STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NL PITCHING REPORT
FRIDAY, JUNE 20TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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#951 PITTSBURGH @ #952 CHICAGO CUBS - 4:05 PM ET
•Pirates RH Charlie Morton (4-7, 3.09 ERA, WHIP: 1.237) - Morton has a 2.37 ERA with 22 strikeouts over 19 innings in his last three turns, including an 8-6 victory at Miami on Saturday when he yielded two runs in seven innings. The 30-year-old New Jersey native won his last start against Chicago after allowing one run while striking out seven in a 6-2 victory June 9 following a pair of no-decisions. Morton, who is 1-3 with a 5.94 ERA in six starts at Wrigley Field, has struggled against Starlin Castro (11-for-24, two homers, six RBIs).
•Cubs RH Edwin Jackson (4-7, 5.11 ERA, WHIP: 1.500) - Jackson was roughed up in a 7-4 loss at Philadelphia on Saturday when he yielded seven runs (six earned) and eight hits in 4 2/3 innings - his fifth consecutive non-quality start. The 30-year-old lost his last start against Pittsburgh on June 9 after allowing four runs while striking out eight in six innings following a pair of no-decisions. Jackson, who is 6-3 with a 3.82 ERA in 13 starts against the Pirates, has trouble with McCutchen (12-for-26, three homers, nine RBIs, six walks) and Marte (8-for-17).
--KEY STAT: JACKSON is 11-27 (-18.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was JACKSON 3.5, OPPONENT 5.0.
--JACKSON is 16-32 (-16.3 Units) against the money line versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was JACKSON 3.9, OPPONENT 5.1.
--JACKSON is 10-25 (-14.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was JACKSON 3.1, OPPONENT 4.2.
--JACKSON is 9-24 (-15.0 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was JACKSON 3.6, OPPONENT 5.1.
--JACKSON is 12-23 against the run line (-18.1 Units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was JACKSON 4.4, OPPONENT 5.5.
--JACKSON is 11-21 against the run line (-17.2 Units) versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was JACKSON 4.0, OPPONENT 5.3.
--JACKSON is 0-8 against the run line (-10.6 Units) after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was JACKSON 2.5, OPPONENT 5.0.
#953 ATLANTA @ #954 WASHINGTON - 7:05 PM ET
•Braves LH Mike Minor (2-4, 4.42 ERA, WHIP: 1.509) - Minor has allowed 11 hits in each of his past two starts but earned no-decisions in each one, allowing three earned runs in five innings in his last outing Sunday against the Los Angeles Angels. He gave up eight runs in four innings at Colorado five days earlier and has not won since beating the Brewers on May 19. Minor has surrendered nine homers in 53 innings and the league is batting .296 against the 26-year-old.
•Nationals RH Stephen Strasburg (6-5, 3.06 ERA, WHIP: 1.213) - Strasburg’s three-start winning streak ended Saturday at St. Louis after he allowed three earned runs on seven hits in 6 2/3 innings in his 90th career outing. He only struck out five Cardinals after fanning 27 in 19 innings across victories over Texas, Philadelphia and San Francisco. Strasburg is 3-5 against Atlanta all time, giving up six runs (three earned) in 4 1/3 innings in a loss April 5.
--KEY STAT: STRASBURG is 9-24 against the run line (-17.8 Units) when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was STRASBURG 3.6, OPPONENT 3.7.
--STRASBURG is 11-3 OVER (+8.2 Units) versus an National League team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was STRASBURG 4.4, OPPONENT 4.2.
--STRASBURG is 9-1 OVER (+8.1 Units) in home games versus National League teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was STRASBURG 4.5, OPPONENT 4.2.
#955 NY METS @ #956 MIAMI - 7:10 PM ET
•Mets RH Daisuke Matsuzaka (3-0, 2.81 ERA, WHIP: 1.247) - Matsuzaka went one inning in his last start after exiting with a stomach issue but came back to toss a scoreless frame in relief at St. Louis on Tuesday. He has made only four starts in his 21 appearances this season and the best one came against Milwaukee on June 10, when he permitted one run on three hits over six innings. He had a rocky relief outing at the Marlins on May 5, giving up three runs and not retiring a batter.
