Service Plays Memorial Day Monday 5/26/14

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Tampa Bay at Toronto

MLB Handicappers taking a look at Monday's matchup between Toronto and Tampa Bay at the Rogers Center will discover a slew of positive betting numbers in favor of streaking Blue Jays who've won six straight, 11-of-13. Right-hander Drew Hutchison will toe the rubber for John Gibbons' squad bringing a 3-3 record to the hill with a 3.45 ERA. Jays have won back-2-back games with Hutchison as he allowed just one run over 14 2/3 innings of work moving his TSR to a sharp 7-3 in May. Hutchison will be matching pitches with Rays' left-hander Erik Bedard, who has a 2-2 record this season with a 2.63 ERA. Aside from Tampa having lost 2 consecutive with Bedard, what should get the attention of sports handicappers the hurler enters 2-10 his last 19 starts with a horrid 3-16 TSR over the span. Those struggles look minor compared to the team start record the port-sider has compiled recently in any road stadiums (1-10). The most compelling number in Jays’ favor, Bedard heads to the mound with an 0-8 TSR skid vs Toronto. Evidence is the key in making any case, and the numbers above clearly illustrate Toronto is the right choice.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Detroit - Oakland Series

A.L. West Leading Oakland A's arguably the best team in baseball headed north of the border this past weekend ridding an 11-2 stretch crossing 6.23 runs/game while holding opponents to 2.0 runs/per. Running into one of the hottest teams in the league the A's stumbled in Toronto losing all three to the Blue Jays who have now won six consecutive, 11-of-13 on the field.

An up coming four-game series against A.L. Central Leading Detroit Tigers should stop the bleeding. Tigers opening the month of May with a sparkling 12-3 run platting 5.27 runs/game with it's pitching staff holding opponents to 2.47 per/contest have hit a rough spot this past week posting a 1-6 mark scoring 4.4 runs/game with it's hurlers giving up a whopping 8.1 per/game.

Aside from Oakland catching a struggling Detroit team, something else that might make a big difference in the series. The A's have a big chip on their shoulders, Tigers have eliminated A's in ALDS tussles the past two years.

Probable pitchers

Monday: Lefty Tommy Milone (2-3, 3.99 ERA) trades pitches with lefty Drew Smyly (2-2, 2.97 ERA). Milone on a smart 2-0 stretch the past three with a miniscule 1.37 ERA has a 3-1 TSR vs Tigers. Smyly will be making his first career start against A's, who have shelled him in three relief appearances to the tune of a 19.29 ERA.

Tuesday: A's Sonny Gray (5-1, 1.99 ERA) is hooked up against Tigers ace Max Scherzer (6-1, 2.59 ERA). Gray is off an 8 inning 1 run gem but it wasn't enough to earn a victory as A's fell to the Rays in extras. A`s are 1-1 vs Tigers w/Gray. Scherzer coming off his worst start this season giving up 12 hits, 7 runs over 7 innings of work has a 5-3 TSR vs A's.

Wednesday: Scott Kazmir (5-2, 2.56 ERA) gets the call for Oakland with Tigers countering with Anibal Sanchez (2-2, 2.83 ERA). Kazmir's teams have lost 3 of his last 4 vs Detroit and 8 of 13 ( Cle/LAA,TB). Sanchez heads to the mound having won 2 straight and will try to bring his TSR vs Oakland to the .500 mark (2-3 TSR vs A's w/Giants).

Thursday: The finale features Jesse Chavez (4-2, 2.61 ERA) taking on Rick Porcello (7-2, 3.88 ERA). Chavez who has never faced Tigers lost his second of the season in Toronto giving up 8 hits, 4 runs over 5 1/3 innings. Porcello smacked silly last outing gave up 12 hits, 2 Jacks, 8 runs has a 3-5 TSR vs Oakland.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | BALTIMORE at MILWAUKEE
Play On - Any team (BALTIMORE) terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games
114-82 over the last 5 seasons. ( 58.2% | 49.4 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | TEXAS at MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 8-1 (+9.4 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games without a stolen base this season.
The average score was: MINNESOTA (4.7) , OPPONENT (3.3)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | INDIANA at MIAMI
Play On - Any team vs the money line (MIAMI) hot shooting team - 2 straight games making >=50% of their shots against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher
98-58 since 1997. ( 62.8% | 25.0 units )
6-6 this year. ( 50.0% | -10.5 units )

