jeff benton friday
1-0 yesterday winner with Orlando +15 dimes...overall, 31-38-3 MINUS 75 dimes since i started posting.
Friday's Action 20 Dime: SAN ANTONIO SPURS
5 Dime: CINCINNATI REDS ... NOTE: List Homer Bailey as Cincinnati's starting pitcher. If Bailey does NOT start, this play is VOID!
Spurs
I got burned by going against Phoenix in Game 2. But that’s not stopping me from doing the exact same thing in Game 3. The fact of the matter is the San Antonio outplayed the Suns in many respects on Wednesday, with one big exception: The Spurs were whistled for a ridiculous 31 fouls – hardly a surprise when you realize that old-man Joey Crawford was one of the whistle-wielders, and he’s the biggest “homer” ref in the NBA. Those 31 Spurs fouls contributed to 37 free throws for the Suns (29 of which they made). By comparison, San Antonio got to the foul line just 22 times (making just 15).
It doesn’t take a math wizard to see that the Suns outscored the Spurs by 14 points at the charity stripe, which is how you win a game by eight points when you get outshot 50.6 percent to 42.4 percent. And it wasn’t just the number of fouls that killed the Spurs in Game 2, it was who accumulated them and when. Get this: Tim Duncan picked up his fourth foul with 9½ minutes to play in the third quarter, forcing him to the bench for an extended stretch when he otherwise would’ve been on the court (he finished with five fouls); George Hill, who had strong shooting night, fouled out; and Manu Ginobili (who went just 2-for-8 from the field) was tagged with five fouls.
Suffice it say, with San Antonio back in its own building tonight, there’s no doubt in my mind that the shoe will be on the other foot tonight and the Spurs will be the beneficiaries of some hometown calls. Regardless, you KNOW the Spurs’ crowd will be well-lathered tonight, just as they were in helping their team to three victories over the Mavericks in the opening round.
Yes, Phoenix has now won three straight against San Antonio by margins of 11, 9 and 8 points. However, all three of those games were played in the desert. In fact, the home team has held serve in this rivalry in six straight meetings (going 5-1 ATS). Also, get this: These teams squared off in the postseason in 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2008. And in all four series, the Spurs took Game 3 – including three double-digit wins – en route to winning the series.
Despite failing to cover in the first two games, the Spurs are on still ATS runs of 12-3-1 as a favorite, 14-6 in this price range (5 to 10½ points) and an impressive 21-6-3 as a favorite in the playoffs.
Bottom line: I still believe the Spurs are the better team in this series, and after falling apart in the fourth quarter in Games 1 and 2 in Phoenix, I expect San Antonio – guided by veteran leaders like Duncan, Parker and Ginobili – to play a full 48 minutes tonight and play with more passion and intensity than they have in any game this postseason.
The Spurs get back in this series by winning and winning BIG, something in the neighborhood of 113-91. Lay the chalk with complete and total confidence.
Reds
The Chicago Cubs are coming off a series in Pittsburgh where they got swept by the lowly Pirates and scored a grand total of 5 runs in the process, including last night’s ugly 11-1 loss. The same Pirates who in their previous home series got swept by the Brewers and outscored 36-1.
Think about that: Facing two division rivals at home, the Pirates got dumped 36-1 in one three-game series, but swept the other one by a combined score of 18-5.
If that doesn’t tell you what a disaster the Cubs are, I don’t know what would. And the reason Chicago is struggling is it can’t hit. Their #3 and #4 hitters – Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez – are batting .217 and .148, respectively. In the Pirates’ series, Ramirez went 1-for-11; Lee was 2-for-11. And if you take last week’s four-game series at Wrigley Field – where the wind was howling out to left and center field which contributed greatly to scores of 13-5, 11-5, 7-5 and 10-5 – here are the Cubs’ recent run totals: 1, 2, 2, 2, 1. In fact, Chicago has tallied four runs or fewer in 15 of 29 games, scoring three runs or fewer 13 times.
As for the Reds, they’ve been playing decent ball, winning seven of their last 10 games, including taking two of three against the surging Mets this week, with both wins coming in walk-off fashion in extra innings. That’s been a trend this year for Cincinnati, which has had a flair for the dramatic with nine of its 13 wins coming in its final at-bat. That includes two wins over the Cubs in a season-opening series in Cincinnati last month.
Regarding the pitching matchup tonight, I know the stats show the edge goes to Carlos Silva (2-0, 2.90 ERA) over Homer Bailey (0-1, 6.04). But those numbers are skewed a bit because it’s still early in the season. There’s little chance Bailey’s ERA will stay north of 5.00, let alone 6.00. And there’s NO chance Silva (5-18, 6.81 ERA last two years with Seattle) is a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher. He’s going to have a correction, and we started to see it in his last start Saturday when he gave up five runs in five innings to Arizona.
The Reds are 6-2 in Bailey’s last eight starts, 5-0 in his last five at home and they’ve won both of his career home outings against Chicago, including that 5-4 win on April 9 when Bailey also matched up against Silva. Dirt cheap price on Cincy here!