--KEY STAT: MATSUZAKA is 36-20 OVER (+15.3 Units) against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was MATSUZAKA 5.3, OPPONENT 5.5.
•Marlins RH Henderson Alvarez (3-3, 2.56 ERA, WHIP: 1.284) - Henderson gave the Marlins a scare when he strained his left hip at the Chicago Cubs on June 8, but he bounced back to hold Pittsburgh to two runs over seven innings last time out. Alvarez, who has inherited the role of ace following Jose Fernandez's injury, is 1-0 in his last five starts despite giving up three runs in that span. His last outing against the Mets was a game: a six-hit shutout at home on May 6.
--KEY STAT: ALVAREZ is 6-0 (+6.3 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was ALVAREZ 3.8, OPPONENT 1.5.
--ALVAREZ is 11-2 against the run line (+10.2 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was ALVAREZ 4.0, OPPONENT 3.1.
--ALVAREZ is 11-2 against the run line (+10.2 Units) when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was ALVAREZ 4.1, OPPONENT 3.3.
#957 PHILADELPHIA @ #958 ST LOUIS - 8:15 PM ET
•Phillies RH A.J. Burnett (4-6, 4.17 ERA, WHIP: 1.400) - Burnett suffered his fifth setback in seven decisions despite allowing three runs in eight innings against the Chicago Cubs on Sunday. The 37-year-old did not permit a walk in that outing, but has issued 43 free passes in 95 innings this season. Burnett was blitzed in his last encounter versus St. Louis, yielding seven runs on six hits in two innings to fall to 8-6 in his career versus the Cardinals.
--KEY STAT: BURNETT is 18-42 (-27.1 Units) against the money line in road games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was BURNETT 3.5, OPPONENT 4.5.
--BURNETT is 11-35 (-25.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7.5 or less since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was BURNETT 3.1, OPPONENT 5.2.
--BURNETT is 54-84 (-33.4 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was BURNETT 4.1, OPPONENT 4.7.
--BURNETT is 51-87 against the run line (-42.6 Units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was BURNETT 4.2, OPPONENT 4.5.
--BURNETT is 26-40 against the run line (-27.0 Units) in road games versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was BURNETT 4.2, OPPONENT 4.9.
--BURNETT is 10-2 OVER (+8.2 Units) in road games versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was BURNETT 4.3, OPPONENT 6.8.
--BURNETT is 11-1 UNDER (+10.0 Units) in road games after a game where he did not walk a batter since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was BURNETT 2.1, OPPONENT 4.0.
•Cardinals LH Jaime Garcia (3-0, 3.72 ERA, WHIP: 0.957) - Garcia recorded his second strong seven-inning outing to pick up the victory against Washington on Sunday. After scattering three hits en route to a shutout versus Toronto on June 8, the 27-year-old allowed one run on five hits and struck out six against the Nationals. Garcia permitted eight runs on nine hits in three innings in his last outing versus the Phillies, falling to 2-3 in his career against Philadelphia.
#959 MILWAUKEE @ #960 COLORADO - 8:40 PM ET
•Brewers RH Marco Estrada (5-4, 4.82 ERA, WHIP: 1.238) - Estrada lost his second straight start after allowing five runs and eight hits in five innings of a 13-4 loss to Cincinnati on Sunday. "I think I just tried way too hard and that's what happens," the 30-year-old Mexican told reporters. "....Mentally, I'm strong right now - stronger than I have been. I dealt with some stuff but I'm feeling better now mentally and physically." Estrada, who has a 1.24 WHIP, has yielded at least one home run in all but one of his 13 starts this season.
--KEY STAT: ESTRADA is 22-7 OVER (+14.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ESTRADA 5.2, OPPONENT 5.2.
•Rockies RH Christian Bergman (0-1, 3.75 ERA, WHIP: 1.250) - Bergman allowed three runs and eight hits in six innings of Colorado's 5-4 victory at San Francisco on Saturday. “He’s been impressive,” Rockies manager Walt Weiss told the Glendale (Calif.) News-Press about the 26-year-old California native. “He’s got a lot of composure for a young kid. The way that he handles himself is way beyond his experience level.” Bergman, who lost to Atlanta 3-1 on June 9, faces his third consecutive first-place team at the time of his start.