NBA | INDIANA at MIAMI
Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days
42-17 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.2% | 23.3 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.8 units )

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Monday

Nationals -125

Rangers -106

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play MON

Braves -145

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
MONDAY, MAY 26th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________


***** Monday, 5/26/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_____________________________________________________

MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #9
•Scattered Thunderstorms Heading To Target Field: Poor weather is on its way to Minnesota. Mother Nature could throw a wrench into the plans of the Texas Rangers and the Minnesota Twins at Target Field Monday afternoon. Forecasts are calling for scattered thunderstorms all day with a 50 percent chance of precipitation at start time, increasing to 60 percent as the game progresses. Starting pitchers for the game are Nick Tepesch (2-1, 3.09 ERA) for the Rangers and Kevin Correia (2-5, 6.52 ERA) for the Twins. Minnesota is currently a -105 favorite.

•Wind At Citi Field Signals Low Scoring Game: High winds at Citi Field could favor pitchers today. It's looking like the wind will play a significant factor in Monday's matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the New York Mets. Gusts of up to 15 mph are projected to hit The Big Apple by gametime with the wind carrying the ball out to right field. In games when the wind is blowing towards right this season the over/under is 5-10 with an average of 6.46 runs per game. The total for the game is currently at seven. Brandon Cumpton takes the mound for the Pirates (0-1, 4.26 ERA) facing Jacob DeGrom (0-2, 2.77 ERA) of the Mets.

•Marlins Are The Jekyll And Hyde Of Baseball: The Miami Marlins may be one of the most perplexing teams in all of baseball. Miami is 20-7 at Marlins Park, which is the best home record of any team in the Major League Baseball. Then when this team hits the road they turn into their ugly alter ego, going a league-worst 6-17 on the road. The Marlins will host the Washington Nationals Monday.

•Dodgers-Reds Offense Non-Existent In Los Angeles: Runs are hard to come by when the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds clash, especially at Dodgers Stadium. In the past 12 meetings between the Dodgers and Reds, the teams have an over/under record of 1-10-1, including a near five under in the past six in Los Angeles. For added appeal, Reds will be sending ace Johnny Cueto to the mound who has an O/U record of 16-37-3 in his past 56 starts.

•White Sox Have Been Beaten Up By Indians: The Chicago White Sox have not been able to consistently challenge their American League Central rival Cleveland Indians. The White Sox have not won a series against the Indians since Oct. 2012. During that stretch the Sox are an abysmal 5-20 including being outscored 155-92. The White Sox have also failed to top two runs in nine of those games.

•Dodgers' Beckett Pitches First Career No-Hitter: Josh Beckett looked to be in a little bit of trouble when Chase Utley started jogging toward first base with two outs in the ninth inning. Utley thought he had drawn the Philadelphia Phillies' second walk of the inning, but the pitch -- a curveball -- was called strike two. Beckett's next pitch, a fastball, sailed down the middle and froze Utley for the final out, sealing baseball's first no-hitter of the season and a 6-0 victory for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

•Wainwright Earns Eighth Win As Cardinals Defeat Reds: Adam Wainwright is a thinking man's pitcher, constantly making adjustments and experimenting during games to gain an advantage over the hitters. So, after allowing 19 earned runs in 22 innings last season against the Cincinnati Reds, the 31-year-old Wainwright changed things up. And the Reds haven't scored against him since. Wainwright extended his scoreless streak to 20 innings while becoming the National League's first eight-game winner, allowing just five hits in eight innings in the Cardinals' 4-0 victory in the finale of a three-game series Sunday night at Great American Ball Park. St. Louis (28-22) took two of three in the series against Cincinnati, improving to 10-1 in the previous 11 series against the Reds.

Betting Notes - Sunday
•Hot Pitchers
-- DeGrom has a 2.77 RA in two starts, but Mets lost both of them.
-- Roark is 1-1, 2.41 in his last three starts.
-- Samardzija is 0-1, 1.67 in his last four starts.
-- Ross is 2-1, 1.93 in his last four starts. McCarthy is 0-0, 1.29 in his last two starts; Arizona is 1-9 in his starts.
-- Ryu is 3-1, 2.90 in his last five starts. Cueto is 4-1, 2.04 in his last seven.

