DUNKEL MLB
Seattle at LA Angels
The Mariners look to build on their 8-3 record in Felix Hernandez' last 11 road starts against teams with a winning record. Seattle is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+115). Here are all of today's picks.
FRIDAY, JULY 16
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST
Game 951-952: Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 14.633; Cubs (Lilly) 15.845
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-125); N/A
Game 953-954: Houston at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Myers) 14.193; Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.484
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Houston (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Under
Game 955-956: Colorado at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 14.526; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.980
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-130); Over
Game 957-958: Washington at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 15.066; Florida (Nolasco) 13.893
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-135); Under
Game 959-960: Milwaukee at Atlanta (7:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Wolf) 13.766; Atlanta (Hanson) 15.129
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-180); Over
Game 961-962: LA Dodgers at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 14.929; St. Louis (Garcia) 16.102
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); Over
Game 963-964: Arizona at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 15.074; San Diego (Garland) 14.682
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100); Under
Game 965-966: NY Mets at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 15.944; San Francisco (Zito) 15.434
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115); Over
Game 967-968: Detroit at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 15.967; Cleveland (Westbrook) 15.097
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-140); Over
Game 969-970: Toronto at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 15.670; Baltimore (Bergesen) 14.718
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-165); Under
Game 971-972: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.972; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 17.516
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-200); Over
Game 973-974: Texas at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 14.996; Boston (Doubront) 14.146
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-130); Over
Game 975-976: Oakland at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gonzalez) 15.201; Kansas City (Greinke) 16.328
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-150); Under
Game 977-978: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 16.849; Minnesota (Liriano) 15.836
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+115); Over
Game 979-980: Seattle at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.039; LA Angels (Weaver) 14.219
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 6
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+115); Under
Seattle at LA Angels
The Mariners look to build on their 8-3 record in Felix Hernandez' last 11 road starts against teams with a winning record. Seattle is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+115). Here are all of today's picks.
FRIDAY, JULY 16
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST
Game 951-952: Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 14.633; Cubs (Lilly) 15.845
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-125); N/A
Game 953-954: Houston at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Myers) 14.193; Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.484
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Houston (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Under
Game 955-956: Colorado at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 14.526; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.980
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-130); Over
Game 957-958: Washington at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 15.066; Florida (Nolasco) 13.893
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-135); Under
Game 959-960: Milwaukee at Atlanta (7:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Wolf) 13.766; Atlanta (Hanson) 15.129
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-180); Over
Game 961-962: LA Dodgers at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 14.929; St. Louis (Garcia) 16.102
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); Over
Game 963-964: Arizona at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 15.074; San Diego (Garland) 14.682
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100); Under
Game 965-966: NY Mets at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 15.944; San Francisco (Zito) 15.434
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115); Over
Game 967-968: Detroit at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 15.967; Cleveland (Westbrook) 15.097
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-140); Over
Game 969-970: Toronto at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 15.670; Baltimore (Bergesen) 14.718
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-165); Under
Game 971-972: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.972; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 17.516
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-200); Over
Game 973-974: Texas at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 14.996; Boston (Doubront) 14.146
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-130); Over
Game 975-976: Oakland at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gonzalez) 15.201; Kansas City (Greinke) 16.328
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-150); Under
Game 977-978: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 16.849; Minnesota (Liriano) 15.836
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+115); Over
Game 979-980: Seattle at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.039; LA Angels (Weaver) 14.219
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 6
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+115); Under
DUNKEL WNBA
Tulsa at San Antonio
The Silver Stars look to take advantage of a Tulsa team that is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games versus teams with a losing SU record. San Antonio is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Silver Stars favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-9). Here are all of today's picks.
FRIDAY, JULY 16
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST
Game 651-652: Atlanta at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 110.649; Indiana 117.597
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 7; 165
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 5; 160 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-5); Over
Game 653-654: Tulsa at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 98.193; San Antonio 108.653
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 10 1/2; 164
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 9; 161
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-9); Over
Game 655-656: Los Angeles at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 107.690; Chicago 117.492
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 10; 146
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 8 1/2; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-8 1/2); Under
Tulsa at San Antonio
The Silver Stars look to take advantage of a Tulsa team that is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games versus teams with a losing SU record. San Antonio is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Silver Stars favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-9). Here are all of today's picks.
