Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Report- Friday
CFB: 2-0 this week (Louisville, Colorado)
8:00 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION
CONNECTICUT -12 over Baylor
The Huskies look to continue their super start to the 2008 season when they host the Bears this Friday night. Baylor opened their season with three straight home matchups, beginning with a 41-13 loss to Wake Forest. They’ve been able to rebound since then with back-to-back wins over Northwestern State and Washington State. The Bears have not beat a non-conference BCS team on the road since 1996, going 0-6 SU during that span, and it certainly won’t be easy here.
Connecticut has won each of their three straight games with wins over Hofstra (35-3), a hard-fought, 12-9 overtime victory over Temple on the road, a 45-10 drumming of Virginia this past weekend.
The Bears' offensive unit relies heavily on QB Robert Griffin, who has been a consistent thrower and is also leading the team on the ground. The Bears' defensive front was much too aggressive for the Cougars this past weekend, as Baylor collected an impressive seven sacks in the win.
Once again the Huskies road the coat tails of Donald Brown last week, as the running back pounded Virginia for 206 yards and three scores. Overall, the Huskies finished with an impressive 382 yards on the ground, while averaging an equally strong 7.2 ypc. Brown has been one of the top backs in the nation to start the year, as the junior has racked up 588 yards and eight touchdowns in just three games. Their has been tremendous play of the team's defensive unit as well, which has limited opponents to a mere 7.3 ppg.
While Baylor is coming on under new head coach Art Briles, they figure to get exposed here on national television.
First, we note that the Huskies are 5-0 ATS (+21.4 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+8.6 ppg) all-time as a favorite in a non-Saturday game, while Baylor is 0-4 SU (-18.5 ppg) & 0-4 ATS (-13.2 ppg) in non-Saturday games when not favored by more than 5 points.
Next, we find Baylor a horrid 0-10 SU (-27.3 ppg) & 0-10 ATS (-12 ppg) as an underdog of 25 points or less, while Connecticut is 6-0 SU (+32.2 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+15.3 ppg) as a favorite of 7½-29½ points since 2004.
Despite a blowout win by the Bears in their last game, database research shows they are not in a strong spot here. Recent non-Saturday underdogs and small favorites have not been able to continue their strong play on the road in recent seasons. Specifically, non-Saturday road teams (not a favorite of more than 4 points) with 6+ days rest off a SU win of 22+ points are 0-8 SU & ATS since 2005, failing to cover the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average.
On the other hand, after a convincing victory and spread win, non-Saturday home favorites have been very tough against opponents not off a conference favorite SU win. This is documented by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a non-Saturday home favorite of 24 points or less off a SU win of 34+ points & ATS win vs. an opponent not off a conference favorite SU win & ATS win/push.
Going all the way back to at least 1980, these teams are a tremendous 16-0 SU & ATS. UConn qualified as the PLAY ON team in 2004 and 2005 and they qualify once again here against Baylor.
We’ll stick with the Huskies before their hometown faithful to maul the visiting Bears.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: CONNECTICUT 37 BAYLOR 17
<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->