-- Tomlin is 2-1, 2.89 in his last three starts. Quintana has a 3.20 RA in his last four starts.
-- Milone is 2-0, 1.37 in his last three starts. Smyly is 1-1, 2.70 in his last four.
-- Skaggs is 2-0, 3.86 in his last three starts.
-- Bedard is 2-1, 2.25 in his last five starts. Hutchison is 2-0, 0.61 in his last two starts.

-- Wacha is 1-0, 1.38 in his last two starts. Whitley is 0-0, 1.00 in two starts, but lasted total of only nine innings.
-- Lohse is 2-0, 2.96 in his last four starts.

•Cold Pitchers
-- Cumpton is 0-1, 4.26 in two starts this season.
-- Eovaldi is 1-2, 5.73 in his last four starts.
-- Petit is 0-0, 12.54 in his last couple starts.
-- Kendrick is 0-3, 5.76 in his last four starts. Chacin is 0-3, 4.76 in his four starts this season.

-- Correia is 1-2, 7.36 in his last three starts.
-- Young is 0-2, 6.08 in his last two starts.
-- Martinez is 0-0, 4.50 in three starts this season.
-- Feldman is 0-2, 8.14 in his last four starts. Ventura is 0-3, 4.34 in his last three outings.

-- Santana is 0-2, 8.25 in his last couple starts. Buchholz is 0-2, 8.40 in his last three starts.
-- Tillman is 1-1, 5.96 in his last five starts.

•Totals
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Mets' last nine home games.
-- Seven of last nine Miami road games went over.
-- Seven of last nine Cub games stayed under.
-- Eight of last nine Colorado road games stayed under.
-- Last seven Arizona games stayed under total.
-- Under is 10-4 in last fourteen Cincinnati road games.

-- Last five Texas road games went over the total.
-- Over is 9-4 in White Sox' last thirteen games.
-- Last seven Detroit games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-3-2 in last twelve Angel games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Tampa Bay road games.
-- Nine of last twelve Houston road games stayed under.

-- Under is 16-3-2 in last 21 Atlanta home games.
-- Under is 7-2-2 in last eleven Milwaukee games.
-- Four of last five St Louis home games stayed under.

•Hot Teams
-- Pirates won four of last five games, but are 4-13 in last 17 on road.
-- Giants won five of its last six games.

-- Rangers won four of their last five games.
-- Indians won five of their last seven games.
-- Angels won 12 of their last 16 games.
-- Blue Jays won eight of their last ten games. Tampa Bay won its last four games, all by the bullpen.

-- Braves won five of their last seven games.
-- Brewers won four of its last five home games.
-- Cardinals won nine of their last eleven games. New York is 8-5 in last thirteen road games.

•Cold Teams
-- Mets lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Marlins lost seven of its last ten away games. Washington lost four of its last five games.
-- Cubs lost seven of their last ten road games.
-- Rockies lost five of their last six road games. Philadelphia lost four of their last five games, got no-hit yesterday.
-- Diamondbacks lost 16 of its 22 home games. San Diego lost five of its last seven games overall.
-- Reds lost eight of last eleven road games. Los Angeles is 5-9 in their last 14 home games.

-- Twins lost its last three games, but won six of last eight at home.
-- White Sox lost seven of their last eleven home games.
-- Tigers lost six of its last seven games. Oakland lost its last four games.
-- Mariners are 4-6 in their last ten home games.
-- Royals are 5-8 in its last 13 home games. Houston is 3-12 in last fifteen series openers.

-- Red Sox are on a 10-game losing streak.
-- Orioles lost their last four road games.

Diamond Trends - Monday
•MINNESOTA is 12-3 (+13.1 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games without a stolen base this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.1, OPPONENT 4.1.

•ARIZONA is 24-8 UNDER (+14.9 Units) with an on base percentage of .260 or worse over their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 4.1, OPPONENT 3.7.

•HOUSTON is 38-16 (+23.4 Units) against the run line versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 3.7, OPPONENT 4.2.