FRIDAY, JULY 16
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST
Game 651-652: Atlanta at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 110.649; Indiana 117.597
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 7; 165
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 5; 160 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-5); Over
Game 653-654: Tulsa at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 98.193; San Antonio 108.653
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 10 1/2; 164
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 9; 161
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-9); Over
Game 655-656: Los Angeles at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 107.690; Chicago 117.492
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 10; 146
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 8 1/2; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-8 1/2); Under
FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME
Friday Baseball
100* Play Atlanta (-175) over Milwaukee
Game starts at 7:30 PM EST
Atlanta has won 20 of the last 24 home games as a favorite of -125 to -175 and they have also won 19 of the last 23 home games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs. Tommy Hanson has won 16 of the last 19 games when pitching as a favorite of -125 to -175 and he has also won 6 of the last 7 games when working on 5 or 6 days of rest.
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50* Play NY Yankees (-170) over Tampa Bay
Game starts at 7:10 PM EST
New York has won 8 of the last 9 games and they have also won 17 of the last 20 games coming off seven or more road games. C.C. Sabathia has won 20 of the last 26 home games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he is 6-0 at home this season with an ERA of 2.37.
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50* Play Toronto (-160) over Baltimore
Game starts at 7:00 PM EST
Baltimore has lost 6 consecutive games vs. Toronto and they have also lost 21 of the last 26 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs. Bradley Bergessen has lost 16 of the last 20 games as an underdog of +100 or higher and he is 0-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.11.
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Canadian Football
100* Play Montreal (-5.5) over British Columbia
Game starts at 10:00 PM EST
Friday Baseball
100* Play Atlanta (-175) over Milwaukee
Game starts at 7:30 PM EST
Atlanta has won 20 of the last 24 home games as a favorite of -125 to -175 and they have also won 19 of the last 23 home games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs. Tommy Hanson has won 16 of the last 19 games when pitching as a favorite of -125 to -175 and he has also won 6 of the last 7 games when working on 5 or 6 days of rest.
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50* Play NY Yankees (-170) over Tampa Bay
Game starts at 7:10 PM EST
New York has won 8 of the last 9 games and they have also won 17 of the last 20 games coming off seven or more road games. C.C. Sabathia has won 20 of the last 26 home games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he is 6-0 at home this season with an ERA of 2.37.
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50* Play Toronto (-160) over Baltimore
Game starts at 7:00 PM EST
Baltimore has lost 6 consecutive games vs. Toronto and they have also lost 21 of the last 26 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs. Bradley Bergessen has lost 16 of the last 20 games as an underdog of +100 or higher and he is 0-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.11.
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Canadian Football
100* Play Montreal (-5.5) over British Columbia
Game starts at 10:00 PM EST
HRC PREMIUM MLB ACTION-July 16th
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[969] Toronto |5*|-160|B+0|Network N/A|7:05 pm EST
[976] Kansas City |5*|-150|B+0|Network N/A|8:10 pm EST
[979] Seattle |2*|-190|+1.5 RL|Network N/A|10:05 pm EST
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[969] Toronto |5*|-160|B+0|Network N/A|7:05 pm EST
[976] Kansas City |5*|-150|B+0|Network N/A|8:10 pm EST
[979] Seattle |2*|-190|+1.5 RL|Network N/A|10:05 pm EST
Beatyourbookie
Play Kansas City (-135) over Oakland (POD)
8:10 P.M. EST
Oakland is 1-8 as a road underdog of +125 to +150 this season
Oakland is 3-15 in road games when the total posted is 7.5 runs or less
Zack Greinke is 3-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 2.74
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Play Kansas City (-135) over Oakland (POD)
8:10 P.M. EST
Oakland is 1-8 as a road underdog of +125 to +150 this season
Oakland is 3-15 in road games when the total posted is 7.5 runs or less
Zack Greinke is 3-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 2.74
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SPORTS WAGERS
NY Mets +1.19 over SAN FRANCISCO
