Wunderdog
We finished 1-2 yesterday, giving back a few units. On the week, our MLB picks are hitting 64% (7-4) for +6.3 units. Today we go with three plays.
We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units). Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Minnesota at Tampa Bay (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs +161 (runline) (risk 3 to win 4.8)
The Tampa Bay Rays are still disregarded by the oddsmakers despite putting together one of the best teams in baseball. The Rays are 55-23 at home, and consider the price of this game if it were the Yankees in a similar position. Another overlooked value-added stat is the Rays have pounded right-handed pitching this season to the tune of a 66-40 mark. The Twins have been 0-4 in Nick Blackburn's last four road starts. His last time out on the road he allowed six runs while lasting just four innings against the Orioles. I like the value on the Rays here on the runline.
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Texas (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Angels -101 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3)
The Angels have added value here as the oddsmakers are treating them as a team that has clinched a playoff spot and are just playing out the string. This team has an 18.5 game lead, but has still gone out and won six of their last eight. They are in a race with the Rays who trail the Angels by just two games in the loss column for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This one is chock full of value especially against a mediocre lefthander in Harrison, who enters with a 5+ ERA for the Rangers. The Angels have been a gold mine all season against lefthanders where they have posted a 31-15 mark. The Rangers have really tanked against .500+ teams as they have put up a 3-12 mark in their last 15. I'll back the Angels in this one.
Game: San Francisco at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs +113 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3.4)
When the Dodgers went on an eight-game skid it appeared they would fade out of the NL West race and pack it up at the end of September. Things have dramatically changed as this team has caught fire. The Dodgers have since gone 15-3 and have the offense in high gear, and the pitching has been masterful. The 18-game stretch has shown the Dodgers doubling up their opponents on the scoreboard, outscoring them 103-52. Barry Zito sure has been a free agent bust for the Giants. The $18 million a year investment crashed last season and this season Zito has again disappointed with a 5.49 ERA. The Dodgers’ hot offense should have no trouble plating runs here as they have been a solid investment all season against lefthanders with a 29-19 record. I'll back the Dodgers here on the runline.
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