•BRANDON MCCARTHY is 5-17 (-15.2 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MCCARTHY 3.0, OPPONENT 4.8.

•JHOULYS CHACIN is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) in road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) since 1997.
The average score was CHACIN 2.2, OPPONENT 3.5.

•KYLE LOHSE is 25-8 (+20.6 Units) against the run line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOHSE 4.6, OPPONENT 3.0.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (OAKLAND) - average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=4.20) (American League), starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings.
(64-19 since 1997.) (77.1%, +37.9 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -137.5
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 3.4 (Average run differential = +2)

The situation's record this season is: (3-0, +3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-6, +5.8 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (25-12, +8.7 units).

•Play On - Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-160 to -115) (TAMPA BAY) - with an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 on the season against opponent with a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 on the season.
(63-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.8%, +41.7 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (42-35 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -152
The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 3.8 (Average run differential = +0.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 42 (54.5% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-7, +11.1 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (481-293, +34.6 units).

•Play Under - Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (CHICAGO CUBS) - below average National League hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (NL).
(61-26 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.1%, +31.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 7.4, Money Line=-113.5
The average score in these games was: Team 3, Opponent 3.4 (Total runs scored = 6.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 50 (58.1% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (10-6, +2.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (41-20, +18.4 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (96-64, +22.6 units).
___________________________________________

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chase Diamond

Texas vs. Minnesota

10* Minnesota Twins

This game has the 25-25 Rangers at the 23-24 Twins. Twins have lost 3 straight but have played tough all year. Rangers are off a emotional underdog straight win last night so emotional letdown is very possible today. Kevin Correia is not having a good year for the Twins but pitched well last time out and with his job on the line and the Twins fully motivated I expect a Twins win tonight. Rangers have Nick Tepesch going for him and he is no Nolan Ryan. Public money is crushing on the Rangers here at a rate of 77% but this line has not moved much.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gordon24

$300 MLB Play - Indians -105

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Shuttlesworth

Texas Rangers -108 Triple Star

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday’s MLB betting cheat sheet: Samardzija seeks first win

Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for Monday’s major league games:

Getting Pushy

The Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates earned a push Sunday afternoon in a 5-2 Washington win. It was the second push of the series, giving both teams seven on the season – tied for second-most in the majors behind only the Atlanta Braves (nine).

Rays a Rare Underdog

The Tampa Bay Rays haven’t been an underdog against Toronto in their last 10 games, but find themselves a +133 longshot entering Monday’s series opener at the Rogers Centre. The teams split those 10 meetings, with the Jays taking two of three in their last encounter in Toronto.

Samardzija Seeking Runs

Chicago Cubs hurler Jeff Samardzija looks for his first win of the season Monday afternoon against the host San Francisco Giants (-135, 7). The Cubs have lost each of Samardzija’s last seven starts despite the ace right-hander allowing just eight earned runs over 47 innings in that span.

Pitching Notes

* Los Angeles Angels right-hander Tyler Skaggs enters Monday’s encounter with the host Seattle Mariners (+123, 7.5) ranked fifth in the majors in money earned ($709) and is 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA in three road starts. Skaggs has also been a strong Over play, going 7-2 O/U on the season.

* Baltimore Orioles righty Chris Tillman was shelled for eight runs in just one inning of work last time out for his first loss against the moneyline in five starts as an underdog so far in 2014. Tillman and the Orioles (+126, 8) open an interleague series in Milwaukee on Monday afternoon.

Hitting Notes

* Atlanta Braves slugger Evan Gattis swatted a pair of home runs in Sunday’s drubbing of the Rockies, giving him 10 for the season. Atlanta is 7-1 S/U and 2-5-1 O/U in games featuring at least one Gattis homer entering Monday’s interleague tilt with visiting Boston (+117, 7).

* New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter had a season-high four hits en route to a 7-1 triumph over the Chicago White Sox on Sunday. Jeter is heating up after a slow start and now has four multi-hit efforts in his last nine games; the Yankees are 2-2 S/U and 2-2 O/U in those contests.

Totals Streak

Colorado Rockies (0-5 O/U): The league’s most vaunted offense has fallen on tough times of late, scoring just six runs over its previous four games. The Rockies capped the subpar stretch with a 7-0 loss at the hands of the Atlanta Braves (-166) on Sunday afternoon.

