Daily Bobber
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds
Play: Braves -1/2 First Five Innings (+115)
Analysis: Of the three plays today, this is probably the least strong. However, I do still like it very much, I just have strong feelings on the other two. Jair Jurrjens looks to get back on track tonight after a poor showing in his previous outing. Historically, Jurrjens bounces back extremely well from poor outings. After giving up four runs to the Mets earlier this year, he showed up his next start and gave up only one run. This Cincinnati lineup is hitting just .261 against him in 69 lifetime at-bats. Furthermore, this season Jurrjens has a 1.96 ERA in away games, 1.86 ERA at night, and 1.13 ERA versus Cincy. Arroyo takes the mound for the Reds, and has struggled mightily against this Braves lineup, who are hitting .357 with 14 RBI’s in 70 at-bats versus Arroyo. This calculates out to a 6.60 ERA for Arroyo. On the year, Arroyo has a 5.35 ERA at home, 6.61 ERA at night, 8.66 ERA in July, and gave up 5 earned runs in three innings to this Atlanta team earlier in the season. Over the past three seasons, he has a 7.29 ERA versus Atlanta, and 6.39 ERA versus Atlanta at Great American Ballpark. The Braves should be ahead in this one after five innings.
Second Bet
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
Pick: Red Sox Under 4 1/2 Runs (-120)
Analysis: King Felix takes the mound tonight against the powerful Boston Red Sox offense. However, this offense has struggled historically against Hernandez. The projected Red Sox lineup is hitting just .253 with 14 RBI’s in 166 at-bats versus Felix, giving him a very respectable 2.78 ERA in those appearances. Because of Boston’s name, and the perception that they can score 10 runs a game, Vegas has boosted this line all the way up to 4 1/2, hoping the public will still come in strong on the over. This season, Hernandez has a 3.05 ERA in away games, 3.35 ERA at night, 2.78 ERA in July, and 2.57 ERA at Fenway Park. In the past three seasons, Felix has a 2.45 ERA in away games, 2.89 ERA at night, 3.01 ERA in July, 2.91 ERA versus Boston, and a staggering 1.77 ERA versus Boston at Fenway Park. The Red Sox may ding Hernandez for a couple, but look for them to stay under five in this one.
Third Bet
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants
Pick: Brewers Over 3 Runs (-105)
Analysis: As a Giants fan, it always sucks to be on the other side of a line, although betting the run line isn’t quite as bad. Either way, it tells you how much I like this spot for the Brewers. Matt Cain takes the mound tonight against a lineup that has hit him up to the tune of .316 with 12 RBI’s in 76 at-bats. This calculates out to a 5.21 ERA for Cain against this powerful Milwaukee lineup. Earlier this season, Milwaukee knocked Cain around for five runs in six innings. Throw in that Cain has a 3.55 ERA this season in night games, and 3.67 ERA against Milwaukee over the past three seasons, and you realize why the line of three is just too low. Let’s sweep these games tonight, and have some spending money for the weekend! Best of luck, but remember, you’ve got to be good to get lucky.
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds
Play: Braves -1/2 First Five Innings (+115)
Analysis: Of the three plays today, this is probably the least strong. However, I do still like it very much, I just have strong feelings on the other two. Jair Jurrjens looks to get back on track tonight after a poor showing in his previous outing. Historically, Jurrjens bounces back extremely well from poor outings. After giving up four runs to the Mets earlier this year, he showed up his next start and gave up only one run. This Cincinnati lineup is hitting just .261 against him in 69 lifetime at-bats. Furthermore, this season Jurrjens has a 1.96 ERA in away games, 1.86 ERA at night, and 1.13 ERA versus Cincy. Arroyo takes the mound for the Reds, and has struggled mightily against this Braves lineup, who are hitting .357 with 14 RBI’s in 70 at-bats versus Arroyo. This calculates out to a 6.60 ERA for Arroyo. On the year, Arroyo has a 5.35 ERA at home, 6.61 ERA at night, 8.66 ERA in July, and gave up 5 earned runs in three innings to this Atlanta team earlier in the season. Over the past three seasons, he has a 7.29 ERA versus Atlanta, and 6.39 ERA versus Atlanta at Great American Ballpark. The Braves should be ahead in this one after five innings.
Second Bet
Game: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
Pick: Red Sox Under 4 1/2 Runs (-120)
Analysis: King Felix takes the mound tonight against the powerful Boston Red Sox offense. However, this offense has struggled historically against Hernandez. The projected Red Sox lineup is hitting just .253 with 14 RBI’s in 166 at-bats versus Felix, giving him a very respectable 2.78 ERA in those appearances. Because of Boston’s name, and the perception that they can score 10 runs a game, Vegas has boosted this line all the way up to 4 1/2, hoping the public will still come in strong on the over. This season, Hernandez has a 3.05 ERA in away games, 3.35 ERA at night, 2.78 ERA in July, and 2.57 ERA at Fenway Park. In the past three seasons, Felix has a 2.45 ERA in away games, 2.89 ERA at night, 3.01 ERA in July, 2.91 ERA versus Boston, and a staggering 1.77 ERA versus Boston at Fenway Park. The Red Sox may ding Hernandez for a couple, but look for them to stay under five in this one.
Third Bet
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants
Pick: Brewers Over 3 Runs (-105)
Analysis: As a Giants fan, it always sucks to be on the other side of a line, although betting the run line isn’t quite as bad. Either way, it tells you how much I like this spot for the Brewers. Matt Cain takes the mound tonight against a lineup that has hit him up to the tune of .316 with 12 RBI’s in 76 at-bats. This calculates out to a 5.21 ERA for Cain against this powerful Milwaukee lineup. Earlier this season, Milwaukee knocked Cain around for five runs in six innings. Throw in that Cain has a 3.55 ERA this season in night games, and 3.67 ERA against Milwaukee over the past three seasons, and you realize why the line of three is just too low. Let’s sweep these games tonight, and have some spending money for the weekend! Best of luck, but remember, you’ve got to be good to get lucky.
here is the hittingpaydirt Bonus Play of the day.
07/22/2011 DETROIT/MINNESOTA UNDER 8.5 +110
Before going OVER last night, the Twins played over the total in only 2 of their previous 9 games. The starting pitching today may look shaky at first glance, but the Tigers have played OVER in only 1 of Max Scherzer's past 6 starts while the Twins have put together only 1 over in Brian Duensing's past 5 starts. Duensing has two career home starts vs Detroit and has tossed 13 scoreless innings in those two, which both went under. Based on overall #'s, the total and juice have jumped giving us a good spot to take the under at a great price.
07/22/2011 DETROIT/MINNESOTA UNDER 8.5 +110
Before going OVER last night, the Twins played over the total in only 2 of their previous 9 games. The starting pitching today may look shaky at first glance, but the Tigers have played OVER in only 1 of Max Scherzer's past 6 starts while the Twins have put together only 1 over in Brian Duensing's past 5 starts. Duensing has two career home starts vs Detroit and has tossed 13 scoreless innings in those two, which both went under. Based on overall #'s, the total and juice have jumped giving us a good spot to take the under at a great price.
