LOGICAL PICK
Pick Today is Florida Marlins.
The game is on at 6:30 PM EST.
58.8 % Win Probability
The sims suggests the line should favor Florida at -146. The fact that the Braves are leading the division may have something to do with this line. This is a very strong play, as the Marlins win just under 60% of the time when they are favored at home.
Over/Under:
Spread:
Moneyline: -110
Pick Today is Florida Marlins.
The game is on at 6:30 PM EST.
58.8 % Win Probability
The sims suggests the line should favor Florida at -146. The fact that the Braves are leading the division may have something to do with this line. This is a very strong play, as the Marlins win just under 60% of the time when they are favored at home.
Over/Under:
Spread:
Moneyline: -110
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 10* (TOP PLAY) OVER in Cleveland vs Tampa Bay @ 7:05 ET: Carmona vs Niemann – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
Play OVER the total in Cleveland as a *10* Top Play selection.
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 8* (Regular Play) OVER in Baltimore vs Minnesota @ 7:05 ET: Guthrie vs Duensing – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
Play OVER the total in Baltimore as an *8* Regular Play selection.
<!-- / message --> <!-- controls -->
Play OVER the total in Cleveland as a *10* Top Play selection.
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB 8* (Regular Play) OVER in Baltimore vs Minnesota @ 7:05 ET: Guthrie vs Duensing – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* on up to 10* so this includes 7* and 8* picks as well. 6*, 7*, 8*: most common play ratings with a 9* being a Top Play! 10* plays are a step above a 9* Top Play. The *10* is Scott's highest rated selection!
Play OVER the total in Baltimore as an *8* Regular Play selection.
<!-- / message --> <!-- controls -->
Ben Burns | MLB Total Fri, 07/23/10 - 10:05 PM
triple-dime bet 927 CWS / 928 OAK Under 7.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: I'm playing on Oakland and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. These teams have seen the UNDER go 13-6-1 the last 20 times that they have faced each other. This figures to be another well-pitched affair.
Given Cahill's commanding stats here, I expect another relatively low-scoring affair. *10
triple-dime bet 927 CWS / 928 OAK Under 7.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: I'm playing on Oakland and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. These teams have seen the UNDER go 13-6-1 the last 20 times that they have faced each other. This figures to be another well-pitched affair.
Given Cahill's commanding stats here, I expect another relatively low-scoring affair. *10
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota –1 –1.07 over BALTIMORE Pinnacle
If you don’t have an account at a book that allows you to lay just one run as oppose to 1½-runs, it’s your call if you want to lay the extra half run. The only thing that prevents us from doing so is that the Twins pitchers and hitters alike have performed much better at Target Field than they have on the road (the result -- a 20-25 mark on the road compared to a 29-20 record at home). Still, we like the fact that the Twins have made a move that was a long time coming. They moved Nick Blackburn to the pen and Brian Duensing into the rotation. Duensing is no stranger to starting and he’s really a legit pitcher. Working out of the pen this season he has stranded 91.1% of inherited runners and has an outstanding BABIP of .241. His GB% is high at 49.6%, his line-drive % is low at 14.8% and so is his FB fate of 35%. This guy has all the skills to be highly successful and the Twins have groomed him very nicely. Duensing’s career numbers, which includes nine starts, are rather impressive that include a 2.98 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. This season his ERA is 1.67, his WHIP is 1.05 and his BAA on the road is 1.71. This guy is ready to make the transition full time. Meanwhile, we all saw the spike in Jeremy Guthrie’s ERA coming. Eroding command says the damage isn't done, and spiking FB% confirms high hr/9 wasn't a fluke. His July numbers say dead arm (15 IP – 23H – 11ER – 3HR- 9BB- 8K) and his BAA against in July is .354 and counting. The Twins could also be inspired by Duensing’s return to the rotation, as playing behind Blackburn was not fun at all and Duensing is an extremely well-liked member of the squad. Everyone is rooting for him. Play: Minnesota –1 –1.07 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
TEXAS –1½ +1.07 over Anaheim Pinnacle