Prop of the Day

The Giants are +120 underdogs to score the first run of the game against Samardzija and the Cubs, but have been strong in the early going all season. San Francisco leads the majors with a .322 first-inning batting average and have a league-high 38 runs in the opening frame.

Injury Notes

* Diamondbacks second baseman Aaron Hill left Sunday’s game against the New York Mets after fouling a ball off his ankle, and is considered questionable for Monday’s game against visiting San Diego (+110, 8.5). Arizona is 0-8 O/U in the last eight games Hill has played.

* Reds right-hander Mat Latos threw four innings in a rehab start Sunday as he continues his recovery from an elbow injury. Latos, who has yet to throw an inning for Cincinnati this season, went 20-12 against the moneyline and 15-16-1 O/U in 32 starts last year.

Weather Watch

* Turner Field will see wind blowing out to center field at 6 mph for the game between Atlanta and Boston. Teams averaged a paltry 5.5 runs over eight games under similar wind conditions in 2013, well below the stadium average of 7.46..

* Wind at AT&T Park will blow out to center field at 12 mph when the Giants entertain the Cubs. Teams averaged 1.4 home runs in 30 games with the wind blowing out to center at between 10 and 20 mph last season – slightly more than the stadium average of 1.35.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 9:05:a.m. ET Monday

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday’s MLB betting cheat sheet: Samardzija seeks first win

Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for Monday’s major league games:

Getting Pushy

The Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates earned a push Sunday afternoon in a 5-2 Washington win. It was the second push of the series, giving both teams seven on the season – tied for second-most in the majors behind only the Atlanta Braves (nine).

Rays a Rare Underdog

The Tampa Bay Rays haven’t been an underdog against Toronto in their last 10 games, but find themselves a +133 longshot entering Monday’s series opener at the Rogers Centre. The teams split those 10 meetings, with the Jays taking two of three in their last encounter in Toronto.

Samardzija Seeking Runs

Chicago Cubs hurler Jeff Samardzija looks for his first win of the season Monday afternoon against the host San Francisco Giants (-135, 7). The Cubs have lost each of Samardzija’s last seven starts despite the ace right-hander allowing just eight earned runs over 47 innings in that span.

Pitching Notes

* Los Angeles Angels right-hander Tyler Skaggs enters Monday’s encounter with the host Seattle Mariners (+123, 7.5) ranked fifth in the majors in money earned ($709) and is 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA in three road starts. Skaggs has also been a strong Over play, going 7-2 O/U on the season.

* Baltimore Orioles righty Chris Tillman was shelled for eight runs in just one inning of work last time out for his first loss against the moneyline in five starts as an underdog so far in 2014. Tillman and the Orioles (+126, 8) open an interleague series in Milwaukee on Monday afternoon.

Hitting Notes

* Atlanta Braves slugger Evan Gattis swatted a pair of home runs in Sunday’s drubbing of the Rockies, giving him 10 for the season. Atlanta is 7-1 S/U and 2-5-1 O/U in games featuring at least one Gattis homer entering Monday’s interleague tilt with visiting Boston (+117, 7).

* New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter had a season-high four hits en route to a 7-1 triumph over the Chicago White Sox on Sunday. Jeter is heating up after a slow start and now has four multi-hit efforts in his last nine games; the Yankees are 2-2 S/U and 2-2 O/U in those contests.

Totals Streak

Colorado Rockies (0-5 O/U): The league’s most vaunted offense has fallen on tough times of late, scoring just six runs over its previous four games. The Rockies capped the subpar stretch with a 7-0 loss at the hands of the Atlanta Braves (-166) on Sunday afternoon.

Prop of the Day

The Giants are +120 underdogs to score the first run of the game against Samardzija and the Cubs, but have been strong in the early going all season. San Francisco leads the majors with a .322 first-inning batting average and have a league-high 38 runs in the opening frame.

Injury Notes

* Diamondbacks second baseman Aaron Hill left Sunday’s game against the New York Mets after fouling a ball off his ankle, and is considered questionable for Monday’s game against visiting San Diego (+110, 8.5). Arizona is 0-8 O/U in the last eight games Hill has played.

