HARRY BONDI Bonus Play
MLB
BOSTON (+120) over Detroit
7:05 p.m. ET
Boston is not playing very good baseball right now and hasn’t for most of the season. But the one situation where the defending World Champs have thrived is versus left-handed starters, where they have gone 13-8 while averaging 4.7 runs per game. That doesn’t bode well for Detroit starter Drew Smyly, who has a 7.71 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 22 hits and four home runs in 14 innings of work. We like Boston’s young starter Rubby De La Rosa, who was impressive in his first start earlier this week and will have the benefit of facing a struggling Detroit line-up for the first time. Tigers woes continue as the Sox break through for a much-needed win
MLB
BOSTON (+120) over Detroit
7:05 p.m. ET
Boston is not playing very good baseball right now and hasn’t for most of the season. But the one situation where the defending World Champs have thrived is versus left-handed starters, where they have gone 13-8 while averaging 4.7 runs per game. That doesn’t bode well for Detroit starter Drew Smyly, who has a 7.71 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 22 hits and four home runs in 14 innings of work. We like Boston’s young starter Rubby De La Rosa, who was impressive in his first start earlier this week and will have the benefit of facing a struggling Detroit line-up for the first time. Tigers woes continue as the Sox break through for a much-needed win
SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS 273-215-12 YTD 4-2 Yesterday
Bonus Play: Boston vs Detroit Over 8
Friday 6/6 Service Plays
We got what we wanted yesterday!! Winning day #6 out of 7 days!!! After winning with the Spurs last night that gives us an impressive 7-2 record on our last 9 NBA Playoff plays!! Let's keep this going and get another big night tonight!! We also have a 5* play locked and loaded for tomorrow!!!
MLB
Milwaukee -120
LA Dodgers RL -1.5 +120
Atlanta RL -1.5 +130
LA Angels RL -1.5 +105
OC Dooley
2 Units Under 7½ Milwaukee Brewers/Pittsburgh Pirates
The oddsmakers have made a loud statement casting a very low total even though rookie Brandon Cumpton in his most recent Pittsburgh start was torched to the tune of TEN earned runs allowed last Saturday. One of the reasons for the low spot is that Cumpton who is one of the Pirates highest-rated pitching prospects had posted a decent ERA (3.38) in the prior three trips to the mound. In addition Milwaukee’s Kyle Lohse has been the most consistent hurler in the rotation producing QUALITY outings in 10 of 12 overall mound assignments. The “intangible” to this pick surrounds the fact that despite rumors to the contrary Pittsburgh has NOT promoted uber-prospect Gregory Polanco (.351 average with 6 homers, 48 RBI and 14 steals) to the major league level as the organization continues to shelter the home fans to what will be a long term solution in rightfield. Like many small market squads Pittsburgh is delaying Polanco’s arrival to save money as baseball’s Super Two status kicks in later this month
2 Units Under 7½ Milwaukee Brewers/Pittsburgh Pirates
The oddsmakers have made a loud statement casting a very low total even though rookie Brandon Cumpton in his most recent Pittsburgh start was torched to the tune of TEN earned runs allowed last Saturday. One of the reasons for the low spot is that Cumpton who is one of the Pirates highest-rated pitching prospects had posted a decent ERA (3.38) in the prior three trips to the mound. In addition Milwaukee’s Kyle Lohse has been the most consistent hurler in the rotation producing QUALITY outings in 10 of 12 overall mound assignments. The “intangible” to this pick surrounds the fact that despite rumors to the contrary Pittsburgh has NOT promoted uber-prospect Gregory Polanco (.351 average with 6 homers, 48 RBI and 14 steals) to the major league level as the organization continues to shelter the home fans to what will be a long term solution in rightfield. Like many small market squads Pittsburgh is delaying Polanco’s arrival to save money as baseball’s Super Two status kicks in later this month
Larry Ness' 10* Pitching Mismatch G.O.M. (100% winning spot TY!)
My 10* Pitching Mismatch Game of the Month (NL) is on the Atl Braves at 9:40 ET.
Arizona batted .403 with seven HRs and 32 runs scored while sweeping a three-game series at Colorado (Tuesday-Thursday), pounding out 18 hits in Thursday's 12-7 win. That's clearly the good news but there is plenty of bad news on tap as the D'backs return to Chase Field to open a three-game series with the Braves. Where do I start?
I'll begin with Atlanta's starting pitcher tonight. Julio Teheran is a modest 5-3 in 12 starts but the Braves are 9-3 in those starts and with GOOD reason. There can little doubt that he's among the best pitchers in MLB, if pitching numbers are any indicator of such. He's allowed just 58 hits in 83.2 innings with a 66-20 KW ratio and a 1.83 ERA. His WHIP is 0.93 and opponents are batting just .195 against him.
That surely bodes well for Atlanta, as while the D'backs have played well on the road this season (see that just-completed sweep at Coors Field), they are MLB's worst home team in 2014, going 9-22 (minus-$1,544) while allowing 5.29 RPG. The Braves have often struggled at the plate in 2014 but facing Brandon McCarthy should cure that problem.