Joe Saunders had a decent stretch of games recently but he’s back to his old, pitiful self and now is the time to take advantage. Saunders decent stretch lasted about six games when he allowed just one earned run in three of those. However, two of those three occurred in Seattle and Oakland, two of the best pitcher parks in the majors. Most recently, however, Saunders faced the Mariners again and the White Sox and surrendered 20 hits combined in 11.2 innings. There are a lot of disturbing numbers surrounding Saunders and one of them is his swing strike percentage of 5.8%. That means exactly what is says…swing and a miss. The major league average is almost double that so Saunders fools very few batters. He also has a high thrown balls percentage of 40.7 and after getting scorched in his last two games, he has to be feeling uneasy about facing the Rangers in this park. A 7.19 ERA against the Rangers in his career sure doesn’t help either. On the other side is C.J. Wilson and his 3.29 ERA and BAA of .206. Wilson is rock solid and dependable. He’s allowed two runs or less in seven of his last nine starts and in the other two he allowed just three runs. In his 19 starts thus far, he’s allowed more than three runs just three times and they all occurred in May. The Rangers should score plenty here while the same can’t be said for the Angels. Play: Texas –1½ +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
<!-- / message --> <!-- controls -->
Minnesota –1 –1.07 over BALTIMORE Pinnacle
If you don’t have an account at a book that allows you to lay just one run as oppose to 1½-runs, it’s your call if you want to lay the extra half run. The only thing that prevents us from doing so is that the Twins pitchers and hitters alike have performed much better at Target Field than they have on the road (the result -- a 20-25 mark on the road compared to a 29-20 record at home). Still, we like the fact that the Twins have made a move that was a long time coming. They moved Nick Blackburn to the pen and Brian Duensing into the rotation. Duensing is no stranger to starting and he’s really a legit pitcher. Working out of the pen this season he has stranded 91.1% of inherited runners and has an outstanding BABIP of .241. His GB% is high at 49.6%, his line-drive % is low at 14.8% and so is his FB fate of 35%. This guy has all the skills to be highly successful and the Twins have groomed him very nicely. Duensing’s career numbers, which includes nine starts, are rather impressive that include a 2.98 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. This season his ERA is 1.67, his WHIP is 1.05 and his BAA on the road is 1.71. This guy is ready to make the transition full time. Meanwhile, we all saw the spike in Jeremy Guthrie’s ERA coming. Eroding command says the damage isn't done, and spiking FB% confirms high hr/9 wasn't a fluke. His July numbers say dead arm (15 IP – 23H – 11ER – 3HR- 9BB- 8K) and his BAA against in July is .354 and counting. The Twins could also be inspired by Duensing’s return to the rotation, as playing behind Blackburn was not fun at all and Duensing is an extremely well-liked member of the squad. Everyone is rooting for him. Play: Minnesota –1 –1.07 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
TEXAS –1½ +1.07 over Anaheim Pinnacle
Joe Saunders had a decent stretch of games recently but he’s back to his old, pitiful self and now is the time to take advantage. Saunders decent stretch lasted about six games when he allowed just one earned run in three of those. However, two of those three occurred in Seattle and Oakland, two of the best pitcher parks in the majors. Most recently, however, Saunders faced the Mariners again and the White Sox and surrendered 20 hits combined in 11.2 innings. There are a lot of disturbing numbers surrounding Saunders and one of them is his swing strike percentage of 5.8%. That means exactly what is says…swing and a miss. The major league average is almost double that so Saunders fools very few batters. He also has a high thrown balls percentage of 40.7 and after getting scorched in his last two games, he has to be feeling uneasy about facing the Rangers in this park. A 7.19 ERA against the Rangers in his career sure doesn’t help either. On the other side is C.J. Wilson and his 3.29 ERA and BAA of .206. Wilson is rock solid and dependable. He’s allowed two runs or less in seven of his last nine starts and in the other two he allowed just three runs. In his 19 starts thus far, he’s allowed more than three runs just three times and they all occurred in May. The Rangers should score plenty here while the same can’t be said for the Angels. Play: Texas –1½ +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
<!-- / message --> <!-- controls -->