* Reds right-hander Mat Latos threw four innings in a rehab start Sunday as he continues his recovery from an elbow injury. Latos, who has yet to throw an inning for Cincinnati this season, went 20-12 against the moneyline and 15-16-1 O/U in 32 starts last year.

Weather Watch

* Turner Field will see wind blowing out to center field at 6 mph for the game between Atlanta and Boston. Teams averaged a paltry 5.5 runs over eight games under similar wind conditions in 2013, well below the stadium average of 7.46..

* Wind at AT&T Park will blow out to center field at 12 mph when the Giants entertain the Cubs. Teams averaged 1.4 home runs in 30 games with the wind blowing out to center at between 10 and 20 mph last season – slightly more than the stadium average of 1.35.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 9:05:a.m. ET Monday

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

HALL OF FAME PICKS / William Holloway

Toronto Blue Jays(-143)

Atlanta Braves(-128)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

Texas Rangers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Philly Ross

2* Braves/Boston Over 7 runs

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee lost in the NBA Playoffs on Sunday with the Spurs +2.5/Thunder.

"Mr Chalk" lost in MLB in the American League with the Tigers -$185/Rangers.

Ben lee won in soccer on Saturday the one wager ( $25 on Atletico Madrid/Real Madrid 1st half and draw after 90 minn) was a 20-1 winner +$500 the other 4 $25 plays lost. (-$100)

For Memoria Day in the NBA Playoffs E&B like the Heat -6.5/Pacers.

For Memorial Day in MLB in the National League "Mr Chalk" likes the Nationals -$125/Marlins.

Ben lee is 128-153-5 -$2737 through Thirty weeks.

"Mr Chalk" is 22-22 -$559 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

 

[ThirstyDonnie]

Anybody have Cokin? Would be willing to split a month service with someone if anyone would like. Jut DM me.

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 5/26/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________


***** Monday, 5/26/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
___________________________________________________

NBA Playoffs Betting News & Notes
Finding a hot team to ride or a cold team to fade is like striking sports betting oil. StatSystemsSports.net Expert Jude Ravo takes a look at each of the remaining series in the National Basketball Association:

•Indiana Pacers-Miami Heat
Larry Bird used to say that whoever won Game #4 would be in control, and that’s basically where the teams stand right now. The Pacers’ season is on the line Monday night in South Beach, because a loss followed by three straight wins over the defending champs is out of the question. So basically tonight is the Battle of Thermopylae for Indiana. And the Pacers can only look back wistfully at the final quarter of Game #2 at home, when they couldn’t do anything about LeBron James and Dwayne Wade, and the Heat got back into the series after a Game #1 loss.

**Next: Tonight at Indiana (Heat -6.5), O/U 183.5

•Oklahoma City Thunder-San Antonio Spurs
Like Miami, San Antonio can put the screws to the Thunder with a win in Game #4, Tuesday night in Oklahoma City. The Thunder got both Serge Ibaka and some respectability back with a solid win in Game #3 on Sunday night, and the overall good news for OKC is that neither of its lynchpins – Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook – has been forced to play big minutes. Both are averaging in the mid-30s and should have reasonably fresh legs if the games get tighter from here on and they have to play extended minutes. Four of SA’s last five playoff games have gone under as the Spurs tighten the defensive screws.

**Next: Tuesday at Oklahoma City
______________________________

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Eastern Conference Finals

#513 INDIANA @ #514 MIAMI
(TV: 8:30 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Heat -6, Total: 183.5) - The Miami Heat placed the on-off switch firmly in the “on” position to take control of the Eastern Conference finals. The Heat will try to keep their energy at that level and earn a commanding 3-1 lead in the series when they host the Indiana Pacers in Game#4 on Monday evening. The Pacers have appeared to be the dominant team in the series for long stretches in each game but failed to put together the necessary run in the fourth quarter of the last two contests.

The Pacers raced out to a 17-4 lead in the first quarter and were up 15 early in the second in Game #3 before letting Miami up off the mat. “You can’t play around with this team,” Indiana forward Paul George told reporters of the Heat. “I thought we got comfortable at one point early in the game, you know, just being up early. This game is all about runs, and ultimately the team that makes the biggest run or the last run is the team that’s going to win.” That team was Miami with a 12-2 fourth-quarter run to spark Game Two’s 87-83 victory and then a 61-45 advantage over Indiana in the second half of Game #3.

