expected more from the Patriots. In the long regular season clash between these two teams, on Jan. 24th, the Rams earned the 76-71 win. That will go a long way tonight in terms of the confidence the Rams will have.
VCU has limited foes to a mere 40 percent shooting from the field, resulting in 63.8 points per game allowed and a scoring margin of better than eight points per game. The pats may bet the defending conference tourney champs, but this is VCU?s year, and I?m laying it with the right side.
15 Dimer College of Charleston - Davidson is out, and the road to the Big Dance now goes through legendary coach Bobby Cremins. I remember his tenacity when he was with Georgia Tech, and now he?s instilled that with the Cougars. Yesterday they shocked the world by negating a nine-point deficit to knock off Stephen Curry and Davidson, and while the Wildcats will be hoping for an at-large bid, the Cougars will make it the old fashioned way ? they?ll earn it.
I don?t trust a Chattanooga team that needed a close 79-78 squeaker over Elon to get it done in the second round, and that certainly doesn?t have the offensive horsepower to overcome Charleston?s defense. The Cougars have won 12 of 21 meetings with Chattanooga in the all-time serie, including an 86-77 decision over the Mocs earlier this season inside this same McKenzie Arena.
Charleston rolls in having covered six of eight ? all in Southern Conference play ? and 11 of 15 against winning teams. And since the Mocs are 1-6 in their last seven in league action, I like the slim chalk here.
15 Dimer Arkansas Little Rock - Interesting game between South Alabama and Ark-Little Rock, and though it might seem as if I am going against the Jaguars because they knocked off Troy last night and ruined my winning day, I honestly wasn?t impressed and would take Troy again if the two played again tonight. USA was the beneficiary of a terrible shooting performance in the second half by the Trojans.
Tonight that won?t be the case against these set of Trojans, who won the West Division of the Sun Belt Conference with a 15-3 mark, and most certainly have the better all-around team ? both offensively and defensively. And when you have a team that virtually manhandled John Calipari?s Memphis Tigers in non-conference play, and you?re a mid-major, you have a team to reckon with.
When Arkansas Little Rock lost 59-51 to Memphis, I called my boy Chris Jordan in Las Vegas and told him personally we would be discussing the Trojans in March and how this team would be battling for the Sun Belt title. Incidentally, he alerted me to Tennessee-Chattanooga in that same conversation. Turns out we were both right with our keen senses on these mid-majors.
The Trojans are on ATS runs of 4-1 against teams with a winning record on the wood, 9-3 in their last 12 as a favorite of no more than 6-1/2 points and 11-4 overall ? all of which were in Sun Belt play. On the flipside, the Jaguars come into this one on a bevy of spread slides, including being 3-7 as an underdog, 4-14 ATS in their last 18 against winning teams, 1-4 after an ATS win, 1-5 when catching points on a neutral court and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall ? all in conference play.
We take it to the betting numbers for these bonus 5-Dimers, because one thing to remember with the postseason, is there is no lying when it comes to true numbers in basketball. They give a true gauge of how a team is playing, and that?s why the betting numbers are good to look at in the conference finals.
For instance, with my 5 Dimer on Niagara, we find the Purple Eagles are on spread streaks of 9-3 when installed as an underdog, 4-1 off an ATS loss, 8-3 in conference play and 13-5 whenever taking on a team that has won more than 60 percent of its games. On the flipside, Siena, the regular-season conference titlist, is mired in ATS skids of 5-13 on an unbiased basketball court and 2-6 when laying chalk on a neutral hardwood.
With my 5 Dimer on North Texas, we see the Mean Green is on ATS runs of 16-3 on a neutral court, 4-1 against winning teams, 20-6 when installed as the pup, 10-3 when catching points on an impartial court and 8-3 overall ? all in Sun Belt play. On the flipside, the Hilltoppers tend to fall flat on their face after a stellar defensive effort, as they?re on a 1-5 ATS skid after giving up less than 50 in their last contest. Let?s play the Mean Green Eagles here, as they roll to the win and cover.
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