Barry Zito continues to falter and that’s the Barry Zito you should get used to seeing as opposed to the one that opened the year with a 1.49 ERA after six starts. Since then, Zito’s ERA has risen to 3.76, which still looks good on paper but that’s all it is. In the last 31 days, his ERA was 5.79 and that includes one of the luckiest performances in years. In his last start in Milwaukee, Zito gave up two runs in 4.2 innings but he also walked six and allowed seven hits. That’s 13 baserunners in 4.2 innings and he’s fortunate he didn’t give up eight runs or even more. Fact is, Zito is still flashing the same mediocre stuff that says he can't get out of trouble and that hasn't changed despite what his ERA would suggest. Meanwhile, Jonathon Niese is the Mets hottest pitcher and it’s no fluke. This guy has a wicked curve and a nasty cutter. Over the last seven starts, Niese is 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA and a high GB % is one of the reason’s he’s been so good. Niese has allowed one run or less in four of his past seven starts and he also displays strong control, having walked just 28 batters and whiffing 73 in 89 frames. Zito and the Giants favored over Niese and the Mets is an overlay that should not be overlooked. Play: NY Mets +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +1.24 over CINCINNATI
We get some outstanding value here on Jason Hammel against Bronson Arroyo and Arroyo’s misleading 9-4 record. First, Hammel is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game and that’s because he gets very little recognition pitching in the shadows of Ublado Jiminez. Fact is, The Rocks have won eight of Hammels’ last nine starts and the only game they lost over that span was in Boston. Hammel has allowed two runs or less in seven of those nine starts with six of those starts coming at hitter friendly Coors. He has one of the best groundball percentages in the business and that should bode well at this park. Hammel got off to a shaky start and therefore his surface stats look average when in fact, he’s anything but. The man can pitch, period. In 53 innings at home, Arroyo has walked 23 and struck out 24. Arroyo has also had the luxury of some favorable match-ups, as he’s faced the Mets in New York, Chicago at Wrigley with the wind blowing in, Cleveland (twice), Oakland, the Pirates three times, San Diego and Houston. His proven 200-IP track record has some value, but mediocre skills, persistent carpal tunnel (wrist) discomfort raise the risk. If you wager on Arroyo here, you’re overpaying big time. Play: Colorado +1.24 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona +1.00 over SAN DIEGO
Another sweet line here, as Jon Garland should never be favored over Dan Haren’s ERA on the year is higher than Garland’s and that’s a complete mirage, as Haren pitches in a tough park while Garland pitches in a park that could make Ernest Borgnine look good. Pay no attention whatsoever to Haren’s 4.36 ERA. Instead focus on an xERA of 3.22 and again, that’s at a tough hitter’s park. Haren has elite control with skills to match. He can dominate a line-up and chances are at this park, that’s precisely what will occur. Garland’s record and ERA are seriously out of whack with his skills. The ERA sure looks sweet, but beware - xERA indicates that he’s not pitched that well. Hit % and strand rate are making his season but the correction in his numbers has already begun to take place and they’ll be even higher as the season progresses. Garland is about as hittable and mediocre of a pitcher as there is in the big leagues and again, the fact that he’s favored over an elite pitcher like Haren is ludicrous. Play Arizona +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
Winnipeg +3½ over HAMILTON
There’s lots of pressure on the TiCats here, as they’re in position to open the year 0-3 and likely 0-4 with the Als on deck. What’s interesting is that the TiCats opened the year in Winnipeg and were a three-point choice and just two weeks later they’re just a half point higher at home. Still, Hamilton has loads of problems with the most notable being that Kevin Glenn is getting hit more often than a MMA fighter and that is going to take its toll at some point. The Ticats have not been able to run the ball or refuse to run and that, too, has to change. Frankly, the Ticats biggest threat has been the punt and kickoff returns and that’s a difficult way to live. Winnipeg is not void of trouble either. Losing at home as an 11½-point favorite is disturbing to say the least. Allowing the pedestrian Argo offense to rack up 36 points is also disturbing. However, Buck Pierce looks good and when he’s not finding an open receiver, he can run like the wind. He’s averaging over 14 yards a carry thus far on is own and that has to be a huge concern for the host. The Blue Bombers absolutely have to get better on special teams and that flaw could hurt them big in this one. Still, taking back points appears to be a lot more appealing than laying them and if the TiCats don’t get off to a good start the booing will begin and the pressure will heighten. Play Winnipeg +3½ (No wager).