•ABOUT THE PACERS (65-33 SU, 46-51-1 ATS): The concern prior to Game #3 was the health of George, who had to pass concussion protocols before being cleared to play. George never found much of a rhythm offensively while being guarded primarily by LeBron James but still managed to lead the team in scoring with 17 points on 5-of-13 shooting. George was also one of several players dealing with foul trouble. “We didn’t manage our foul trouble well and didn’t manage (the Heat) picking up their defensive intensity well,” coach Frank Vogel told reporters. “I thought we attacked appropriately but didn’t finish plays, and obviously turned it over a little too much and let them get going.”

•ABOUT THE HEAT (64-30 SU, 45-47-2 ATS): Miami got a big boost in the fourth quarter of Game #3 from Ray Allen, who hit four 3-pointers in the period and finished with 16 points. “That’s kind of like my territory,” Allen told reporters. “The flow of the game doesn’t come in my direction early in the game... But in the fourth quarter, if a guy is guarding me and just thinks I’m here biding time, I’m not. I’m just trying to figure out how I can have an impact.” Allen’s strong game came as a compliment to another solid performance from James, who is averaging 24.3 points on 58 percent shooting in the series.

•PREGAME NOTES: The Heat are 6-0 at home during the playoffs.... Indiana C Roy Hibbert grabbed two rebounds in Game #3 after averaging 11 in the first two contests.... Miami F Rashard Lewis made his first appearance of the series with 17 minutes off the bench in Game #3.... The Pacers are 18-32 against the spread (36.0%) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.... The Heat are 52-35 versus the spread (59.7%) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI covered the spread 563 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 413 times. *EDGE against the spread =MIAMI. In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI won the game straight up 703 times, while INDIANA won 275 times. In 1000 simulated games, 551 games went under the total, while 449 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI covered the first half line 519 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 433 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 530 games went under first half total, while 470 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANA is 46-40 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--INDIANA is 46-42 straight up against MIAMI since 1996.
--48 of 88 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--INDIANA is 48-39 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--48 of 87 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Pacers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Pacers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Miami.

--Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Miami.
--Home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
--Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
--Pacers are 0-6 ATS L6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

--Heat are 6-1 ATS L7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
--Over is 6-1 in Heat last 7 games following a ATS win.
--Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games following a S.U. win.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play On - Home teams versus the money line (MIAMI) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making >=50% of their shots against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days.
(49-12 since 1996.) (80.3%, +31.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -145.8
The average score in these games was: Team 104.1, Opponent 95.6 (Average point differential = +8.5)

The situation's record this season is: (4-1, +3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2, +9.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-4, +12.2 units).
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

Boston @ ATLANTA
ATLANTA -1 +116 over Boston

The Red Sox losing streak is now at 10. Over that span they’ve hit .212 while scoring 26 lousy runs. 10 of those runs have occurred in the last two games with five of those coming in one inning on four hits, a hit batter and a walk. To make matters worse, Boston is now without Mike Napoli, which is one of the few offensive threats they had. Clay Buchholz has four dominant starts and four disaster starts in nine games started thus far. However, three of those disaster starts have all come in his last three starts in which he’s allowed 29 hits in 15 innings and failed to make it out of the fifth inning in two of those three. Buchholz has terrible surface stats, as he is 2-4 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.85 WHIP. Buchholz’s 5.77 xERA in May really isn’t much better. He has been a bit unlucky with a 40% hit rate and 68% strand rate but his problems have been much more than bad luck, as his 32% line drive rate over his last five starts will attest to.

After spending an entire offseason looking for a new home, Ervin Santana finally landed in the National League for the first time in his career. He's taking the NL by storm with a 4-2 record and a 3.42 ERA. Though it's too early to draw firm conclusions, Santana is making gains that are worth noting. Santana made huge strides limiting the walks in 2013 with a career-low and that improvement has carried over into this season. Santana's early strikeout rate spike in 2014 is a nice surprise and it's supported by a 13% swinging strike rate but years of average K’s casts doubt he can keep it up. Santana has a nifty BB/K split of 14/48 in 53 innings and he’s also 3-1 at home with an ERA of 3.14. Pitching matchup aside, Boston is a mentally dejected team that is swinging at everything and hitting nothing. Until they show us some life, we’ll continue to fade them and make no exception here.


