MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews
LAS VEGAS -- It’s a rare scene when baseball’s perennial heavyweights, the New York Yankees, find themselves flying under the radar, but that’s exactly what’s going on in the Bronx. At least that was the case before they completed a three-game sweep of the AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday – marking the Jays’ 16th straight loss at Yankee Stadium.
Since opening June with four-straight losses, the Yankees have won nine of 13 to slide past Baltimore into second-place in the division, and are now only 1.5 games behind Toronto. The Jays’ problems began before the Yankees series, and they have now lost nine of their past 12.
Baltimore has been up and down, and who knows when – or if – Boston will wake up from their World Series hangover. So the Yankees appear to have as good a chance as anyone to win the division, maybe better. They are currently listed at 20-to-1 odds by the LVH SuperBook to win their 28th World Series trophy.
Can you imagine what a story it would be to have Derek Jeter’s farewell tour extend into the playoffs? Or better yet, sending him off into the sunset with his sixth ring?
Jeter has been a major part of the Yanks’ recent surge, hitting .405 as they've gone 7-2 over their last nine games. Brett Gardner, right in front of Jeter in the lineup, has hit .361 during the nine-game stretch with a team-leading three home runs in June, and both have been setting the table for a Yankees lineup that is finally in tact.
Jacoby Ellsbury has been everything as advertised for the Yankees since they brought him over from Boston during the offseason; he hits for power, steals bases (20) and plays a great centerfield. Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira are back in the lineup, and this new version of the Yankees is looking very exciting.
The big question for the Yankees is whether their starting pitching can hold up for the next three months. If healthy, the offense looks like it will be there, but pitching is another story, or at least four of the five days in the rotation.
Every fifth day, it’s almost a guarantee that Masahiro Tanaka (11-1, 1.99 ERA) is going to win. He’s vaulted up the ratings chart, now considered one of the elite pitchers in baseball, right up there with Clayton Kershaw. Those insane numbers from the 2013 season in Japan (24-0, 1.27) were no joke, and he’s been almost as dominant on this side of the Pacific – the Yankees have won 12 of his 14 starts (+8.8 unit profit).
If the Yankees make the postseason and Tanaka continues his quality performances, he’s not only looking at Rookie of the Year honors and a Cy Young, he’s also looking at an MVP award.
The Yankees rotation was supposed to be one of their strengths coming into the season with C.C. Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova and Hiroki Kuroda, and Tanaka coming in as the third starter. But injuries changed that plan quickly, and they’ve struggled to find the right mix while getting some of the younger pitchers acclimated to the big leagues.
One of the young pitchers who has surprised has been 25-year-old rookie right-hander Chase Whitley (3-0, 2.56). He's given up two runs or less in six of his seven starts. The Yankees are 6-1 behind him, and he’s currently on a roll of winning his past three starts. For bettors, his +5.5 units of profit on the season is 12th best among all starters.
So now the Yankees appear to have a great shot of winning at least two out of every five days. An 18-3 record behind two starters is amazing stuff!
In order to really crash the AL East party at the top, though, the Yankees need Kuroda (4-5, 4.32) to take his game up a notch. They have lost his past three starts, but to be fair to him, the lineup scored only four runs combined in the three losses. He has actually pitched fairly well, allowing three earned runs or less in five of his last six starts. And with the way the top of the lineup is getting on base, he figures to get more support than he has recently.
Kuroda gets a chance to extend the Yankees’ three-game winning streak tonight against those pesky Orioles, who just seem to keep hovering around striking distance in the division. Kuroda is a -129 favorite over Ubaldo Jimenez (2-8, 4.86), who is 0-4 with a 5.00 ERA in his last seven starts. This isn’t what Baltimore had bargained for when they paid him $50 million before the season. Baltimore could be 3-11 behind any pitcher for the league minimum salary.
Jimenez has been draining bettors’ pockets all season (-7.6 units), and things don’t look to get any better tonight. Kuroda and Jimenez hooked up against each other in the Bronx on April 7, where Kuroda was posted at a higher price, -135, than he is tonight. The Yankees won, 4-2, with Jimenez giving up all four runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. In Jimenez’s last four starts against the Yankees, he’s 0-4 with an 8.10 ERA.
Look for the Yankees to win tonight and keep their roll going, and while at the bet window, you may want to inquire about the Yankees’ future odds, too. They could be a trade for a starter away from becoming a division-winning club. And once in the playoffs, with all the Jeter hype, the Yankees will have their battle cry and plenty of motivation to send the Captain out a champ. It might sound like a fairly tale, but Jeter’s career has been filled with magical moments, and an ending like that would be appropriate.
Friday selections:
Yankees (Kuroda) -129 vs. Orioles
Pirates (Morton) -123 at Cubs
Brewers/Rockies OVER 10.5 (-110)