B.C. LIONS +5½ over Montreal
The Als are 1-1 and frankly, they’re fortunate they’re not 0-2. The Als defense has looked very shaky and its offense hasn’t been that sharp either, despite what the numbers say. Furthermore, the Als will play its third consecutive game on the road to open the season and will also play its second game in five days. They stayed out west, much like the Stamps stayed East and we all saw the negative effect it had on Calgary in Toronto. It’s also worth noting that the Als always have trouble playing in British Columbia and this situation does not favor them at all. Against the Riders in week one, the Als had 198 less total yards than Saskatchewan and even last week they were outgained by 103 yards. By contrast, and although they were whacked by 19 points against the Riders last week, the Lions were outgained by just 34 yards. Its defense has looked pretty good thus far and now they’ll have the luxury of playing consecutive home games. Montreal are the champs and they’re considered to be one of two elite teams in this league. However, they may not be as good as advertised and when you wager on them you’re paying a premium to do so. This one should be very close indeed and a Lions win would not surprise us one bit. Play: B.C. Lions +5½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
NY Mets +1.19 over SAN FRANCISCO
Barry Zito continues to falter and that’s the Barry Zito you should get used to seeing as opposed to the one that opened the year with a 1.49 ERA after six starts. Since then, Zito’s ERA has risen to 3.76, which still looks good on paper but that’s all it is. In the last 31 days, his ERA was 5.79 and that includes one of the luckiest performances in years. In his last start in Milwaukee, Zito gave up two runs in 4.2 innings but he also walked six and allowed seven hits. That’s 13 baserunners in 4.2 innings and he’s fortunate he didn’t give up eight runs or even more. Fact is, Zito is still flashing the same mediocre stuff that says he can't get out of trouble and that hasn't changed despite what his ERA would suggest. Meanwhile, Jonathon Niese is the Mets hottest pitcher and it’s no fluke. This guy has a wicked curve and a nasty cutter. Over the last seven starts, Niese is 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA and a high GB % is one of the reason’s he’s been so good. Niese has allowed one run or less in four of his past seven starts and he also displays strong control, having walked just 28 batters and whiffing 73 in 89 frames. Zito and the Giants favored over Niese and the Mets is an overlay that should not be overlooked. Play: NY Mets +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +1.24 over CINCINNATI
We get some outstanding value here on Jason Hammel against Bronson Arroyo and Arroyo’s misleading 9-4 record. First, Hammel is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game and that’s because he gets very little recognition pitching in the shadows of Ublado Jiminez. Fact is, The Rocks have won eight of Hammels’ last nine starts and the only game they lost over that span was in Boston. Hammel has allowed two runs or less in seven of those nine starts with six of those starts coming at hitter friendly Coors. He has one of the best groundball percentages in the business and that should bode well at this park. Hammel got off to a shaky start and therefore his surface stats look average when in fact, he’s anything but. The man can pitch, period. In 53 innings at home, Arroyo has walked 23 and struck out 24. Arroyo has also had the luxury of some favorable match-ups, as he’s faced the Mets in New York, Chicago at Wrigley with the wind blowing in, Cleveland (twice), Oakland, the Pirates three times, San Diego and Houston. His proven 200-IP track record has some value, but mediocre skills, persistent carpal tunnel (wrist) discomfort raise the risk. If you wager on Arroyo here, you’re overpaying big time. Play: Colorado +1.24 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona +1.00 over SAN DIEGO
Another sweet line here, as Jon Garland should never be favored over Dan Haren’s ERA on the year is higher than Garland’s and that’s a complete mirage, as Haren pitches in a tough park while Garland pitches in a park that could make Ernest Borgnine look good. Pay no attention whatsoever to Haren’s 4.36 ERA. Instead focus on an xERA of 3.22 and again, that’s at a tough hitter’s park. Haren has elite control with skills to match. He can dominate a line-up and chances are at this park, that’s precisely what will occur. Garland’s record and ERA are seriously out of whack with his skills. The ERA sure looks sweet, but beware - xERA indicates that he’s not pitched that well. Hit % and strand rate are making his season but the correction in his numbers has already begun to take place and they’ll be even higher as the season progresses. Garland is about as hittable and mediocre of a pitcher as there is in the big leagues and again, the fact that he’s favored over an elite pitcher like Haren is ludicrous. Play Arizona +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
Winnipeg +3½ over HAMILTON
There’s lots of pressure on the TiCats here, as they’re in position to open the year 0-3 and likely 0-4 with the Als on deck. What’s interesting is that the TiCats opened the year in Winnipeg and were a three-point choice and just two weeks later they’re just a half point higher at home. Still, Hamilton has loads of problems with the most notable being that Kevin Glenn is getting hit more often than a MMA fighter and that is going to take its toll at some point. The Ticats have not been able to run the ball or refuse to run and that, too, has to change. Frankly, the Ticats biggest threat has been the punt and kickoff returns and that’s a difficult way to live. Winnipeg is not void of trouble either. Losing at home as an 11½-point favorite is disturbing to say the least. Allowing the pedestrian Argo offense to rack up 36 points is also disturbing. However, Buck Pierce looks good and when he’s not finding an open receiver, he can run like the wind. He’s averaging over 14 yards a carry thus far on is own and that has to be a huge concern for the host. The Blue Bombers absolutely have to get better on special teams and that flaw could hurt them big in this one. Still, taking back points appears to be a lot more appealing than laying them and if the TiCats don’t get off to a good start the booing will begin and the pressure will heighten. Play Winnipeg +3½ (No wager).