Texas @ MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA/Texas over 9 +102

The Rangers are coming off a four-game set in Detroit in which they scored 35 runs and won three times. The top five guys in the batting order (Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus, Mitch Moorland, Adrian Beltre and Alex Rios) are all heating up at the same time and that spells big trouble for Kevin Correia. Skills don't get more consistent than Correia’s, as there's little variance in yearly xERA or stats. Unfortunately in his case, that's not a good thing. Correia has a 6.52 ERA and a 5.24 xERA. Over his last five starts his ERA was 7.61 and his xERA was 7.24. At home, Correia is 1-3 with an ERA of 7.62. Prior to his last start in San Diego, Correia was tagged for nine runs by the Red Sox. That was Boston’s last win. His last good month was in April of 2013 and it's as if someone unplugged Correia's good luck machine on May 1, 2013. Since then, on a month-to-month basis, he's had a hit rate no less than 32%, strand rates twice in the 60% range and 4 months of over 20% HR/F’s. Correia’s pitch-to-contact approach minimizes value and his numbers over the years reveals how thin margin for error is.

During a recent rain delay, we were watching Ron Gardenhire talk about Target Field and he said that in the warm weather it’s going to be a hitter’s paradise. He pointed out certain subtle changes to the venue and insisted that “balls are going to fly outta here” in a big way. We made a note of that and will put it to the test here on a warm 80 degrees day in Minnesota. Nicholas Tepesch has made only two starts this season and it came against Seattle and Houston. Had Derek Holland, Matt Harrison and/or Martin Perez not got injured, Tepesch would still be in the minors. Tepesch was a non-roster invitee in 2013 that made club out of spring training and managed 17 starts in his MLB debut. He had a rough 5.52 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at Arlington in 2013, along with league-average skills. Tepesch has a swinging strike rate of 5% so his 12 K’s in 12 innings this season is not supported. He now takes a big step up in class when facing a Twins club that has scored as many runs at home as the Tigers in one less game. We’re expecting some crooked innings from both these offenses here and these two pitchers, especially Correia, figure to oblige.


Colorado @ PHILADELPHIA
Colorado/PHILADELPHIA over 8½ +100

Combined, Jhoulys Chacin and Kyle Kendrick are 0-8 in 13 starts. At Citizens Bank, Kendrick is 0-5 with an ERA of 4.52. Two respectable seasons as a swingman earned Kendrick a full-time rotation spot in 2013. Then he produced an ugly 4.70 ERA and 1.40 WHIP and he’s maintained that this year as a starter with almost identical numbers (4.53 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP). In nine starts, Kendrick is winless so not only is he pitching poorly, but he’s also a frustrated pitcher that has to be feeling the pressure of being dropped from the rotation if things don’t improve. Kendrick teased us with a couple of decent years and a nice uptick in strikeouts in 2012 but there's not much upside in this skill set except that he can take the ball every fifth day. In the end, the weak strikeout numbers, middling xERA and disaster risk all make Kendrick at best an innings eater. Kendrick’s last start in Miami resulted in a 14-5 Marlins victory.

The concerns regarding Chacin’s health and skills keep getting larger. Chacin has spent 126 days on the DL over the past three seasons and spent the first month on it this year. In 23 innings over four starts, he was walked 10 batters and struck out 11. The result is a 1.46 WHIP but that’s not the only warning sign. Chacin’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 37%/28%/36% is one of the worst profiles in the game. In two road starts at hitter friendly AT&T Park in San Fran and Citi Field in New York, Chacin was tagged for 12 hits and seven runs in 10.2 frames. He was also taken yard twice in his last start at San Fran. Chacin’s K rate is way down, his walks are up and it looks like last year’s big September fade and high line-drive % was not an aberration.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ben Burns

MLB

*EARLY* Burns' Memorial Day Breakfast Club Winner! (Perfect L3 Days!)

9* Milwaukee Brewers -130 2:30pm


*HOT SIDE* Burns' 10* MLB Personal Favorite!

10* Kansas City Royals -155 8:10pm