McCarthy began his career back in 2005 with the White Sox. He had 53 appearances in 2006 but only TWO were starts. However, since that time all but ONE of his 110 appearances from 2007 through 2013 (pitching for Texas, Oakland and Arizona) have been starts. Note that his record heading into 2014 was a very journeyman-like 42-50 (4.10 ERA).
He's made 12 starts for Arizona here in 2014, entering this contest 1-7 (team is 2-10). His ERA is 5.20 on the season but it's his night starts which really throw up a red flag. While he owns a 2.88 ERA in five day starts, he's been just AWFUL "under the lights!" He's allowed 55 hits over 38.1 innings in seven night starts, posting a 1.64 WHIP and a 7.28 ERA. Any surprise he's 0-5 and the team 0-7 (a 100% "go-against" situation) in those contests?
The Braves have won SIX consecutive season series against the D'backs and are 25-15 against them since the start of 2008. Expect Teheran to get them a win here over McCarthy, putting them in good position to take a SEVENTH straight series.
Good luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 10* Oddsmaker's Error G.O.M. (42-22 all 10*s since May 1))
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Month (NL) is on the Mil Brewers at 7:05 ET.
Kyle Lohse is 7-1 with a 2.60 ERA in 12 starts here in 2014 (Brewers are 9-3). He is in his second season with Milwaukee and after losing to Atlanta in his first start of 2014, he had gone 6-0 with a 2.54 ERA, with Milwaukee winning eight of those nine outings. Lohse had allowed three runs or less in ALL 10 starts in 2014, prior to taking the mound Memorial Day vs the Orioles. He allowed season highs of four runs and nine hits over 6.2 innings against Baltimore but he was still in line for a victory until a blown save in the ninth cost him a win!
Lohse bounced back from that "bad outing" in style, as he comes off his finest outing of the season, a three-hit shutout of the Chicago Cubs this past Sunday. He walked none and struck out six in his first complete game of the year, a 9-0 victory for his SEVENTH straight winning decision since losing that season debut April 1.
The Pirates had won FIVE of six before losing 3-2 at San Diego on Wednesday, which capped a 10-game road trip (Pittsburgh finished 6-4). The Pirates have won EIGHT of their last 11 at PNC Park and will send Brandon Cumpton to the mound. He limited the Mets to one earned run over six innings of a 5-3 road victory on Memorial Day, after being recalled from Triple-A in place of Wandy Rodriguez. Cumpton went 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA in six appearances (five starts) last year and this marks the SEVENTH time since the start of last season Cumpton's been recalled from the minors.
That kind of back-and-forth is not easy to deal with and it should not come as a surprise that he's yet to remain on the big league roster for more than two consecutive starts (he's 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA in three starts in 2014, with Pittsburgh going 1-2). He made a second straight start last Saturday at LA vs the Dodgers and was just BRUTAL, lasting just 3.2 innings while allowing 11 runs (10 earned ) on 11 hits in a 12-2 loss!
He now makes a THIRD consecutive start but do you want any part of him or the Pirates here, up against the Brewers and Lohse? I sure don't. It was a magical season for the Pirates in 2013, ending just over two decades of losing seasons by going 94-68 (note: Pittsburgh owned MLB's 2nd-best moneyline mark at +$2,342) and earning the team's first playoff berth (and winning season) since 1992. Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati in the wild card game and then took St Louis to six games in the NLDS. However, last season seems 'light years' away at the moment.
The Pirates are just 28-31 on the season (rank 21st vs the moneyline at minus-$436), seven games out in the NL Central. Leading the NL Central (by five games over the Cards), are the Brewers, who have rebounded from a 74-88 season in 2013, when they finished 23 games out of 1st-place. Milwaukee is 36-25 and ranks 3rd vs the moneyline (plus-$1,008) with most of the team's profit coming on the road (17-12, plus-$800).
Lohse is unbeaten since his first start of 2014 (he's 7-0 and the team 9-2) and checks in at 11-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 21 carer starts vs Pittsburgh. He's already beaten the Pirates twice during his current unbeaten streak, posting a 1.20 ERA and permitting just 11 baserunners in 15 innings with 14 strikeouts. It's also worth noting that Lohse has won SIX consecutive decisions vs Pittsburgh dating back to August 2011 and that the Brewers have won EIGHT of 10 meetings here in 2014 vs the Pirates.
This price is bargain and the play is on Milwaukee.
My 10* Pitching Mismatch Game of the Month (NL) is on the Atl Braves at 9:40 ET.
Arizona batted .403 with seven HRs and 32 runs scored while sweeping a three-game series at Colorado (Tuesday-Thursday), pounding out 18 hits in Thursday's 12-7 win. That's clearly the good news but there is plenty of bad news on tap as the D'backs return to Chase Field to open a three-game series with the Braves. Where do I start?