B.C. LIONS +5½ over Montreal
The Als are 1-1 and frankly, they’re fortunate they’re not 0-2. The Als defense has looked very shaky and its offense hasn’t been that sharp either, despite what the numbers say. Furthermore, the Als will play its third consecutive game on the road to open the season and will also play its second game in five days. They stayed out west, much like the Stamps stayed East and we all saw the negative effect it had on Calgary in Toronto. It’s also worth noting that the Als always have trouble playing in British Columbia and this situation does not favor them at all. Against the Riders in week one, the Als had 198 less total yards than Saskatchewan and even last week they were outgained by 103 yards. By contrast, and although they were whacked by 19 points against the Riders last week, the Lions were outgained by just 34 yards. Its defense has looked pretty good thus far and now they’ll have the luxury of playing consecutive home games. Montreal are the champs and they’re considered to be one of two elite teams in this league. However, they may not be as good as advertised and when you wager on them you’re paying a premium to do so. This one should be very close indeed and a Lions win would not surprise us one bit. Play: B.C. Lions +5½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Wunderdog
MONMOUTH PARK Race #1 at 2:10 PM Eastern
Top pick: #12 (THELOVETREE) - Lightly-raced three-year-old showed a much improved race last out when he was dropped down in price by trainer Greg Sacco. Colt raced just off the pace, made a bid in mid-streth and finished a close-up third. Can win this with a slight improvement.
2nd pick: #10 (Daring Diamond ) - Gelding raced wide and evenly last out and was 3 1/2 lengths behind the top choice. Lightly raced and improving, he'll be making his third start back off a long layoff. Contender.
3rd pick: #9 (Mo's Cutter ) - He rallied to finish second here at this level and distance June 4, then tired last out after racing close-up in a two-turn contest. Cuts-back and is a win threat.
4th pick: #5 (Mr. Billy n Mr. S.) - Has strong early speed and last out held on to the place spot in a solid effort. He faces other speed today and will need to finish a bit better.
MONMOUTH PARK Race #1 at 2:10 PM Eastern
Top pick: #12 (THELOVETREE) - Lightly-raced three-year-old showed a much improved race last out when he was dropped down in price by trainer Greg Sacco. Colt raced just off the pace, made a bid in mid-streth and finished a close-up third. Can win this with a slight improvement.
2nd pick: #10 (Daring Diamond ) - Gelding raced wide and evenly last out and was 3 1/2 lengths behind the top choice. Lightly raced and improving, he'll be making his third start back off a long layoff. Contender.
3rd pick: #9 (Mo's Cutter ) - He rallied to finish second here at this level and distance June 4, then tired last out after racing close-up in a two-turn contest. Cuts-back and is a win threat.
4th pick: #5 (Mr. Billy n Mr. S.) - Has strong early speed and last out held on to the place spot in a solid effort. He faces other speed today and will need to finish a bit better.
Wunderdog
Game: Washington at Florida (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Washington -120 (moneyline)
One thing is becoming pretty certain for the Nats and that is they have a genuine top of the rotation pitcher in Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg has worked a total of 42.2 innings with 61 strikeouts, so he is definitely a plus stuff pitcher. That works out to almost 13 K's per nine innings, while his ERA is a stingy 2.32. The Marlins are one of a handful of teams with a losing record at home, and that has led to a very poor 10-27 mark when posted as a home dog. I like Washington in this one.
Game: Washington at Florida (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Washington -120 (moneyline)
One thing is becoming pretty certain for the Nats and that is they have a genuine top of the rotation pitcher in Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg has worked a total of 42.2 innings with 61 strikeouts, so he is definitely a plus stuff pitcher. That works out to almost 13 K's per nine innings, while his ERA is a stingy 2.32. The Marlins are one of a handful of teams with a losing record at home, and that has led to a very poor 10-27 mark when posted as a home dog. I like Washington in this one.
