Hollywood Sports' 25* MLB OVER/UNDER SABERMETRICS SPECIAL (*62%* 54-33 MLB run!)
At 8:10 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals and the Milwaukee Brewers listing both pitchers Craig Stammen and Chris Narveson. Washington (42-54) is heating up with their bats after scoring 22 runs over their last three games. They are hitting .275 against left-handers which should leave them chomping at the bit when traveling to Milwaukee to face the left-handed Narveson. For the year, Narveson is 8-6 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.54 ERA. Narveson is struggling over his last three starts as evidenced by his 9.42 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over that span. Narveson also does decidedly worse at home in Milwaukee this season where he has a 6.12 ERA, 1.64 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .312 as opposed to his 5.58 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .280 opponent's batting average when on the road. The deeper sabermetrics are troubling as well for Narveson. Narveson is giving up a disproportionate amount of extra-base hits as indicated by his high .201 ISO (ISOlated power, slugging pct minus batting avg). Furthermore, Narveson is allowing his opposing hitters to have a high line-drive BABIP (Batting Average for Balls put Into Play) of a high .813 as compared to the .723 National League LD BABIP average at the moment. Line-drives typically are the result of the batter winning the “hitter-versus-pitcher” battle. Batters are finding more than average success in placing their line-drives as base hits against Narveson which indicates hitters have been able to zero-in on him. The Brewers enter this game coming off a 3-2 win in Pittsburgh yesterday -- and Milwaukee (44-53) has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total coming off a win.
Washington sends out Craig Stammen who is 2-4 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.48 WHIP for the season. Like Narveson, Stammen is struggling even worse as of late given his 7.36 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over his last three starts. Stammen is particularly vulnerable on the road where he has a 6.15 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and .205 opponent's batting average as opposed to his 4.94 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .293 opponent's batting average when at home this season. Stammen has also struggled in his two career starts against Milwaukee last season where he had a 6.55 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .311 opponent's batting average in eleven innings of work. And in the Brewers' last 31 games when facing a right-hander, the Over is 20-8-3. Stammen's deeper sabermetrics also spells trouble for him. He has a high .185 ISO which indicates that he is also giving up too many extra-base hits. Not surprisingly then, his LD BABIP of .770 (versus that NL LD BABIP average of .723) is evidence to the fact that hitters have been able to take advantage and place their base-hits against him. Additionally, Stammen has a low ground ball BABIP of .205 as compared to the Nationals' (52-43) overall GB BABIP team mark of .246 which suggests that he has actually experienced some good luck regarding the balls he is allowing into play being hit at his infielders. As this number regresses up towards Washington's team mean, he will be then surrendering even more base hits. Washington enters this game coming off a 7-1 win in Cincinnati -- and they have gone Over the Total in 5 straight games with Stammen on the mound after they scored at least five runs in their previous game. Additionally, in their last 8 games after scoring at least five runs in their previous game, the Nats have continued that momentum by going Over the Total 6 times. Together, these team trends produce our specific 35-11-3 combined winning angle for this situation. 25* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Nationals and the Milwaukee Brewers listing both pitchers Craig Stammen and Chris Narveson. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