I'll begin with Atlanta's starting pitcher tonight. Julio Teheran is a modest 5-3 in 12 starts but the Braves are 9-3 in those starts and with GOOD reason. There can little doubt that he's among the best pitchers in MLB, if pitching numbers are any indicator of such. He's allowed just 58 hits in 83.2 innings with a 66-20 KW ratio and a 1.83 ERA. His WHIP is 0.93 and opponents are batting just .195 against him.
That surely bodes well for Atlanta, as while the D'backs have played well on the road this season (see that just-completed sweep at Coors Field), they are MLB's worst home team in 2014, going 9-22 (minus-$1,544) while allowing 5.29 RPG. The Braves have often struggled at the plate in 2014 but facing Brandon McCarthy should cure that problem.
McCarthy began his career back in 2005 with the White Sox. He had 53 appearances in 2006 but only TWO were starts. However, since that time all but ONE of his 110 appearances from 2007 through 2013 (pitching for Texas, Oakland and Arizona) have been starts. Note that his record heading into 2014 was a very journeyman-like 42-50 (4.10 ERA).
He's made 12 starts for Arizona here in 2014, entering this contest 1-7 (team is 2-10). His ERA is 5.20 on the season but it's his night starts which really throw up a red flag. While he owns a 2.88 ERA in five day starts, he's been just AWFUL "under the lights!" He's allowed 55 hits over 38.1 innings in seven night starts, posting a 1.64 WHIP and a 7.28 ERA. Any surprise he's 0-5 and the team 0-7 (a 100% "go-against" situation) in those contests?
The Braves have won SIX consecutive season series against the D'backs and are 25-15 against them since the start of 2008. Expect Teheran to get them a win here over McCarthy, putting them in good position to take a SEVENTH straight series.
Good luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 10* Oddsmaker's Error G.O.M. (42-22 all 10*s since May 1))
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Month (NL) is on the Mil Brewers at 7:05 ET.
Kyle Lohse is 7-1 with a 2.60 ERA in 12 starts here in 2014 (Brewers are 9-3). He is in his second season with Milwaukee and after losing to Atlanta in his first start of 2014, he had gone 6-0 with a 2.54 ERA, with Milwaukee winning eight of those nine outings. Lohse had allowed three runs or less in ALL 10 starts in 2014, prior to taking the mound Memorial Day vs the Orioles. He allowed season highs of four runs and nine hits over 6.2 innings against Baltimore but he was still in line for a victory until a blown save in the ninth cost him a win!
Lohse bounced back from that "bad outing" in style, as he comes off his finest outing of the season, a three-hit shutout of the Chicago Cubs this past Sunday. He walked none and struck out six in his first complete game of the year, a 9-0 victory for his SEVENTH straight winning decision since losing that season debut April 1.
The Pirates had won FIVE of six before losing 3-2 at San Diego on Wednesday, which capped a 10-game road trip (Pittsburgh finished 6-4). The Pirates have won EIGHT of their last 11 at PNC Park and will send Brandon Cumpton to the mound. He limited the Mets to one earned run over six innings of a 5-3 road victory on Memorial Day, after being recalled from Triple-A in place of Wandy Rodriguez. Cumpton went 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA in six appearances (five starts) last year and this marks the SEVENTH time since the start of last season Cumpton's been recalled from the minors.
That kind of back-and-forth is not easy to deal with and it should not come as a surprise that he's yet to remain on the big league roster for more than two consecutive starts (he's 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA in three starts in 2014, with Pittsburgh going 1-2). He made a second straight start last Saturday at LA vs the Dodgers and was just BRUTAL, lasting just 3.2 innings while allowing 11 runs (10 earned ) on 11 hits in a 12-2 loss!
He now makes a THIRD consecutive start but do you want any part of him or the Pirates here, up against the Brewers and Lohse? I sure don't. It was a magical season for the Pirates in 2013, ending just over two decades of losing seasons by going 94-68 (note: Pittsburgh owned MLB's 2nd-best moneyline mark at +$2,342) and earning the team's first playoff berth (and winning season) since 1992. Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati in the wild card game and then took St Louis to six games in the NLDS. However, last season seems 'light years' away at the moment.
The Pirates are just 28-31 on the season (rank 21st vs the moneyline at minus-$436), seven games out in the NL Central. Leading the NL Central (by five games over the Cards), are the Brewers, who have rebounded from a 74-88 season in 2013, when they finished 23 games out of 1st-place. Milwaukee is 36-25 and ranks 3rd vs the moneyline (plus-$1,008) with most of the team's profit coming on the road (17-12, plus-$800).
Lohse is unbeaten since his first start of 2014 (he's 7-0 and the team 9-2) and checks in at 11-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 21 carer starts vs Pittsburgh. He's already beaten the Pirates twice during his current unbeaten streak, posting a 1.20 ERA and permitting just 11 baserunners in 15 innings with 14 strikeouts. It's also worth noting that Lohse has won SIX consecutive decisions vs Pittsburgh dating back to August 2011 and that the Brewers have won EIGHT of 10 meetings here in 2014 vs the Pirates.
This price is bargain and the play is on Milwaukee.