#961 SAN FRANCISCO @ #962 ARIZONA - 9:40 PM ET
•Giants RH Tim Lincecum (5-4, 4.81 ERA, WHIP: 1.474) - Lincecum has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, but he has not gone past six innings in six straight turns and is coming off a no-decision, permitting two runs in six innings versus Colorado. He's had a pair of clunkers in his last two road starts, giving up 12 runs in 8 1/3 innings combined. Lincecum has no answers for Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt, who is 13-for-24 with seven homers and 17 RBIs against him.
--KEY STAT: LINCECUM is 5-16 (-13.2 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LINCECUM 2.7, OPPONENT 4.7.
--LINCECUM is 17-6 OVER (+10.8 Units) in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LINCECUM 5.8, OPPONENT 5.2.
--LINCECUM is 23-11 OVER (+12.4 Units) versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LINCECUM 4.5, OPPONENT 4.6.
--LINCECUM is 20-6 OVER (+14.0 Units) as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LINCECUM 4.6, OPPONENT 4.9.
--LINCECUM is 32-12 OVER (+20.2 Units) when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LINCECUM 4.3, OPPONENT 5.1.
--LINCECUM is 21-4 OVER (+17.1 Units) on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LINCECUM 5.0, OPPONENT 5.5.
•Diamondbacks RH Josh Collmenter (4-4, 4.05 ERA, WHIP: 1.213) - Collmenter has hit a rut following a three-start winning streak, losing back-to-back outings and surrendering 14 runs (13 earned) and 24 hits over 18 innings in his last three turns. The 28-year-old Michigan native was roughed up for a season-high six runs in a 6-4 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers last time out. Collmenter made three relief appearances against the Giants earlier this season, giving up one run and four hits over seven innings.
--KEY STAT: COLLMENTER is 12-3 OVER (+9.1 Units) in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was COLLMENTER 5.9, OPPONENT 5.1.
#963 LA DODGERS @ #964 SAN DIEGO - 10:10 PM ET
•Dodgers RH Dan Haren (7-4, 3.54 ERA, WHIP: 1.251) - Haren turned in his best outing in his season debut at San Diego on April 2, permitting only an unearned run on four hits over six innings to improve to 6-4 lifetime versus the Padres. Haren will be seeking to win his third consecutive start but needs to do a better job of keeping the ball in the park. The 33-year-old has surrendered at least one home run (10) totals in his past seven outings.
--KEY STAT: HAREN is 4-14 (-15.3 Units) against the money line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAREN 3.1, OPPONENT 5.5.
--HAREN is 5-15 (-15.0 Units) against the money line versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAREN 3.4, OPPONENT 5.2.
--HAREN is 3-12 (-12.1 Units) against the money line after a game where he did not walk a batter over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAREN 2.8, OPPONENT 5.8.
--HAREN is 9-22 against the run line (-15.3 Units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAREN 3.3, OPPONENT 5.3.
--HAREN is 3-12 against the run line (-11.4 Units) after a game where he did not walk a batter over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAREN 2.8, OPPONENT 5.8.
--HAREN is 19-6 OVER (+12.7 Units) in road games in June games since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAREN 5.3, OPPONENT 4.9.
•Padres RH Ian Kennedy (5-8, 3.72 ERA, WHIP: 1.174) - There was a school of thought that former 21-game winner Kennedy would thrive in spacious Petco Park, but he lost his first five decisions at home this season, including a 3-2 defeat to the Dodgers on April 1. Kennedy started to turn things around by winning his last two at home but is coming off back-to-back losses at Philadelphia and New York, allowing eight runs in 12 1/3 innings. He is 5-5 in 12 career starts versus Los Angeles.
--KEY STAT: KENNEDY is 4-13 (-9.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KENNEDY 3.5, OPPONENT 4.1.
--KENNEDY is 7-17 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KENNEDY 4.1, OPPONENT 4.6.
--KENNEDY is 8-20 against the run line (-14.7 Units) versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KENNEDY 3.5, OPPONENT 4.4.
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